sign howard

[PhoSita]

  Obviously, it'd be nice to get a big fish on this team but its not an absolute necessity and I'm certainly not doing it to destroy cap potential down the road (which is what I'm thinking will happen with the Howard contract.  It'll become an albatross for someone sooner rather than later). 

You can address the frontcourt issues with stop gaps if necessary.  They don't NEED to get one of the big names there. 

It all doesn't begin & end with summer of 2016.  I think too many people on this board seem to be hung up that it is and that's its an abject failure if the Celtics don't make a splash.

I just don't think that Dwight at the max is likely to be an albatross if it only lasts for 2-3 years.  If his back issues crop up again, it could be, especially in that third year.  But that's what makes it a gamble.  That's why he'll be available at all.


I agree with you that the Celts don't NEED to make a splash this summer, necessarily.  At the same time, I do think it's important that the Celts continue to make moves to progress the roster forward.

Another year of middle of the road success in the regular season and a 1st round out and the Celts start to seem less like a young team on the rise and more like a treadmill team. 

Harder to sell that to prospective free agents.  IT another year closer to 30 and his likely expiration date.  And another step closer to Brad Stevens maybe taking a look at other options for advancing his career.


Anyway, I feel that Ainge will have plenty of options for improving the team this summer.  I don't think there will be an excuse to simply do nothing.  He should at least explore some of the more interesting stop-gap options, as you say.

I don't believe that the opportunity cost is that high.  I don't care that much about cap space because I don't think the Celts will ever be a destination team for top free agents unless they already have an MVP caliber player on the roster. 

And my philosophy is that as long as you acquire or sign players who are likely to have trade value in the future, you can always move them at a later date if you need to make room for other guys.  You just have to be willing to trade them when the time comes.

[Donoghus]

Dwight Howard is going to be 31 years old in December.  An "old" 31 at that.

Is that really the guy we should be tossing $30 million a year at?

The way this organization has been setting itself up for the past few years, it just seems like a dumb & incredibly short-sighted thing to do. 

[crimson_stallion]

Player A: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, .592 TS%, 1.6 turnovers, 114 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 30.1 minutes

Player B: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, .604 TS%, 2.3 turnovers, 110 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 32.1 minutes

Player A leads in VORP, BPM, PER and WS, as well as scoring and assists per minute.

Anybody want to give Marcin Gortat $31 million per year? That's the level of player we'd get with Howard, except Gortat doesn't have the baggage and can hit his FTs.

* Is Marcin Gortat a three time Defensive Player of the year?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-Star?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-NBA team selection and a 5 time all-defensive team selection?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 14th all time in rebounds per game and 4th all time in total rebound percentage?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 21st all time in total blocks, 22nd all time in defensive rating and 28th all time in defensive win shares?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 4th all time in career field goal percentage, 25th all time in free throw attempts, and have a career scoring efficiency of 1.6 Points Per FGA, a career 81% Free Throw Rate, and a career scoring average of 18 PPG?

* Has Gortat ever made a contender out of a team of role players?

As my four year old daughter can recite by heart, "the past is in the past".



How many DPOYs has Dwight won lately?

Only suckers pay for past production.  Danny isn't a sucker.

Please allow me to repeat myself for you - perhaps you didn't see me prior post.

In the past 5 seasons Dwight has averaged Per 36 numbers of:

* 19.4 points on 12.6 FGA, 13,7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.4 steals, 57% FG
* 17.1 points on 10.8 FGA, 12.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.1 steals, 58% FG
* 19.5 points on 12.0 FGA, 13.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.9 steals, 59% FG
* 19.0 points on 12.5 FGA, 12.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.6 blocks, 0.8 steals, 59% FG
* 15.4 Points on 9.5 FGA, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.1 steals, 62% FG

It's pretty blatantly obvious to me that what I just listed is 'max contract' calibre production, since nobody else in the NBA bar Cousins and Duncan (to my knowledge) have put up those kind of numbers over the past 5 seasons.

You want to throw $30 million at Al Horford so that he can give you his nice comfy 15 and 7?

If not then please, humour me.  Name me another big man who is available to us this offseason who is more worthy of a max contract.

Don't bring up the likes of Cousins, Monroe, etc, since there is nothing concrete to suggest that those guys are available and you can't just assume that is the case.

Would you rather throw $20M or so at a 37 year old Pau Gasol, perhaps?

Not sure if you noticed, but right now we pretty much have no frontcourt.  Sully is a free agent (and I hope to god he doesn't come back), Amir is non-guaranteed (and will be gone if we decide to sign two max guys), Olynyk is injury prone and foul prone and hasn't proven he can be a consistent starter, Zeller is scetchy at best. 

We really don't have a clear cut starter at either PF or C right now, and we need somebody who is capable if giving us more then just 'fringe stater' production.   Until that happens, this team will never so much as sniff contention.

Dwight is a guy who can be effective without needing the ball, which makes him a perfect compliment for just about any star out there.  If we get Durant, he'd make a perfect front court with Howard.  Butler?  He'd fit great with Howard too.  Thomas?  Perfect match.  Howard is that star who's game is so complimentary that he'd fit pretty much anybody - and his name holds enough credibility to act as a legit draw for other free agents.

You have Thomas and Dwight - you think guys like Butler and Durant won't think long and hard about joining that? 

As I said, if you dislike the idea so much then who would you suggest we go after instead?  Whiteside?  He's basically just a poor man's Dwight anyway.

[moiso]

Player A: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, .592 TS%, 1.6 turnovers, 114 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 30.1 minutes

Player B: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, .604 TS%, 2.3 turnovers, 110 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 32.1 minutes

Player A leads in VORP, BPM, PER and WS, as well as scoring and assists per minute.

Anybody want to give Marcin Gortat $31 million per year? That's the level of player we'd get with Howard, except Gortat doesn't have the baggage and can hit his FTs.

* Is Marcin Gortat a three time Defensive Player of the year?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-Star?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-NBA team selection and a 5 time all-defensive team selection?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 14th all time in rebounds per game and 4th all time in total rebound percentage?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 21st all time in total blocks, 22nd all time in defensive rating and 28th all time in defensive win shares?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 4th all time in career field goal percentage, 25th all time in free throw attempts, and have a career scoring efficiency of 1.6 Points Per FGA, a career 81% Free Throw Rate, and a career scoring average of 18 PPG?

* Has Gortat ever made a contender out of a team of role players?

Gortat's 13.5 PPG this season was the second highest of his career - he overachieved.  Howard's 13.7 PPG this year was the second lowest of his career - he dramatically underachieved on a team that isn't making use of his talents.

Dwight Howard has PROVEN throughout his career that he is capable of being a 18/12 guy if you use him the right way.  It's very easy to demonstrate from the numbers alone that any drop in production is a direct result of:

1) Reduced minutes
2) Reduced offensive touches / role

This leaves plenty of reason to believe that if he is given more touches and/or minutes, he's capable of producing at or near a superstar level.

Gortat has never so much as sniffed those numbers, and his current numbers are well in line with what he's put up his entire career- in fact they're at the higher end of his career numbers.  That's a very different scenario. 

That said, I wouldn't mind Gortat on the team for the right price - always liked him.

Wilt Chamberlin put up amazing numbers throughout his career, but I don't think we should sign him.  You sign people for what they can do going forward, not what they've done in the past.  Howard should be signed as a 24 minute a game guy and paid accordingly.

But he's not a 24 minute a game guy.  He's a legit starter.  And a good one.

[crimson_stallion]

Dwight Howard is going to be 31 years old in December.  An "old" 31 at that.

Is that really the guy we should be tossing $30 million a year at?

The way this organization has been setting itself up for the past few years, it just seems like a dumb & incredibly short-sighted thing to do.

If he has the talent/skill/abilities to make your team a contender (which I believe he does) then I would toss $30m at him happily.

[crimson_stallion]

Player A: 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, .592 TS%, 1.6 turnovers, 114 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 30.1 minutes

Player B: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, .604 TS%, 2.3 turnovers, 110 ORtg, 104 DRtg in 32.1 minutes

Player A leads in VORP, BPM, PER and WS, as well as scoring and assists per minute.

Anybody want to give Marcin Gortat $31 million per year? That's the level of player we'd get with Howard, except Gortat doesn't have the baggage and can hit his FTs.

* Is Marcin Gortat a three time Defensive Player of the year?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-Star?

* Is Marcin Gortat an 8 time All-NBA team selection and a 5 time all-defensive team selection?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 14th all time in rebounds per game and 4th all time in total rebound percentage?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 21st all time in total blocks, 22nd all time in defensive rating and 28th all time in defensive win shares?

* Does Marcin Gortat rank 4th all time in career field goal percentage, 25th all time in free throw attempts, and have a career scoring efficiency of 1.6 Points Per FGA, a career 81% Free Throw Rate, and a career scoring average of 18 PPG?

* Has Gortat ever made a contender out of a team of role players?

Gortat's 13.5 PPG this season was the second highest of his career - he overachieved.  Howard's 13.7 PPG this year was the second lowest of his career - he dramatically underachieved on a team that isn't making use of his talents.

Dwight Howard has PROVEN throughout his career that he is capable of being a 18/12 guy if you use him the right way.  It's very easy to demonstrate from the numbers alone that any drop in production is a direct result of:

1) Reduced minutes
2) Reduced offensive touches / role

This leaves plenty of reason to believe that if he is given more touches and/or minutes, he's capable of producing at or near a superstar level.

Gortat has never so much as sniffed those numbers, and his current numbers are well in line with what he's put up his entire career- in fact they're at the higher end of his career numbers.  That's a very different scenario. 

That said, I wouldn't mind Gortat on the team for the right price - always liked him.

Wilt Chamberlin put up amazing numbers throughout his career, but I don't think we should sign him.  You sign people for what they can do going forward, not what they've done in the past.  Howard should be signed as a 24 minute a game guy and paid accordingly.

Dwight Howard's career low for minutes played is 29.8 MPG in 2014/15. His career average is 35.3 MPG.  This year he averaged 32 MPG over 71 games, during which he put up just under 14 points (on 9 FGA) and 12 rebounds a game.

His entire career Dwight has been among the most impressively conditioned players in the NBA - he's like the Ray Allen of big men.  Just taking one look at the guy its clear that he takes care of his body.

Howard is perfectly capable of playing 30+ minutes a game, and based purely on his conditioning he should be able to do that until hes 33-34. 

The only risks that exist with Howard are injury history and attitude.  Both are legitimate concerns, but ones I'm willing to take a risk on for somebody who can upgrade our font court the way he can.

If we can surprise the world and score a deal on Love/Cousins/Monroe then great.  But we can't bank on that, and Dwight is by far the best big man on the market.

[PhoSita]

Dwight Howard is going to be 31 years old in December.  An "old" 31 at that.

Is that really the guy we should be tossing $30 million a year at?

The way this organization has been setting itself up for the past few years, it just seems like a dumb & incredibly short-sighted thing to do.

What's your worst case scenario with Dwight? 

To me the worst case is that he continues to rankle teammates as he did at his last two stops, has trouble getting engaged with the offense, and misses 33-50% of his games over the next 3 years due to back issues and other nagging injuries.

OK, that's bad.  No doubt about it.  Even when limited by injury and dealing with chemistry issues, Dwight grabs a ton of rebounds, finishes inside, draws a ton of fouls, and generally attracts a lot of attention at both ends.  If he's able to play for the playoffs, that probably gives the Celts a good shot at advancing beyond the first round, maybe even the second if they can avoid Cleveland.

If the commitment is just the next few years, is that such a huge risk?  It's not like the Celts have a big man prospect waiting in the wings whose development would be limited.  It's not like Dwight's presence would mean the Celts are out of the running for signing an MVP caliber big man next summer or the year after.  Even if it does, unless Dwight really falls off I think it'll be possible to trade him unless injuries prevent him from playing at all.

I just don't see Dwight declining so rapidly that he becomes a major impediment.  I acknowledge that's possible, but to me it'd be worth the risks, again provided that the deal doesn't extend to a fourth year.

[Roy H.]

Please allow me to repeat myself for you - perhaps you didn't see me prior post.

In the past 5 seasons Dwight has averaged Per 36 numbers of:

* 19.4 points on 12.6 FGA, 13,7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.4 steals, 57% FG
* 17.1 points on 10.8 FGA, 12.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.1 steals, 58% FG
* 19.5 points on 12.0 FGA, 13.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.9 steals, 59% FG
* 19.0 points on 12.5 FGA, 12.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.6 blocks, 0.8 steals, 59% FG
* 15.4 Points on 9.5 FGA, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.1 steals, 62% FG

I saw it.  I'm just not sure how relevant per-36 numbers from when Dwight was 26 years old are.

15 points and 13 rebounds per 36 minutes isn't max contract worthy to me.  Using the lofty standards of 14 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes, 38 guys qualified.

Player A:  15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes

Player B:  15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.6 turnovers per 36 rebounds

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

[PhoSita]

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

OK, you lost me there.

[Donoghus]

Dwight Howard is going to be 31 years old in December.  An "old" 31 at that.

Is that really the guy we should be tossing $30 million a year at?

The way this organization has been setting itself up for the past few years, it just seems like a dumb & incredibly short-sighted thing to do.

What's your worst case scenario with Dwight? 

To me the worst case is that he continues to rankle teammates as he did at his last two stops, has trouble getting engaged with the offense, and misses 33-50% of his games over the next 3 years due to back issues and other nagging injuries.

OK, that's bad.  No doubt about it.  Even when limited by injury and dealing with chemistry issues, Dwight grabs a ton of rebounds, finishes inside, draws a ton of fouls, and generally attracts a lot of attention at both ends.  If he's able to play for the playoffs, that probably gives the Celts a good shot at advancing beyond the first round, maybe even the second if they can avoid Cleveland.

If the commitment is just the next few years, is that such a huge risk?  It's not like the Celts have a big man prospect waiting in the wings whose development would be limited.  It's not like Dwight's presence would mean the Celts are out of the running for signing an MVP caliber big man next summer or the year after.  Even if it does, unless Dwight really falls off I think it'll be possible to trade him unless injuries prevent him from playing at all.

I just don't see Dwight declining so rapidly that he becomes a major impediment.  I acknowledge that's possible, but to me it'd be worth the risks, again provided that the deal doesn't extend to a fourth year.

Ummm....this.  That should scream red flag about tossing him $30 million.   No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

[Roy H.]

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

OK, you lost me there.

Jared Sullinger:  15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes

Dwight Howard:  15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.6 turnovers per 36 rebounds

crimson_stallion is arguing in support of Dwight citing per-36 minutes numbers.  I don't find Dwight's to be particularly impressive.

[Roy H.]

Dwight Howard is going to be 31 years old in December.  An "old" 31 at that.

Is that really the guy we should be tossing $30 million a year at?

The way this organization has been setting itself up for the past few years, it just seems like a dumb & incredibly short-sighted thing to do.

What's your worst case scenario with Dwight? 

To me the worst case is that he continues to rankle teammates as he did at his last two stops, has trouble getting engaged with the offense, and misses 33-50% of his games over the next 3 years due to back issues and other nagging injuries.

OK, that's bad.  No doubt about it.  Even when limited by injury and dealing with chemistry issues, Dwight grabs a ton of rebounds, finishes inside, draws a ton of fouls, and generally attracts a lot of attention at both ends.  If he's able to play for the playoffs, that probably gives the Celts a good shot at advancing beyond the first round, maybe even the second if they can avoid Cleveland.

If the commitment is just the next few years, is that such a huge risk?  It's not like the Celts have a big man prospect waiting in the wings whose development would be limited.  It's not like Dwight's presence would mean the Celts are out of the running for signing an MVP caliber big man next summer or the year after.  Even if it does, unless Dwight really falls off I think it'll be possible to trade him unless injuries prevent him from playing at all.

I just don't see Dwight declining so rapidly that he becomes a major impediment.  I acknowledge that's possible, but to me it'd be worth the risks, again provided that the deal doesn't extend to a fourth year.

Ummm....this.  That should scream red flag about tossing him $30 million.   No doubt in my mind you can find cheaper alternatives out there. They won't give you his production but could go a long ways.  Stopgaps if necessary. 

I also don't think you'll see him only getting 3 years. I'm operating under the assumption he won't.

Let's assume it's only three years.  That "worst case scenario" should scare the heck out of us.  That's basically tying up 35% of our cap in a guy who will miss significant time, who will poison team chemistry, and who will score at the same rate as Jared Sullinger.

[IDreamCeltics]

Well considering we'd have to trade good wing players plus lotto picks for Cousins, I'm inclined to lean towards Dwight. 

To me, the combo of IT, AB, Smart, Crowder, & Turner is more important than a subset of those guys plus Cousins.  Without that defense cohesion, we become a very average team (ie- look what happened when we lost AB against ATL). 

For that reason, I'd prefer keep the core together and just add Howard even though he is (obviously) less desirable.

Wait why is Howard less desirable?  He's made every team he played for better and to my knowledge every team he's left has gotten considerably worse after his departure.

Except the Lakers.

And several of his Magic teams, and this year's Houston team in particular, underachieved.

The Lakers went from 45 wins in 2012-2013 with Howard to 27 wins the next year without him.  He lead the league in rebounds that year despite it being his first year back from back surgery and playing through a torn labrum. 

What Orlando teams underachieved?  The Magic won 21 games the year before drafting Dwight and won 36 games the following year.  He took an Orlando team who's best wings were Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis to the NBA Finals... Neither of those guys ever made an All-Star team.

The Rockets won 45 games in 2012-2013 and then improved to 54 wins the next year after adding Howard.

We'll have to wait to see how many wins next year's Rockets team gets without Dwight before saying they underachieved this year.

Bottom line though:  Dwight's been in the league 12 years and played for playoff teams the last 10 consecutive seasons.

You can hate on him because you don't like him, or argue that the league is moving away from players like him, but you can't really argue with his on court production or what he's mean in the W/L column. 
 

[PhoSita]

Jared Sullinger should be asking for a max contract, since his scoring / rebounding production are in lock-step with Dwight's.

OK, you lost me there.

Jared Sullinger:  15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes

Dwight Howard:  15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.6 turnovers per 36 rebounds

crimson_stallion is arguing in support of Dwight citing per-36 minutes numbers.  I don't find Dwight's to be particularly impressive.

Well, you purposely left out the FG%, which crimson_stallion included.

Kind of a relevant factor there.  Also FTA.  Pretty significant part of Dwight's game.


Look, I buy your argument that Dwight isn't worth so much more than Gortat.  We just disagree about the extent to which that's true, and the opportunity cost of signing Dwight to a max.

You lose me with the comparison to Sullinger.  Seems like you're at the point of disregarding what Dwight can, without any question, do really well.


I sympathize with what CR is saying about the fact that the Celts don't have any certified two-way starters in the frontcourt locked up for next year.  Arguably, they didn't have anybody meeting that description this year.

It's the biggest hole on this roster right now.  Add a couple of two way starter-caliber bigs and this team probably beats Atlanta.

Issue: two-way bigs that can give you 30+ minutes are the second hardest piece to add in this league after perennial All-Stars.  If you don't draft and develop one -- which the Celts have failed utterly to do -- you have to overpay, sometimes drastically, to get one.  Otherwise, you've got to gamble on backups and foreign free agents and hope you find a diamond in the rough.

[Roy H.]

The Lakers went from 45 wins in 2012-2013 with Howard to 27 wins the next year without him. 

The Lakers went from 41 wins in a 66 game season (62.1% winning percentage) without Howard to 45 wins in a 82 game season (54.9%) with him.  He didn't improve their team.

That directly contradicts your opinion that "He's made every team he played for better".  It's simply a false statement.