Author Topic: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..  (Read 24878 times)

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Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #105 on: March 10, 2009, 01:27:04 PM »

Offline BballTim

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BBall

First off I think your original point was to just be argumentative and contrarian, as usual. My point, and I explained it quite simply so I am sure you can understand it, was that FG% was not a good indicator as to whether someone is a good outside shooter. But let me spell it out even clearer.


  Pretty amusing that someone who jumps into a thread and writes multiple posts disagreeing with a remark that BBD doesn't have a consistent outside shot finds me to be argumentative and contrarian when I do the exact same thing over a remark about Rondo being much more inconsistent than Davis.

  And of course I understood your point, and I didn't disagree with it at all. Davis's low fg% for the year doesn't make him a poor outside shooter and Rondo's high fg% doesn't make him a great outside shooter. That much is obvious. What I disagreed with was your claiming that Davis had a consistent outside shot and only a fool would think the same of Rondo.

  I also noticed that my arguments (which you rejected out of hand) were similar to your arguments supporting Davis. I think, in the end, you were the one who was being argumentative and contrarian. You didn't produce any evidence of the numbers that you dug up showing that Rondo was always shooting around 33%, you completely changed parts of your arguments when I showed that the numbers didn't support what you were saying, and you just resorted to attacking me (or my motives). Couldn't you have just admitted that your comparison wasn't a great one?
Once again, maybe, this time I'll start typing slower so that you get this, my statement was about FG% not being indicative of the quality of one's shot. Meaning, that someone shouldn't be foolish enough to believe that Rondo is actually a 51% outside shooter. Are you the only person on this blog not getting this because not one other person has responded in favor of your comment?

  Gee, Nick, that whole

 "I'll start typing slower so that you get this"

 because I couldn't understand

"someone shouldn't be foolish enough to believe that Rondo is actually a 51% outside shooter"

 really cut me to the quick. Especially when you consider that my post that you quoted contained

 "And of course I understood your point, and I didn't disagree with it at all. Davis's low fg% for the year doesn't make him a poor outside shooter and Rondo's high fg% doesn't make him a great outside shooter".

 I'll try and live with the shame.

As for my proof, I am ignoring the rest of what was said because it has nothing to do with my original point but if you must have it you can do the same leg work I did. Go to ESPN player page for Rondo. Then to his game log area. Then for each and every game go to the shot chart while choosing only Rondo's shot. Then keep a record of all his shots over 15ft.

  Thanks for pointing that out. since you were using hotspot stuff and maybe (I don't recall) 82games numbers it wasn't clear where you were getting these numbers from. TP for all the legwork, though.

You will find that Rondo missed his first 10 shots over 15 ft. But, from about game 8 through game 50 and through only those games Rondo shot almost exact 33% for all shots 15ft and over.

  For starters, I'll make the obvious comment that if Rondo was 0-10 at some point then he was at or below 10% at some point as I said. Moving on, I went through the games from game 8 to the end of November and looked at his shots that were outside the paint (most of them were probably 15 feet or more, but it's not an exact chart). I saw running totals like 2-18 and 3-21 and he finished the month around 6-34, which is about 18%. He made 3 -pointers in November so his efg% was about 22%. This seemed to carry over to early January if you believe the post I found that his efg% was just over 25% at the time.

  As I've been stating, since his efg% was in the low-mid 20s in December (if not later) and he's currently at .357 (from 82games) it's obvious that he's been shooting at a rate that's higher than is current 36% for a while in order to raise his total rate from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Now if you have anything else to comment have a ball. I think I made my point. And if I haven't then......

  Yes, Nick, you made your point. fg% does not show whether someone is a good outside shooter or not. Coincidentally, I also made my point. Davis is no more accurate or consistent an outside shooter than Rondo. Looks like we're both happy.

  ps: i didn't type slowly in my response, but I tried to keep the math simple.
LOL. TP back to you. Good debate in good fun.

This is a little off subject but since I know you looked at the numbers, does there seem to be a fairly large discrepency between the Hot Spots seasonal chart for Rondo's numbers and what 82games.com is posting. My quick math was that anything outside of the box under the basket in Hot Spots came up to about, and I didn't use a calculator, 30% jumpshots. 82games.com has Rondo at 43% jumpshots.

Do you think 82games.com is really counting floaters and other close shots(within 6 feet or so, as jump shots? If they are they are really doing an injustice to players who take shots inside of 6 feet and calling those jump shots.


  Just by approximation, he's taken about 327 inside (close or dunk) shots according to 82games, and hit about 65% of them. If you look at the innermost spot in the hotspots he's taken 386 shots from there and hit about 58%, so I'm guessing that they're talking about layups or real close shots, so things like floaters generally wouldn't qualify as inside shots.

  Just comparing hotspots, BBD has taken 129 long 2s or 3s (the outer 2 rings, and has a fg% of 41 and anefg% of 41.4. Rondo's taken 133 shots and has a fg% of 36% and an efg% of 41%. If you just compare long 2s Davis has taken 127 at 40.9% and Rondo's taken 89 at 39.9%. So again they're very similar.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #106 on: March 10, 2009, 01:36:28 PM »

Offline TomHamilton30

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Not to hijack this thread, b/c I think the BBD defense/offense has been beaten to death (esp statistically)... but what do you think the Celtics should offer him?

Some may get mad at me, but I hope they either trade him or not offer him anything above 1.5 million/year for a few years.  I think there's "bigs" who could be more valuable to the Celtics, and at a reasonable price.