They are at 227 million with 12 guys under contract. If they add 2-3 more minimums that brings them to about 230-235 million. Jrue Holiday makes 32 million. So trading him drops them to about 200-205 million. Second apron is 207 million.
I am only seeing 11 signed for next season (Brown, Tatum, Holiday, Porzingis, White, Hauser, Pritchard, Scheierman, Tillman, Queta, and Walsh), with 4 FAs (Horford, Kornet, Craig, and Davison). Am I missing someone? Spotrac has the 11 contracts at about $225.5M, so we aren't far off on that. You have the 2nd apron at $207M (Spotrac says $207.8M), that looks about right.
But the key to understand is that this does not include Horford or Kornet (not Craig and Davison either, but that is less important). If we were to trade Holiday and replace him with a min or a rookie, that would be still 11 players and maybe we are down to $196M or something. Can we hope to get Horford for say $5M?, that gets us to 12 players and $201. A min contract for the 13th roster spot would be about $2.5M. Kornet is probably not going to take that, but that gets us to $204M by my math.
For 2026-27, we have more flexibility. Porzingis, White, Pritchard are all FAs, plus Horford and Kornet again. Maybe all those guys agree to sign for less to make a run for a forth straight title. Or more likely, this is where the owners start to make major adjustments.