Zach Harper of CBS Sports has a pretty extensive and fair article today on Philly's dilemma with trading Okafor or Noel. He even dives into some potential trade ideas. I recommend it for those who are interested in the topic. He presents a lot of the negative and some of the positive as well. Pretty good chunk summing it up right here:
With offense always catching everyone's eye and defense typically being harder to quantify, it's pretty easy to call Okafor the "production" guy while slapping the "value" label on Noel. It's true that Okafor, if volume-based, is a legit low-post scorer, and as you can see in the chart below, he personally scored 10 more points per 100 possessions last year than Noel.
Player Season G FG FGA FG% TRB BLK PTS
Nerlens Noel 2015-16 67 7.6 14.6 .521 13.5 2.5 18.6
Jahlil Okafor 2015-16 53 12.2 24.1 .508 11.5 1.9 28.6
Still, that offensive gap notwithstanding, the Sixers were actually 1.9 points per 100 possessions better overall with Noel on the floor. Why? Because defense and rebounding (though Noel only provided two more rebounds per 100 than Okafor) matter a lot more than casual fans like to recognize, and the Sixers were 2.9 points better on defense with Noel in the game.
So does this mean Noel is the better player? Not necessarily. There are a lot of layers to this kind of evaluation, with the most complicated one, perhaps, being that we're talking about a team that has actually been trying to lose. You could argue that both players' true values -- or at least our ability to properly diagnose those values -- have been compromised in that sort of environment, as they've been playing next to, at times, woefully inferior talent in a system effectively set up for them to fail on some level.
For instance, we might even be undervaluing Okafor's scoring ability, as he was basically a top-10 post scorer last year even without the benefit of legit perimeter threats to keep the defense spaced and honest. When factoring in post-up possessions with passes, only 10 players in the NBA last season had more of these possessions than Okafor, who generated 88.5 points per 100 possessions in those situations, good enough for 11th out of the 15 players with at least 350 of these post-up possessions ( he was sandwiched between Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph). Only two players Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Love, generated at least one full point per possession.
Pretty simply, Okafor was one of the better scoring big men in the NBA as a rookie. He was also the fourth-most efficient scorer (minimum 80 possessions) on offensive put-backs (1.298 PPP behind LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis and Derrick Favors), the fifth-most efficient big man in transition and the 26th-most efficient scorer in pick-and-roll for a roll man while also having the 17th highest field-goal percentage in these situations.
These aren't mind-blowing numbers by any means, but they're impressive for a rookie whose best point guard he played with all season was Ish Smith. Noel, meanwhile, has just two seasons under his belt and has already received as high as a third-place vote for Defensive Player of the Year. So there is presumably a lot more development in store for both these guys.
There's a lot more there to read about:
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/examining-sixers-dilemma-trade-noel-or-okafor-looking-at-possible-deals/He goes on to suggest Noel might be easier to trade and comes up with some ideas of his own. You'll be interested in the Celtic idea, of course... it's an ol standby:
Marcus Smart for Nerlens Noel
Some people are very high on Smart's potential. In many ways, he's a lot like Noel -- a lights-out defender with elite potential on that end, but a serious project on the offensive end. Smart, in fact, had the worst two-year shooting start to a career in NBA history, but he's a better offensive weapon than you'd assume and did show flashes of a work-in-progress jumper in the playoffs.
From the Sixers' perspective, this addresses their perimeter issues, and while you could argue you're selling low on Noel here, you could also argue you'd be buying low on Smart. For Boston, it would be all about roster flexibility.
The Celtics are guard-heavy at the moment, and adding Noel would give them one of the best defensive frontcourts in basketball (if not the best) with Jae Crowder, Noel and Horford. Also, he'd be a great lob partner for guys like Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley to use in the pick-and-roll. You can play Noel with Kelly Olynyk, as well, to cover up Olynyk's defensive issues.
Look, it's not a perfect deal for either side, but it's not bad at all. It's something both sides should be thinking about right now. It could end up yielding great value both ways in a win-win down the road.
His other ideas for trading NOel involve moving him for Tyreke Evans + a 1st from the Pelicans... Ricky Rubio + Shabazz Muhammad from the Wolves, and a couple others. At the very least, this gives you some sense of what this guy views Marcus Smart's trade value as.
He suggests trading Okafor for equal value would be more difficult and speculates that the Lakers might be a destination with the return being Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, Lou Williams, and a protected 1st rounder - though it's a deal that can't be completed until December 14th, because of Clarkson's new contract.
I agree with most of what he's saying, though I don't necessarily agree they should trade one of them before the start of the season.
Topic: Woj: Sixers plan on moving one of Noel or Okafor "eventually" (Read 80948 times)