ESPN article says Powe > Davis, and its a mystery why he starts..

[BballTim]

You're trying to make 15 for 29 seem like a big pool of data.  As a season, he's 43% overall (in the PF & C spot).  Personally, I don't classify his jump shot as consistent at this point.

But, the primary reason for Hollinger's stat conclusion has more to do with the defense of the team when BBD is on the court.  And with this, I vehemently agree with him.

Yet another example of someone who either doesn't read the entire post or just refuses to listen to what I am saying.

I said over the last 2+ months he's shooting the outside shot consistently. I said ignore the seasonal FG% because it wasn't a good indicator of his current jumpshot(or at least intimated this).

The 15 for 29 is not a big enough number to judge by and even said I wish that Hot Shots would allow for longer views of that stat.

Cordobes(TP4U) just gave you his jump shooting number for his last 92 shots. That I believe, is a large enough indicator of how his shot is falling.

Also if you take his 2009 FG% of 87 for 183 he has been shooting at a very healthy and respectable(for a second year bench player) 47.5%. That so happens to be the exact shooting percentage for the year of Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant.

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

[Brendan]

The logic for BBD is unsupportable and can easily be twisted to be used in favor of Powe. They rest solely on the judgment of the observer. Given that Doc is one of those observers, we should give that some weight, but at the end of the year who (if either) Danny resigns will get some weight too. We need to keep this in mind.

ex1. The compliments the starter meme: Powe is a good finisher and is better compliment to the ball handling of Rondo, Allen, and Pierce. Whereas the BBD is needed with second unit since he's more versatile and adds a front court ball handler when E House is in the game.

ex2. BBD is needed to add size to the front court on D, since he's the second biggest guy on D. Powe provides better help D, like Garnett, primarily through drawing charges and also through weakside help shot blocking.

ex3. With Starbury out there, we need BBD's screening, pick and roll, and pick and pop threat available at the second unit.

Etc.

The arguments in Powe's factor are irrefutable because they are based on stats. The argument for BBD's jump shot is specious at best, since it relies on throwing out the portion of the sample where he was doing poorly, and because we haven't seen Powe asked to shoot. There is a very easy case to be made for selection bias, i.e. that Doc has BBD shooting since he cannot score inside efficiently, whereas Powe is so effective he doesn't need to shoot outside.

Also the team is perfectly comfortable with Perk floating to the top of the key and KG quite often attacks the hoop, so I don't believe Powe just CANNOT fit in with the starters.

[Casperian]

The arguments in Powe's factor are irrefutable because they are based on stats. The argument for BBD's jump shot is specious at best, since it relies on throwing out the portion of the sample where he was doing poorly, and because we haven't seen Powe asked to shoot. There is a very easy case to be made for selection bias, i.e. that Doc has BBD shooting since he cannot score inside efficiently, whereas Powe is so effective he doesn't need to shoot outside.

Yeah, but that defies common sense.
Why would the coach want his players to play one-dimensional? If Powe is open and in position, you really think Doc told him not to take the shot if he could hit it at a reasonable percentage?
And to say Baby would struggle inside is not true, either. Powe is clearly better, but Baby is definitly capable of banging.

The reason why people use a shortened sample size is because we´re talking about a second-year player who has to do something he wasn´t asked of last season, and they just want to point out that this young player is coming along nicely.

[Tommy Gun]

This is a simple question to answer..Davis opens the floor. if you play Leon and Perk you clog the middle. So you bring Powe off the bench and have him bang and post against a weaker second team player.

If baby is given the open J and he hits it that will be an awesome weapon..

So even if Powe is better statistically so what a great 6th man has always been valuable..Maybe even more valuable than a lesser player in the starting rotation.

Second team needs Powe to score on the Box, Rebound play D and pick up charges

[nickagneta]

The logic for BBD is unsupportable and can easily be twisted to be used in favor of Powe. They rest solely on the judgment of the observer. Given that Doc is one of those observers, we should give that some weight, but at the end of the year who (if either) Danny resigns will get some weight too. We need to keep this in mind.

ex1. The compliments the starter meme: Powe is a good finisher and is better compliment to the ball handling of Rondo, Allen, and Pierce. Whereas the BBD is needed with second unit since he's more versatile and adds a front court ball handler when E House is in the game.

ex2. BBD is needed to add size to the front court on D, since he's the second biggest guy on D. Powe provides better help D, like Garnett, primarily through drawing charges and also through weakside help shot blocking.

ex3. With Starbury out there, we need BBD's screening, pick and roll, and pick and pop threat available at the second unit.

Etc.

The arguments in Powe's factor are irrefutable because they are based on stats. The argument for BBD's jump shot is specious at best, since it relies on throwing out the portion of the sample where he was doing poorly, and because we haven't seen Powe asked to shoot. There is a very easy case to be made for selection bias, i.e. that Doc has BBD shooting since he cannot score inside efficiently, whereas Powe is so effective he doesn't need to shoot outside.

Also the team is perfectly comfortable with Perk floating to the top of the key and KG quite often attacks the hoop, so I don't believe Powe just CANNOT fit in with the starters.

How exactly is the argument for BBD's jump shot specious at best? I am not asking anyone to throw out his stats for the beginning of the season. With young players it is all about development. If you can not see that Davis has developed a jump shot over this season, that he has taken it consistently all year and that he is getting better and better at it then I don't know what to say because you would one of very, very few people who couldn't acknowledge seeing this.

Davis's jump shot to begin the season was a joke, however, he has worked on it both on and off the game court and it is dropping at a very respectable rate for nearly half the season now. I can't see how that can be construed as specious.

Also it makes a lot more sense for the coach to ask the player he believes has a much better chance of succeeding at developing a consistent outside shot to go out and develop one by shooting it all the time. The idea that Doc said to himself "well I need an outside shooting big man off the bench and since Baby can't score underneath and Powe can I'll choose him to develop" is absurd. The Celtics have been inaftuated with Baby's outside shot since he was LSU and made three pointers there.

Powe may be able to hit that outside shot but clearly the coaching staff and front office felt that Baby had it already in his arsenal and just needed to bring it out and work on it.

You're trying to make 15 for 29 seem like a big pool of data.  As a season, he's 43% overall (in the PF & C spot).  Personally, I don't classify his jump shot as consistent at this point.

But, the primary reason for Hollinger's stat conclusion has more to do with the defense of the team when BBD is on the court.  And with this, I vehemently agree with him.

Yet another example of someone who either doesn't read the entire post or just refuses to listen to what I am saying.

I said over the last 2+ months he's shooting the outside shot consistently. I said ignore the seasonal FG% because it wasn't a good indicator of his current jumpshot(or at least intimated this).

The 15 for 29 is not a big enough number to judge by and even said I wish that Hot Shots would allow for longer views of that stat.

Cordobes(TP4U) just gave you his jump shooting number for his last 92 shots. That I believe, is a large enough indicator of how his shot is falling.

Also if you take his 2009 FG% of 87 for 183 he has been shooting at a very healthy and respectable(for a second year bench player) 47.5%. That so happens to be the exact shooting percentage for the year of Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant.

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

The answer to your question is very easy and considering the fact that it looks like you pulled your FG% for Rondo's jump shooting off of 82games.com, I'm surprised you can't see the answer. It's simple, Rondo takes his jumpshot a whole lot less often than he shoots other shots. Baby shoots his jumper as a large majority of his shots.

Baby jump shoots 62% of the time. Rondo jump shoots only 42% of the time. Hence as Rondo has gone on in the year and been hitting his shot a bit more consistently it was easier for him to raise his jump shooting percentage higher in a relatively short time. And, to be honest, I never remember Rondo's outside shooting percentage being at 10%. Perhaps very, very, very early in the season when the sampling was extremely small but never after the first 20 games or so.

Also, it is very easy to see by one's own eyes that Rondo still has a lot of trouble with and little confidence in his jumpshot while Baby is not hesitant to take it or having any trouble making it at a percentage that one would deem successful.

[expobear]

This is a simple question to answer..Davis opens the floor. if you play Leon and Perk you clog the middle. So you bring Powe off the bench and have him bang and post against a weaker second team player.

If baby is given the open J and he hits it that will be an awesome weapon..

So even if Powe is better statistically so what a great 6th man has always been valuable..Maybe even more valuable than a lesser player in the starting rotation.

Second team needs Powe to score on the Box, Rebound play D and pick up charges

I think it's a myth that Powe clogs the floor.  Powe and Perkins/Davis are usually opposite the ball on the weakside or they're asked to set screens up high and roll to the hoop. At times, Powe will get an iso and the rest of the team will clear out for him. But all this is done within the flow of the offense. Davis is probably told to go to an open area for a jumper while Powe is told to roll to the hoop and crash the boards.  This is why Davis shoots more jumpers and Powe gets more offensive boards.

[KCattheStripe]

The logic for BBD is unsupportable and can easily be twisted to be used in favor of Powe. They rest solely on the judgment of the observer. Given that Doc is one of those observers, we should give that some weight, but at the end of the year who (if either) Danny resigns will get some weight too. We need to keep this in mind.

ex1. The compliments the starter meme: Powe is a good finisher and is better compliment to the ball handling of Rondo, Allen, and Pierce. Whereas the BBD is needed with second unit since he's more versatile and adds a front court ball handler when E House is in the game.

ex2. BBD is needed to add size to the front court on D, since he's the second biggest guy on D. Powe provides better help D, like Garnett, primarily through drawing charges and also through weakside help shot blocking.

ex3. With Starbury out there, we need BBD's screening, pick and roll, and pick and pop threat available at the second unit.

Etc.

The arguments in Powe's factor are irrefutable because they are based on stats. The argument for BBD's jump shot is specious at best, since it relies on throwing out the portion of the sample where he was doing poorly, and because we haven't seen Powe asked to shoot. There is a very easy case to be made for selection bias, i.e. that Doc has BBD shooting since he cannot score inside efficiently, whereas Powe is so effective he doesn't need to shoot outside.

Also the team is perfectly comfortable with Perk floating to the top of the key and KG quite often attacks the hoop, so I don't believe Powe just CANNOT fit in with the starters.

"Powe is a good finisher and is better compliment to the ball handling of Rondo, Allen, and Pierce. Whereas the BBD is needed with second unit since he's more versatile and adds a front court ball handler when E House is in the game."


Actually this is flawed logic. Baby is a better fit with the first unit because he can score in the paint as well as hit that little jumper. And good lord, I don't want Baby handling the ball. And actually, Leon maybe a better fit with Eddie because of his offensive rebounding abilities, is there a stat that could prove or disprove this?

"BBD is needed to add size to the front court on D, since he's the second biggest guy on D. Powe provides better help D, like Garnett, primarily through drawing charges and also through weakside help shot blocking."

I fail to see the logic in not having a bigger guy playing the other teams starters.

"With Starbury out there, we need BBD's screening, pick and roll, and pick and pop threat available at the second unit."
That's what Mikki Moore is for, and what Baby will be for when Garnett comes back. Problem is you need Baby as a screener for Rondo.

 




 

[crownsy]

You're trying to make 15 for 29 seem like a big pool of data.  As a season, he's 43% overall (in the PF & C spot).  Personally, I don't classify his jump shot as consistent at this point.

But, the primary reason for Hollinger's stat conclusion has more to do with the defense of the team when BBD is on the court.  And with this, I vehemently agree with him.

Yet another example of someone who either doesn't read the entire post or just refuses to listen to what I am saying.

I said over the last 2+ months he's shooting the outside shot consistently. I said ignore the seasonal FG% because it wasn't a good indicator of his current jumpshot(or at least intimated this).

The 15 for 29 is not a big enough number to judge by and even said I wish that Hot Shots would allow for longer views of that stat.

Cordobes(TP4U) just gave you his jump shooting number for his last 92 shots. That I believe, is a large enough indicator of how his shot is falling.

Also if you take his 2009 FG% of 87 for 183 he has been shooting at a very healthy and respectable(for a second year bench player) 47.5%. That so happens to be the exact shooting percentage for the year of Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant.

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

except that rondo is a starting guard, and as such is expected to have a at least average jump shot.

on the other hand, baby is a bench player, and a big besides. 40% on jumpers for a bench big is in fact decent. If he was a gaurd and expected to be a knock down shooter, it wouldn't be.

If he had KG's jumpshot %, he wouldn't be a bench player.

[BballTim]

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

The answer to your question is very easy and considering the fact that it looks like you pulled your FG% for Rondo's jump shooting off of 82games.com, I'm surprised you can't see the answer. It's simple, Rondo takes his jumpshot a whole lot less often than he shoots other shots. Baby shoots his jumper as a large majority of his shots.

Baby jump shoots 62% of the time. Rondo jump shoots only 42% of the time. Hence as Rondo has gone on in the year and been hitting his shot a bit more consistently it was easier for him to raise his jump shooting percentage higher in a relatively short time. And, to be honest, I never remember Rondo's outside shooting percentage being at 10%. Perhaps very, very, very early in the season when the sampling was extremely small but never after the first 20 games or so.

Also, it is very easy to see by one's own eyes that Rondo still has a lot of trouble with and little confidence in his jumpshot while Baby is not hesitant to take it or having any trouble making it at a percentage that one would deem successful.

  Rondo takes a smaller percentage of his shots from the outside than Davis but he takes more shots overall. They both take about the same number of jump shots per game. Since they're both taking (on average) the same number of jump shots it would take them roughly the same amount of time to raise their percentage. Bottom line: they both take about the same number of jumpers per game, they both hit about the same amount (Davis hits a few more but never hits 3s like Rondo) and they've both been hitting a higher persentage of their jump shots as the season's progressed. Rondo might hesitate while BBD doesn't but that doesn't make Davis more consistent, just like the fact that Antoine never hesitated made him a consistent shooter.

[Tommy Gun]

This is a simple question to answer..Davis opens the floor. if you play Leon and Perk you clog the middle. So you bring Powe off the bench and have him bang and post against a weaker second team player.

If baby is given the open J and he hits it that will be an awesome weapon..

So even if Powe is better statistically so what a great 6th man has always been valuable..Maybe even more valuable than a lesser player in the starting rotation.

Second team needs Powe to score on the Box, Rebound play D and pick up charges

I think it's a myth that Powe clogs the floor.  Powe and Perkins/Davis are usually opposite the ball on the weakside or they're asked to set screens up high and roll to the hoop. At times, Powe will get an iso and the rest of the team will clear out for him. But all this is done within the flow of the offense. Davis is probably told to go to an open area for a jumper while Powe is told to roll to the hoop and crash the boards.  This is why Davis shoots more jumpers and Powe gets more offensive boards.

By clogging the floor I mean he only plays close to the basket, just like Perk

[BballTim]

You're trying to make 15 for 29 seem like a big pool of data.  As a season, he's 43% overall (in the PF & C spot).  Personally, I don't classify his jump shot as consistent at this point.

But, the primary reason for Hollinger's stat conclusion has more to do with the defense of the team when BBD is on the court.  And with this, I vehemently agree with him.

Yet another example of someone who either doesn't read the entire post or just refuses to listen to what I am saying.

I said over the last 2+ months he's shooting the outside shot consistently. I said ignore the seasonal FG% because it wasn't a good indicator of his current jumpshot(or at least intimated this).

The 15 for 29 is not a big enough number to judge by and even said I wish that Hot Shots would allow for longer views of that stat.

Cordobes(TP4U) just gave you his jump shooting number for his last 92 shots. That I believe, is a large enough indicator of how his shot is falling.

Also if you take his 2009 FG% of 87 for 183 he has been shooting at a very healthy and respectable(for a second year bench player) 47.5%. That so happens to be the exact shooting percentage for the year of Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant.

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

except that rondo is a starting guard, and as such is expected to have a at least average jump shot.

on the other hand, baby is a bench player, and a big besides. 40% on jumpers for a bench big is in fact decent. If he was a gaurd and expected to be a knock down shooter, it wouldn't be.

If he had KG's jumpshot %, he wouldn't be a bench player.

  But that's a separate issue. Whether BBD shoots well for a reserve or for a big man has no effect on whether or not he shoots a jumper more consistently than Rondo.

[Mr October]

I think it has already been mentioned already. But I think Powe stays on the bench, because the middle would be too clogged and predictable on offense if Perkins and Powe started each half together.

If we had someone like big Z as a starting center, then I think you'd see Powe starting over Davis.

Anyway, i dont think it is that big a deal who starts. We're getting really solid play from both of these guys lately. They looked awesome against Cleveland! Is the Cleveland interior defense really that bad without Ben Wallace? Or are Powe and Davis becoming that good?

[Casperian]

You're trying to make 15 for 29 seem like a big pool of data.  As a season, he's 43% overall (in the PF & C spot).  Personally, I don't classify his jump shot as consistent at this point.

But, the primary reason for Hollinger's stat conclusion has more to do with the defense of the team when BBD is on the court.  And with this, I vehemently agree with him.

Yet another example of someone who either doesn't read the entire post or just refuses to listen to what I am saying.

I said over the last 2+ months he's shooting the outside shot consistently. I said ignore the seasonal FG% because it wasn't a good indicator of his current jumpshot(or at least intimated this).

The 15 for 29 is not a big enough number to judge by and even said I wish that Hot Shots would allow for longer views of that stat.

Cordobes(TP4U) just gave you his jump shooting number for his last 92 shots. That I believe, is a large enough indicator of how his shot is falling.

Also if you take his 2009 FG% of 87 for 183 he has been shooting at a very healthy and respectable(for a second year bench player) 47.5%. That so happens to be the exact shooting percentage for the year of Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant.

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

except that rondo is a starting guard, and as such is expected to have a at least average jump shot.

on the other hand, baby is a bench player, and a big besides. 40% on jumpers for a bench big is in fact decent. If he was a gaurd and expected to be a knock down shooter, it wouldn't be.

If he had KG's jumpshot %, he wouldn't be a bench player.

  But that's a separate issue. Whether BBD shoots well for a reserve or for a big man has no effect on whether or not he shoots a jumper more consistently than Rondo.

...but it affects the relevance of your initial comparison. Baby`s jumper doesn`t have to compete with Rondo`s jumper. It is good enough.

[expobear]

I think it has already been mentioned already. But I think Powe stays on the bench, because the middle would be too clogged and predictable on offense if Perkins and Powe started each half together.

That's why we may see a 3 guard offense without Powe starting so he won't clog up the middle!   

Or then again, maybe, with the C's down to 3 bigs, just maybe, Rivers might start Powe.

[Fafnir]

You're trying to make 15 for 29 seem like a big pool of data.  As a season, he's 43% overall (in the PF & C spot).  Personally, I don't classify his jump shot as consistent at this point.

But, the primary reason for Hollinger's stat conclusion has more to do with the defense of the team when BBD is on the court.  And with this, I vehemently agree with him.

Yet another example of someone who either doesn't read the entire post or just refuses to listen to what I am saying.

I said over the last 2+ months he's shooting the outside shot consistently. I said ignore the seasonal FG% because it wasn't a good indicator of his current jumpshot(or at least intimated this).

The 15 for 29 is not a big enough number to judge by and even said I wish that Hot Shots would allow for longer views of that stat.

Cordobes(TP4U) just gave you his jump shooting number for his last 92 shots. That I believe, is a large enough indicator of how his shot is falling.

Also if you take his 2009 FG% of 87 for 183 he has been shooting at a very healthy and respectable(for a second year bench player) 47.5%. That so happens to be the exact shooting percentage for the year of Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant.

And let's remember, FG% is not always an indicator of whether a player is consistently hitting an outside shot or not. Remember Rondo's FG% is over 51% and I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe that that makes him a good outside shooter or even a consistent one.

  Rondo's hit as well as Davis from the outside over the last 10 games. His jump shot fg% over the season (35.3%) is slightly worse than BBD's (.365), but if you can recall that he started the season shooting poorly and was below 10% for a while you'd have to assume that he's probably also been around 40% for the last 40 games or so. If nobody should be foolish enough to think that Rondo's a consistent outside shooter then you shouldn't be surprised when people think that someone who's numbers are about the same as Rondo's is also inconsistent.

except that rondo is a starting guard, and as such is expected to have a at least average jump shot.

on the other hand, baby is a bench player, and a big besides. 40% on jumpers for a bench big is in fact decent. If he was a gaurd and expected to be a knock down shooter, it wouldn't be.

If he had KG's jumpshot %, he wouldn't be a bench player.

  But that's a separate issue. Whether BBD shoots well for a reserve or for a big man has no effect on whether or not he shoots a jumper more consistently than Rondo.

But it is an issue that is not very relevant to the overall topic of this thread. Which is why does/did BBD have the role he did as KG's replacement.