Re-posted from another thread:
I'm now convinced there won't be a trade until the offseason. The 2 best potential offers- Boston and NYK both need until the offseason (Boston for the Rose Rule and NYK to see where the pick lands). The Pels weren't moving too fast before this KP trade and now that 2 offers could both be way better than LA, I really don't see a deal happening.
the problem for NY though is this...why give up your potential number 1 draft pick and hold him for 5 yrs potentially 8 for a rental of one yr of AD?..because if no superstar comes to NY next yr, then AD will leave in 2020, which frankly makes them stink again and lose Zion in the process ( assuming of course they get the number 1 pick).
I see the same problem. That outcome would be so incredibly bad that even Orlando would feel proud about their accomplishments the last 6 years.
Because James Dolan is just that bad. Or at least he might be. And he could delude himself into thinking KD is coming. Part of the problem with NYK and even NO to an extent is you can’t really rely on them being 100% logical. In the Knicks case, even remotely competent.
Also the Knicks don't have to trade for Davis first.
Due to the July moratorium, the Knicks will be able to talk to Durant before the C's could complete a trade. So theoretically, they could pitch Durant (or Kyrie) with "if you sign, we'll immediately trade Zion for AD."
That eliminates the risk of them trading away Zion without signing any of the marquee free agents.
Not sure that this is accurate, as once Kyrie opts out of the final year of his contract the Rose Rule should no longer apply, no?
What part do you not think is accurate?
The July moratorium exists. Teams can't make trades or sign free agents during this time.
CBA Faq:105. What is the July Moratorium?
It is a "negotiation" period during early July in which teams may not sign most free agents or make trades. Teams may negotiate with free agents beginning July 1, but they have to wait until the Moratorium ends before signing a contract. Any verbal agreements that are struck during the Moratorium are still characterized as negotiations, do not count toward team salary, and are not binding on either party. Since these agreements are not official or binding, either side may back out, with no repurcssions1.
Once Kyrie opts out, Rose rule will no longer apply starting July 1, but the earliest the C's can officially make a trade won't be until 12pm on July 6 (actually probably a couple of days later since July 6 falls on a Saturday, maybe even a month later if the deal involves signing-and-trading picks).
Knicks on the other hand can meet with Durant on July 1 and tell Durant they have a trade in place with the Pelicans for Davis that they'll execute if he signs. Durant agrees to sign with Knicks, so Knicks pull the trigger on the prearranged trade sending Zion to the Pelicans for Davis. These moves will then become official after July 6.
The Knicks definitely have time to get an agreement from a free agent first before trading away the #1 pick. Of course, Danny could try to play hardball and get the Pelicans to publicly agree to a trade before July 1, but which can't be officially completed until after the moratorium (similar to how Pierce/KG trade was announced June 28, but wasn't officially completed until Jul 12), saying something like the C's deal is off the table once July 1 rolls around, but Danny probably doesn't have much leverage to do that (not like he's going to ship those assets out in another trade if the Pelicans don't agree right away). All this of course assumes the Pelicans prefer a potential Knicks deal (#1 pick Zion) to whatever the C's are offering (Tatum + others + picks).