sign howard

[crimson_stallion]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

None of those guys are significant improvements on what we already have on this first round exit roster.

Mosgov is a role player.  Biyombo is a role player.  Ezeli and powell are role players.  Ezeli probably the best out of those,  but hes not going to make this team a force in the East.

Maybe Monroe of he's available, but In still not sure if he will fit the team or not.

I get the question marks with Howard, i just dont think tgere id's anybody else available right now who has a better chance at pushing us to contender status.

All weve had lately (bar Thomas) has been role players coming and going, making a minimal impact along the way.  We need more then that.

I think the guy that really moves the bar for this franchise going forward is going to be a swing/wing & not a big, whether its acquired via FA, draft, or trade.  I don't think it's going to be in the form of a big man & certainly not a soon to be 31 year old.

While I appreciate your perspective on this, I have to respectfully disagree.

On the perimeter we currently have:
1) An All-Star point guard
2) A 15 PPG shooting guard who finished in the top 10 for DPOTY voting
3) A 14 PPG small forward who is also a top shelf (and very versatile) defender

In the front court the only guys we have on guaranteed contracts next year are Olynyk and Mickey. 

If we want to really elevate this team to contender status, then we probably will need to eventually upgrade either Bradley or Crowder.  However if we don't upgrade our frontcourt we'll be struggling to even make the playoffs.

I wholeheartedly acknowledge that Howard has some high risks - injury being the main one I worry about.  Personality is a bit of a risk, but it doesn't concern me THAT much.  If our locker room can handle guys like Big Baby and Jared Sullinger, then I don't think Howard would pose that big a problem. 

Lets put it this way - Howard would only cost a fraction more then Al Horford, and he is a far superior player.

[crimson_stallion]

Also one thing people massively over dramatise with Dwight - his free throw woes.

Here is the FTM per game for all of our current starters:

* Isaiah Thomas: 5.8
* Avery Bradley: 1.3
* Jae Crowder: 2.7
* Jared Sullinger: 1.3
* Amir Johnson: 0.9

Dwight Howard averaged 3.3 Free Throws Made for the season.  That means he's scoring more points off free throws then anybody else in our starting five bar Thomas.

So at then end of they day, who actually CARES if Dwight only shoots 49% from the line?   He draws so many fouls that even at that terrible rate, he STILL makes more free throws then 90% of the guys on our roster.  He makes almost THREE TIMES as many free throws as Sullinger did this year

This is why the whole free throw argument is such a fruitless one.  Dwight Howard has a Free Throw Rate of 79%.  Seventy Nine Percent!!!  One quarter of all his points this season came off free throws.  If teams want to try to hack Dwight every time he touches the ball, then they're going to (on average) give up one point and one personal foul every time they do it.  Let them hack away all they want. 

Another thing people don't talk about with Dwight Howard - his absolute dominance in the
paint.  There are people here who say Dwight Howard isn't a dominant inside scorer anymore. 

Ha! 

Dwight took 66% of all his field goal attempts inside three feet, and he shot a ridiculous 75%
on those shots.  If that isn't dominance then I don't know what is.  When Dwight catches the ball in the paint you pretty much have two options - hack him (and give up a point and a Personal Foul) or don't hack him and give up an almost certain 2 points.

If you double team him, that's fine too.  He's made a living from passing out of double teams to open shooters - that's was basically the cornerstone of Orlando's offence when Dwight took them to the finals.

As I said earlier, the only thing limiting Dwight's scoring is the number of touches you give him.  If you give him the ball then chances are he's either going to score, get to the line, or draw a double and kick it out to an open shooter.  Put 2 or 3 half respectable shooters around him (Even Thomas, Bradley and Crowder would be sufficient) and playing through Dwight is a recipe for success.

Houston and LA failed because they didn't acknowledge that.  They were too obsessed with making their high-volume chuckers happy that Dwight mostly became an afterthought in those offences. 

Also the current day NBA (with the tendancy to go small ball) is the perfect time to go for a guy like Dwight.  Every team is pushing towards small ball, and frontcourt lineups are getting smaller and smaller  The number of starting bigs who can handle a guy like Dwight inside are getting lower and lower.  Introduce some anarchy - stop playing by everybody elses rules and do a complete 360 - take the opposite approach to what everybody else is doing. 

When everybody went big, a couple of teams broke the field wide open by going against logic and playing small.  Once every team goes small, it's going to be harder and harder to beat them at their own game - the best way to beat them will be to go against logic and go big, attack their lack of size.

If we get Dwight, he'll murder most team's undersized bigs.  Just stick a stretch four next to him who's a half decent P&R defender (Thad Young, Kelly Olynyk, etc), and you are pretty much set. 

[moiso]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

None of those guys are significant improvements on what we already have on this first round exit roster.

Mosgov is a role player.  Biyombo is a role player.  Ezeli and powell are role players.  Ezeli probably the best out of those,  but hes not going to make this team a force in the East.

Maybe Monroe of he's available, but In still not sure if he will fit the team or not.

I get the question marks with Howard, i just dont think tgere id's anybody else available right now who has a better chance at pushing us to contender status.

All weve had lately (bar Thomas) has been role players coming and going, making a minimal impact along the way.  We need more then that.

I think the guy that really moves the bar for this franchise going forward is going to be a swing/wing & not a big, whether its acquired via FA, draft, or trade.  I don't think it's going to be in the form of a big man & certainly not a soon to be 31 year old.

While I appreciate your perspective on this, I have to respectfully disagree.

On the perimeter we currently have:
1) An All-Star point guard
2) A 15 PPG shooting guard who finished in the top 10 for DPOTY voting
3) A 14 PPG small forward who is also a top shelf (and very versatile) defender

In the front court the only guys we have on guaranteed contracts next year are Olynyk and Mickey. 

If we want to really elevate this team to contender status, then we probably will need to eventually upgrade either Bradley or Crowder.  However if we don't upgrade our frontcourt we'll be struggling to even make the playoffs.

I wholeheartedly acknowledge that Howard has some high risks - injury being the main one I worry about.  Personality is a bit of a risk, but it doesn't concern me THAT much.  If our locker room can handle guys like Big Baby and Jared Sullinger, then I don't think Howard would pose that big a problem. 

Lets put it this way - Howard would only cost a fraction more then Al Horford, and he is a far superior player.

I agree with most of what you have been saying and I'm all for signing Howard,  but personality is a much bigger risk when you are talking about one of your best players.  Jerks like Howard or Cousins are going to divide a locker room far more than insignificant scrubs like Big Baby and Sullinger.  Nobody else has to be influenced by guys who don't matter.

[TheSundanceKid]

Also one thing people massively over dramatise with Dwight - his free throw woes.

Here is the FTM per game for all of our current starters:

* Isaiah Thomas: 5.8
* Avery Bradley: 1.3
* Jae Crowder: 2.7
* Jared Sullinger: 1.3
* Amir Johnson: 0.9

Dwight Howard averaged 3.3 Free Throws Made for the season.  That means he's scoring more points off free throws then anybody else in our starting five bar Thomas.

So at then end of they day, who actually CARES if Dwight only shoots 49% from the line?   He draws so many fouls that even at that terrible rate, he STILL makes more free throws then 90% of the guys on our roster.  He makes almost THREE TIMES as many free throws as Sullinger did this year

This is why the whole free throw argument is such a fruitless one.  Dwight Howard has a Free Throw Rate of 79%.  Seventy Nine Percent!!!  One quarter of all his points this season came off free throws.  If teams want to try to hack Dwight every time he touches the ball, then they're going to (on average) give up one point and one personal foul every time they do it.  Let them hack away all they want. 

Another thing people don't talk about with Dwight Howard - his absolute dominance in the
paint.  There are people here who say Dwight Howard isn't a dominant inside scorer anymore. 

Ha! 

Dwight took 66% of all his field goal attempts inside three feet, and he shot a ridiculous 75%
on those shots.  If that isn't dominance then I don't know what is.  When Dwight catches the ball in the paint you pretty much have two options - hack him (and give up a point and a Personal Foul) or don't hack him and give up an almost certain 2 points.

If you double team him, that's fine too.  He's made a living from passing out of double teams to open shooters - that's was basically the cornerstone of Orlando's offence when Dwight took them to the finals.

As I said earlier, the only thing limiting Dwight's scoring is the number of touches you give him.  If you give him the ball then chances are he's either going to score, get to the line, or draw a double and kick it out to an open shooter.  Put 2 or 3 half respectable shooters around him (Even Thomas, Bradley and Crowder would be sufficient) and playing through Dwight is a recipe for success.

Houston and LA failed because they didn't acknowledge that.  They were too obsessed with making their high-volume chuckers happy that Dwight mostly became an afterthought in those offences. 

Also the current day NBA (with the tendancy to go small ball) is the perfect time to go for a guy like Dwight.  Every team is pushing towards small ball, and frontcourt lineups are getting smaller and smaller  The number of starting bigs who can handle a guy like Dwight inside are getting lower and lower.  Introduce some anarchy - stop playing by everybody elses rules and do a complete 360 - take the opposite approach to what everybody else is doing. 

When everybody went big, a couple of teams broke the field wide open by going against logic and playing small.  Once every team goes small, it's going to be harder and harder to beat them at their own game - the best way to beat them will be to go against logic and go big, attack their lack of size.

If we get Dwight, he'll murder most team's undersized bigs.  Just stick a stretch four next to him who's a half decent P&R defender (Thad Young, Kelly Olynyk, etc), and you are pretty much set.

Isn't the point of the FT woes more related to points per play? If Howard is at the line they will score 0.98ppp, whereas the general offense will score higher than that? For us the ppp was 1.039. So Dwight may have more FTM but it is a less efficient offense.

He could quite easily get to 60% if he had the right teacher and at that point it becomes irrelevant because he wouldn't be worth fouling as often.

I agree that he is still dominant inside the paint, putting him with Isaiah would provide a great PnR option for this team. My concern would be his ability to stay healthy for the whole season as we would be investing too much money in him to afford a suitable replacement to spell him.

I understand going against the trend but that would be I don't think adding Howard does that. The trend is really at the 4 spot with guys who can switch onto the wing positions. Occasionally we see things like the "Death" line-up but it is not the norm and wouldn't work for 48 mins. It requires a special player. If we got Howard I believe we would play a Jerebko type at the 4 which would be very effective. Most teams still have a traditional big man in their lineup. Even Horford or Towns are traditional big men, they have just added an extra dimension to their game with the 3 pt shot.

[crimson_stallion]

Also one thing people massively over dramatise with Dwight - his free throw woes.

Here is the FTM per game for all of our current starters:

* Isaiah Thomas: 5.8
* Avery Bradley: 1.3
* Jae Crowder: 2.7
* Jared Sullinger: 1.3
* Amir Johnson: 0.9

Dwight Howard averaged 3.3 Free Throws Made for the season.  That means he's scoring more points off free throws then anybody else in our starting five bar Thomas.

So at then end of they day, who actually CARES if Dwight only shoots 49% from the line?   He draws so many fouls that even at that terrible rate, he STILL makes more free throws then 90% of the guys on our roster.  He makes almost THREE TIMES as many free throws as Sullinger did this year

This is why the whole free throw argument is such a fruitless one.  Dwight Howard has a Free Throw Rate of 79%.  Seventy Nine Percent!!!  One quarter of all his points this season came off free throws.  If teams want to try to hack Dwight every time he touches the ball, then they're going to (on average) give up one point and one personal foul every time they do it.  Let them hack away all they want. 

Another thing people don't talk about with Dwight Howard - his absolute dominance in the
paint.  There are people here who say Dwight Howard isn't a dominant inside scorer anymore. 

Ha! 

Dwight took 66% of all his field goal attempts inside three feet, and he shot a ridiculous 75%
on those shots.  If that isn't dominance then I don't know what is.  When Dwight catches the ball in the paint you pretty much have two options - hack him (and give up a point and a Personal Foul) or don't hack him and give up an almost certain 2 points.

If you double team him, that's fine too.  He's made a living from passing out of double teams to open shooters - that's was basically the cornerstone of Orlando's offence when Dwight took them to the finals.

As I said earlier, the only thing limiting Dwight's scoring is the number of touches you give him.  If you give him the ball then chances are he's either going to score, get to the line, or draw a double and kick it out to an open shooter.  Put 2 or 3 half respectable shooters around him (Even Thomas, Bradley and Crowder would be sufficient) and playing through Dwight is a recipe for success.

Houston and LA failed because they didn't acknowledge that.  They were too obsessed with making their high-volume chuckers happy that Dwight mostly became an afterthought in those offences. 

Also the current day NBA (with the tendancy to go small ball) is the perfect time to go for a guy like Dwight.  Every team is pushing towards small ball, and frontcourt lineups are getting smaller and smaller  The number of starting bigs who can handle a guy like Dwight inside are getting lower and lower.  Introduce some anarchy - stop playing by everybody elses rules and do a complete 360 - take the opposite approach to what everybody else is doing. 

When everybody went big, a couple of teams broke the field wide open by going against logic and playing small.  Once every team goes small, it's going to be harder and harder to beat them at their own game - the best way to beat them will be to go against logic and go big, attack their lack of size.

If we get Dwight, he'll murder most team's undersized bigs.  Just stick a stretch four next to him who's a half decent P&R defender (Thad Young, Kelly Olynyk, etc), and you are pretty much set.

Isn't the point of the FT woes more related to points per play? If Howard is at the line they will score 0.98ppp, whereas the general offense will score higher than that? For us the ppp was 1.039. So Dwight may have more FTM but it is a less efficient offense.

He could quite easily get to 60% if he had the right teacher and at that point it becomes irrelevant because he wouldn't be worth fouling as often.

I agree that he is still dominant inside the paint, putting him with Isaiah would provide a great PnR option for this team. My concern would be his ability to stay healthy for the whole season as we would be investing too much money in him to afford a suitable replacement to spell him.

I understand going against the trend but that would be I don't think adding Howard does that. The trend is really at the 4 spot with guys who can switch onto the wing positions. Occasionally we see things like the "Death" line-up but it is not the norm and wouldn't work for 48 mins. It requires a special player. If we got Howard I believe we would play a Jerebko type at the 4 which would be very effective. Most teams still have a traditional big man in their lineup. Even Horford or Towns are traditional big men, they have just added an extra dimension to their game with the 3 pt shot.

Believe me, offensive efficiency is certainly not something you ever have to worry about with Dwight Howard!

To put it into perspective:
* Sully averaged 1.03 Pts Per FGA
* Bradley averaged 1.13 Pts Per FGA
* Olynyk averaged 1.23 Pts Per FGA
* Crowder averaged 1.28 Pts Per FGA
* Isaiah Thomas averaged 1.31 Pts Per FGA
* Amir Johnson averaged 1.35 Pts Per FGA

To put it further into perspective:
* Demarcus Cousins averaged 1.31 Pts Per FGA
* Lebron averaged 1.36 Pts Per FGA
* Kevin Durant averaged 1.46 Pts Per FGA
* Steph Curry averaged 1.49 Pts Per FGA

To put it EVEN MORE into perspective, for their careers:
* Tim Duncan averaged 1.3 Pts Per FGA
* Jordan averaged 1.31 Pts Per FGA
* Wilt Chamberlain averaged 1.33 Pts Per FGA
* Kareem averaged 1.36 Pts Per FGA
* Bird averaged 1.39 Pts Per FGA
* David Robinson averaged 1.46 Pts Per FGA
* Magic averaged 1.47 Pts Per FGA
* Shaq averaged 1.47 Pts Per FGA

Dwight Howard averaged a ridiculous 1.61 Pts Per FGA this season and 1.63 Pts Per FGA over the course of his career. Not only is that (to my knowledge) by far the highest offensive efficiency of any player in the NBA right now, it may well be (also by far) the highest career number in NBA history.

Even scarier is that in his best season, he actually averaged just over 1.7 Pts Per FGA. 

Look up 'offensive efficiency' in the dictionary and you will probably see a photo of Dwight Howard looking at you with one of those goofy grins he does.

[Celtics4ever]

He can play.   It is his lack of leadership and selfishness that scares me.   Always puts himself first and team last.

[Otsje P]

Isn't the point of the FT woes more related to points per play? If Howard is at the line they will score 0.98ppp, whereas the general offense will score higher than that? For us the ppp was 1.039. So Dwight may have more FTM but it is a less efficient offense.

That is in fact correct, but you have to take something else into account. Opponents will get into foul trouble earlier, resulting in more free throws for our team. People like Isaiah and Crowder will get to shoot more free throws as well, and that will only boost our teams ppp.

[crimson_stallion]

Isn't the point of the FT woes more related to points per play? If Howard is at the line they will score 0.98ppp, whereas the general offense will score higher than that? For us the ppp was 1.039. So Dwight may have more FTM but it is a less efficient offense.

That is in fact correct, but you have to take something else into account. Opponents will get into foul trouble earlier, resulting in more free throws for our team. People like Isaiah and Crowder will get to shoot more free throws as well, and that will only boost our teams ppp.

A key factor that people often fail to take in to consideration, so TP for you!!!

Dwight played in 5 playoff games this season (against the Warriors) and in those 5 games he attempted 11, 4, 6, 13 and 4 free throw attempts.

His numbers across those games:

* 14 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 5 turnovers - 30 mins
* 12 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 3 turnovers - 35 mins
* 13 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 2 turnovers - 33 mins
* 19 points, 15 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 1 blocks, 2 turnovers - 36 mins
* 8 points, 21 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 0 turnovers, 45 mins

If that isn't consistency, then I don't know what is.

Since the big 3 era ended, the biggest thing this team has lacked is consistent production. Every recent Celtics team has been filled with guys who's production swings radically from one night to the next. 

Guys like Sullinger, Jerebko, Johnson, Jordan Crawford, Marcus Thorton, Marcus Smart, Tyler Zeller, David Lee, Kelly Olynyk.  These are all guys who (for every 10 games) will give you at best three good games, 4-5 average games and 2-3 complete stinkers.

When we added Thomas we finally picked up a guy who produced for us on a consistent basis.  Unlike the other guys, every 10 games Thomas would have 2 elite games, 5 good games and 2 average games and 1 bad game. 

We could count on Thomas to give us 20 just about every single night, and as a result we took the big jump from being a fringe playoff team, to being a team that held the #3 seed for most of the season.

That's the difference between a star player, and a talented role player.  The star will produce for you on a nightly basis, with the occasional poor game from time to time.  The talented role player will give you mediocre production on a nightly basis, with the occasional good game from time to time. 

All the great teams out there - the Cavs, the Warriors, the Spurs, the Clippers, the Thunder, etc - are all great because they have one or two guys who they can count on to produce almost every night.  Acquiring Thomas took the Celtics one step closer to being one of those teams, but we're still one or two consistent players away from being on the level of those teams. 

Dwight could be the next piece - he's a guy who will give you double figure scoring and rebounding almost every single night, along with the occasional dominant defensive performance here and there. 

With Dwight and Isaiah we would have two guys who we can depend on to produce for us night in, night out.  When you have two such guys, you can then kinda afford to have guys like Crowder, Sully, Smart and Amir taking times to give you a good game here and there.

[TheSundanceKid]

Also one thing people massively over dramatise with Dwight - his free throw woes.

Here is the FTM per game for all of our current starters:

* Isaiah Thomas: 5.8
* Avery Bradley: 1.3
* Jae Crowder: 2.7
* Jared Sullinger: 1.3
* Amir Johnson: 0.9

Dwight Howard averaged 3.3 Free Throws Made for the season.  That means he's scoring more points off free throws then anybody else in our starting five bar Thomas.

So at then end of they day, who actually CARES if Dwight only shoots 49% from the line?   He draws so many fouls that even at that terrible rate, he STILL makes more free throws then 90% of the guys on our roster.  He makes almost THREE TIMES as many free throws as Sullinger did this year

This is why the whole free throw argument is such a fruitless one.  Dwight Howard has a Free Throw Rate of 79%.  Seventy Nine Percent!!!  One quarter of all his points this season came off free throws.  If teams want to try to hack Dwight every time he touches the ball, then they're going to (on average) give up one point and one personal foul every time they do it.  Let them hack away all they want. 

Another thing people don't talk about with Dwight Howard - his absolute dominance in the
paint.  There are people here who say Dwight Howard isn't a dominant inside scorer anymore. 

Ha! 

Dwight took 66% of all his field goal attempts inside three feet, and he shot a ridiculous 75%
on those shots.  If that isn't dominance then I don't know what is.  When Dwight catches the ball in the paint you pretty much have two options - hack him (and give up a point and a Personal Foul) or don't hack him and give up an almost certain 2 points.

If you double team him, that's fine too.  He's made a living from passing out of double teams to open shooters - that's was basically the cornerstone of Orlando's offence when Dwight took them to the finals.

As I said earlier, the only thing limiting Dwight's scoring is the number of touches you give him.  If you give him the ball then chances are he's either going to score, get to the line, or draw a double and kick it out to an open shooter.  Put 2 or 3 half respectable shooters around him (Even Thomas, Bradley and Crowder would be sufficient) and playing through Dwight is a recipe for success.

Houston and LA failed because they didn't acknowledge that.  They were too obsessed with making their high-volume chuckers happy that Dwight mostly became an afterthought in those offences. 

Also the current day NBA (with the tendancy to go small ball) is the perfect time to go for a guy like Dwight.  Every team is pushing towards small ball, and frontcourt lineups are getting smaller and smaller  The number of starting bigs who can handle a guy like Dwight inside are getting lower and lower.  Introduce some anarchy - stop playing by everybody elses rules and do a complete 360 - take the opposite approach to what everybody else is doing. 

When everybody went big, a couple of teams broke the field wide open by going against logic and playing small.  Once every team goes small, it's going to be harder and harder to beat them at their own game - the best way to beat them will be to go against logic and go big, attack their lack of size.

If we get Dwight, he'll murder most team's undersized bigs.  Just stick a stretch four next to him who's a half decent P&R defender (Thad Young, Kelly Olynyk, etc), and you are pretty much set.

Isn't the point of the FT woes more related to points per play? If Howard is at the line they will score 0.98ppp, whereas the general offense will score higher than that? For us the ppp was 1.039. So Dwight may have more FTM but it is a less efficient offense.

He could quite easily get to 60% if he had the right teacher and at that point it becomes irrelevant because he wouldn't be worth fouling as often.

I agree that he is still dominant inside the paint, putting him with Isaiah would provide a great PnR option for this team. My concern would be his ability to stay healthy for the whole season as we would be investing too much money in him to afford a suitable replacement to spell him.

I understand going against the trend but that would be I don't think adding Howard does that. The trend is really at the 4 spot with guys who can switch onto the wing positions. Occasionally we see things like the "Death" line-up but it is not the norm and wouldn't work for 48 mins. It requires a special player. If we got Howard I believe we would play a Jerebko type at the 4 which would be very effective. Most teams still have a traditional big man in their lineup. Even Horford or Towns are traditional big men, they have just added an extra dimension to their game with the 3 pt shot.

Believe me, offensive efficiency is certainly not something you ever have to worry about with Dwight Howard!

To put it into perspective:
* Sully averaged 1.03 Pts Per FGA
* Bradley averaged 1.13 Pts Per FGA
* Olynyk averaged 1.23 Pts Per FGA
* Crowder averaged 1.28 Pts Per FGA
* Isaiah Thomas averaged 1.31 Pts Per FGA
* Amir Johnson averaged 1.35 Pts Per FGA

To put it further into perspective:
* Demarcus Cousins averaged 1.31 Pts Per FGA
* Lebron averaged 1.36 Pts Per FGA
* Kevin Durant averaged 1.46 Pts Per FGA
* Steph Curry averaged 1.49 Pts Per FGA

To put it EVEN MORE into perspective, for their careers:
* Tim Duncan averaged 1.3 Pts Per FGA
* Jordan averaged 1.31 Pts Per FGA
* Wilt Chamberlain averaged 1.33 Pts Per FGA
* Kareem averaged 1.36 Pts Per FGA
* Bird averaged 1.39 Pts Per FGA
* David Robinson averaged 1.46 Pts Per FGA
* Magic averaged 1.47 Pts Per FGA
* Shaq averaged 1.47 Pts Per FGA

Dwight Howard averaged a ridiculous 1.61 Pts Per FGA this season and 1.63 Pts Per FGA over the course of his career. Not only is that (to my knowledge) by far the highest offensive efficiency of any player in the NBA right now, it may well be (also by far) the highest career number in NBA history.

Even scarier is that in his best season, he actually averaged just over 1.7 Pts Per FGA. 

Look up 'offensive efficiency' in the dictionary and you will probably see a photo of Dwight Howard looking at you with one of those goofy grins he does.

That is very good. It does also back up my point though, that in crunch time it is better to foul Dwight intentionally than let him play. Although he'd need crazy FT numbers for a big man to swing it the other way!

Isn't the point of the FT woes more related to points per play? If Howard is at the line they will score 0.98ppp, whereas the general offense will score higher than that? For us the ppp was 1.039. So Dwight may have more FTM but it is a less efficient offense.

That is in fact correct, but you have to take something else into account. Opponents will get into foul trouble earlier, resulting in more free throws for our team. People like Isaiah and Crowder will get to shoot more free throws as well, and that will only boost our teams ppp.

That's a good point that I hadn't thought about. I have said for a while that we need more people who can get to the line. It's the Achilles heel of a jump shooting team. Before Isaiah got here it was downright atrocious to watch. Howard would certainly address some of that. It is still a concern but I agree with the two of you that it is overblown.

Health is my biggest concern. I'm don't think he's declining athletically but he does need to look after his body better.At least on that front I would be happier signing him than Horford.

He can play.   It is his lack of leadership and selfishness that scares me.   Always puts himself first and team last.

I think this criticism is one that is wrong. He has made bad choices in his career that have painted the picture that he doesn't care, however I think it's more that basketball isn't the be all and end all for him. That probably stops him being an All time great but who really cares? He would be an effective big man on this team. On the leadership standpoint I'm less concerned because I don't think he comes into our locker room with the aura of Durant or KG etc. He doesn't need to be the leader of this team and I think he'd be ok with that. He'd be the highest paid but that would be for his production rather than his leadership.

[trickybilly]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

None of those guys are significant improvements on what we already have on this first round exit roster.

Mosgov is a role player.  Biyombo is a role player.  Ezeli and powell are role players.  Ezeli probably the best out of those,  but hes not going to make this team a force in the East.

Maybe Monroe of he's available, but In still not sure if he will fit the team or not.

I get the question marks with Howard, i just dont think tgere id's anybody else available right now who has a better chance at pushing us to contender status.

All weve had lately (bar Thomas) has been role players coming and going, making a minimal impact along the way.  We need more then that.

I think the guy that really moves the bar for this franchise going forward is going to be a swing/wing & not a big, whether its acquired via FA, draft, or trade.  I don't think it's going to be in the form of a big man & certainly not a soon to be 31 year old.

While I appreciate your perspective on this, I have to respectfully disagree.

On the perimeter we currently have:
1) An All-Star point guard
2) A 15 PPG shooting guard who finished in the top 10 for DPOTY voting
3) A 14 PPG small forward who is also a top shelf (and very versatile) defender

In the front court the only guys we have on guaranteed contracts next year are Olynyk and Mickey. 

If we want to really elevate this team to contender status, then we probably will need to eventually upgrade either Bradley or Crowder.  However if we don't upgrade our frontcourt we'll be struggling to even make the playoffs.

I wholeheartedly acknowledge that Howard has some high risks - injury being the main one I worry about.  Personality is a bit of a risk, but it doesn't concern me THAT much.  If our locker room can handle guys like Big Baby and Jared Sullinger, then I don't think Howard would pose that big a problem. 

Lets put it this way - Howard would only cost a fraction more then Al Horford, and he is a far superior player.

*Locker Room groans at prospect of having to support Sully's weight another year*

(not an all-star Sully fat joke, but these need to be made, we're obligated to search them out, wherever they might hide)

[CelticPride2016]

Howard is past his prime, pass.

Yeah, dude is totally done...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rck7l7peKBo

Thanks for the video. Dwight looks phenomenal in it and proves the point that he will drive the other teams into the penalty. He seems to have gotten more efficient around the hoop.

I don't understand the animosity directed towards him. Signing Dwight wouldn't cost a thing. It would instantly turn us into true contenders. He still has a few years left of prime. He's not that old. If he would accept a two or three year deal, I'd roll the dice.

Olynyk and Howard would be a nice front court or go with Jerebko or (Mickey if he emerges) to cover the faster, craftier athletic pf's. But I'm putting the cart before the horse. Danny would have to be insane to not make a big offer to Dwight. He's exactly what this team is missing.

I think we could win a championship by signing Dwight alone. I think signing him would constitute fireworks. I'd bring back Amir. Goodbye to Zeller and Sully. Amir could play backup center to Howard. This makes perfect sense in how to compete for a title immediately. And we should be getting a rotation player through the draft or by trading the pick.

That video contradicts anyone saying Howard is past his prime. Dwight could start for three more years and then turn into a backup. He is still a great player. Or sign him for two years and $50 million. What would the risk be in that? Such a signing would signify we are competing for title #18 starting next season, just like we knew we were finally there after all the 2007 Danny moves.

Or let's give away half the assets in order to get Cousins? How does that make sense instead of reaching out to Superman? Watch the video?

[alldaboston]

I have really started to like the idea of Dwight joining us.

My only issues are
1. FT shooting and Hack a Howard (but we could see changes to the rules this summer)
2. Injuries
3. Attitude at times.

Otherwise, he would be an absolutely fantastic fit for us.

[Roy H.]

I have really started to like the idea of Dwight joining us.

My only issues are
1. FT shooting and Hack a Howard (but we could see changes to the rules this summer)
2. Injuries
3. Attitude at times.

Otherwise, he would be an absolutely fantastic fit for us.

... and being paid $31 million.  Spending 35% of the cap on a guy in decline, with a bad back, and who admitted being mentally checked out seems like a bad idea. 

Howard's defense was so dominant that he anchored a bottom-10 defense last year.  Show him the money!

[LooseCannon]

I have really started to like the idea of Dwight joining us.

My only issues are
1. FT shooting and Hack a Howard (but we could see changes to the rules this summer)
2. Injuries
3. Attitude at times.

Otherwise, he would be an absolutely fantastic fit for us.

... and being paid $31 million.  Spending 35% of the cap on a guy in decline, with a bad back, and who admitted being mentally checked out seems like a bad idea. 

Howard's defense was so dominant that he anchored a bottom-10 defense last year.  Show him the money!

Does that mean that the Celtics shouldn't spend any significant dollars or trade assets to acquire any big man who anchored a bottom ten defense this season?

[Roy H.]

I have really started to like the idea of Dwight joining us.

My only issues are
1. FT shooting and Hack a Howard (but we could see changes to the rules this summer)
2. Injuries
3. Attitude at times.

Otherwise, he would be an absolutely fantastic fit for us.

... and being paid $31 million.  Spending 35% of the cap on a guy in decline, with a bad back, and who admitted being mentally checked out seems like a bad idea. 

Howard's defense was so dominant that he anchored a bottom-10 defense last year.  Show him the money!

Does that mean that the Celtics shouldn't spend any significant dollars or trade assets to acquire any big man who anchored a bottom ten defense this season?

If he's going to take up 35% of the cap, I'll pass.