CB Draft Finals: Q&A, Video, and Trash Talk Thread!

[indeedproceed]

I think there's a real question on whether Ilyasova can guard Jamison consistently, and whether he can keep him off the boards.  

(I'd love to see IP address this.)

1) Ilyasova is 24 turning 25, coming off of his first season as a NBA player, playing 81 games. After a year spent adjusting to NBA level talent and strength and adjusting to the new NBA 3pt line, Ilyasova should only improve.

2) Jamison is 34 turning 35 coming off his worst statistical season of the decade, and a season in which he missed 20 games for the first time in 10 years. Jamison should only step back, and since last year seemed to be the season where he started to wind back, I expect it to be a significant step back. On top of that Phoenix will be asking him to play hard every night for 34-36 minutes at least. His body can't take it anymore.

Does point 1 & 2 equal Ilyasova will have a better year next season than Jamison? I think it does...but even if it doesn't, isn't it pretty probable that the perceived gap that separates the two of them is going to narrow quite a bit? I believe Jamison will still be able to score, but his already bad defense will go to worse, and his rebounds should start to really decline, ala Kevin Garnett.

Garnett hasn't forgotten how to shoot...he just doesn't post up nearly as much in the 2-7 foot range around the basket, and his rebounding numbers are in severe decline. I expect similar things from Jamison.

[Roy H.]

I think there's a real question on whether Ilyasova can guard Jamison consistently, and whether he can keep him off the boards.  

(I'd love to see IP address this.)

1) Ilyasova is 24 turning 25, coming off of his first season as a NBA player, playing 81 games. After a year spent adjusting to NBA level talent and strength and adjusting to the new NBA 3pt line, Ilyasova should only improve.

2) Jamison is 34 turning 35 coming off his worst statistical season of the decade, and a season in which he missed 20 games for the first time in 10 years. Jamison should only step back, and since last year seemed to be the season where he started to wind back, I expect it to be a significant step back. On top of that Phoenix will be asking him to play hard every night for 34-36 minutes at least. His body can't take it anymore.

Does point 1 & 2 equal Ilyasova will have a better year next season than Jamison? I think it does...but even if it doesn't, isn't it pretty probable that the perceived gap that separates the two of them is going to narrow quite a bit? I believe Jamison will still be able to score, but his already bad defense will go to worse, and his rebounds should start to really decline, ala Kevin Garnett.

Garnett hasn't forgotten how to shoot...he just doesn't post up nearly as much in the 2-7 foot range around the basket, and his rebounding numbers are in severe decline. I expect similar things from Jamison.

Do the four H2H matchups last year matter at all?  One or two games can be a fluke, but can four in one season?  Jamison had the scoring and rebounding edge (significantly) in all of them, if I'm remembering correctly.

If I'm wrong, let me know.  It just seems like Jamison still outproduces Ilyasova fairly significantly, doesn't he? 

[StartOrien]

Player X: 5.1 fouls Per 36 minutes when playing Dwight Howard
Player y: 5.5 fouls Per 36 minutes when playing Dwight Howard

Which one is Joakim Noah, which one is Kendrick Perkins?

Which one can also get help from Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis

and which one, in this case, would get relief from Louis Armundson and Ilyasova?

[StartOrien]

21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game out of Howard against the Celtics in the playoffs this season, Roy.

[Roy H.]

As much as I like Jamison over Ilyasova (and over Turkoglu), I don't think that matchup is going to be the determining factor here. 

Chicago and Phoenix, please state how your team stacks up in relation to your opponent in the following areas:

1. Defense
2. Rebounding
3. Ball movement
4. Post play
5. Shooting
6. Clutch play
7. Leadership
8. Depth

I'd appreciate answers more in depth than "Chicago is better" or "Phoenix wins this matchup". 

[Who]

Benches

Monroe vs Amundson = Monroe
E.Davis vs Amundson = even
Turkoglu vs TA = Hedo
Rudy vs TA = even
T.Williams vs Maynor = T-Will

I like Chicago's starters over Phoenix's but I think their bench hurts them ... trying to decide whether it's enough to swing the series back into Phoenix's favour or not.

[indeedproceed]

Player X: 5.1 fouls Per 36 minutes when playing Dwight Howard
Player y: 5.5 fouls Per 36 minutes when playing Dwight Howard

Which one is Joakim Noah, which one is Kendrick Perkins?

What are the offensive numbers put up by Howard on each respective guy?

Noah: 17.4 pts, 11.1 rebs, 5.1 fouls
Howard: 22.1 pts, 12.4 rebs, 58% shooting (down from 61%)

Perkins: 9.4 pts, 9.4 rebs, 5.5 fouls
Howard: 15.7 pts, 13.5 rebs, 53% shooting

I think the scoring disparity between the two comes down to 1) Howard took more FGA's vs Noah, 2) Perkins had Garnett next to him and was able to focus completely on Dwight 3) Perkins is a better man defender than Noah.

That doesn't mean Noah won't be able to defend Howard, and it doesn't mean Noah will foul out, just like Perkins didn't.

The real question is how will Phoenix stop LeBron James and Brandon Jennings when they have no one on their team that even remotely approaches the ability?

Orlando Magic had Michael Pietrus, who they played 30 mins a night to harass LeBron James.

Here are Michael Pietrus's minutes played in the Cleveland series in 09: 30, 17, 26, 40, 23, 35

Can you guess which ones were losses for Orlando?

We keep talking about Joakim Noah, but why aren't we talking about how bad defensively literally everyone besides Dwight Howard is?

Matthews: Good defender on 2's his size, but he can't cover LeBron, and he can't stop Miller from getting his shot off

Salmons: Bad to kinda bad defensively,

Jamison: Bad defensively and getting worse,

Baron Davis: aging and battling weight issues, probably more adept at covering shooting guards (ala Jason Kidd) than point guards like Brandon Jennings.

Dwight Howard had 2 good defenders in their role on the court with him at all times, whether it was Courtney Lee or Rashard Lewis or Marcin Gortat. Phoenix has none on the floor, and none on the bench.

EDIT: And also per Roy's concern that he voiced in this thread, the back-and forth debate thread, all Kendrick Perkins numbers are from the start of the 2007-2008 season on. They both started every game I used as sample data so those numbers are valid.

[indeedproceed]

I think there's a real question on whether Ilyasova can guard Jamison consistently, and whether he can keep him off the boards. 

(I'd love to see IP address this.)

1) Ilyasova is 24 turning 25, coming off of his first season as a NBA player, playing 81 games. After a year spent adjusting to NBA level talent and strength and adjusting to the new NBA 3pt line, Ilyasova should only improve.

2) Jamison is 34 turning 35 coming off his worst statistical season of the decade, and a season in which he missed 20 games for the first time in 10 years. Jamison should only step back, and since last year seemed to be the season where he started to wind back, I expect it to be a significant step back. On top of that Phoenix will be asking him to play hard every night for 34-36 minutes at least. His body can't take it anymore.

Does point 1 & 2 equal Ilyasova will have a better year next season than Jamison? I think it does...but even if it doesn't, isn't it pretty probable that the perceived gap that separates the two of them is going to narrow quite a bit? I believe Jamison will still be able to score, but his already bad defense will go to worse, and his rebounds should start to really decline, ala Kevin Garnett.

Garnett hasn't forgotten how to shoot...he just doesn't post up nearly as much in the 2-7 foot range around the basket, and his rebounding numbers are in severe decline. I expect similar things from Jamison.

Do the four H2H matchups last year matter at all?  One or two games can be a fluke, but can four in one season?  Jamison had the scoring and rebounding edge (significantly) in all of them, if I'm remembering correctly.

If I'm wrong, let me know.  It just seems like Jamison still outproduces Ilyasova fairly significantly, doesn't he? 

Wow Roy, you're really playing the devils advocate here huh?

The minutes disparities in those 4 H2H's are pretty off.

There are 3 games over which both players have played 20+ minutes.

If you take those down to a per-36 min stat, it comes out:

Jamison: 16.4 pts, 8.4 Rebs
Ilyasova: 13.3 Pts, 6.4 Reb

Both players are below the players per-36 averages.

[Roy H.]

I think there's a real question on whether Ilyasova can guard Jamison consistently, and whether he can keep him off the boards.  

(I'd love to see IP address this.)

1) Ilyasova is 24 turning 25, coming off of his first season as a NBA player, playing 81 games. After a year spent adjusting to NBA level talent and strength and adjusting to the new NBA 3pt line, Ilyasova should only improve.

2) Jamison is 34 turning 35 coming off his worst statistical season of the decade, and a season in which he missed 20 games for the first time in 10 years. Jamison should only step back, and since last year seemed to be the season where he started to wind back, I expect it to be a significant step back. On top of that Phoenix will be asking him to play hard every night for 34-36 minutes at least. His body can't take it anymore.

Does point 1 & 2 equal Ilyasova will have a better year next season than Jamison? I think it does...but even if it doesn't, isn't it pretty probable that the perceived gap that separates the two of them is going to narrow quite a bit? I believe Jamison will still be able to score, but his already bad defense will go to worse, and his rebounds should start to really decline, ala Kevin Garnett.

Garnett hasn't forgotten how to shoot...he just doesn't post up nearly as much in the 2-7 foot range around the basket, and his rebounding numbers are in severe decline. I expect similar things from Jamison.

Do the four H2H matchups last year matter at all?  One or two games can be a fluke, but can four in one season?  Jamison had the scoring and rebounding edge (significantly) in all of them, if I'm remembering correctly.

If I'm wrong, let me know.  It just seems like Jamison still outproduces Ilyasova fairly significantly, doesn't he?  

Wow Roy, you're really playing the devils advocate here huh?

The minutes disparities in those 4 H2H's are pretty off.

There are 3 games over which both players have played 20+ minutes.

If you take those down to a per-36 min stat, it comes out:

Jamison: 16.4 pts, 8.4 Rebs
Ilyasova: 13.3 Pts, 6.4 Reb

Both players are below the players per-36 averages.

Breaking things down to Per-36 minutes doesn't really convince me, because there are reasons that some players can handle big minutes, while others can't.  

Anyway, I've got Jamison vs. Ilyasova as firmly falling in Jamison's corner, as noted above.  However, that's obviously not the only matchup that is important here.

EDIT:  Like, in the example above, why show Noah's Per-36 minute numbers, when it's clear that he's incapable of playing 36 minutes, especially against Howard?  It gives me the perception -- which I don't believe to be accurate -- that you're trying to trick me with "fuzzy math", rather than trying to convince me with legit arguments.

[Fafnir]

EDIT:  Like, in the example above, why show Noah's Per-36 minute numbers, when it's clear that he's incapable of playing 36 minutes, especially against Howard?  It gives me the perception -- which I don't believe to be accurate -- that you're trying to trick me with "fuzzy math", rather than trying to convince me with legit arguments.

Perkins doesn't play 36 minutes either most of the time. I think saying Noah can't play 36 minutes is probably accurate, I think 30 is more likely.

Its a useful short hand and it also breaks down the rate of production. It highlights that Chicago is fine when Noah is on the court, their problem is when he isn't.

[StartOrien]

Noah: 17.4 pts, 11.1 rebs, 5.1 fouls
Howard: 22.1 pts, 12.4 rebs, 58% shooting (down from 61%)

Again, based off of head to head matchups where in 7 games he's averaged 22 minutes. This is excluding 2 games where he played under five minutes. You are asking him, Armundson and Ilyasova to combine for 96 minutes.

I'm between a meeting right now, will answer all questions soon.

[Who]

EDIT:  Like, in the example above, why show Noah's Per-36 minute numbers, when it's clear that he's incapable of playing 36 minutes, especially against Howard?  It gives me the perception -- which I don't believe to be accurate -- that you're trying to trick me with "fuzzy math", rather than trying to convince me with legit arguments.

Perkins doesn't play 36 minutes either most of the time. I think saying Noah can't play 36 minutes is probably accurate, I think 30 is more likely.

Its a useful short hand and it also breaks down the rate of production. It highlights that Chicago is fine when Noah is on the court, their problem is when he isn't.

Perkins played 35.4 minutes a game against Orlando in the 2009 Playoffs.

When Perk had more help -- Sheed, BBD and KG -- he was able to be more aggressive defensively. But when his team needed him to stay under control with the fouls and remain out there on the court (2009 Playoffs) ... Perk was able to do that.

Joakim Noah will be in a similar situation.

I have no concerns about Noah's ability to play 35-38 minutes a game for the series ... he'll probably have a game or two where he messes up with the foul trouble -- and Chicago will very likely lose those game(s) -- but other than that he'll be fine.

[indeedproceed]

Breaking things down to Per-36 minutes doesn't really convince me, because there are reasons that some players can handle big minutes, while others can't.  

So basically I see it as thus: which is more likely?

1) Ersan Ilyasova becoming significantly better after turning 25 years old, starting for a complete year on a #1 seeded team playing next to the 2x MVP, gaining another year of experience with the NBA 3pt line and NBA talent

or

2) Antawn Jamison, will either get better or keep the status quot despite coming off a near career low year in terms of games played, minutes played, and points per game. Also he will be doing this as he is turning 35 years old and playing more games for bigger minutes than he did the season previous.

I do not understand how that is at all defensible.

[Roy H.]

I know I've got lots of questions, but I'm genuinely trying to figure this one out.

Chicago, let's assume that Phoenix's defensive strategy is to have Howard defend the paint, while covering Lebron with Salmons, using Matthews to help in cutting off penetration (sort of like the Celts do in using Ray Allen). 

How does Chicago attack a defensive game plan like that?

==============================================================

Phoenix, is it fair to say that the times he's lost in the playoffs, Lebron has had a significantly better (and physically stronger) player on him than John Salmons?  In the 2009 playoffs, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (neither of whom are on Lebron's level) had some big games when Salmons was helping defend them.  Won't Lebron have even more success?

[indeedproceed]

EDIT:  Like, in the example above, why show Noah's Per-36 minute numbers, when it's clear that he's incapable of playing 36 minutes, especially against Howard?  It gives me the perception -- which I don't believe to be accurate -- that you're trying to trick me with "fuzzy math", rather than trying to convince me with legit arguments.

Perkins doesn't play 36 minutes either most of the time. I think saying Noah can't play 36 minutes is probably accurate, I think 30 is more likely.

Its a useful short hand and it also breaks down the rate of production. It highlights that Chicago is fine when Noah is on the court, their problem is when he isn't.

I'm not saying Noah will play 36 minutes necessarily. I'm saying in 36 minutes of play Joakim Noah averages 5 fouls when playing Dwight Howard. I'm saying scoring while he compares well against Howard, so it will not be a situation where Howard is getting massive points to Noah's 2 or 3 FG's. Joakim Noah is not as good as Dwight Howard, he is not a peer. That said, he can still do something against him, like rebound and score, and defend.

Who is going to be the guy to challenge LeBron?