CB Draft Finals: Q&A, Video, and Trash Talk Thread!

[Roy H.]

Breaking things down to Per-36 minutes doesn't really convince me, because there are reasons that some players can handle big minutes, while others can't.  

So basically I see it as thus: which is more likely?

1) Ersan Ilyasova becoming significantly better after turning 25 years old, starting for a complete year on a #1 seeded team playing next to the 2x MVP, gaining another year of experience with the NBA 3pt line and NBA talent

or

2) Antawn Jamison, will either get better or keep the status quot despite coming off a near career low year in terms of games played, minutes played, and points per game. Also he will be doing this as he is turning 35 years old and playing more games for bigger minutes than he did the season previous.

I do not understand how that is at all defensible.

There's no guarantee that Ilyasova gets better, or that Jamison gets worse.  However, assuming that they each do, I still think Ilyasova has a lot of ground to make up.  Jamison put up 19 points per game last year as a starter; Ilyasova averaged 10 as a bench player.  Is Ilyasova going to develop into a 17 / 10 guy playing 34 - 38 minutes?  I'm skeptical.

[Roy H.]

EDIT:  Like, in the example above, why show Noah's Per-36 minute numbers, when it's clear that he's incapable of playing 36 minutes, especially against Howard?  It gives me the perception -- which I don't believe to be accurate -- that you're trying to trick me with "fuzzy math", rather than trying to convince me with legit arguments.

Perkins doesn't play 36 minutes either most of the time. I think saying Noah can't play 36 minutes is probably accurate, I think 30 is more likely.

Its a useful short hand and it also breaks down the rate of production. It highlights that Chicago is fine when Noah is on the court, their problem is when he isn't.

Maybe comparing per-36 minute stats is fair when looking at Noah and Perkins, since they're limited players.  It's when those projections are placed next to Howard's numbers that I have an issue.

[indeedproceed]

I know I've got lots of questions, but I'm genuinely trying to figure this one out.

Chicago, let's assume that Phoenix's defensive strategy is to have Howard defend the paint, while covering Lebron with Salmons, using Matthews to help in cutting off penetration (sort of like the Celts do in using Ray Allen).  

How does Chicago attack a defensive game plan like that?

1) John Salmons is not Paul Pierce's defensive equal. So even if you're putting Rosi O'Donnell in Jessica Alba's bathing suit it will not have the same overall effect.

2) LeBron James proved against Boston, Orlando, the whole league that you cannot stop him from getting into the paint with inferior defenders.

I'd expect in those situations that LeBron would be able to get into the paint and either score on his own, possibly drawing the foul from Howard, or make the pass. If Matthews is cutting off the passing lanes, then who is covering Miller? Where is Jennings? Is Jamison stuck to Ilyasova?

These are the benefits I have with Brandon Jennings and LeBron James having clear cut advantages in their defensive counter parts. Jennings and James should both be able to get past their defensive assignment, and Howard will have to help, and he won't be alone. Defenses collapse when a guy gets in the paint, and Jennings and James are good enough with the rock to take advantage of that.

[Who]

My expectations for Ilyasova are around 14ppg and 8rpg on a TS% of 55% or so in about 32 minutes a night plus slightly above average defense (mainly by virtue of his team defense).

I think Ilyasova is capable of that ... but I don't think he'll play enough minutes in Milwaukee next season to show it.

--------------------------------------------------

Jamison will do more of the same.

A TS% of about 53% but a very low turnover rate so solid efficiency overall. He's an aggressive shot-taker who'll always look to take about 15-16 shots per 36 minutes so he'll score 15-19ppg in 30-36mpg depending on minutes.

Very poor defense (both man-to-man and team defense) plus below average but serviceable rebounding. No passing.

[Roy H.]

I know I've got lots of questions, but I'm genuinely trying to figure this one out.

Chicago, let's assume that Phoenix's defensive strategy is to have Howard defend the paint, while covering Lebron with Salmons, using Matthews to help in cutting off penetration (sort of like the Celts do in using Ray Allen).  

How does Chicago attack a defensive game plan like that?

1) John Salmons is not Paul Pierce's defensive equal. So even if you're putting Rosi O'Donnell in Jessica Alba's bathing suit it will not have the same overall effect.

2) LeBron James proved against Boston, Orlando, the whole league that you cannot stop him from getting into the paint with inferior defenders.

I'd expect in those situations that LeBron would be able to get into the paint and either score on his own, possibly drawing the foul from Howard, or make the pass. If Matthews is cutting off the passing lanes, then who is covering Miller? Where is Jennings? Is Jamison stuck to Ilyasova?

These are the benefits I have with Brandon Jennings and LeBron James having clear cut advantages in their defensive counter parts. Jennings and James should both be able to get past their defensive assignment, and Howard will have to help, and he won't be alone. Defenses collapse when a guy gets in the paint, and Jennings and James are good enough with the rock to take advantage of that.

Response, Phoenix?

Also, for the Suns:  if Noah *doesn't* get in foul trouble, can you win this series, and why?

[Roy H.]

As much as I like Jamison over Ilyasova (and over Turkoglu), I don't think that matchup is going to be the determining factor here. 

Chicago and Phoenix, please state how your team stacks up in relation to your opponent in the following areas:

1. Defense
2. Rebounding
3. Ball movement
4. Post play
5. Shooting
6. Clutch play
7. Leadership
8. Depth

I'd appreciate answers more in depth than "Chicago is better" or "Phoenix wins this matchup". 

Bump.

[Who]

These are the benefits I have with Brandon Jennings and LeBron James having clear cut advantages in their defensive counter parts. Jennings and James should both be able to get past their defensive assignment, and Howard will have to help, and he won't be alone. Defenses collapse when a guy gets in the paint, and Jennings and James are good enough with the rock to take advantage of that.

I think the Baron Davis vs Brandon Jennings is neutral.

I don't have a problem with Baron's ability to defend Jennings ... especially with Dwight Howard behind him.

[nickagneta]

I have to say that I think both of these teams benches are pretty awful, so it really comes down to who has the best starting lineup

Baron Davis  vs  Brandon Jennings  -  I can't see any way where someone can say that Phoenix doesn't own this matchup. Davis is a vet, is savy and just a much much better overall player in every way than Jennings.

Wesley Matthews  vs  Mike Miller  -  Kind of offsetting players. Matthews isn't nearly as good as the contract he just signed and Miller isn't nearly as good as his Team USA selection and ROY award might point to him being. One is proficient on defense the other on offense. Pretty much a push here.

Hedo Turkoglu  vs  Lebron James  -  Lebron dominates the match up but Hedo starting just makes the Phoenix offense much better than Salmons does and I think Lebron isn't going to be stopped by either guy so make the offense as efficient as possible. Hedo will do that by making the ball move better.

Antawn Jamison  vs  Ersan Ilyasova  -  Jamison I think will win this matchupo fairly handily. He's just better at every phase of the game than Ilyasova

Dwight Howard  vs  Joakim Noah  -  Noah is a hell of an defensive player but over seven games I don't see him bothering Howard but more than a game or two. The problem here is that Noah's offense, which isn't great will disappear. Major advantage to Howard.

John Salmons and Rudy Fernandez  vs   Tony Allen and Louis Amundson - Kind of like the Miller/Matthews matchup in reverse where Chicago now has the good defenders that are lacking offensively and Phoenix has the good offensive players that are lacking defensively. Another push.

Rest of the bench on both teams are just too God awful to even bother mentioning. Rather strange that it seems both teams are just polar opposites of last year's winner regarding depth.

Some are going to argue that only a great defensive team shuts down Lebron teams but every team Lebron has ever played on in real life is world's better than this one. And Phoenix though not a great defensive team, kind of mirrors the 2009 Orlando Magic team that took down the Lebron led Cavs but with a better defensive backcourt. That team wasn't great defensively but they were really, really good defensively and I think this Phoenix team can be too if Hedo is playing at a 2008-09 level and not what he did last year.

I have to throw my vote Phoenix's way. I really didn't see how Chicago even got out of the East. They have a horrid leader leading them, they have a foul prone front court playing during the playoffs when calls go one of two ways, they disappear or are called tight, and other than Lebron, if the philosophy is let Lebron score and shut everyone else down, everyone else can and should be shut down because they are a bad, bad offensive group 2-13.

Phoenix in 6 winning the first game back in Chicago to end it when Lebron packs it in and quits on his team because he sees his surrounding parts are not pulling any weight.

[Roy H.]

Baron Davis  vs  Brandon Jennings  -  I can't see any way where someone can say that Phoenix doesn't own this matchup. Davis is a vet, is savy and just a much much better overall player in every way than Jennings.

Is this one really such a mismatch?  Jennings scores a little more, Davis gets a couple more assists.  Both have terrible, terrible efficiency, although Jennings is a better outside shooter.  The defense is probably average to above-average for both.

I'd probably lean a tad bit toward B. Diddy due to his track record, but I wouldn't say that Davis "owns" it.  I'd say it's pretty close.

[StartOrien]

Sorry guys, pulled away from desk longer than expected. I tried catching up on my phone on the way here, I'll try to catch up on the q's fast

[StartOrien]

Phoenix, is it fair to say that the times he's lost in the playoffs, Lebron has had a significantly better (and physically stronger) player on him than John Salmons?  In the 2009 playoffs, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (neither of whom are on Lebron's level) had some big games when Salmons was helping defend them.  Won't Lebron have even more success?

No, it isn't fair. In 2009 when he lost to the Dwight Howard led Orlando Magic there was no "Pierce-type." Check out the statline of that 09 series, its next to impossible for him to reach the same to more success. Someone else has to help, and the Bulls don't have enough help.

[Roy H.]

Phoenix, is it fair to say that the times he's lost in the playoffs, Lebron has had a significantly better (and physically stronger) player on him than John Salmons?  In the 2009 playoffs, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (neither of whom are on Lebron's level) had some big games when Salmons was helping defend them.  Won't Lebron have even more success?

No, it isn't fair. In 2009 when he lost to the Dwight Howard led Orlando Magic there was no "Pierce-type." Check out the statline of that 09 series, its next to impossible for him to reach the same to more success. Someone else has to help, and the Bulls don't have enough help.

To be clear, I was saying that Pierce was one of the guys who had good numbers against Salmons, not that a Pierce-like player needed to defend Lebron.

In '09, I think Pietrus matched up on Lebron a lot.  He's a better defender and physically stronger than Salmons, isn't he?

[StartOrien]

Also, for the Suns:  if Noah *doesn't* get in foul trouble, can you win this series, and why?

At the end of the day IP has to get 96 minutes out of a three man rotation: Ilyasova, Noah and Armundson. 96 minutes. And only two of those players are capable of trying to defend Dwight Howard. What happens if any of them gets in trouble?  Why isn't exhausting more of a topic when two players are getting HUGE bumps in minutes per game.

This kind of rotation works in the East, but not against a team that has Dwight Howard.

[StartOrien]

Phoenix, is it fair to say that the times he's lost in the playoffs, Lebron has had a significantly better (and physically stronger) player on him than John Salmons?  In the 2009 playoffs, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (neither of whom are on Lebron's level) had some big games when Salmons was helping defend them.  Won't Lebron have even more success?

No, it isn't fair. In 2009 when he lost to the Dwight Howard led Orlando Magic there was no "Pierce-type." Check out the statline of that 09 series, its next to impossible for him to reach the same to more success. Someone else has to help, and the Bulls don't have enough help.

To be clear, I was saying that Pierce was one of the guys who had good numbers against Salmons, not that a Pierce-like player needed to defend Lebron.

In '09, I think Pietrus matched up on Lebron a lot.  He's a better defender and physically stronger than Salmons, isn't he?

IMO, not really. Mickael Pietrus is always discussed as one of the elite defenders, but if that was the case, why does he never line up against the leagues best offensive players?

[nickagneta]

Baron Davis  vs  Brandon Jennings  -  I can't see any way where someone can say that Phoenix doesn't own this matchup. Davis is a vet, is savy and just a much much better overall player in every way than Jennings.

Is this one really such a mismatch?  Jennings scores a little more, Davis gets a couple more assists.  Both have terrible, terrible efficiency, although Jennings is a better outside shooter.  The defense is probably average to above-average for both.

I'd probably lean a tad bit toward B. Diddy due to his track record, but I wouldn't say that Davis "owns" it.  I'd say it's pretty close.

In the playoffs under playoff pressure, Davis owns it. I'll trust him to make the tough decisions and make the tough shots over the 2nd year player that had a good first half of the season and awful second half and has only that to show me to convince me he is good enough to beat the vet.

Baron's career playoff TS% is a pretty good 54.6%, a significant jump from his career TS% of 50%. That tells me when Davis hits the playoffs, he makes better decisions and that to me makes him own this match up.

I mean Davis has been a top 10 PG in this league for close to a decade. Erase one 55 point game and Jennings might not even be the 4th best PG in his draft class.