sign howard

[Roy H.]

Is Marcin going to grab 20% of available rebounds next year?  30% defensive boards?

26.3% and 18.4% last year, respectively.  Dwight gets about 2 more rebounds every 100 attempts, which is pretty negligible. 

He going to double his free throw attempts.

There's a reason that Dwight gets so many FT attempts.  People haven't invented the "Hack a Gortat" strategy, because he his 70% of his FTs. 

Set a career mark in block percentage and field goal percentage?

Gortat hit 57% of his shots, and can actually shoot beyond 10 feet.  Dwight made exactly 2 shots beyond 10 feet all season.

Dwight blocks about 0.7 shots more per 100 attempts than Gortat does.

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

[crimson_stallion]

Player A: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, .592 TS%, 1.6 turnovers, 114 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 30.1 minutes

Player B: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, .604 TS%, 2.3 turnovers, 110 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 32.1 minutes

Player A leads in VORP, BPM, PER and WS, as well as scoring and assists per minute.

Anybody want to give Marcin Gortat $31 million per year? That's the level of player we'd get with Howard, except Gortat doesn't have the baggage and can hit his FTs.

* Is Marcin Gortat a three time Defensive Player of the year?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-Star?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-NBA team selection and a 5 time all-defensive team selection?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 14th all time in rebounds per game and 4th all time in total rebound percentage?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 21st all time in total blocks, 22nd all time in defensive rating and 28th all time in defensive win shares?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 4th all time in career field goal percentage, 25th all time in free throw attempts, and have a career scoring efficiency of 1.6 Points Per FGA, a career 81% Free Throw Rate, and a career scoring average of 18 PPG?

* Has Gortat ever made a contender out of a team of role players?

Gortat's 13.5 PPG this season was the second highest of his career - he overachieved.  Howard's 13.7 PPG this year was the second lowest of his career - he dramatically underachieved on a team that isn't making use of his talents.

Dwight Howard has PROVEN throughout his career that he is capable of being a 18/12 guy if you use him the right way.  It's very easy to demonstrate from the numbers alone that any drop in production is a direct result of:

1) Reduced minutes
2) Reduced offensive touches / role

This leaves plenty of reason to believe that if he is given more touches and/or minutes, he's capable of producing at or near a superstar level.

Gortat has never so much as sniffed those numbers, and his current numbers are well in line with what he's put up his entire career- in fact they're at the higher end of his career numbers.  That's a very different scenario. 

That said, I wouldn't mind Gortat on the team for the right price - always liked him.

[PhoSita]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

Because when healthy and involved in the offense he's absolutely worth 10 million more a year than the Gortats of the world, and the Celts have more cap space than they are likely to know what to do with this summer.

That's my position.  I know you disagree with me on the first part, and I know plenty of people have that cap space earmarked for blockbuster deals and marquee free agent signings.

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

[Donoghus]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

How about "none of the above"?

For what Howard is most likely going to get on the open market, I'm passing. 

[crimson_stallion]

Is Marcin going to grab 20% of available rebounds next year?  30% defensive boards?

26.3% and 18.4% last year, respectively.  Dwight gets about 2 more rebounds every 100 attempts, which is pretty negligible. 

He going to double his free throw attempts.

There's a reason that Dwight gets so many FT attempts.  People haven't invented the "Hack a Gortat" strategy, because he his 70% of his FTs. 

Set a career mark in block percentage and field goal percentage?

Gortat hit 57% of his shots, and can actually shoot beyond 10 feet.  Dwight made exactly 2 shots beyond 10 feet all season.

Dwight blocks about 0.7 shots more per 100 attempts than Gortat does.

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

Dwight averages about 6.7 FTA per game (despite the fact that he's underused) and makes 49% of those. 

That means he's giving you 3.3 free points every night and drawing 7 team fouls.  That latter means that:

1) Your team gets in the bonus sooner - which means free foul shots for everybody 
2) The opponent's players get in foul trouble sooner - which puts pressure on the defence

Even if you counter the foul trouble by putting crappy players on Dwight (whom you don't care if they foul out) - that means Dwight is forcing you to take your best players out and replace them with weaker players just so that you can afford to waste fouls.

It doesn't matter how you look at it, having a guy who draws fouls like Dwight is a gold mine.

As is having a guy who makes over 60% of his shots, and a guy who can score 1.6 Points Per FGA.  That latter means you have a guy who can score without having to take lots of shots - that is always a good thing.

Having a guy who gives you 12 rebounds a game - also a good thing.

Having a guy who has such a reputation as a shot blocker that his sheer presence intimidates guys from driving to the basket - also a good thing.  Having Dwight in the paint on defence is like having Kyle Korver on the perimeter on offence - even if he's not doing anything, he's still in the opponent's head.

Chuck Gortat on the Rockets and give him 8 field goal attempts a game (as Houston did to Dwight this year), then see how many points he scores.  Gortat averaged just over 10 FGA per game this year.  If Dwight got that many touches he'd have averaged up around 16 PPG to go with his 12 rebounds.   

[crimson_stallion]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

Because when healthy and involved in the offense he's absolutely worth 10 million more a year than the Gortats of the world, and the Celts have more cap space than they are likely to know what to do with this summer.

That's my position.  I know you disagree with me on the first part, and I know plenty of people have that cap space earmarked for blockbuster deals and marquee free agent signings.

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

Precisely.

When he's engaged and playing to his abilities, Dwight is STILL a top 5 center in the NBA.

Seriously, who is better?  You have Cousins and probably Drummond.  Maybe Pau Gasol.  Maybe At a real squeeze you can try to include Deandre Jordan and Greg Monroe in there, but that's really pushing it.

There's nobody else who even comes close really.

[PhoSita]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

How about "none of the above"?

For what Howard is most likely going to get on the open market, I'm passing.

I mean, I guess my question is, what is the alternative here?  What ARE you going to do? 

If a trade for a guy like Cousins doesn't happen, if the Celts can't sign Horford, are you going to spend that money, or just fall back on youth and accept that the team may be worse next year?


Maybe signing Dwight to a max sounds unappealing to you.  But he fits the basic profile of what the Celts desperately need inside.

If you don't go with Dwight, the other options aren't a whole lot better.

Whiteside at the max for four years?  I can't stomach that.

Would you trade for three years of Tyson Chandler at $15 million or whatever he's making?

Maybe the Celts could trade for three years of Gortat at $13-14 million.  I'd be OK with that, but I think the Wizards want to make the playoffs next year.

Robin Lopez is a less exciting option, though I've always liked him.  Maybe he could be had.  I'm not sure how much he'd help on the boards, though.

Greg Monroe should be available.  Pau is a free agent.  But those guys would present some challenges for roster construction even as they provide solutions to some of the current issues.


Bottom line, there really aren't any ideal solutions.

[Roy H.]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

Because when healthy and involved in the offense he's absolutely worth 10 million more a year than the Gortats of the world, and the Celts have more cap space than they are likely to know what to do with this summer.

That's my position.  I know you disagree with me on the first part, and I know plenty of people have that cap space earmarked for blockbuster deals and marquee free agent signings.

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

Production wise, he's not worth a penny more than Gortat. 

And, we're not talking $10 million more.  We're talking $19 million more.  Only 12 player in the entire NBA make $19 million, and that's how much *more* you want to pay him than Marcin Gortat -- a player who was almost statistically identical, and who advanced metrics say was better.

[Roy H.]

Player A: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, .592 TS%, 1.6 turnovers, 114 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 30.1 minutes

Player B: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, .604 TS%, 2.3 turnovers, 110 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 32.1 minutes

Player A leads in VORP, BPM, PER and WS, as well as scoring and assists per minute.

Anybody want to give Marcin Gortat $31 million per year? That's the level of player we'd get with Howard, except Gortat doesn't have the baggage and can hit his FTs.

* Is Marcin Gortat a three time Defensive Player of the year?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-Star?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-NBA team selection and a 5 time all-defensive team selection?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 14th all time in rebounds per game and 4th all time in total rebound percentage?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 21st all time in total blocks, 22nd all time in defensive rating and 28th all time in defensive win shares?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 4th all time in career field goal percentage, 25th all time in free throw attempts, and have a career scoring efficiency of 1.6 Points Per FGA, a career 81% Free Throw Rate, and a career scoring average of 18 PPG?

* Has Gortat ever made a contender out of a team of role players?

As my four year old daughter can recite by heart, "the past is in the past".



How many DPOYs has Dwight won lately?

Only suckers pay for past production.  Danny isn't a sucker.

[Donoghus]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

How about "none of the above"?

For what Howard is most likely going to get on the open market, I'm passing.

I mean, I guess my question is, what is the alternative here?  What ARE you going to do? 

If a trade for a guy like Cousins doesn't happen, if the Celts can't sign Horford, are you going to spend that money, or just fall back on youth and accept that the team may be worse next year?


Maybe signing Dwight to a max sounds unappealing to you.  But he fits the basic profile of what the Celts desperately need inside.

If you don't go with Dwight, the other options aren't a whole lot better.

Whiteside at the max for four years?  I can't stomach that.

Would you trade for three years of Tyson Chandler at $15 million or whatever he's making?

Maybe the Celts could trade for three years of Gortat at $13-14 million.  I'd be OK with that, but I think the Wizards want to make the playoffs next year.

Robin Lopez is a less exciting option, though I've always liked him.  Maybe he could be had.  I'm not sure how much he'd help on the boards, though.

Greg Monroe should be available.  Pau is a free agent.  But those guys would present some challenges for roster construction even as they provide solutions to some of the current issues.


Bottom line, there really aren't any ideal solutions.

Not pay Dwight Howard 30 million a year for starters.   This team doesn't need to make a big splash this offseason just for the sake of making a splash.  Obviously, it'd be nice to get a big fish on this team but its not an absolute necessity and I'm certainly not doing it to destroy cap potential down the road (which is what I'm thinking will happen with the Howard contract.  It'll become an albatross for someone sooner rather than later). 

You can address the frontcourt issues with stop gaps if necessary.  They don't NEED to get one of the big names there. 

It all doesn't begin & end with summer of 2016.  I think too many people on this board seem to be hung up that it is and that's its an abject failure if the Celtics don't make a splash.

[PhoSita]

And, we're not talking $10 million more.  We're talking $19 million more.

Right which is why (in my view) we're talking about a $9-10 million overpay.  But I understand that you see it as a $19 million overpay.

We disagree on that, and I think it's that simple.  If I felt he was only worth $12-13 million, I wouldn't agree with giving him a max, either.

[crimson_stallion]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

Because when healthy and involved in the offense he's absolutely worth 10 million more a year than the Gortats of the world, and the Celts have more cap space than they are likely to know what to do with this summer.

That's my position.  I know you disagree with me on the first part, and I know plenty of people have that cap space earmarked for blockbuster deals and marquee free agent signings.

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

Production wise, he's not worth a penny more than Gortat. 

And, we're not talking $10 million more.  We're talking $19 million more.

The problem is that you are completely ignoring context, and you're looking at nothing but box scores.

You completely ignore the fact that Dwight Howard's production this year was a worst-case scenario from a guy who is being underutilised offensively while being buried behind one of the most blatant chuckers in the entire league.

You complete ignore the fact that, if he were given a bigger role in the offence (which he'd almost certainly get in Boston) his numbers would jump back up to well beyond Gortat's offensive production.

You're completely ignoring the fact that Dwight is one of the top 3 or 4 rebounders in the NBA right now, and Gortat is not.

You're completely ignoring that Dwight Howard is one of the most efficient offensive players in NBA history, and that this season was one of the most efficient of his entire career.

You're completely ignoring that Dwight Howard has proven experience as a guy who has led teams deep in the playoffs - Gortat does not.

One of those guys is capable of dominating at will when put in the right scenario - the other guy is just a really solid and productive big man.   

[strokeracevt]

Bismack Biyombo. The guy place with a ton of energy and hustle. Is only getting better and will be cheaper than DH.

[Roy H.]

It's true that Dwight is not leaps and bounds ahead of other pure centers in the league anymore (literally or figuratively -- ha!).  He's not worth 20 million a year more than the Gortats of the world.

Agreed.  So why are we having this discussion?

Because when healthy and involved in the offense he's absolutely worth 10 million more a year than the Gortats of the world, and the Celts have more cap space than they are likely to know what to do with this summer.

That's my position.  I know you disagree with me on the first part, and I know plenty of people have that cap space earmarked for blockbuster deals and marquee free agent signings.

I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather overpay Dwight than pay 10-15 million a year to bring back Jared Sullinger or Evan Turner, for example.

Production wise, he's not worth a penny more than Gortat. 

And, we're not talking $10 million more.  We're talking $19 million more.

The problem is that you are completely ignoring context, and you're looking at nothing but box scores.

You completely ignore the fact that Dwight Howard's production this year was a worst-case scenario from a guy who is being underutilised offensively while being buried behind one of the most blatant chuckers in the entire league.

You complete ignore the fact that, if he were given a bigger role in the offence (which he'd almost certainly get in Boston) his numbers would jump back up to well beyond Gortat's offensive production.

You're completely ignoring the fact that Dwight is one of the top 3 or 4 rebounders in the NBA right now, and Gortat is not.

You're completely ignoring that Dwight Howard is one of the most efficient offensive players in NBA history, and that this season was one of the most efficient of his entire career.

You're completely ignoring that Dwight Howard has proven experience as a guy who has led teams deep in the playoffs - Gortat does not.

One of those guys is capable of dominating at will when put in the right scenario - the other guy is just a really solid and productive big man.

I think you're confusing "fact" with "hope".

And, the days of Dwight "dominating at will" are behind him, if they ever existed in the first place.

[chilidawg]

Player A: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, .592 TS%, 1.6 turnovers, 114 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 30.1 minutes

Player B: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, .604 TS%, 2.3 turnovers, 110 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 32.1 minutes

Player A leads in VORP, BPM, PER and WS, as well as scoring and assists per minute.

Anybody want to give Marcin Gortat $31 million per year? That's the level of player we'd get with Howard, except Gortat doesn't have the baggage and can hit his FTs.

* Is Marcin Gortat a three time Defensive Player of the year?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-Star?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-NBA team selection and a 5 time all-defensive team selection?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 14th all time in rebounds per game and 4th all time in total rebound percentage?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 21st all time in total blocks, 22nd all time in defensive rating and 28th all time in defensive win shares?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 4th all time in career field goal percentage, 25th all time in free throw attempts, and have a career scoring efficiency of 1.6 Points Per FGA, a career 81% Free Throw Rate, and a career scoring average of 18 PPG?

* Has Gortat ever made a contender out of a team of role players?

Gortat's 13.5 PPG this season was the second highest of his career - he overachieved.  Howard's 13.7 PPG this year was the second lowest of his career - he dramatically underachieved on a team that isn't making use of his talents.

Dwight Howard has PROVEN throughout his career that he is capable of being a 18/12 guy if you use him the right way.  It's very easy to demonstrate from the numbers alone that any drop in production is a direct result of:

1) Reduced minutes
2) Reduced offensive touches / role

This leaves plenty of reason to believe that if he is given more touches and/or minutes, he's capable of producing at or near a superstar level.

Gortat has never so much as sniffed those numbers, and his current numbers are well in line with what he's put up his entire career- in fact they're at the higher end of his career numbers.  That's a very different scenario. 

That said, I wouldn't mind Gortat on the team for the right price - always liked him.

Wilt Chamberlin put up amazing numbers throughout his career, but I don't think we should sign him.  You sign people for what they can do going forward, not what they've done in the past.  Howard should be signed as a 24 minute a game guy and paid accordingly.