Author Topic: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?  (Read 69624 times)

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Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #195 on: August 10, 2010, 06:27:29 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Issue Number 1: Just because Houston was left with the lesser of the two alternatives to choose from and decided to make that their choice doesn't mean that the decision was a close decision to make. They experienced Artest and didn't want him back. That does not mean that they upgraded the position in deciding to sign Ariza. On the contrary, given what each player had done in their career, what each player did last year and what each player would be expected to produce further, Houston got the worse player.

Issue Number 2: Regarding BBIQ, it is not something that can be measured with statistics or causes stats to go up dramatically. What a higher BBIQ will do cause a player to know who best to throw an outlet pass to to start a break. It will make a player know when to take the open shot and when to seek the extra pass. It will cause a player to time a switch properly to take a charge. It will make a player play defense on a one on two break properly and how to find the right slot to run on the break. It will tell a player when to make that chest pass and when to make that bounce pass. It will cause a player to learn to use the rim as an aide from getting your shot blocked and when to pass out of a double team. BBIQ, much like ability to play one on one defense is not a measurable item and if you have two players that have near identical stats, always give the nod to the one with the higher BBIQ, that is the player you want on your team because they make everyone else better players.


I think in your above post and other people who talk a lot about Bball IQ in general vastly overrate how important it is and want it both ways: BBall IQ is really important but doesn't show up in stats, and is possessed by whomever I say it is. The argument is that BBall IQ makes the team better on offense and defense, but such improvement doesn't show up in team stats of offensive or defensive efficiency. I instead argue that BBall IQ is, like length, strength, leaping ability, and court vision, a way to try to explain how a given player creates the results on the court that he does. Your team doesn't get 2 extra points per game because someone says "hey, Player X scored 8 points today but he has a high bball IQ worth 2 extra points," your team gets those 8 points because Player X, with his natural abilities would have scored 6 but, with his Bball IQ figured out how to get his 8. Perhaps BBall IQ would not drastically affect points, FG%, and rebounds...though it really seems like it would, especially FG%, which is a major Davis flaw. Wouldn't a smart player take more shots he can make? Your other examples would absolutely show up in team stats though. Making the correct pass should either avoid a turnover (measurable) or lead to more efficient team offense (measurable). Learning to use the rim is a means to a MEASURED end (FG% and/or %shots blocked). So is passing out of a double team (FG% and avoiding TO's and improved team offense). So are charges (Team defense numbers). However, by essentially all of the above measures, Maxiell has been the better pro. You are picking examples of HOW results are achieved, and actively placing more value on hand-picked ways of arriving at results instead of just looking at which results are better.

For example, let's say there are 2 different players who are exactly identical. Only one difference: player A can jump higher and player B is more creative minded. However, everyone agrees they are exactly identical defenders and rebounders. The main area of contention is offense. Player A has no moves. But he's a powerful leaper with a so-so jump shot. So he takes 8 shots per game and shoots .560%. He draws 2 fouls per game, shoots .600%. Player B is a poor leaper. So he uses beautiful fadeaways, up and unders, up fakes, etc. He also draws 2 fouls per game but, being more skilled, shoots .700%; however, he shoots .460% from the field, though everyone agrees he has a more creative, skilled, and intelligent shot repetoire than player A.

However, at the end of the day, player A scores 11.36 points on his 8 shots plus 4 free throws. Player B 10.16 points on his 8 shots plus 4 free throws, but does so in a much more visually pleasing way. At the end of the day, I'll take player A.


Let me be clear: The stats we have are not perfect. However, especially over time, they offer some generalities. Especially the team stats. If a player's Bball IQ is very bad or very good, it shows up, either in decreased team offense (because said player always botches fast breaks or won't pass out of double teams or makes bad passes) or decreased team defense (because they don't draw charges and blow assignments). However, nothing I see conclusively swings the argument either toward Maxiell or Davis, and I have not seen much from watching Davis that makes me think his mystical BBall IQ is much better for the team than any other average player's Bball IQ/better athleticism.

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #196 on: August 10, 2010, 06:52:46 PM »

Offline MBunge

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VS. Opponents and On/Off

'09-'10: Davis: 13.1; Opp.: 18.5 On/Off: -10.4
'08-'09: Davis: 12.2; Opp.: 18.2 On/Off: -7.9
'07-'08: Davis: 12.8; Opp.: 15.8 On/Off: -6.4

PER and Per Minute:

'09-'10:
11.59 (61 out of 70 for qualified PF's; 50 out of 60 if counted as a C)
P/40: 14.6
R/40: 8.8
A/40: 1.5
FG%: .437
TS%: .500
Min: 17.3

'08-'09:
10.77 (57 out of 64 for qualified PF's; 55 out of 67 if counted as a C)
P/40: 13.0
R/40: 7.4
A/40: 1.7
FG%: .442
TS%: .502
Min: 21.5

'07-'08:
11.40 (51 out of 63 for qualified PF's; 42 out of 58 if counted as a C)
P/40: 13.3
R/40: 8.9
A/40: 1.2
FG%: .484
TS%: .545
Min: 13.6

Some Notes about the Numbers

-I put the On/Off there for reference, but I acknowledge that I personally question how valid they are. Davis has been on the C's for all 3 seasons, and On/Off I think are more valuable when there is a lot of player movement. Additionally, the C's roster has been quite consistent, so really all the On/Off says is that the Celtics are quite significantly worse team when Davis plays instead of KG or Perk. That's to be expected; both are very good and valuable players and start for a reason.

-However, it should put a damper on the "Davis is our future starting PF when the Big Three retire" talk. You cannot get aways with starting a PF that is that much worse than a past-his-prime KG and expect to be a great, competitive team, unless the other pieces are really good (like our playoff run 2 years ago). Further evidence against the notion of Davis as a starter is that his PER and Per Minute numbers so far have been inversely related to his minutes in a very consistent fashion: his best year was his fewest minutes; his worst was his most minutes. Small sample, to be sure, but if that pattern holds, he'd be quite a bit less efficient if he played actual starters minutes.

-In addition, I want to point this out too: Whenever talk of trading Davis for another team's bench player comes up, and someone uses stats to point out why they want another team's bench player, the anti-trade crowd consistently says something like "yeah, but that players' stats are inflated because they come off the bench and play against other bench players." If this makes that much of a difference, the exact same logic should be applied to Davis, and therefore Davis's numbers are just as inflated as every other bench player in the league. After all, he too comes off the bench and plays against other backups, to the extent that such activity is actually relevant. Unfortunately, whether Davis is going against other starters or other backup PF/Cs, he has consistently been outplayed by the opposition as evidenced by his efficiency vs. the opposing efficiencies.



My Summary
I want to be clear. I like Davis. I was super-excited from the day he was drafted in the 2nd round; thought he was an instant steal. I'm very glad he's on the Celtics. He does not suck; he has filled a valuable role for the team in his career so far. However, he is decidedly a bench player and far from irreplaceable. He's so valuable to us because 90% of our salary is devoted to the starting lineup (and our starting lineup is consistently near tops in the league), so any adequate contribution off the bench stands out and is key. However, we could easily have a better bench and better bench PF. No one with his statistical background has ended up being a key starter down the road unless they are a phenomenal all-defense type shut down defender; Davis is simply a good defender. Now, I know that this will provoke the "stats are lies I trust my eyes" crowd. As it should, as stats are always simply a [valuable] tool in the whole toolbox. However, I guarantee that if you took some of those other low minute PF's that are near or higher in the PER rankings and stuck them on the Celtics for the past 3 years, there would be just as much anecdotal observational evidence for, say, Jason Maxiell or Hansbrough, or Turiaf as there is for Davis, and the blogger defense of such players would be at least as strong as it is for Davis...there's definitely Green bias that occurs. Said another way, I think that there are many on this board that would never ever even think about trading Baby for Turiaf straight up (and would in fact ridicule other posters for even considering such a deal), despite similar numerical profiles plus Turiaf's edges in size, athleticism, and scoring efficiency and quite notable edge in overall defense. However, were Turiaf the first Celtic big off the bench for the past 3 years while Davis was achieving his consistent 11.25 or so PER and .460 shooting percentage on some other team, the backlash against people wanting to give away "Celtic Turiaf" for "Other Davis" would (rightly) be even MORE ridiculed than the current backlash against "Celtic Davis" trade ideas. That's the (quite natural) Green Bias at work again.

In summary to my summary, Davis is valuable right now. Additionally, big man depth is a good thing to have, as such depth can disappear quite quickly (JO or Shaq could miss a few weeks each; Perk could have a setback; KG strains something again...depth gone). So in no way shape or form do I (or, I believe, most people who think about Davis trades) want to just "dump Davis for the sake of dumping him" (which is a common accusation from the "anti-davis-trade" population which is a simplistic way of avoiding a fun/engaging/intelligent discussion). Rather, Davis is a replaceable bench part, and there may exist a trade out there that makes the overall team better (for example, a player who has the size/skill to play SF/PF and can defend both positions well; I think with our current team structure we'd be better off replaceing the PF/C Davis with an equally talented SF/PF; even better if we can use Sheed+Davis expiring to exploit a cash-concerned team into swapping Davis with a more talented SF/PF) and it's fun to explore such options. His name comes up in trade discussions because he is not a future starter, is not a current starter, but has proven to have some value and has a very nice attractive contract; he is our best combination of expendability and return value and thus will naturally be brought up in trade ideas. I will not be at all upset if Davis is on our roster for the next season. However, options should be explored, and Davis is not so valuable that you can't think about ways to make the overall team better; not so valuable that he is an automatic "no trade."

I just want to point out that I hate per X number of minute stats, especially when they're applied to a player who's never played X number of minutes.

Mike
Your problem is the understanding of the statistic.

No, my problem is that it's a theoretical stat. 
No your problem is you don't understand it!!!

It is not a theoretical statistic. It is a magnification of a per minute statistic so that it becomes easier to decipher.


Magnification can just as easily be called exaggeration.  Per minute "stats" take actual stats and then extrapolate from them to create theoretical numbers that players can be compared on.  Such "stats" may not be completely useless as a measure of player productivity, but there's waaaaaaaaay too many variables being taken for granted for such "stats" to be taken all that seriously.

Mike

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #197 on: August 10, 2010, 07:18:00 PM »

Offline Jevi

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I'm sure Baby has good Bball IQ, but again it won't matter when you don't have enough athleticism for defensive rotations/rebounds and offensive screens, things that not only help win games but blowout other teams if you have the right players. Baby's bad team stats may be confusing to BabyBackers, oh well. Anyone remember 3rd game against the Atlanta Hawks? Does this game remind fans of anything? I know I've seen this game before.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/1/11/1246421/celtics-fall-to-hawks-for-third

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #198 on: August 10, 2010, 07:26:29 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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So let me get this right. A Per 36 stat or a Per 40 stat is a theoretical stat that is near useless.

But if the statisticians used a Per Minute stat to compare how productive each player was on a per minute basis that they are on the floor that is not theoretical but useless because it doesn't take into consideration a wealth of other variables?

So the only stats that are worth anything are stats of what a player does in a per game basis? Is this what you are saying?

Because if it is then how do you compare players that play on the bench versus those that start? How do you compare players that play in a fast paced game versus those that play in a slow paced game? How do you decide if a player is still producing at a similar level than he once did if a coach decides to cut his minutes, bench him or start him instead of having him come off the bench?


Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #199 on: August 10, 2010, 08:00:37 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Magnification can just as easily be called exaggeration.  Per minute "stats" take actual stats and then extrapolate from them to create theoretical numbers that players can be compared on.  Such "stats" may not be completely useless as a measure of player productivity, but there's waaaaaaaaay too many variables being taken for granted for such "stats" to be taken all that seriously.

Mike

  It's not exaggeration and it's not theoretical. It's simple math that you probably learned in 2nd or 3rd grade. If x = y, then 3x = 3y.

  If I play 8 minutes a game and get 6 rebounds a game, and Nick plays 32 minutes a game and gets 8, would you claim that Nick's clearly a better rebounder than me because he gets 8 a game and I get 6? Or would you say that I'm a better rebounder because I get .75 boards per minute when I play and Nick only gets .25 rebounds per minute?

  Saying I get 6 rebounds in a minutes a game or saying I average .75 rebounds for every minute I play or saying that my per40 rebounding rate is 30 are 3 ways to say the exact same thing. It's not an exaggeration. It's not at all theoretical because it's based solely on my actual production. It doesn't imply that, if I played 40 minutes a game, I'd get 30 rebounds a game. It say that I average 30 rebounds for every 40 minutes I'm on the court. Nothing exaggerated, nothing theoretical.

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #200 on: August 10, 2010, 08:10:05 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Magnification can just as easily be called exaggeration.  Per minute "stats" take actual stats and then extrapolate from them to create theoretical numbers that players can be compared on.  Such "stats" may not be completely useless as a measure of player productivity, but there's waaaaaaaaay too many variables being taken for granted for such "stats" to be taken all that seriously.

Mike

  It's not exaggeration and it's not theoretical. It's simple math that you probably learned in 2nd or 3rd grade. If x = y, then 3x = 3y.

  If I play 8 minutes a game and get 6 rebounds a game, and Nick plays 32 minutes a game and gets 8, would you claim that Nick's clearly a better rebounder than me because he gets 8 a game and I get 6? Or would you say that I'm a better rebounder because I get .75 boards per minute when I play and Nick only gets .25 rebounds per minute?

  Saying I get 6 rebounds in a minutes a game or saying I average .75 rebounds for every minute I play or saying that my per40 rebounding rate is 30 are 3 ways to say the exact same thing. It's not an exaggeration. It's not at all theoretical because it's based solely on my actual production. It doesn't imply that, if I played 40 minutes a game, I'd get 30 rebounds a game. It say that I average 30 rebounds for every 40 minutes I'm on the court. Nothing exaggerated, nothing theoretical.
Thank you BBall. TP.

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #201 on: August 10, 2010, 08:13:26 PM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

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Ok - now you all have seriously lost me.

Using Algebra to quantify Glen Davis' production. ;D

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #202 on: August 10, 2010, 09:25:29 PM »

Offline snively

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Excellent work from Fan from VT in this thread.

The Baby for Delfino trade idea sounds great, though I'm not sure if the Bucks want to help a team they probably view as a conference rival.
2025 Draft: Chicago Bulls

PG: Chauncey Billups/Deron Williams
SG: Kobe Bryant/Eric Gordon
SF: Jimmy Butler/Danny Granger/Danilo Gallinari
PF: Al Horford/Zion Williamson
C: Yao Ming/Pau Gasol/Tyson Chandler

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #203 on: August 10, 2010, 11:03:08 PM »

Offline mmbaby

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I will admit BBD is my favorite player and I am certainly biased. But I don't like the term 'binky', thank you! It sounds childish and churlish and makes one feel like they're being insulted for having a favorite player. I will hazard a guess that most here (secretly) or not, have a favorite.

Having a favorite does not blind me or most others here to the truth, though, and the logical argument I put forth a few pages back is sound and reasonable and if you don't get it now, I think one day you will.

I'm impressed with all the stat number crunching and admire those here who can do it and relish it, though it lacks a lot of variables that cannot be written down and computed, especially in predicting the future. I still admire the heck out of those who can do it though.

Someone asked why there are fans here who get all bent out of shape when trading Baby is mentioned. Well, it's simple and all the reasons have already been listed. But if I could name just one out of the many, I'd say defense. We need it and we need it the way he does it. His defensive talent is truly awesome.

Someone here said the team is worse when BBD is playing!
This one is truly hilarious and truly doesn't warrant an answer. It falls into that old category called nonsense.

Big Baby is a lovable guy, charming, funny, entertaining, honest and real and that's why he is loved so much. But he wouldn't be loved like he is by such a large fanbase if he wasn't an awesome player also.

Hey everyone! I just can't wait for this season to start. It couldn't be soon enough. GO BIG BABY! LET'S GO CELTICS!   

 

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #204 on: August 10, 2010, 11:59:22 PM »

Offline Jevi

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I will admit BBD is my favorite player and I am certainly biased. But I don't like the term 'binky', thank you! It sounds childish and churlish and makes one feel like they're being insulted for having a favorite player. I will hazard a guess that most here (secretly) or not, have a favorite.

Having a favorite does not blind me or most others here to the truth, though, and the logical argument I put forth a few pages back is sound and reasonable and if you don't get it now, I think one day you will.

I'm impressed with all the stat number crunching and admire those here who can do it and relish it, though it lacks a lot of variables that cannot be written down and computed, especially in predicting the future. I still admire the heck out of those who can do it though.

Someone asked why there are fans here who get all bent out of shape when trading Baby is mentioned. Well, it's simple and all the reasons have already been listed. But if I could name just one out of the many, I'd say defense. We need it and we need it the way he does it. His defensive talent is truly awesome.

Someone here said the team is worse when BBD is playing!
This one is truly hilarious and truly doesn't warrant an answer. It falls into that old category called nonsense.

Big Baby is a lovable guy, charming, funny, entertaining, honest and real and that's why he is loved so much. But he wouldn't be loved like he is by such a large fanbase if he wasn't an awesome player also.

Hey everyone! I just can't wait for this season to start. It couldn't be soon enough. GO BIG BABY! LET'S GO CELTICS!  

  

Stop the violin! I know he is your favorite player, and you're right, we each have our favorite. We just disagree on his defense or this being his specialty whatsoever. You get a TP from me though man(like your energy), and yes the season can't come sooner.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rOLFudzIPs
...we'll maybe just one more move before we start.

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #205 on: August 11, 2010, 07:41:51 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Does Glen Davis have much upside or is he pretty much going to be the player he is right now?
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #206 on: August 11, 2010, 07:53:30 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Does Glen Davis have much upside or is he pretty much going to be the player he is right now?
He probably has hit his ceiling at this point.

He has a chance to become a better player if he is able to keep his weight down to the point where he is more a true 4 though than a 4/5.

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #207 on: August 11, 2010, 10:35:31 AM »

Offline MBunge

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How do you decide if a player is still producing at a similar level than he once did if a coach decides to cut his minutes, bench him or start him instead of having him come off the bench?


Uh, you actually WATCH HIM PLAY THE BLEEPIN' GAME.

Mike

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #208 on: August 11, 2010, 10:41:17 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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How do you decide if a player is still producing at a similar level than he once did if a coach decides to cut his minutes, bench him or start him instead of having him come off the bench?


Uh, you actually WATCH HIM PLAY THE BLEEPIN' GAME.

Mike
So you basically don't have an answer except to yell at me.

I should have expected such an answer from you.

Re: Why Is Glen Davis still on this team?
« Reply #209 on: August 11, 2010, 10:46:34 AM »

Offline lon3lytoaster

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Glen Davis; Why you still on this team?

"Cause there ain't no SF's [to trade for]"