Author Topic: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..  (Read 24878 times)

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Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2009, 06:23:37 PM »

Offline Tai

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BBD does spread the floor with his jumpshot. That said, his jumpshot may not go down as much as we all wish, which MAY be part of the reason the stats say BBD + starters don't do as well as other starting lineups. At least, that's what I feel.

Either way, Powe can't create offense like BBD can. Still, at the end of the day, we all know BBD starting is short term anyways, and that BBD + Powe together off the bench is SO much more effective.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2009, 07:11:01 PM »

Offline crownsy

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Basically, I think that's Davis' midrange shot is why he starts right now.

TP, i agree totally.
“I will hurt you for this. A day will come when you think you’re safe and happy and your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth. And you will know the debt is paid.” – Tyrion

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2009, 07:14:11 PM »

Offline cordobes

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Its simple, Davis fits in much better with the starters because of his defense, passing, and mid range shooting.  It is similar reasons that Scal was starting before he got injured. 

Hollinger takes his love of the numbers too far sometimes, and fails to actually look at the real basketball reasons. 

I am fine with him saying the Powe is better than Davis (although I think it is closer than the numbers show), but when you are looking at how players are used, there is much more to it than who's better.  Especially when you are talking about players like Powe and Davis, who both still have holes in their games.

Is that true, though?  I hear what you're saying, but overall, the team has played pretty poorly with BBD as a starter.  Yes, the team has a winning record (5-2), but the team has looked poor in several of those wins, especially on defense (New Jersey, Indiana, Philly, etc.)  None of those were "easy" wins, unlike what you see when Scal fills in for KG a lot of times.

Of the five player combinations the Celts have played over 100 minutes, the one where BBD plays in place of KG has been by far the worst.  In fact, defensively, it's tied for our worst lineup overall, and it's tied for our fourth worst offensive unit.  Opposing teams outscore that player combination 66.7% of the time it's on the floor.  http://www.82games.com/0809/0809BOS2.HTM

Objectively, I can't look at numbers like those and say BBD is a good fit.  I know many people like to ignore stats, claiming they don't accurate depict what's going on in the floor.  However, at some point, don't the statistics shed some light on things?
(...)

I don't think there's "a point", but even if true, the problem is that you're not yet at that point. I mean, 160 minutes? Not even adjusted? That doesn't mean anything. What's your opinion of Chris Paul last season, for example? Because some stats show he was horrible.

I agree with those who say that Davis starts because he spreads the floor better. I think some teams will make things though for a lineup with Rondo, Powe and Perkins on the floor at the same time. Same reason Doc's first option was always Scal.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2009, 07:15:01 PM »

Offline crownsy

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The starting lineup should remain the same. BBD opens up the offense for Rondo to facilitate, instead of having Perk & Leon camping inside. I like that Doc didn't yank leon early second Q, and they just kept on feeding him.

Once KG returns healthy, O my our bench is going to be a beast.

Perk and Leon play well together.  Rondo loves to drive and dish to leon for the finish.  Leon has great chemistry with all the starters and the spacing is great when he plays with perk or KG

which is exactly why baby starts.

perk and powe at the same time is a spacing nightmare.

Leon and KG is effective because KG is a great jump shooter, which means leon can play the paint and be available for rajon to dish to.


while baby is not near the JS KG is, he is better than people on this board want to admit.

Leon off the bench also allows doc to flex his lineups more, since he can pull perk and play leon-baby, or pull perk and davis and play leon-moore ect.

I think doc also likes leon vs second units since he tends to be one of the better re bounders among our second units, which he wont be able to get if he starts.

“I will hurt you for this. A day will come when you think you’re safe and happy and your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth. And you will know the debt is paid.” – Tyrion

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2009, 07:18:51 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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Could it be that this has nothing to do with BBD being better than Powe? Is it possible that Doc wanted the person that he felt could contribute more overall out there with the second squad so we didn't have as big of a drop off on that second unit? Think about this.

If Doc was forced to play one of us out there in games that mattered, wouldn't he put us out there with the starters rather than the second unit? Wouldn't our deficiencies be that much easier to hide with 4 All Stars, and teams would just sag off on us allowing us to shoot open jumpers? If we could knock them down it wouldn't be that big of a deal. If he put us out there on a unit filled with second tier players who couldn't carry the load we would really hurt that unit.

Maybe Doc trusts Powe's ability to rebound, score on the low block, and do the dirty work more than Davis and thinks this will improve the second unit. That isn't a knock on BBD, because he can hit the open jumper recently and can body up on bigger guys defensively better than Powe can. His skill set though isn't being a go to guy on offense. It is getting the kick out. If anyone can't create his own shot it is BBD. That's why I think he plays better with the starters than the second squad.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2009, 07:25:30 PM »

Offline crownsy

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Could it be that this has nothing to do with BBD being better than Powe? Is it possible that Doc wanted the person that he felt could contribute more overall out there with the second squad so we didn't have as big of a drop off on that second unit? Think about this.

If Doc was forced to play one of us out there in games that mattered, wouldn't he put us out there with the starters rather than the second unit? Wouldn't our deficiencies be that much easier to hide with 4 All Stars, and teams would just sag off on us allowing us to shoot open jumpers? If we could knock them down it wouldn't be that big of a deal. If he put us out there on a unit filled with second tier players who couldn't carry the load we would really hurt that unit.

Maybe Doc trusts Powe's ability to rebound, score on the low block, and do the dirty work more than Davis and thinks this will improve the second unit. That isn't a knock on BBD, because he can hit the open jumper recently and can body up on bigger guys defensively better than Powe can. His skill set though isn't being a go to guy on offense. It is getting the kick out. If anyone can't create his own shot it is BBD. That's why I think he plays better with the starters than the second squad.

TP, i touched on this, i think leon's hustle and muscle and general powe pimping is much tougher for guys off the bench to handle than starters.

He often out rebounds 2-3 bench players for the other team and gets the ball back up.

I like the way we're doing things right now, i think it plays to the second unit having an extremely high energy level, which is important, and leon and (dare i say it) mikki are a big part of.

Not sure losing that would be worth it just to have leon announced with the starters. he would be fine, but he is a rock for that bench unit.
“I will hurt you for this. A day will come when you think you’re safe and happy and your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth. And you will know the debt is paid.” – Tyrion

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2009, 07:40:33 PM »

Offline Toine43

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Could it be that this has nothing to do with BBD being better than Powe? Is it possible that Doc wanted the person that he felt could contribute more overall out there with the second squad so we didn't have as big of a drop off on that second unit? Think about this.

If Doc was forced to play one of us out there in games that mattered, wouldn't he put us out there with the starters rather than the second unit? Wouldn't our deficiencies be that much easier to hide with 4 All Stars, and teams would just sag off on us allowing us to shoot open jumpers? If we could knock them down it wouldn't be that big of a deal. If he put us out there on a unit filled with second tier players who couldn't carry the load we would really hurt that unit.

Maybe Doc trusts Powe's ability to rebound, score on the low block, and do the dirty work more than Davis and thinks this will improve the second unit. That isn't a knock on BBD, because he can hit the open jumper recently and can body up on bigger guys defensively better than Powe can. His skill set though isn't being a go to guy on offense. It is getting the kick out. If anyone can't create his own shot it is BBD. That's why I think he plays better with the starters than the second squad.
But, by that logic, wouldn't Powe be considered as an option at the end of games (besides last night when BBD was ejected)? If the Celtics only started Big Baby because they thought they needed Leon out there with the second unit, then I would think they'd want Leon out there in the 4th quarter with the game on the line.


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Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2009, 07:43:47 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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Could it be that this has nothing to do with BBD being better than Powe? Is it possible that Doc wanted the person that he felt could contribute more overall out there with the second squad so we didn't have as big of a drop off on that second unit? Think about this.

If Doc was forced to play one of us out there in games that mattered, wouldn't he put us out there with the starters rather than the second unit? Wouldn't our deficiencies be that much easier to hide with 4 All Stars, and teams would just sag off on us allowing us to shoot open jumpers? If we could knock them down it wouldn't be that big of a deal. If he put us out there on a unit filled with second tier players who couldn't carry the load we would really hurt that unit.

Maybe Doc trusts Powe's ability to rebound, score on the low block, and do the dirty work more than Davis and thinks this will improve the second unit. That isn't a knock on BBD, because he can hit the open jumper recently and can body up on bigger guys defensively better than Powe can. His skill set though isn't being a go to guy on offense. It is getting the kick out. If anyone can't create his own shot it is BBD. That's why I think he plays better with the starters than the second squad.

TP, i touched on this, i think leon's hustle and muscle and general powe pimping is much tougher for guys off the bench to handle than starters.

He often out rebounds 2-3 bench players for the other team and gets the ball back up.

I like the way we're doing things right now, i think it plays to the second unit having an extremely high energy level, which is important, and leon and (dare i say it) mikki are a big part of.

Not sure losing that would be worth it just to have leon announced with the starters. he would be fine, but he is a rock for that bench unit.

I agree completely with everything you added. TP right back at you!

Now if that is true, then let's think about this coming offseason. With KG in the starting lineup, and a little more confidence in Scal when he returns (at least by next year) do they really keep both Powe and BBD when they have such a huge glaring hole at the SF position? If he is indeed making this lineup based on his confidence in Powe and not as much thinking BBD is the better player, then I think they let BBD walk next year, or more likely try a sign and trade with him, possibly for that SF we are so in need of. I would argue we even need two at that spot. Marbury or Pruitt goes, BBD gets traded for one, and we draft or sign another.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #38 on: March 07, 2009, 07:45:55 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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Could it be that this has nothing to do with BBD being better than Powe? Is it possible that Doc wanted the person that he felt could contribute more overall out there with the second squad so we didn't have as big of a drop off on that second unit? Think about this.

If Doc was forced to play one of us out there in games that mattered, wouldn't he put us out there with the starters rather than the second unit? Wouldn't our deficiencies be that much easier to hide with 4 All Stars, and teams would just sag off on us allowing us to shoot open jumpers? If we could knock them down it wouldn't be that big of a deal. If he put us out there on a unit filled with second tier players who couldn't carry the load we would really hurt that unit.

Maybe Doc trusts Powe's ability to rebound, score on the low block, and do the dirty work more than Davis and thinks this will improve the second unit. That isn't a knock on BBD, because he can hit the open jumper recently and can body up on bigger guys defensively better than Powe can. His skill set though isn't being a go to guy on offense. It is getting the kick out. If anyone can't create his own shot it is BBD. That's why I think he plays better with the starters than the second squad.
But, by that logic, wouldn't Powe be considered as an option at the end of games (besides last night when BBD was ejected)? If the Celtics only started Big Baby because they thought they needed Leon out there with the second unit, then I would think they'd want Leon out there in the 4th quarter with the game on the line.

Not necessarily, because the other 4 starters are in there. Powe adds a lot more to the second squad than BBD, and I would argue with his outside shot that BBD allows the first unit to run smoother in place of KG. Powe and Perk on the low block together don't mesh too well.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #39 on: March 07, 2009, 07:53:54 PM »

Offline Toine43

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One other thing I don't get is the "Leon doesn't start because is a black hole" logic. I get the "Leon doesn't start because he can't spread the floor" logic, but that's much different than being a black hole.

People have it in their heads that Leon in some way handicaps the starters because his passing skills and "baksetball IQ" aren't at the level of Big Baby's. I just don't see it. When Leon gets the ball down low, he'll shoot it most of the time. What's problem with that? If he's playing like we all know he can play, he's going to score the basketball most of the time if he's taking a shot in the paint. And I've seen no evidence that the ball movement deteriorates when Leon is in there, like it does at times with Tony Allen. The offense runs just as smoothly, and I don't have stats to prove this but they probably get more fast break points with Leon in the game. He's much better at running the floor than BBD and the best time to have a big that gets out on the break in the game is when Rondo is in.

Could it be that this has nothing to do with BBD being better than Powe? Is it possible that Doc wanted the person that he felt could contribute more overall out there with the second squad so we didn't have as big of a drop off on that second unit? Think about this.

If Doc was forced to play one of us out there in games that mattered, wouldn't he put us out there with the starters rather than the second unit? Wouldn't our deficiencies be that much easier to hide with 4 All Stars, and teams would just sag off on us allowing us to shoot open jumpers? If we could knock them down it wouldn't be that big of a deal. If he put us out there on a unit filled with second tier players who couldn't carry the load we would really hurt that unit.

Maybe Doc trusts Powe's ability to rebound, score on the low block, and do the dirty work more than Davis and thinks this will improve the second unit. That isn't a knock on BBD, because he can hit the open jumper recently and can body up on bigger guys defensively better than Powe can. His skill set though isn't being a go to guy on offense. It is getting the kick out. If anyone can't create his own shot it is BBD. That's why I think he plays better with the starters than the second squad.
But, by that logic, wouldn't Powe be considered as an option at the end of games (besides last night when BBD was ejected)? If the Celtics only started Big Baby because they thought they needed Leon out there with the second unit, then I would think they'd want Leon out there in the 4th quarter with the game on the line.

Not necessarily, because the other 4 starters are in there. Powe adds a lot more to the second squad than BBD, and I would argue with his outside shot that BBD allows the first unit to run smoother in place of KG. Powe and Perk on the low block together don't mesh too well.
Okay, I just thought you were saying in your first post that the reason BBD started had much more to do with Powe being a better fit for the second unit than with BBD being a better fit with the starters. If you think it has to do with both, than that is of course why you'd want Big Baby in at the end of games. I'm not sure I agree, but I get where you're coming from.


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Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #40 on: March 07, 2009, 08:00:52 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

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Its simple, Davis fits in much better with the starters because of his defense, passing, and mid range shooting.  It is similar reasons that Scal was starting before he got injured. 

Hollinger takes his love of the numbers too far sometimes, and fails to actually look at the real basketball reasons. 

I am fine with him saying the Powe is better than Davis (although I think it is closer than the numbers show), but when you are looking at how players are used, there is much more to it than who's better.  Especially when you are talking about players like Powe and Davis, who both still have holes in their games.

Is that true, though?  I hear what you're saying, but overall, the team has played pretty poorly with BBD as a starter.  Yes, the team has a winning record (5-2), but the team has looked poor in several of those wins, especially on defense (New Jersey, Indiana, Philly, etc.)  None of those were "easy" wins, unlike what you see when Scal fills in for KG a lot of times.

Of the five player combinations the Celts have played over 100 minutes, the one where BBD plays in place of KG has been by far the worst.  In fact, defensively, it's tied for our worst lineup overall, and it's tied for our fourth worst offensive unit.  Opposing teams outscore that player combination 66.7% of the time it's on the floor.  http://www.82games.com/0809/0809BOS2.HTM

Objectively, I can't look at numbers like those and say BBD is a good fit.  I know many people like to ignore stats, claiming they don't accurate depict what's going on in the floor.  However, at some point, don't the statistics shed some light on things?

On the other hand, in limited minutes, the combination of Powe with the starters has yielded a more efficient offensive team than our normal starters, with only a slight dip in defense.  It's a limited sample size, but it's statistics like that that make guys like Hollinger notice that something isn't working like it should on paper.  Maybe the stats truly are wrong, or maybe the team has other reasons for playing BBD.  However, it's clear, at least, why Hollinger thinks Powe is a better fit.

In terms of who is a better player, I agree with the statement above that the two play different positions right now, and shouldn't be evaluated as rivals.  However, statistically, Powe has definitely been the better performer.  Offensively, Powe has been much better, and defensively, statistics suggest that Powe is a lot closer to BBD than many give credit for.  That being said, I think BBD has looked great over the past couple months, and I'm glad they're both here.  I'd like them both to get minutes over Mikki Moore in the playoffs, since both BBD and Powe are better overall players.


I think the problem, honestly and this will sound weird, is that the stats take into account the entire season.

We all know that Davis' jump shot has been a work in progress all season, but he must have been hitting it in practice at such a clip that the coaching staff thought it was a weapon he could use. However it takes some time to translate a skill from practice to a game. And so, while the coaching staff gave Davis the green light, he wasn't hitting them effectively in games but has gradually developed into an effective weapon. Powe, for all his abilities in the post, must not have nearly as effective a jumper as Davis because he hasn't been asked to shoot it at all.

I believe that having a bench with similar, albeit often limited,  skill sets to the starters is invaluable because it allows the starters the ability to keep their offensive rhythm and balance when one of them goes out to injury or foul trouble.

EX:

PJ & KG- Shot blocking and 15 foot jumpers.
Eddie & Ray- Same screens to set up for jumpers.
Leon & Perk- Rebounding, toughness and post oriented offense.
Big Baby & KG- 15 foot jumper and hustle
Tony & Paul- Slashing ( it is a stretch but there's a reason back up SF is the weakest position on the team)

 So having Baby, who has developed a similar ( and diluted) skill set to KG, start in his absence is important for the Celtics and although his numbers from the start of the season  do not show it, his development into this role has been of extreme importance to the team and will pay off huge in the playoffs.

The numbers from the whole season may not show why Baby merits a start over Leon, but there are good reasons for that. One, I think both Leon and Baby's strong suit is under the basket and numbers are not forgiving to someone being asked to expand their game on the fly, especially when they play limited minutes. Two, it judges them both strictly as Power Forwards , which frankly, Leon isn't offensively on the Celtics. He plays a low post center offense, and God bless him for that because someone has to, and offensive numbers have a great deal of influence in Hollinger's PER. And three, it is frankly easier to score closer to the basket, which is where Leon is being asked to play.


Anyway, there's my two cents.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2009, 08:00:56 PM »

Offline Brickowski

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At the end of games you aren't running your offense through Powe or Davis.  You are running it through Pierce and Ray Allen (and Garnett if he's playing).  Powe clogs the lane for those guys, especially when he's in along with Perk.  BBD sets a mean pick and then pops, which keeps the lane clear for the two main guys.  Plus, if the ball does find its way into Davis' hands, he will find the cutter or the open man.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #42 on: March 07, 2009, 08:42:16 PM »

Offline Chief

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This could be a Scalabrine situation. He starts when KG is out, not to mess up the regular bench rotation. When KG returns, he becomes the 11th man again. :o So I think although Davis is starting, he will be the odd big man out when KG returns. Powe and Moore will likely be the big men off the bench.
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Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2009, 08:44:09 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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This could be a Scalabrine situation. He starts when KG is out, not to mess up the regular bench rotation. When KG returns, he becomes the 11th man again. :o So I think although Davis is starting, he will be the odd big man out when KG returns. Powe and Moore will likely be the big men off the bench.
Scal usually didn't finish games though. Moore has yet to be in during crunch time. I'm not sure Doc will choose him over BBD/Powe.

Re: ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..
« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2009, 09:34:24 PM »

Offline Chief

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This could be a Scalabrine situation. He starts when KG is out, not to mess up the regular bench rotation. When KG returns, he becomes the 11th man again. :o So I think although Davis is starting, he will be the odd big man out when KG returns. Powe and Moore will likely be the big men off the bench.
Scal usually didn't finish games though. Moore has yet to be in during crunch time. I'm not sure Doc will choose him over BBD/Powe.

I'm pretty sure Moore would not agree to come to the Celtics just to sit on the bench. But who knows? :-\
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