Do you still think they will 30? They sit at 7-18. So they would have to go 23 - 34 the rest of the way if my math is correct. Considering they have had perfect health until losing RHJ two games ago this seems unlikely to me.
In fairness to Phosita, I'd point out that 25 wins qualifies as closer to 30 than 15. That's 18-39 over the rest of the season, which is within their abilities if Lopez stays healthy.
^ See above.
The Nets are bad, but unless Lopez suffers a major injury, they probably won't be horrible. They're probably gonna keep riding their main guys until they collapse or the season ends.
You're right that all along it's been, basically, a question of whether you think the lack of depth or the quality of their starting 5 will make a bigger difference. To start the season, the starting 5 was struggling and the depth was a major issue. They had a bad start and that gave some hope that I was wrong and they might hang with the Sixers and Lakers for a bottom record.
Lately, their starting 5 has been pretty good and they've been sneaking wins every few games or so. If you think their play over the last few weeks is more representative of how they're gonna be the rest of the way, then you'd probably conclude they'll win about a third of their games the rest of the way.
Guess how many wins that would be? 25.
And who knows, if they've got their main guys healthy in March and April, it wouldnt' shock me to see them put together a run of .500 or better ball as many of their opponents pack it in. That could get 'em to 30.
The RHJ injury helps us a bit, and there's always that lurking possibility of Lopez going out. All along I've said that if he suffers a major injury, that's a game changer.
At the same time, in 5 of the previous 7 seasons he's played 72 games or more. So expecting him to go down for a long time seems a little bit like an article of faith.