I think this is fairly moot since everybody seems to agree that Powe is the better rebounder. However, building off of what Bill said:
Assumption: BBD and Powe play roughly equal minutes, and spend the majority of their minutes playing together (both are true)
If Powe grabs + 2.2 rebounds as compared to the opposing power forward, and BBD grabs -1.6 rebounds as compared to the opposing center, that means the combo is roughly getting rebounded by 0.6 rebounds per 48 minutes against opposing big men. When you compare their own rebounding numbers (11.75/48 for Powe, 8.875/48 for BBD) you see who is most likely responsible for this disparity.
As Bill was suggesting, BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players. The fact that Powe has a significantly better rebound rate suggests that he is the better rebounder. BBD is the only one of the four front court big men who see regular minutes that has a negative rebound differential, which is one more indicator that he's of the same caliber in terms of rebounding.
Well, just to throw a wrench into this, I don't think you can discount the fact that Davis actually blitzes the perimeter, like he is supposed to, while Powe is often just hanging around the basket, instead of making the correct rotations. Its a whole lot easier to grab rebounds that way.
But of course I do agree that Powe is the better rebounder. I just think the numbers are a little skewed.
I don't agree with that assessment of Powe's perimeter defense and recovery. You are using selective memory and valuing Powe's total volume of possessions. Powe has played more than adaquete help defense this year, even beginning to pick up his help defensive blocks and steals. Coupled with his ability to pick up fouls.
Glen Davis often roams off his man at inappropriate times and we're not tallying the "gamble" plays that he gets burned on. I think Doc trusts Davis in more perimeter defensive possessions because of his superior "recovery rate" but there are still concessions being made in this exchange.
Regardless, Powe's ability to play above the rim, coupled with his general agility and ability to power through contact with force on those moves gives him a huge edge in offensive potential.
I think both are best suited to play off the starters right now, as Davis displayed tonight in Orlando - the game opens up when the defense isn't keyed on you. Powe has benefited similarly to these situations.
I definately think that Powe is searching on offense right now though. I fully agree that he is searching out contact to frequently and not utilizing his finese game to full affect. This is something we saw Perkins do as well up until this season.
I have little doubt that Powe will put his offensive arsenal together with time and I believe the rate at which we see it will be a matter of committing him to a role where he has both the freedom to explore his game and the support players around him to let him pick his spots.
Davis has more versatility on defense because he is the better defender as a center, but I don't see an amazing offensive capability within him unless he becomes extremely efficient with that shot. Even then, he'll have to learn to set up drives and pull-up after he's gotten the set shot down and that is clearly a step beyond what we've seen from him.
Powe and Davis over the past 2 years:
Davis/Powe
21+ points: 0/5
10-20 points:6/32
1-9 points: 132/123
Davis played in 9 more games and was outproduced in double digit scoring games 32 i to 6 in comparable minutes ...most team defensive metrics have him performing at a higher level when put in the same lineups with other starters. He is a better rebounder and he performs better in match-ups against other PF's, which is both player's natural position.
I fully agree that Powe has had his struggles this year, but those struggles are still keeping him in good company in terms of production per minute played. He stacks up well against the league averages for his position and he is gaining experience and improving his perimeter defense, help, reading of double-teams, and eliminating fouls...I don't see an offensive regression as much as I see a difference in usage, support, and rhythm.
The best thing Davis has going for him is that he is 2 years younger and isn't in peak physical condition, so he has more time in which to match or surpass Powe's current production at the same age.
However, Powe missed the better part of two seasons in HS and NCAA rehabbing his knee, so developmentally they've both have equal experience for the most part.
It seems easy to me based off their current bodies of work that Powe is the more productive of the two and has a greater chance of reaching his potential - he's done more in the same amount of time and their is strong reason to believe his best ball is in front of him as a player.
Davis has more question marks in terms of fulfilling his potential and has a less established track record. I'm all for admitting that Davis has played substantially better over the past month, but his overall production in that time still pales in comparison to the contributions that Powe shown with similar opportunity.
I fully believe that a great deal of fans of this team operate on way to much hope and desire and not enough on established trends. I truly do see what Davis "could" be, but I have to temper that against what is established and what is "probable."
Starting caliber players produce statistically and Powe has won that battle on both sides of the ball. He clearly isn't better than Davis in ever facet of the game - I'm not claiming that - but watching both players and knowing what the league standards are for producing based off usage, Powe is STILL trending significantly higher against the league averages.
I think both players are talented, but this argument is not a game-to-game thing until Davis puts in a sustained run of high level play that exceeds what we've already seen from Powe.
We'll see what the team does with each, but I wouldn't be surprised if Powe is retained and Davis is not. Barring a trade that brings in something of real significance, i think Powe is the future backup PF with the best upside for development into the future....doesn't mean i'm right, but we've all apparently drawn our lines, and this is mine...