Shams: Porzingis to Boston?

[Who]

Jokic shot a ridiculous 80% FG% against Washington this season en route to 37ppg 13rpg and 7apg on an insane 87% TS%.

Okay, so Porzingis only played in 1 of the 2 matchups against Denver. So half of that came without Porzingis. DEN blew WAS out in Q3 so both guys played reduced minutes. Porzingis with 25pts in 22min with strong shooting but only 3 rebonds. Jokic with 31pts 12reb 7ast 3stl with an 85% TS%. Red hot. It is also interesting that WAS started D Gafford persumably to defend Jokic in order to protect Porzinigs from the matchup. That clearly did not work.   

[Who]

Giannis played 3 games against Washington. Porzingis played all 3 games. I presume it was Kuzma who defended Giannis leaving Porzignis as the main big help defender.

Giannis averaged 35.3ppg in 35.2mpg. He added 10rpg and 10apg for a triple double. He shot 58% from the field and had a 65% TS%.

Porzingis had 23ppg 9rpg 3apg on 47% FG% 54% TS%. I presume B Lopez was doing a lot of that defending on Porzingis.

[lrybrd]

Although I am somewhat sad to see Marcus go, I rather him go than Brogdon.  For all of the extra possessions that Marcus gave to us and great passes, there were silly decisions and bad passes leading to empty trips.  His decision making and ball security (especially late in games) was questionable to say the least (remember the bonehead fouls against Miami at half court during late in one of the losses to Miami). He also never checked his ego at the door (I.e., his comment about the fact that he was a good shooter and would continue to chuck if left open).  I also thought his defensive intensity was down last year.  This team needs a culture change and it wasn’t happening with Marcus here. 

I think JWhite can hold down the fort as point guard and he was on second team all defense.  And while Brogdon stunk in Miami, he was hurt and was great for us all season and in the prior playoff series.

I still think that we need a closer or someone with some basketball iq to settle us down and close out games for us.  I would love Dame but I don’t think that is going to happen.  I do believe someone like Chris Paul (if he gets bought out) would be valuable for us.

[johnnygreen]

I do wonder why the Celtics were so eager to get Porzingis. Does the team and Porzingis have a general idea of a framework for an extension that would coincide with have two supermax players?

[theswitch]

It seems to me Porzingis is a fine and positive defender but not a major plus in that category. He's going to patrol the paint and swat away some balls but he's probably not skilled or willed enough to nullify a star opponent. Offensively, he's clearly a difference-maker.

Washington with him on the court was 118.5 per 100 possessions on offense and 117.0 on defense.

Without him, they were 112.8 on offense and 117.1 on defense. So no change defensively whether he played or didn't, but a major drop offensively. Rebounding stayed about the same (improved defensively but worse offensively probably because he plays near the perimeter so frequently).

His offensive win shares was 5.0 which is really good, defense was pretty darn solid at at 2.7. 5.0 is good for 26th in the league and was his best season by a mile. 2.7 isn't particularly bad either at 42nd and he's been in that range a few times in his career. He was 67th in defensive box plus / minus and 25th in offensive box plus / minus. Offensive RAPTOR was +3.1, defensive RAPTOR was +1.7.

I don't have a single advanced metric I point to as a Bible, but the smattering of data points here suggests he's truly going to change the course of our offense in a positive way while also being a clear positive on defense, albeit maybe not good enough to take away a Giannis or Jokic (but who is?).

[RJ87]

Interesting last couple of pages: Late picks will flop; team will be soft - is mentally weak; what if KP is injured; Mazzula can't develop players (or coach in general); big risk; will be in tear down mode if they fall short next season... 

CStrong has been filled with posts over the last couple of months about balancing the roster.  Brad brings in a 7'3" 23ppg scorer plus 2 solid assets for Smart and 2 guys who never played, and some here don't want to discuss the plus side.   

Celtics roster is crazy talented, and Brad isn't done.

TP. Everyone claims they want change until change actually happens.

This is a good trade for us. Get a borderline All-Star big man and 2 firsts for Marcus Smart? That's selling high.

I mostly loved Marcus, but his DPOY season is probably the best he's ever going to be. His defense inexplicably fell off a cliff last season (didn't get a single All-Defense vote last season). He's also not the pinnacle of health himself and he's pushing 30. Do people really think his style of play will age well?

[bdm860]

Smart wanted to be the alpha and he just wasn’t. Celtics had to get clarity

My guess is smart and joe had issues

I can confirm I've heard from my sauces that Smart was overbearing at times with both Ime and Joe but for whatever reason Ime turned Smart energy on the court into a defensive monster where Joe struggled with his new defensive player of the year.

I don’t exactly remember, but did Smart “take over” timeouts during Ime’s time as he did numerous times with Joe?

Believe so. Believe there probably was some issues between smart and Joe as smart was quite outspoken criticizing Joe. Don’t think smart was shy among the team to express his lack of buy in. He took joe’s seat during a timeout even.

Maybe Brad felt like change was needed off the court as well as on

I don’t buy this entirely. Smart would still be here if the first deal with the Clippers didn’t fall through.

Yeah, I don't think their preference was to trade Smart.  I think Brad recognized that we'd continue to struggle at times without an inside scoring presence, so he made the best deal on the table.

I've seen some people (fans, not insiders) speculate that this might have been 2 separate trades the C's were working on, and this is how they were able to pivot so quickly.

BOS/WAS/LAC with Brogdon out and Porzingis in.  Then also BOS/MEM with the C's getting 2 firsts and Tyus Jones.

[theswitch]

I'm overall excited about the deal after sleeping on it due to the sheer offensive firepower on this roster now. The identity has sure changed over two seasons but my goodness will this team score points. Three major questions loom over that:

1. Health, health, health. Is Brogdon okay? Will Time Lord be there? Will Zinger make it? Horford hold up? These are true points of failure now. Maybe they always were for the big guys but feels like more pressure on Brogdon's health since now Smart isn't there. Time Lord and Horford always had to be.

2. Are we still switching everything? I'm not sure that's the best strategy with two of Porzingis, Horford, Rob on the floor. You want those guys in the paint. We at least have to mix it up with drop defense rather than relying on them chasing smaller guys on switches. They're there to make the floor smaller with their length, and switching culture opens it back up when it's cleared out. Teams can still win with a drop coverage with enough hustle on the ballhandler defender's part, or you can do the old school KG show defense if you trust your rotations. That to me is the biggest question here.

3. Who is going to create for others? Now, this isn't a new issue. It's not like Smart was some offensive maestro orchestrating an incredible system but he did have 6+ assists for a couple seasons. So maybe not so much is lost here as much as it reshines the light on an issue for the team. That puts a lot more pressure on Derrick White and Jayson Tatum to fill that role. I think it's actually more natural for Tatum than it is for White, but it's really asking him to go from being a clear superstar to being a clear best player or two in the league. Only a couple of guys are capable of really handling that point forward role effectively and running the offense. He may have to do it.

Exciting stuff. Just a lot of work to do and it also shines a greater light on whether Joe is going to be able to be the guy for it because these are system switching events.

[BitterJim]

I'm overall excited about the deal after sleeping on it due to the sheer offensive firepower on this roster now. The identity has sure changed over two seasons but my goodness will this team score points. Three major questions loom over that:

1. Health, health, health. Is Brogdon okay? Will Time Lord be there? Will Zinger make it? Horford hold up? These are true points of failure now. Maybe they always were for the big guys but feels like more pressure on Brogdon's health since now Smart isn't there. Time Lord and Horford always had to be.

2. Are we still switching everything? I'm not sure that's the best strategy with two of Porzingis, Horford, Rob on the floor. You want those guys in the paint. We at least have to mix it up with drop defense rather than relying on them chasing smaller guys on switches. They're there to make the floor smaller with their length, and switching culture opens it back up when it's cleared out. Teams can still win with a drop coverage with enough hustle on the ballhandler defender's part, or you can do the old school KG show defense if you trust your rotations. That to me is the biggest question here.

3. Who is going to create for others? Now, this isn't a new issue. It's not like Smart was some offensive maestro orchestrating an incredible system but he did have 6+ assists for a couple seasons. So maybe not so much is lost here as much as it reshines the light on an issue for the team. That puts a lot more pressure on Derrick White and Jayson Tatum to fill that role. I think it's actually more natural for Tatum than it is for White, but it's really asking him to go from being a clear superstar to being a clear best player or two in the league. Only a couple of guys are capable of really handling that point forward role effectively and running the offense. He may have to do it.

Exciting stuff. Just a lot of work to do and it also shines a greater light on whether Joe is going to be able to be the guy for it because these are system switching events.

Agreed, TP. It seems like we'll be committing to more of the 2 big lineups, and running more of a drop big system might make sense if we do. I'll also note that the two major coaching hires came from systems that generally keep a big man near the basket defensively (the 6ers with Embiid and the Bucks with Lopez).

Changing the defensive philosophy would make the Grant fit more awkward, so I wonder if that might help motivate Brad to look for a S&T deal that gets us a wing or a big that fits a drop system better

[cman88]

Interesting last couple of pages: Late picks will flop; team will be soft - is mentally weak; what if KP is injured; Mazzula can't develop players (or coach in general); big risk; will be in tear down mode if they fall short next season... 

CStrong has been filled with posts over the last couple of months about balancing the roster.  Brad brings in a 7'3" 23ppg scorer plus 2 solid assets for Smart and 2 guys who never played, and some here don't want to discuss the plus side.   

Celtics roster is crazy talented, and Brad isn't done.

TP. Everyone claims they want change until change actually happens.

This is a good trade for us. Get a borderline All-Star big man and 2 firsts for Marcus Smart? That's selling high.

I mostly loved Marcus, but his DPOY season is probably the best he's ever going to be. His defense inexplicably fell off a cliff last season (didn't get a single All-Defense vote last season). He's also not the pinnacle of health himself and he's pushing 30. Do people really think his style of play will age well?

it is kind of funny. After we lost against Miami its all "trade smart! trade Brown! trade tatum!" then we trade smart and now its "how could you trade smart!"

[Celtics4ever]

That is the fan base for you, CMAN, it was a shocker ...

[NHHillbilly]

Interesting last couple of pages: Late picks will flop; team will be soft - is mentally weak; what if KP is injured; Mazzula can't develop players (or coach in general); big risk; will be in tear down mode if they fall short next season... 

CStrong has been filled with posts over the last couple of months about balancing the roster.  Brad brings in a 7'3" 23ppg scorer plus 2 solid assets for Smart and 2 guys who never played, and some here don't want to discuss the plus side.   

Celtics roster is crazy talented, and Brad isn't done.

TP. Everyone claims they want change until change actually happens.

This is a good trade for us. Get a borderline All-Star big man and 2 firsts for Marcus Smart? That's selling high.

I mostly loved Marcus, but his DPOY season is probably the best he's ever going to be. His defense inexplicably fell off a cliff last season (didn't get a single All-Defense vote last season). He's also not the pinnacle of health himself and he's pushing 30. Do people really think his style of play will age well?

I think it is a great point that Smart has reached his peak defensively. He always had a little bit of trouble with very fast guards, and the Celtics are probably going to be playing teams with guys like DeAaron Fox, Haliburton, and others with Smart having aging legs. I think this is an all-in move by the Celtics for a championship. Tatum and Brown are on a trajectory to keep getting better, but Smart most probably will be on the downhill.
I hope Smart's personality has a good effect on Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are moving on from Dillion Brooks. Smart plays hard and tough without having other players hate him. The Grizzlies need that.

[cman88]

That is the fan base for you, CMAN, it was a shocker ...

to be honest i'm still kind of torn on the move.

On one hand, Smart had grit, hes the heart and soul of the team. been here for 9 years and has improved greatly as a player.

On the other hand,

maybe being the longest tenured player on the team and such a big personality he never really accepted his role. he viewed himself as part of the "big 3" hes mentioned before and was a leader on that team. now, its more important than ever that Brown/Tatum be those leaders.

I mean talent wise, Brogdon/White are just as good/if not better offensively. And white is coming into his own defensively. But it always was Smarts history here with the core that always seemed to me to make trading Brogdon easier. even though offensively he is much better and is proven to have been a starting point guard averaging 20ppg for some teams.

Clearly the ownership/management feels that while the team is right there on the doorstep. they are missing something to get over the hump and that this core needed a shakeup.

I honestly thought they were going to just run it back next year. seems Brad/Wyc view it differently.

[Roy H.]

So, the modified trade substituted:

Smart, #35 for Brogdon, #25, GSW #1

Fair value?

[keevsnick]

Waking up and seeing this whole thing my initial reaction is that this Smart deal made a heck of a lot more sense when it was happening WITH the Brogdon for KP deal. DO that deal as originally constructed then flip Smart for 2 firsts, Tyus Jones (really solid PG), keep #35. Thats a solid asset play.

But now with Brogdons injury worries they had to fold Smart into the KP deal so they lose out on Tyus Jones and #35 + Muscala who had to be included because Smart makes less than Brogdon.

So now the C's seem really low on passing and may be stuck with Brogdon who they just very publicly tried to move.

Another move needs to come to bring in a real PG.