Powe or Davis?

[Brickowski]

He would be better against double teams if he were a better passer.  But he isn't.

Really, it is court awareness and passing, not individual moves, that makes BBD more attractive than Powe, although Powe is better at grinding out baskets in the low post.

[Chris]

He would be better against double teams if he were a better passer.  But he isn't.

Really, it is court awareness and passing, not individual moves, that makes BBD more effective than Powe.

I agree.  It is the same thing that makes Brian Scalabrine more effective than Tony Allen.

[Bankshot]

He would be better against double teams if he were a better passer.  But he isn't.

Really, it is court awareness and passing, not individual moves, that makes BBD more attractive than Powe, although Powe is better at grinding out baskets in the low post.

Good point.  Agreed.

[expobear]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

I respect you a great deal Chris, but you are not taking in factors that are effective both of these players.

When you play a restricted role as both Davis and Powe do, you aren't allowed to explore facets of your game that other players with larger roles are.

Also, playing minutes with less talented players, as both Powe and Davis have had to with the 2nd unit, limits some of the things each can do.

I think Powe's 7pts/4rbs in 14 minutes of play is pretty good - especially considering he gets 4 shots a game and may touch the ball on the block about 6-7 times in 3-4 rotation stints on the court - he's not encouraged to shoot the ball, even though he can, and he doesn't get very many easy baskets because nobody on his unit can dribble penetrate or run the pick-and-roll effectively - add to it the fact that Davis' faceup game doesn't force defenders to commit to him and you have a serious limitation that doesn't have to do with Powe himself.

Now Powe bears some responsibility as well - this isn't a blame game - he holds the ball too long on the block, which is a DIRECT effect of Doc and the staff telling him to work on his reads. He is dealing with more double-teams than he ever has, which is why the team stopped feeding him the rock on the 2nd unit after the first 3 weeks of the season - he was getting doubled on a majority of his posessions at that point.

You're seeing a player who is getting very few easy baskets because of lineups, has no rhythm because of limited touches, and is restricted by his role designation.

I don't think teams have "figured out" anything about Powe. He's being defended the same way he was last year. The difference is his usage. no pick-and-roll, no basket cuts, out-of-rhythm post game with very limited touches.

As Powe continues to work, he'll incorporate his face-up and as his role increases he will mix his post moves up more frequently. --- we've already seen more of his arsenal than he's show, its just a matter of being able to test it out with more regularity - which is not his role right now with this team...

Doc is already mixing up the rotation and Powe has seen an increase in productivity as he's gotten more minutes with Rondo and KG...this trend will continue...

Bill,

Do you think Powe will be around next year?  I think if Powe is to become the player you think he's capable of becoming, Powe has to do it elsewhere.  He is just not going to get the minutes in Boston to develop.

I'm probably one of Powe's biggest fans but I do see his limitations. I don't think he has a reliable jumper, although it's not something that can't be developed through practice and confidence shown by management. He seems to have poor court awareness, at least when defending off the ball and screening out. Again, I think this can be taught.

Nice analysis on Powe and why he's been less consistent this year. 

 

[BillfromBoston]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

I respect you a great deal Chris, but you are not taking in factors that are effective both of these players.

When you play a restricted role as both Davis and Powe do, you aren't allowed to explore facets of your game that other players with larger roles are.

Also, playing minutes with less talented players, as both Powe and Davis have had to with the 2nd unit, limits some of the things each can do.

I think Powe's 7pts/4rbs in 14 minutes of play is pretty good - especially considering he gets 4 shots a game and may touch the ball on the block about 6-7 times in 3-4 rotation stints on the court - he's not encouraged to shoot the ball, even though he can, and he doesn't get very many easy baskets because nobody on his unit can dribble penetrate or run the pick-and-roll effectively - add to it the fact that Davis' faceup game doesn't force defenders to commit to him and you have a serious limitation that doesn't have to do with Powe himself.

Now Powe bears some responsibility as well - this isn't a blame game - he holds the ball too long on the block, which is a DIRECT effect of Doc and the staff telling him to work on his reads. He is dealing with more double-teams than he ever has, which is why the team stopped feeding him the rock on the 2nd unit after the first 3 weeks of the season - he was getting doubled on a majority of his posessions at that point.

You're seeing a player who is getting very few easy baskets because of lineups, has no rhythm because of limited touches, and is restricted by his role designation.

I don't think teams have "figured out" anything about Powe. He's being defended the same way he was last year. The difference is his usage. no pick-and-roll, no basket cuts, out-of-rhythm post game with very limited touches.

As Powe continues to work, he'll incorporate his face-up and as his role increases he will mix his post moves up more frequently. --- we've already seen more of his arsenal than he's show, its just a matter of being able to test it out with more regularity - which is not his role right now with this team...

Doc is already mixing up the rotation and Powe has seen an increase in productivity as he's gotten more minutes with Rondo and KG...this trend will continue...

I absolutely disagree that Powe is not being asked to shoot.  In fact, he has been the focal point of the offense for the second unit for much of the season.  They are usually doing everything they can to try to force the ball into him. 


Of course I will agree that he has been a victim of playing with bad players, since even though they try to get the ball into them, when your PG is Eddie House, who has never created space to make an entry pass in his life, it makes it pretty difficult. 

I also think he really needs to start making some adjustments now that other teams have adjusted to him.  He made a living last year, and early this year by creating contact, and getting to the line.  Lately though, it seems that teams have gotten a book on him, and adjusted.  Defenders have started backing away, which has thrown him off.  He looks like he is still expecting the contact, but when it doesn't come, his shot goes off target.  He needs to start trying to concentrate more on finishing, rather than just trying to draw the fouls.

And perhaps I overstated my case, saying that Powe is not a starter in this league.  There are absolutely some teams where he could start on right now (Memphis jumps out at me, as does Golden State).  What I meant was that he was a ways away from being an impact starter on a good team. 

IMO, he still needs to become a much better team defender, passer, and mid-range shooter (if he has that shot, he needs to get confidence in it then), before he will be able to take on a bigger role on a very good team. 


Now, if anyone can make those improvements, it is him...but it is still premature to be annointing him as any more than a role-player.

When it comes down to it, I am just trying to slow down some of the hopes that Powe is going to be taking over for Garnett any day soon. 

...he's not going to "take over" for KG anytime soon and he'll never fill the same role on a team that KG fills - but I believe that he can be a starting PF on a team that is wing dominant in scoring and would rely on him for a bit of interior scoring and rebounding/defending, which I think he is capable of doing adaquetly now, but will be much more well-rounded in 2 years time...

[Tr1boy]

if one had to be chosen big baby is looking like he will be.

If he can keep his midrange shooting going, man he is going to be a somekind of player one day in the league.

I really like Big baby, kg, pp, garnett, allen, rondo lineup. Big baby gives you perks tough inside presence and scals ability to open up the floor(not as good but better than perk) in one

[MattG12]

if one had to be chosen big baby is looking like he will be.

If he can keep his midrange shooting going, man he is going to be a somekind of player one day in the league.

I really like Big baby, kg, pp, garnett, allen, rondo lineup. Big baby gives you perks tough inside presence and scals ability to open up the floor(not as good but better than perk) in one

I guess KG is so good that it's kind of like having two of him out there on the floor...

[Bankshot]

BBD>Powe

[cordobes]

Currently, Powe is the better player.

I see a "Start Big Baby over Perkins Scal" thread coming though.

[TradeProposalDude]

Glen Davis is the superior basketball player.

His effectiveness is due to his basketball intelligence. That is why he is a better passer, defender, and far less mechanical than Powe.

Leon's ability is mostly a result of hard work and grinding it out. He does well with what he's been given, but that's frankly not a whole lot.

[Tr1boy]

Glen Davis is the superior basketball player.

His effectiveness is due to his basketball intelligence. That is why he is a better passer, defender, and far less mechanical than Powe.

Leon's ability is mostly a result of hard work and grinding it out. He does well with what he's been given, but that's frankly not a whole lot.

I agree. His iq is high as well as his footspeed for his size. Guys like shaq and howard would rather face the taller big z than big baby on defense.

also powe at 6'8 trying to bulldoze his points in the offensive end won't work eventually and needs to establish a mid range jumper. (which i'm not overly optimistic about)

Big babys girth, footspeed, intellegence and mid range jumper(if anything like the past few games) helps him massively overcome his 6'8 6'9 height and it ables him to play against pretty much anyone in the league. This can't be said about powe currently.

[BillfromBoston]

I think this is fairly moot since everybody seems to agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  However, building off of what Bill said:

Assumption:  BBD and Powe play roughly equal minutes, and spend the majority of their minutes playing together (both are true)

If Powe grabs + 2.2 rebounds as compared to the opposing power forward, and BBD grabs -1.6 rebounds as compared to the opposing center, that means the combo is roughly getting rebounded by 0.6 rebounds per 48 minutes against opposing big men.  When you compare their own rebounding numbers (11.75/48 for Powe, 8.875/48 for BBD) you see who is most likely responsible for this disparity.

As Bill was suggesting, BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players.  The fact that Powe has a significantly better rebound rate suggests that he is the better rebounder.  BBD is the only one of the four front court big men who see regular minutes that has a negative rebound differential, which is one more indicator that he's of the same caliber in terms of rebounding. 

Well, just to throw a wrench into this, I don't think you can discount the fact that Davis actually blitzes the perimeter, like he is supposed to, while Powe is often just hanging around the basket, instead of making the correct rotations.  Its a whole lot easier to grab rebounds that way.

But of course I do agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  I just think the numbers are a little skewed.

I don't agree with that assessment of Powe's perimeter defense and recovery. You are using selective memory and valuing Powe's total volume of possessions. Powe has played more than adaquete help defense this year, even beginning to pick up his help defensive blocks and steals. Coupled with his ability to pick up fouls.

Glen Davis often roams off his man at inappropriate times and we're not tallying the "gamble" plays that he gets burned on. I think Doc trusts Davis in more perimeter defensive possessions because of his superior "recovery rate" but there are still concessions being made in this exchange.

Regardless, Powe's ability to play above the rim, coupled with his general agility and ability to power through contact with force on those moves gives him a huge edge in offensive potential.

I think both are best suited to play off the starters right now, as Davis displayed tonight in Orlando - the game opens up when the defense isn't keyed on you. Powe has benefited similarly to these situations.

I definately think that Powe is searching on offense right now though. I fully agree that he is searching out contact to frequently and not utilizing his finese game to full affect. This is something we saw Perkins do as well up until this season.

I have little doubt that Powe will put his offensive arsenal together with time and I believe the rate at which we see it will be a matter of committing him to a role where he has both the freedom to explore his game and the support players around him to let him pick his spots.

Davis has more versatility on defense because he is the better defender as a center, but I don't see an amazing offensive capability within him unless he becomes extremely efficient with that shot. Even then, he'll have to learn to set up drives and pull-up after he's gotten the set shot down and that is clearly a step beyond what we've seen from him.

Powe and Davis over the past 2 years:

                Davis/Powe

21+ points: 0/5
10-20 points:6/32
1-9 points: 132/123

Davis played in 9 more games and was outproduced in double digit scoring games 32 i to 6 in comparable minutes ...most team defensive metrics have him performing at a higher level when put in the same lineups with other starters. He is a better rebounder and he performs better in match-ups against other PF's, which is both player's natural position.  

I fully agree that Powe has had his struggles this year, but those struggles are still keeping him in good company in terms of production per minute played. He stacks up well against the league averages for his position and he is gaining experience and improving his perimeter defense, help, reading of double-teams, and eliminating fouls...I don't see an offensive regression as much as I see a difference in usage, support, and rhythm.

The best thing Davis has going for him is that he is 2 years younger and isn't in peak physical condition, so he has more time in which to match or surpass Powe's current production at the same age.

However, Powe missed the better part of two seasons in HS and NCAA rehabbing his knee, so developmentally they've both have equal experience for the most part.

It seems easy to me based off their current bodies of work that Powe is the more productive of the two and has a greater chance of reaching his potential - he's done more in the same amount of time and their is strong reason to believe his best ball is in front of him as a player.

Davis has more question marks in terms of fulfilling his potential and has a less established track record. I'm all for admitting that Davis has played substantially better over the past month, but his overall production in that time still pales in comparison to the contributions that Powe shown with similar opportunity.

I fully believe that a great deal of fans of this team operate on way to much hope and desire and not enough on established trends. I truly do see what Davis "could" be, but I have to temper that against what is established and what is "probable."

Starting caliber players produce statistically and Powe has won that battle on both sides of the ball. He clearly isn't better than Davis in ever facet of the game - I'm not claiming that - but watching both players and knowing what the league standards are for producing based off usage, Powe is STILL trending significantly higher against the league averages.

I think both players are talented, but this argument is not a game-to-game thing until Davis puts in a sustained run of high level play that exceeds what we've already seen from Powe.

We'll see what the team does with each, but I wouldn't be surprised if Powe is retained and Davis is not. Barring a trade that brings in something of real significance, i think Powe is the future backup PF with the best upside for development into the future....doesn't mean i'm right, but we've all apparently drawn our lines, and this is mine...

[MattG12]

I think this is fairly moot since everybody seems to agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  However, building off of what Bill said:

Assumption:  BBD and Powe play roughly equal minutes, and spend the majority of their minutes playing together (both are true)

If Powe grabs + 2.2 rebounds as compared to the opposing power forward, and BBD grabs -1.6 rebounds as compared to the opposing center, that means the combo is roughly getting rebounded by 0.6 rebounds per 48 minutes against opposing big men.  When you compare their own rebounding numbers (11.75/48 for Powe, 8.875/48 for BBD) you see who is most likely responsible for this disparity.

As Bill was suggesting, BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players.  The fact that Powe has a significantly better rebound rate suggests that he is the better rebounder.  BBD is the only one of the four front court big men who see regular minutes that has a negative rebound differential, which is one more indicator that he's of the same caliber in terms of rebounding. 

Well, just to throw a wrench into this, I don't think you can discount the fact that Davis actually blitzes the perimeter, like he is supposed to, while Powe is often just hanging around the basket, instead of making the correct rotations.  Its a whole lot easier to grab rebounds that way.

But of course I do agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  I just think the numbers are a little skewed.

I don't agree with that assessment of Powe's perimeter defense and recovery. You are using selective memory and valuing Powe's total volume of possessions. Powe has played more than adaquete help defense this year, even beginning to pick up his help defensive blocks and steals. Coupled with his ability to pick up fouls.

Glen Davis often roams off his man at inappropriate times and we're not tallying the "gamble" plays that he gets burned on. I think Doc trusts Davis in more perimeter defensive possessions because of his superior "recovery rate" but there are still concessions being made in this exchange.

Regardless, Powe's ability to play above the rim, coupled with his general agility and ability to power through contact with force on those moves gives him a huge edge in offensive potential.

I think both are best suited to play off the starters right now, as Davis displayed tonight in Orlando - the game opens up when the defense isn't keyed on you. Powe has benefited similarly to these situations.

I definately think that Powe is searching on offense right now though. I fully agree that he is searching out contact to frequently and not utilizing his finese game to full affect. This is something we saw Perkins do as well up until this season.

I have little doubt that Powe will put his offensive arsenal together with time and I believe the rate at which we see it will be a matter of committing him to a role where he has both the freedom to explore his game and the support players around him to let him pick his spots.

Davis has more versatility on defense because he is the better defender as a center, but I don't see an amazing offensive capability within him unless he becomes extremely efficient with that shot. Even then, he'll have to learn to set up drives and pull-up after he's gotten the set shot down and that is clearly a step beyond what we've seen from him.

Powe and Davis over the past 2 years:

                Davis/Powe

21+ points: 0/5
10-20 points:6/32
1-9 points: 132/123

Davis played in 9 more games and was outproduced in double digit scoring games 32 i to 6 in comparable minutes ...most team defensive metrics have him performing at a higher level when put in the same lineups with other starters. He is a better rebounder and he performs better in match-ups against other PF's, which is both player's natural position.  

I fully agree that Powe has had his struggles this year, but those struggles are still keeping him in good company in terms of production per minute played. He stacks up well against the league averages for his position and he is gaining experience and improving his perimeter defense, help, reading of double-teams, and eliminating fouls...I don't see an offensive regression as much as I see a difference in usage, support, and rhythm.

The best thing Davis has going for him is that he is 2 years younger and isn't in peak physical condition, so he has more time in which to match or surpass Powe's current production at the same age.

However, Powe missed the better part of two seasons in HS and NCAA rehabbing his knee, so developmentally they've both have equal experience for the most part.

It seems easy to me based off their current bodies of work that Powe is the more productive of the two and has a greater chance of reaching his potential - he's done more in the same amount of time and their is strong reason to believe his best ball is in front of him as a player.

Davis has more question marks in terms of fulfilling his potential and has a less established track record. I'm all for admitting that Davis has played substantially better over the past month, but his overall production in that time still pales in comparison to the contributions that Powe shown with similar opportunity.

I fully believe that a great deal of fans of this team operate on way to much hope and desire and not enough on established trends. I truly do see what Davis "could" be, but I have to temper that against what is established and what is "probable."

Starting caliber players produce statistically and Powe has won that battle on both sides of the ball. He clearly isn't better than Davis in ever facet of the game - I'm not claiming that - but watching both players and knowing what the league standards are for producing based off usage, Powe is STILL trending significantly higher against the league averages.

I think both players are talented, but this argument is not a game-to-game thing until Davis puts in a sustained run of high level play that exceeds what we've already seen from Powe.

We'll see what the team does with each, but I wouldn't be surprised if Powe is retained and Davis is not. Barring a trade that brings in something of real significance, i think Powe is the future backup PF with the best upside for development into the future....doesn't mean i'm right, but we've all apparently drawn our lines, and this is mine...

This topic doesn't interest me very much, and I'm not going to read this... but you get a TP for taking the time to say all that.

[BillfromBoston]

I'd take Powe, simply so I don't have to watch Baby take 15 foot jumpers anymore.

he's actualy shooting that jumper fairly well for a bench player, and it helps the bench spread the floor alot.

There's alot of things i don't like about BBD game. a developing 15 ft jumper is not one of them.

I don't agree that it's developing. I agree that he's taking it more often, but I'm not so sure it's truly improving. I think his fg percentage is way too low for a PF

How about some patience?  People keep ignoring the fact that this kid is only in his 2nd year.  He only starting taking the shot this season.  The Celtics think he can make that shot because that's what he did in college.  Every time Powe has a lousy game (which has been pretty frequent lately), no one says a word, as soon as BBD has a poor game, everyone wants him gone. LOL

The problem I have with this thinking is that Powe's "terrible" games happen about as frequently as Davis' "huge" games..Powe has been more consistently explosive - as inconsistent as that has been - Powe blows up for big scoring game relative to his minutes far, far more freqently and his defense has been very solid.

Davis plays more when Powe doesn't show early that he's in an offensive groove - simple as that...if Powe has it going, they ride him...and he does it a great deal more than Davis..

[BillfromBoston]

As a said the other day, Powe is what he is.  A young Reggie Evans, for want of a better comparable.  There's nothing wrong with that.

If you keep wishing for Powe (or BBD) to become the next Garnett, you will be forever disappointed.

...that may be the worst comparison ever...

Who would you compare him to? 

He's very comparable to Paul Millsap before this year's injuries boosted Millsap into tons of PT and possessions...he is on a similar trajectory to Udonis Haslem as far as rate of development, so I really don't concern myself with the ups and downs of his first 2 years of consistent PT.

I respect a lot of posters on here, but I do see a distinct lack of understanding the process of development. Minutes, role, opportunity, and rate of growth are all nuanced things when it comes to the development of most role players.

People are so conditioned to watch stars develop and don't understand how role players like Kurt Thomas and Derek Fisher develop into commodities when they hit their late 20's...

I believe Powe will be a very valuable player in time and I place his probability of development as being fairly high - substantially greater than my faith that Davis will do the same...that's what it boils down to...

Reggie Evens, the quality role player that he's been, is far less talented than Leon Powe...