Author Topic: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..  (Read 24878 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2009, 09:58:25 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3816
  • Tommy Points: 127
At the end of games you aren't running your offense through Powe or Davis.  You are running it through Pierce and Ray Allen (and Garnett if he's playing).  Powe clogs the lane for those guys, especially when he's in along with Perk.  BBD sets a mean pick and then pops, which keeps the lane clear for the two main guys.  Plus, if the ball does find its way into Davis' hands, he will find the cutter or the open man.

Well said Brick. I think it is more about fit than who is the better player. Many disagree on that as evidenced by board after board of it, but it is hard to argue that when you are trying to isolate guys in crunch time it is easier with BBD spreading the floor. Powe has had some pretty amazing stretches with the starters though, so it would be interesting to see how he did. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit the glass and put one back off a miss by Paul or Ray though. Different kind of skill set out there if so. If BBD keeps knocking down the jumper and trimming down I would like to see both of them re-sign, but I doubt it.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #46 on: March 07, 2009, 10:18:15 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

  • In The Rafters
  • The Natural
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33333
  • Tommy Points: 6430
  • Doc could learn a thing or two from Norman Dale
I think the problem, honestly and this will sound weird, is that the stats take into account the entire season.
...
The numbers from the whole season may not show why Baby merits a start over Leon, but there are good reasons for that. One, I think both Leon and Baby's strong suit is under the basket and numbers are not forgiving to someone being asked to expand their game on the fly, especially when they play limited minutes. Two, it judges them both strictly as Power Forwards , which frankly, Leon isn't offensively on the Celtics. He plays a low post center offense, and God bless him for that because someone has to, and offensive numbers have a great deal of influence in Hollinger's PER. And three, it is frankly easier to score closer to the basket, which is where Leon is being asked to play.

I know what you're saying, but I think in this instance, the stats are reflective of what's been happening recently.  The majority of the time BBD has been playing with the starters has been over the past several games; prior to KG's and Scal's injuries, BBD got very little time alongside Rondo, Ray, Pierce, and Perk (much like Leon has seen little time with those teammates).  The stats, then, are reflective of the present, which (outside of last night) hasn't been overly pretty with BBD in the game.  Our team defense has been somewhere between poor and terrible (again, prior to last night), and the stats suggest that the lion's share of that is coming from the starting lineup.

I don't know if Leon would do any better as a starter, and I understand the reasons why BBD.  However, in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, the lineup with BBD has been one of our worst.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #47 on: March 07, 2009, 10:36:31 PM »

Offline ToppersBsktball10

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1424
  • Tommy Points: 27
  • Smooth As Silk.
powe just needs a jumper otherwise i like him alot in this bbd is still a good contributor im fine with either

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #48 on: March 07, 2009, 11:13:54 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10726
  • Tommy Points: 830
I think the problem, honestly and this will sound weird, is that the stats take into account the entire season.
...
The numbers from the whole season may not show why Baby merits a start over Leon, but there are good reasons for that. One, I think both Leon and Baby's strong suit is under the basket and numbers are not forgiving to someone being asked to expand their game on the fly, especially when they play limited minutes. Two, it judges them both strictly as Power Forwards , which frankly, Leon isn't offensively on the Celtics. He plays a low post center offense, and God bless him for that because someone has to, and offensive numbers have a great deal of influence in Hollinger's PER. And three, it is frankly easier to score closer to the basket, which is where Leon is being asked to play.

I know what you're saying, but I think in this instance, the stats are reflective of what's been happening recently.  The majority of the time BBD has been playing with the starters has been over the past several games; prior to KG's and Scal's injuries, BBD got very little time alongside Rondo, Ray, Pierce, and Perk (much like Leon has seen little time with those teammates).  The stats, then, are reflective of the present, which (outside of last night) hasn't been overly pretty with BBD in the game.  Our team defense has been somewhere between poor and terrible (again, prior to last night), and the stats suggest that the lion's share of that is coming from the starting lineup.

I don't know if Leon would do any better as a starter, and I understand the reasons why BBD.  However, in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, the lineup with BBD has been one of our worst.


And I'm fine with the idea that the starters with Davis is not as good the starters with Garnett. What I object to is the idea that it is a mystery as to why Doc doesn't play the starters and Powe. I believe there is a reason that Davis with the starters has gotten four times as many minutes as the starters with Powe and that reason is, that leon starting at the 4 simply does not give the Celtics the floor balance and rhythm they are accustomed to. Am I saying the unit is perfect, no. What I am saying is that I believe it would be considerably worse with Powe in the starting 5, simply because Baby has a wider range of skills than Leon. Whether or not Leon's are more potent is certainly debatable, but I don't think the breadth of skill is.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #49 on: March 07, 2009, 11:24:43 PM »

Offline timpiker

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1726
  • Tommy Points: 113
I'm not reading the artilc ebut the title is pure BS.  Anyone should understand why DDD starts ahead of Powe.

Does anyone watch the games?

Powe's game is inside and he'd get in the way of Perk.  BBD hits that 17 footer because that's what KG's shot is with the starters.  They've each got a role and they try to do it.

Powe comes in when Perk is on the bench because both have to play close to the basket.

Whoever wrote this stupid ESPN artcile - do they watch the games or the C's more than once a year?

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #50 on: March 07, 2009, 11:56:38 PM »

Offline Chris

  • Global Moderator
  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18008
  • Tommy Points: 642
Its simple, Davis fits in much better with the starters because of his defense, passing, and mid range shooting.  It is similar reasons that Scal was starting before he got injured. 

Hollinger takes his love of the numbers too far sometimes, and fails to actually look at the real basketball reasons. 

I am fine with him saying the Powe is better than Davis (although I think it is closer than the numbers show), but when you are looking at how players are used, there is much more to it than who's better.  Especially when you are talking about players like Powe and Davis, who both still have holes in their games.

Is that true, though?  I hear what you're saying, but overall, the team has played pretty poorly with BBD as a starter.  Yes, the team has a winning record (5-2), but the team has looked poor in several of those wins, especially on defense (New Jersey, Indiana, Philly, etc.)  None of those were "easy" wins, unlike what you see when Scal fills in for KG a lot of times.

Of the five player combinations the Celts have played over 100 minutes, the one where BBD plays in place of KG has been by far the worst.  In fact, defensively, it's tied for our worst lineup overall, and it's tied for our fourth worst offensive unit.  Opposing teams outscore that player combination 66.7% of the time it's on the floor.  http://www.82games.com/0809/0809BOS2.HTM

Objectively, I can't look at numbers like those and say BBD is a good fit.  I know many people like to ignore stats, claiming they don't accurate depict what's going on in the floor.  However, at some point, don't the statistics shed some light on things?

On the other hand, in limited minutes, the combination of Powe with the starters has yielded a more efficient offensive team than our normal starters, with only a slight dip in defense.  It's a limited sample size, but it's statistics like that that make guys like Hollinger notice that something isn't working like it should on paper.  Maybe the stats truly are wrong, or maybe the team has other reasons for playing BBD.  However, it's clear, at least, why Hollinger thinks Powe is a better fit.

In terms of who is a better player, I agree with the statement above that the two play different positions right now, and shouldn't be evaluated as rivals.  However, statistically, Powe has definitely been the better performer.  Offensively, Powe has been much better, and defensively, statistics suggest that Powe is a lot closer to BBD than many give credit for.  That being said, I think BBD has looked great over the past couple months, and I'm glad they're both here.  I'd like them both to get minutes over Mikki Moore in the playoffs, since both BBD and Powe are better overall players.

Like Always, I don't buy the stats.  Just watching the games, you can clearly see that the starters have not been playing well since Davis has taken over...but I think it is tough to blame it on Davis.  There are just too many different variables to say he is the problem with that unit.

But anyways, I think I didn't make part of my point well.  While I think a big reason Davis starting is that his skillset fits in better with the starters than Powe's does, just as important is how well Powe fits with the bench unit. 

The bench unit really needs Powe's rebounding and scoring much more than the first unit does.

This is one of the main reasons Scal was put into the starting unit last year when KG was hurt, despite the fact that he wasn't even really part of the rotation at the time.  Doc likes to try to keep some level of consistency among units. 

The fact is Powe and Davis both bring a lot to the table, and they both are going to play.  So it makes a lot of sense for Doc to be playing them with units that fit their skillsets better, rather than worrying about starting whoever is "better".

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #51 on: March 08, 2009, 07:48:46 AM »

Offline Brendan

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2990
  • Tommy Points: 72
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=hollingerceltics-090307

Even when Boston's physical play went too far -- like when Davis was ejected for a flagrant foul on Anderson Varejao early in the third quarter -- it worked out OK. Davis' ouster proved to be a blessing in disguise, as Powe came in and raised Boston's interior domination to another level. Truth be told, Powe has been the more effective player all season, and it's been something of a mystery that Davis, not Powe, has been the one to see more court time in Garnett's absence

Sorry, i fail at links if it doesnt work.

But i find it shocking and couldnt disagree more.  I love both guys, and having them both gives us options.  But i really think Davis has seperated himself as the player who has improved and is really playing better.

His defense is better.  His jumper is getting more consistant.  I can see him gaining confidence and in a year, his jumper will be money.  The great thing is he's not afraid of taking it now.  He has obviously toned up and trimmed down.

Am i in the minority here? Or is hollinger just making bad assumptions?

I think that is a classic case of an ESPN analyst watching one game and making an opinion based on that.  I like Powe, and he played great as of late.  Lately, he's been getting some real hard rebounds with guts, determination and courage.  However, for most of the season Powe hasn't really been the Powe that of last playoffs season and I don't think he had outplayed Baby.  He was being overaggressive on the offensive, looking for contact instead of putting the ball in the loop.  Maybe this argument can be made now that Powe has stepped up his game, even though Big Baby has stepped up to.  But not before.

PS. BBD was playing great when he was on too, scoring 10 points in 16 minutes.
I think this is the classic case of a CelticsBlog poster not knowing what he's talking about. Hollinger watches a ton of hoops, he also is basing that analysis on a lot of statistical analysis (which is his bread and butter.) I understand how people w/o insider might not know this.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #52 on: March 08, 2009, 08:06:41 AM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

  • In The Rafters
  • The Natural
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33333
  • Tommy Points: 6430
  • Doc could learn a thing or two from Norman Dale
I think the problem, honestly and this will sound weird, is that the stats take into account the entire season.
...
The numbers from the whole season may not show why Baby merits a start over Leon, but there are good reasons for that. One, I think both Leon and Baby's strong suit is under the basket and numbers are not forgiving to someone being asked to expand their game on the fly, especially when they play limited minutes. Two, it judges them both strictly as Power Forwards , which frankly, Leon isn't offensively on the Celtics. He plays a low post center offense, and God bless him for that because someone has to, and offensive numbers have a great deal of influence in Hollinger's PER. And three, it is frankly easier to score closer to the basket, which is where Leon is being asked to play.

I know what you're saying, but I think in this instance, the stats are reflective of what's been happening recently.  The majority of the time BBD has been playing with the starters has been over the past several games; prior to KG's and Scal's injuries, BBD got very little time alongside Rondo, Ray, Pierce, and Perk (much like Leon has seen little time with those teammates).  The stats, then, are reflective of the present, which (outside of last night) hasn't been overly pretty with BBD in the game.  Our team defense has been somewhere between poor and terrible (again, prior to last night), and the stats suggest that the lion's share of that is coming from the starting lineup.

I don't know if Leon would do any better as a starter, and I understand the reasons why BBD.  However, in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, the lineup with BBD has been one of our worst.


And I'm fine with the idea that the starters with Davis is not as good the starters with Garnett. What I object to is the idea that it is a mystery as to why Doc doesn't play the starters and Powe. I believe there is a reason that Davis with the starters has gotten four times as many minutes as the starters with Powe and that reason is, that leon starting at the 4 simply does not give the Celtics the floor balance and rhythm they are accustomed to. Am I saying the unit is perfect, no. What I am saying is that I believe it would be considerably worse with Powe in the starting 5, simply because Baby has a wider range of skills than Leon. Whether or not Leon's are more potent is certainly debatable, but I don't think the breadth of skill is.

Sure, I hear you.  However, statistically guys like Hollinger aren't going to ignore that, by far, the lineup involving our starters and BBD is the worst defensive unit we've put on the floor this year in terms of playing combos that have seen at least 20 minutes.  It's not that the team has been worse subbing KG for BBD; it's that that lineup has been the worst, period.  It has been collectively outscored by the other team by a total of 33 points, by far the worst combo on the team.  It allows an average of 117 points per 100 possessions, tied for worst combo on the team.  Offensively, it scores 107 points per 100 possessions, which is one of our least efficient offensive lineups. 

For whatever reason, the starting lineup has struggled both offensively and defensively with BBD in there.  That's a fact.  The question is, why?  I understand the arguments about floor spacing, etc., but the results haven't been there.  I think that's what is giving Hollinger pause.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #53 on: March 08, 2009, 09:26:04 AM »

Offline Brickowski

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4207
  • Tommy Points: 423
The fact remains that the "combo" with BBD replacing Garnett has been playing against the other team's starters.  Some of the other combos have not.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #54 on: March 08, 2009, 09:56:51 AM »

Offline clover

  • Front Page Moderator
  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6130
  • Tommy Points: 315
I think Powe and Moore are developing some chemistry together.  But it's as likely that Perk's shoulder takes him out of the lineup as anything, and what to me is interesting now is whom Doc would start in that situation.  I think Powe against the smaller centers, Baby against the heftier ones?

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #55 on: March 08, 2009, 10:02:10 AM »

Offline Bankshot

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7540
  • Tommy Points: 632
The fact remains that the "combo" with BBD replacing Garnett has been playing against the other team's starters.  Some of the other combos have not.

Yup.

Quote
An NBA general manager said Celtics forward Glen Davis can probably command a salary starting in the $3 million-$5 million range when he becomes a free agent during the offseason and believes there will be interest from several teams

Well, I might side with NBA general managers who have to actually evaluate players rather than Hollinger.  That being said, I think BBD can get $3mil, but I don't see him getting $5mil.

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/articles/2009/03/08/a_wild_west_show_looms/?page=3
"If somebody would have told you when he was playing with the Knicks that Nate Robinson was going to change a big time game and he was going to do it mostly because of his defense, somebody would have got slapped."  Mark Jackson

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #56 on: March 08, 2009, 10:02:45 AM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
The fact remains that the "combo" with BBD replacing Garnett has been playing against the other team's starters.  Some of the other combos have not.

  That's true, but if you're comparing BBD or Powe with the starters minus KG you're not going against reserves with either lineup.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #57 on: March 08, 2009, 10:13:31 AM »

Offline makaveli

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3154
  • Tommy Points: 321
  • The Truth
Wow, it's a hge deal who gets to start the [dang] game, they still play about the same amounth of minutes. If Tony Allen started inplace of Ray and Ray played 30 minutes I wouldn't say a thing
what doesn't kill you makes you stronger

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #58 on: March 08, 2009, 10:23:35 AM »

Offline the_Bird

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3244
  • Tommy Points: 176
Its simple, Davis fits in much better with the starters because of his defense, passing, and mid range shooting.  It is similar reasons that Scal was starting before he got injured. 

Hollinger takes his love of the numbers too far sometimes, and fails to actually look at the real basketball reasons. 

I am fine with him saying the Powe is better than Davis (although I think it is closer than the numbers show), but when you are looking at how players are used, there is much more to it than who's better.  Especially when you are talking about players like Powe and Davis, who both still have holes in their games.

Is that true, though?  I hear what you're saying, but overall, the team has played pretty poorly with BBD as a starter.  Yes, the team has a winning record (5-2), but the team has looked poor in several of those wins, especially on defense (New Jersey, Indiana, Philly, etc.)  None of those were "easy" wins, unlike what you see when Scal fills in for KG a lot of times.

Of the five player combinations the Celts have played over 100 minutes, the one where BBD plays in place of KG has been by far the worst.  In fact, defensively, it's tied for our worst lineup overall, and it's tied for our fourth worst offensive unit.  Opposing teams outscore that player combination 66.7% of the time it's on the floor.  http://www.82games.com/0809/0809BOS2.HTM

Objectively, I can't look at numbers like those and say BBD is a good fit.  I know many people like to ignore stats, claiming they don't accurate depict what's going on in the floor.  However, at some point, don't the statistics shed some light on things?

On the other hand, in limited minutes, the combination of Powe with the starters has yielded a more efficient offensive team than our normal starters, with only a slight dip in defense.  It's a limited sample size, but it's statistics like that that make guys like Hollinger notice that something isn't working like it should on paper.  Maybe the stats truly are wrong, or maybe the team has other reasons for playing BBD.  However, it's clear, at least, why Hollinger thinks Powe is a better fit.

In terms of who is a better player, I agree with the statement above that the two play different positions right now, and shouldn't be evaluated as rivals.  However, statistically, Powe has definitely been the better performer.  Offensively, Powe has been much better, and defensively, statistics suggest that Powe is a lot closer to BBD than many give credit for.  That being said, I think BBD has looked great over the past couple months, and I'm glad they're both here.  I'd like them both to get minutes over Mikki Moore in the playoffs, since both BBD and Powe are better overall players.

Like Always, I don't buy the stats.  Just watching the games, you can clearly see that the starters have not been playing well since Davis has taken over...but I think it is tough to blame it on Davis.  There are just too many different variables to say he is the problem with that unit.

But anyways, I think I didn't make part of my point well.  While I think a big reason Davis starting is that his skillset fits in better with the starters than Powe's does, just as important is how well Powe fits with the bench unit. 

The bench unit really needs Powe's rebounding and scoring much more than the first unit does.

This is one of the main reasons Scal was put into the starting unit last year when KG was hurt, despite the fact that he wasn't even really part of the rotation at the time.  Doc likes to try to keep some level of consistency among units. 

The fact is Powe and Davis both bring a lot to the table, and they both are going to play.  So it makes a lot of sense for Doc to be playing them with units that fit their skillsets better, rather than worrying about starting whoever is "better".

Is it as simple as...

1. The starting unit benefits from a shooter at the PF spot (KG or BBD), since you're already got Perk kinda clogging things up down low and our best player is a slasher?

2. The second unit not only needs Powe's offense, but they need more of an interior presense.  They've got plenty of shooters already, and not many guys who tend to slash to the basket (especially with Tony Allen out).

I've been impressed with BBD this season; he's really been working hard on that jumper, and he is a more consistent defender, but there are things that Powe can do under the basket that are just really hard to find.  As noted, they both have holes in their game, but I don't see the net difference between them to be all that great.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #59 on: March 08, 2009, 11:12:17 AM »

Offline TomHamilton30

  • Xavier Tillman
  • Posts: 28
  • Tommy Points: 1
I'm in complete agreement with Hollinger.

I saw that quote by John Hollinger yesterday and immediately called my good friend Nate (we watch all the games, albeit in different states now) because we've been so annoyed that BBD gets playing time, especially starting time.

BBD's defense is NOT better than Powe's (and I'm not saying Powe's is great).  Davis misses so many rotations it's ridiculous... during the 1st half of Cleveland's game I counted 11 Cleveland points scored off of wide open shots that were a direct result of BBD not rotating fast enough or getting to the location he needed to be.

Finally the stats backup exactly what my friends and I have been seeing and saying for some time. 

I like Davis' hustle and think he has progressed this season for sure (while Powe has been rather stagnant in his development at times) but BBD is very limited in what he'll ever accomplish in this league.  Genuinely I hope they don't commit a few million each year to him. 

Last note - Anyone else finding this their first season where they're saying "I can't wait for Scalabrine to come back!" lol.  But I am :)