sign howard

[PhoSita]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

[SHAQATTACK]

Bozo

Of the NBA

No thanks

[Roy H.]

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

OK, you lost me there.

Jared Sullinger:  15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes

Dwight Howard:  15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.6 turnovers per 36 rebounds

crimson_stallion is arguing in support of Dwight citing per-36 minutes numbers.  I don't find Dwight's to be particularly impressive.

Well, you purposely left out the FG%, which crimson_stallion included.

Kind of a relevant factor there.  Also FTA.  Pretty significant part of Dwight's game.


Look, I buy your argument that Dwight isn't worth so much more than Gortat.  We just disagree about the extent to which that's true, and the opportunity cost of signing Dwight to a max.

You lose me with the comparison to Sullinger.  Seems like you're at the point of disregarding what Dwight can, without any question, do really well.


I sympathize with what CR is saying about the fact that the Celts don't have any certified two-way starters locked up for next year.  Arguably, they didn't have anybody meeting that description this year.

It's the biggest hole on this roster right now.  Add a couple of two way starter-caliber bigs and this team probably beats Atlanta.

Issue: two-way bigs that can give you 30+ minutes are the second hardest piece to add in this league after perennial All-Stars.  If you don't draft and develop one -- which the Celts have failed utterly to do -- you have to overpay, sometimes drastically -- to get one.  Otherwise, you've got to gamble on backups and foreign free agents and hope you find a diamond in the rough.

Citing Per-36 minutes stats is useless, as is citing Howard's numbers from when he was 26 years old.  I'm not the one who made that a central focus of the debate.

15 points and 13 rebounds per 36 minutes just isn't that impressive.  Sully did it, and he's far from impressive.  If those are the numbers Howard is bringing for $31 million per season, Howard would immediately have the worst contract in the NBA.

[crimson_stallion]

Please allow me to repeat myself for you - perhaps you didn't see me prior post.

In the past 5 seasons Dwight has averaged Per 36 numbers of:

* 19.4 points on 12.6 FGA, 13,7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.4 steals, 57% FG
* 17.1 points on 10.8 FGA, 12.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.1 steals, 58% FG
* 19.5 points on 12.0 FGA, 13.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.9 steals, 59% FG
* 19.0 points on 12.5 FGA, 12.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.6 blocks, 0.8 steals, 59% FG
* 15.4 Points on 9.5 FGA, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.1 steals, 62% FG

I saw it.  I'm just not sure how relevant per-36 numbers from when Dwight was 26 years old are.

15 points and 13 rebounds per 36 minutes isn't max contract worthy to me.  Using the lofty standards of 14 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes, 38 guys qualified.

Player A:  15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes

Player B:  15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.6 turnovers per 36 rebounds

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

Umm dude...aren't you the one ehp said something like "haven't you been around the past 5 seasons"?.

Those are his stats for the past 5 seasons.  Why make a point about his production the past 5 years, only to then do a 360 and question my referring to exactly those numbers?  What, those numbers were only ok to bring up when they supporyed your argument - now that you realise they werent so bad, they're suddenly irrelevant?

Also with all due respect comparing to Sully"s Per 36 stats is just plain Silly.  Sully couldn't play 30 minutes in a season if his life (or next contract) depended on it.  He struggles to stay onthe court for 26 minutes without his stats declining.

Dwight has averaged 30 MPG only once in his career (even the it was like 29.7 MPG) and is coming off a season where he averaged 32 MPG on a team where he was a distant second option.

Sully also proved this year that he completely disappears on the big stage - consistently making stupid bonehead plays at the end of games, and basically disappearing over the entire playoffs this year.  Dwight has been a beast in every playoff hes been a part of - he's a guy you can depend on to contribute on the big stage.

Also Sully was one of the most inefficient bigs in the NBA this year offensively, while Howard was probably the most or second most efficient.

The point of a per36 listing is it shows that while Dwight is on the court, hos overall production is that of a superstar center.   If he's only playing 32 mins, he's still producing like a star for 32 minutes.

KG was only playing 28-30 mins most of his time in Boston, and i think it's pretty obvious how much impact he had on the team's success.  Dwight could be the next KG for us.

[PhoSita]

15 points and 13 rebounds per 36 minutes just isn't that impressive.  Sully did it, and he's far from impressive.  If those are the numbers Howard is bringing for $31 million per season, Howard would immediately have the worst contract in the NBA.

I agree with you that citing raw box score per-36 numbers is unpersuasive.

To me, the numbers that are persuasive are 20%, 30%, 4%, 60%, and 8.

That is, 20% TRB, 30% DRB, 4% BLK, 60% FG, and 8 FTA.

Dwight is in his 30s now, and doesn't exactly hit those marks anymore.  He's still been close though, even in up-and-down years with Houston.  I think there's a good chance he could have a little bit of a renaissance on the Celts.  If he gets more touches and takes 10-12 FGA a game, his numbers would look pretty good. 

I trust Stevens to use him well in ways that D'Antoni and the Harden Rockets could not.

But I acknowledge it could go the other way.  It's a risk.  I understand why people don't love the idea.  I'd be thrilled about it at 2 years, on board but worried about a 3rd year, and 100% against a 4th year.

[crimson_stallion]

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

OK, you lost me there.

Jared Sullinger:  15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes

Dwight Howard:  15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.6 turnovers per 36 rebounds

crimson_stallion is arguing in support of Dwight citing per-36 minutes numbers.  I don't find Dwight's to be particularly impressive.

Well, you purposely left out the FG%, which crimson_stallion included.

Kind of a relevant factor there.  Also FTA.  Pretty significant part of Dwight's game.


Look, I buy your argument that Dwight isn't worth so much more than Gortat.  We just disagree about the extent to which that's true, and the opportunity cost of signing Dwight to a max.

You lose me with the comparison to Sullinger.  Seems like you're at the point of disregarding what Dwight can, without any question, do really well.


I sympathize with what CR is saying about the fact that the Celts don't have any certified two-way starters locked up for next year.  Arguably, they didn't have anybody meeting that description this year.

It's the biggest hole on this roster right now.  Add a couple of two way starter-caliber bigs and this team probably beats Atlanta.

Issue: two-way bigs that can give you 30+ minutes are the second hardest piece to add in this league after perennial All-Stars.  If you don't draft and develop one -- which the Celts have failed utterly to do -- you have to overpay, sometimes drastically -- to get one.  Otherwise, you've got to gamble on backups and foreign free agents and hope you find a diamond in the rough.

Citing Per-36 minutes stats is useless, as is citing Howard's numbers from when he was 26 years old.  I'm not the one who made that a central focus of the debate.

15 points and 13 rebounds per 36 minutes just isn't that impressive.  Sully did it, and he's far from impressive.  If those are the numbers Howard is bringing for $31 million per season, Howard would immediately have the worst contract in the NBA.

Since when in NBA history has 15 points and 13 rebounds not been impressive???

Yeah Sully averaged it, and you know what? It was impressive.  If he combined that with 60% FG, an 80% FTR, a 7'5" wingspan and the conditioning to play 30+ minutes a might, then id throw $30m at Sully too.

But he doesn't.  Hence why Dwight is worth a max deal and Sully isnt.  I would have thought that pretty self explanatory, but perhaps not, so spelling it out anyway.

Also per36 stats are not useless unless you're using them the wrong way.

Per 36 stats are a means to measure a players scoring rate.  It's a method for standardizing a players level of production per minute of time spent on the court, which in turn gives some insight in to a player's potential impact.

Am i suggesting that Dwight will play 36 minutes and average 19 amd 14 if he comes here?  Of course not.  But his minutes this year weren't THAT far out of the 36 minute ballpark (32 MPG) so hes got the potential to put up probably 15 and 12 in 32 minutes if he gets a few extra touches on offense, which he almost certainly would get here.

15 and 12 on 60% shooting would make him the best big Boston has had since KG was in his early 30s.

Using the per36 measure for amenity like sully is less useful since everybody knows he's incapable of playing over 30 mins and remaining effective.

[Donoghus]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

[PhoSita]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

As long as Ainge does something that has a good chance of significantly improving upon what we saw in the playoffs, I'm on board.

[crimson_stallion]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

None of those guys are significant improvements on what we already have on this first round exit roster.

Mosgov is a role player.  Biyombo is a role player.  Ezeli and powell are role players.  Ezeli probably the best out of those,  but hes not going to make this team a force in the East.

Maybe Monroe of he's available, but In still not sure if he will fit the team or not.

I get the question marks with Howard, i just dont think tgere id's anybody else available right now who has a better chance at pushing us to contender status.

All weve had lately (bar Thomas) has been role players coming and going, making a minimal impact along the way.  We need more then that.

[D Dub]

The more I think about Howard -- I wonder if he'd really fit into our team's culture? 

Jae & IT might eat him alive if he shows up but doesn't put in the work. 

The FT thing is really brutal, kind of monkey wrenches anything Brad might want to do. 

Maybe we're looking at the wrong Houston free agent?  Wouldn't D-Mo be better for what we're trying to do here?  He shoots, defends two positions, has great desire to prove himself...

[Donoghus]

No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

I hear you. 

First, I want to know what you think those cheaper alternatives are.  Because I'm hungry for the Celts to have some real, productive big men.

So give me some names.  If not Dwight, who?  And how much will it cost?


Second, if you think Dwight can only be had on a four year deal -- you may be right, I'm not so sure -- then I'm with you.  Dwight for four years is too big a risk.

For starters, you can bring back Amir.  I think Mozgov is someone I'd kick the tires on.  Biyombo if he opts out.  Speights is another serviceable alternative.  If they want to toss an offer at one of the restricted guys, I could be down with that.  (Ezeli, Powell).  I'm sure there are other guys that I'm not even considering here. 

I realize none of these guys move the needle for most people in regards to the splash factor but I think are decent alternatives that would help while not crippling the team, either.

None of those guys are significant improvements on what we already have on this first round exit roster.

Mosgov is a role player.  Biyombo is a role player.  Ezeli and powell are role players.  Ezeli probably the best out of those,  but hes not going to make this team a force in the East.

Maybe Monroe of he's available, but In still not sure if he will fit the team or not.

I get the question marks with Howard, i just dont think tgere id's anybody else available right now who has a better chance at pushing us to contender status.

All weve had lately (bar Thomas) has been role players coming and going, making a minimal impact along the way.  We need more then that.

I think the guy that really moves the bar for this franchise going forward is going to be a swing/wing & not a big, whether its acquired via FA, draft, or trade.  I don't think it's going to be in the form of a big man & certainly not a soon to be 31 year old.

[LooseCannon]

I will say this in defense of Howard.  I don't think he's the reason why Houston became a dumpster fire.  I put most of it in Harden, who by some accounts froze Howard out of the offense after McHale was fired.

This is a team that is so dysfunctional that interim coach JB Bickerstaff said he didn't want to be considered for the permanent head coaching job so he could chase assistant jobs elsewhere.  When you consider that Howard is widely presumed to opt out and seek employment elsewhere, that makes it seem like Bickerstaff didn't want to deal with Harden.

Also, the silver lining of the Celtics signing Howard would be that we no longer have to deal with posters whining about how no top free agent will ever come to Boston.

[Quetzalcoatl]

It's not that Howard wasn't good this year or even won't be good next year.  It's that he takes up a ton of cap space, he hurts our team chemistry and he's about to fall off a cliff like big men are wont to do.  It's at best a move that makes us slightly better in the short term, but reduces our chances at putting a great team together and making us a dramatically worse team in two years.

[LooseCannon]

The "he's going to fall off a cliff" argument is a bit overrated.  Even if a lot of big men seem to peter out after age 30, Dwight Howard is an elite big man and elite big men have aging curves where the cliff they fall off is more likely to happen at age 33-35.

We should rightly be concerned about how healthy Howard will be, but Howard is much more likely than not to be an above-average starter when healthy in 2018-2019.  I think the Celtics would be more likely to win a title in 2018-2019 if they signed Howard for three years than if they maxed Whiteside for four (but I think maxing Horford is better than signing Dwight).

[IDreamCeltics]

The Lakers went from 45 wins in 2012-2013 with Howard to 27 wins the next year without him. 

The Lakers went from 41 wins in a 66 game season (62.1% winning percentage) without Howard to 45 wins in a 82 game season (54.9%) with him.  He didn't improve their team.

That directly contradicts your opinion that "He's made every team he played for better".  It's simply a false statement.

It is as you put it, "simply a false statement" only if you ignore that the Lakers: A. Won more games after acquiring Dwight   B.  Were 18 games worse after he left, and C.  Still haven't been able to replace his production three years later.  Other than those facts that contradict your premise I agree it's quite black and white.

Since it's, "simple" we also don't need to consider that that the Lakers went through two head coaches, three offenses, and a season ending achilles injury to Kobe Bryant that year...

Haters gonna hate, but objectively Dwight has only made teams he's played for better.