CB Draft Finals: Q&A, Video, and Trash Talk Thread!

[Fafnir]

I think you graphs do raise a valid point IP, that Hedo needs the ball to be effective.

But overall the type of analysis you've done isn't all that useful in my eyes. PER is highly dependent on how many shot attempts you take, you can raise your PER just by taking more shots even if you're somewhat inefficient about it.

[StartOrien]

GETCHYA LAST QUESTIONS IN,

I leave work at 5:30, and have a softball game at 7:15 so won't be able to be in front of computer atleast til 9.

[Fafnir]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

This year, a year in which LeBron QUIT on his team in the playoffs and was knocked out of the playoffs one round earlier, in the CB Draft he is on a team surrounded by a seriously worse collection of players going up against a team that kind of mirrors the 2008-09 Magic and people are considering voting Chicago through to the championship simply because of Lebron not being able to be stopped?!?!?!

Maybe it's me but that makes zero sense.

Start Orien better hope for a large turnout like last year's voting otherwise the lower the vote total the better chance Chicago has of pulling this off.

Different GMs, different match ups, different draft.

I'm not sure what to say about last years draft, I don't even recall who bounced that team from the playoffs.

[Who]

Starters

Jennings vs Baron = neutral
M.Miller vs Wes = advantage CHI
LeBron vs Salmons = large advantage CHI
Ilyasova vs Jamison = neutral
Noah vs Dwight = advantage PHO

Bench

Primary Guard = Maynor vs Rudy = neutral
Primary Wing = TA vs Hedo = advantage PHO
Primary Big = Monroe vs Amundson = advantage PHO

Secondary Wing = Von Wafer vs T-Will = neutral, possible advantage for CHI if Von Wafer gets back to his Rockets form
Secondary Big = Asik vs E.Davis = neither should play, if they do, advantage E.Davis

Coach

Gentry vs B.Scott = neutral

[Roy H.]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

This year, a year in which LeBron QUIT on his team in the playoffs and was knocked out of the playoffs one round earlier, in the CB Draft he is on a team surrounded by a seriously worse collection of players going up against a team that kind of mirrors the 2008-09 Magic and people are considering voting Chicago through to the championship simply because of Lebron not being able to be stopped?!?!?!

Maybe it's me but that makes zero sense.

Start Orien better hope for a large turnout like last year's voting otherwise the lower the vote total the better chance Chicago has of pulling this off.

As I think you've argued yourself, nick, last year's draft was completely different than this year's.  I think the two Finalists this year would have lost to a lot of teams last year.  People have been pretty subjective in their voting about when depth matters, versus when it's okay to just focus on the stronger starting lineup.

If people applied the 2010 standard to the 2009 draft, I've got to think that the 2009 Bulls win in a runaway.  They had a terrible, terrible bench (although it was comparable, if not better, than Chicago's or Phoenix's), but a stacked starting lineup (Pau Gasol, Al Horford, Kevin Martin, and Chris Paul).  Last year, voters thought depth mattered.  This year, they changed their mind.

[StartOrien]

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

It worked out differently, but it was pretty hard to project Lawson, Affllalo, and M. Gasol to what they were capable of doign in 2010

[StartOrien]

Believe it or not, I actually strongly focused around creating depth. I guess, in the eyes of the voters, I failed miserably. Oh well, I'm in the finals anyhow. 

[Donoghus]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

This year, a year in which LeBron QUIT on his team in the playoffs and was knocked out of the playoffs one round earlier, in the CB Draft he is on a team surrounded by a seriously worse collection of players going up against a team that kind of mirrors the 2008-09 Magic and people are considering voting Chicago through to the championship simply because of Lebron not being able to be stopped?!?!?!

Maybe it's me but that makes zero sense.

Start Orien better hope for a large turnout like last year's voting otherwise the lower the vote total the better chance Chicago has of pulling this off.

Different GMs, different match ups, different draft.

I'm not sure what to say about last years draft, I don't even recall who bounced that team from the playoffs.

Also,  I'm almost positive that the stock was much lower on Marc Gasol and Ty Lawson last year.  

Like you said, different year and different draft.  A lot of things look different in hindsight.  

[Who]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

This year, a year in which LeBron QUIT on his team in the playoffs and was knocked out of the playoffs one round earlier, in the CB Draft he is on a team surrounded by a seriously worse collection of players going up against a team that kind of mirrors the 2008-09 Magic and people are considering voting Chicago through to the championship simply because of Lebron not being able to be stopped?!?!?!

Maybe it's me but that makes zero sense.

Start Orien better hope for a large turnout like last year's voting otherwise the lower the vote total the better chance Chicago has of pulling this off.

That is a very cool team.

PG - Hinrich / Lawson
SG - J-Rich / Afflalo
SF - LeBron / Hassell
PF - Varejao / J.Anthony
C - M.Gasol / Foster

Shocking that they didn't win the league ... what where the rosters that did win?

It worked out differently, but it was pretty hard to project Lawson, Affllalo, and M. Gasol to what they were capable of doign in 2010

Agreed -- a couple of difficult players to evaluate. I had Lawson and Afflalo on the mark ... but I under-rated Marc Gasol.

Still, LeBron + J-Rich + Varejao + a solid center (M.Gasol) and point guard (Hinrich). Hard to see that squad not doing better. There was a lot of proven talent in those five players. Easily an elite team.

[StartOrien]

OK, I'm out. I'll try to get in front of a computer to answer some questions before I pass out, but no guarantees.

Vote Phoenix, ya'all. IP is a martian sympathizer.

[Roy H.]

Believe it or not, I actually strongly focused around creating depth. I guess, in the eyes of the voters, I failed miserably. Oh well, I'm in the finals anyhow. 

I think you've got a very thin front court, and I'm not sold on either of your guards.  I'd rank your bench as marginally below-average to very below-average.

Of course, if Monroe and Davis have strong rookie campaigns and Williams takes a leap forward, you could go from having a weak bench to a very strong one.

[Donoghus]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

That team got bounced by this team in the playoffs.  

Philadelphia 76ers (kwhit10)- Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Bynum, Baron Davis, Emeka Okafor, Ronnie Brewer, Anthony Parker, Renaldo Balkman, Janerro Pargo, Steve Novak, Joe Smith, Lindsey Hunter, Francisco Elson, Joey Graham, Will Solomon, Tim Thomas,

That's a very solid squad even a year later and I'm not surprised that Lebron team lost.

[Lucky17]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

That team got bounced by this team in the playoffs.  

Philadelphia 76ers (kwhit10)- Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Bynum, Baron Davis, Emeka Okafor, Ronnie Brewer, Anthony Parker, Renaldo Balkman, Janerro Pargo, Steve Novak, Joe Smith, Lindsey Hunter, Francisco Elson, Joey Graham, Will Solomon, Tim Thomas,

That's a very solid squad even a year later and I'm not surprised that Lebron team lost.

That's a 6-man roster for Philly. A travesty.

Maybe 7, counting Graham and Elson as half-players each.

[indeedproceed]

Wish I could spend more time on this, but I have to be on the road at 5:30 and won't be at a computer until 9ish.

1. Defense

I'd call this slight advantage to Chicago. When it comes to significantlty above average defensive players you have Dwight Howard, Wesley Matthews, Lebron James, Brandon Jennings and Joakim Noah.

2. Rebounding

Very slight advantage Phoenix. Howard & Jamison exceed the advantage Lebron proceeds, we can outrebound every other position (though none of those other guys are huge rebounders).

Mike Miller is the better rebounder by a huge margin than John Salmons, and he's better than any other SF you have, let alone shooting guard.

Howard and Baron Davis are the only guys that are actually better rebounders out of your starting 5, and that is by a combined .7 rebounds per 48 minutes.

Dwight Howard: 18.3 RP48
Baron Davis: 5.1 RP48

Joakim Noah: 17.6 RP48
Brandon Jennings: 5.1 RP48

Ersan Ilyasova has a better RP 48 (13.1), rebound rate (15.5..its the measure of total available rebounds that any one player gets), and in 13 less minutes per game, Ilyasova got just 2 less rebounds than Antawn Jamison got in 36 minutes per game. How is Ilyasova not better?

3. Ball movement

Advantage Phoenix. Jennings & James are the only ones capabable of handling the ball. Jennings & Miller can both make really, really poor decisions when it comes to passing.

Davis, Salmons, Turkoglu, Williams and Fernandez can all handle the ball and are all less prone to making "awful" decisions.

Baron Davis has an assist to turnover rate of 2.83. Brandont Jennings has an assist to turnover rate of 2.35

John Salmons has an assist to turnover rate of 1.81, Mike Miller of 1.85
Mike Miller had 3.9 assists per game last season to Salmons 2.8.

This is after a playoff game last season:

Noah's no LeBron James, but he was easily the second-best player on the court most of the game. He put up 25 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and no turnovers in a 112-102 defeat. The Bulls are down 2-0 in the best-of-seven, first-round series, which goes back to Chicago on Thursday. Noah showed last season that he was a legit NBA big man, but now he's proving that he can back up his bluster against any team.

"Noah is one of the smartest guys in the NBA," TNT's Charles Barkley gushed at halftime. "He makes passes other big guys can't make."

4. Post play

Advantage Phoenix. Chicago doesn't have any capable of post players

I disagree, I think against lots of centers in the league Joakim Noah can score. He can score on Howard, he's proven that.

Noah's post game has just taken a couple of years to come along. The real advantage for Phoenix here is Jamison, who is a very capable post scorer.

5. Shooting

Advantage Phoenix. Ilyasova & Miller are the only consistent jump shooters on Chicago. We designed the team to be filled with shooters, and we definitely succeeded.

I am running out patience to look up stats, but, Baron Davis shoots 29% from 3pt land, Dwight Howard will clog your lane, and Jamison is barely a better 3pt shooter than Ilyasova. Mike Miller FTW.

6. Clutch play, 7. Leadership

Slight advantage Phoenix. It would've gone to Chicago, but as IP said the Lebron-Celtics mystery kind of takes away from it.

Meanwhile we've got some pretty strong characters/leaders, despite no definitive go-to-guy we have strong guys who can hit the big shot in B-Diddy, Salmons, Turkoglu, and Howard.

Why is LeBron falling in 6 games any different than Dwight Howard falling in 6 games?


8. Depth

Advantage Phoenix. Roy keeps pointing out that Cleveland lost to Orlando b/c Lebron couldn't get any help off the bench, who's getting the points off the bench for IP's Bulls?
[/quote]

Well, Tony Allen, Von Wafer, Michael Redd, are all guys that can score. Without Dwight Howard on the floor the Phoenix Gorillaz are a sieve. Don't need all-stars to put in buckets.

[Roy H.]

PG - Hinrich / Lawson
SG - J-Rich / Afflalo
SF - LeBron / Hassell
PF - Varejao / J.Anthony
C - M.Gasol / Foster

Also, the question mark about that team was whether it was too defensively oriented.  Without projecting the leap of Gasol, I think that was a pretty fair assumption.  Unless Lebron was playing 48 minutes per game, that team was bound to go through long scoring droughts.

The team they lost to, as I remember, wasn't too shabby:

PG:  B. Davis / Pargo / Hunter
SG:  R. Brewer / A. Parker / J. Graham
SF:  Carmelo / Balkman
PF:  Okafor / J. Smith / Tim Thomas / Novak
C:  Bynum / Elson

Obviously, a pretty thin bench there, but an excellent team that would beat either Phoenix or Chicago this year.