Powe or Davis?

[Bankshot]

BBD has good potential if he loses the weight. Don't see much upside there otherwise.

Powe has more ability and upside if BBD doesn't lose the weight.

What's Powe's upside?  BBD's upside is a guy who can stick the jumper, rebound, play very good defense and be versatile enough to play backup center.  I don't see Powe's potential beyond being a good low post scorer, because he hasn't shown anything else.

Any reason you're listing rebounding as a skill for BBD and not for Powe, despite Powe outrebounding him?  Powe outrebounds his opponents consistently (+2.2/48 minutes), while BBD gets outrebounded by his (-1.6/48 minutes).

That's one of the crappiest stats I've ever seen. Though Powe being a good rebounder is true, but judging a good rebounder based on outrebounding their counterpart opponent is complete crap, especially when you consider that the bulk of Davis opponents are centers.

BBD gets outrebounded by Powe, and consistently loses rebounding matchups to his opponents.  Powe has grabbed a higher percentage of available rebounds than Davis, both on offense and defense.  Whatever statistical metric you want to look at -- as well as observation -- Powe is clearly a better rebounder than BBD.

Also, why is considering whether a player *consistently* gets outrebounded by his opponent "complete crap" in evaluating a good rebounder?  Isn't part of rebounding keeping the man you're guarding off the boards?  It would be more helpful, of course, if the stat was broken out into offensive and defensive rebounds, but since the Celtics generally shoot a higher percentage than their opponent, the stat (if skewed) should be in BBD's favor, not against him.

And I wasn't disputing that Powe is a better rebounder, I believe he is, but I question the motive behind using such a flawed stat when it really paints Davis in a bad light as far as rebounding goes.

The reason I think it's complete crap is because it lacks consideration for many factors. The stat, as currently presented, is akin to me saying that you're faster than me because you've beaten your opponent in all the sprints while I have lost to mine. But what gets lost is that you're running against the little girl in the corner of your block, while I'm running against Carl Lewis. You're holding against Davis the fact that he's rebounding against the likes of Howard and Battie, while applauding Powe for outrebounding Rashard Lewis (if that's the case at all, and I'm aware that this is simply a minute sample).

Plus those stats try to present rebounding as if it were a one on one matchup, when it isn't. You're trying to grab the rebound against 5 opponents and 4 other players from your team. A rebound for your team is a net positive for you because usually it's the whole team boxing out, etc. that works together to grab the rebound. So wether or not Davis is the one that actually grabs the rebound should be incosequential. It's also true that there are numerous times in which Davis doesn't grab the rebound but he's the one the made the effort to keep the ball alive, my observation tells me that with Powe he's a better rebound grabber with his long hands.

I also doubt the stat tracks the person you're actually rebounding against on the floor. If there was a switch, and Powe ends up guarding and rebounding "against" Howard and Howard grabs the rebound I'm pretty sure it'll count against Davis. It works both ways, but for those types of reasons the stat is pure crap because the data gathered is crap. The most important aspect of any stats is the sample. How it was gathered and the sample size, if those are flawed the stat is flawed just like any conclusion drawn in an argument with false premises.

You want to make the case for Powe being a good rebounder? Go ahead, but use relevant stats as it pertains Powe instead of bringing these types of comparisons with faulty data and information.

Agreed.  I think BBD is in shape, for him.  The kid already lost over 50 lbs and it probably feels to him like he's thin, especially the way he's able to move around... the kid has an abundance of energy.  He's certainly not lazy.  I wish someone would ask Doc about BBD's conditioning.  I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they like BBD at his current weight.

[Chris]

The choice comes down to Davis. 

If he ever get serious and gets in shape, he is the choice. 

If doesn't, Powe is the choice.

I hate this "in shape" thing.  Yeah, he is heavy, but he also is clearly in excellent condition, based on the fact that he is able to go full speed without getting tired for a long period of time. 

He could lose some weight, but I am not confident that is in his best interest...at least not the way the C's are using him.  Down the road, if they want to have him play permanently as a PF, then dropping some weight might be good, but right now, I think his weight is one of his strengths...especially considering he has been able to maintain his quick feet.

Oliver Miller did good things early in his career as well without working on his overall physical shape.  He ended up washing out.

Same with Kevin Duckworth.


It more then just how he is playing on the court now.  It is about his long term commitment to the game as it relates to the Celtics long term commitment to him.

Fair enough.  But I just think that it is absolutely within the realm of possibility, based on the way that they have used Davis, that they asked him not to shed too much weight over the summer.  That may change in the future, as the way he is used changes, but right now, I think he is doing a hell of a job out there at the weight he is at, so I am not going to complain about it.  As soon as the weight becomes more of a detriment than a possitive, then he can try to shed it.  That day has not come IMO.

[Chris]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

[BudweiserCeltic]

The choice comes down to Davis. 

If he ever get serious and gets in shape, he is the choice. 

If doesn't, Powe is the choice.

I hate this "in shape" thing.  Yeah, he is heavy, but he also is clearly in excellent condition, based on the fact that he is able to go full speed without getting tired for a long period of time. 

He could lose some weight, but I am not confident that is in his best interest...at least not the way the C's are using him.  Down the road, if they want to have him play permanently as a PF, then dropping some weight might be good, but right now, I think his weight is one of his strengths...especially considering he has been able to maintain his quick feet.

Oliver Miller did good things early in his career as well without working on his overall physical shape.  He ended up washing out.

Same with Kevin Duckworth.


It more then just how he is playing on the court now.  It is about his long term commitment to the game as it relates to the Celtics long term commitment to him.

Fair enough.  But I just think that it is absolutely within the realm of possibility, based on the way that they have used Davis, that they asked him not to shed too much weight over the summer.  That may change in the future, as the way he is used changes, but right now, I think he is doing a hell of a job out there at the weight he is at, so I am not going to complain about it.  As soon as the weight becomes more of a detriment than a possitive, then he can try to shed it.  That day has not come IMO.

Although weightloss will be good for him, I think there has been more of an effort to build up his muscles rather than simply losing weight. So even though it's not quite as evident, he might have improved quite a bit as far as body fat is concerned while not losing that many pounds. Of course, this is just an assumption... but no one is stopping anyone from the opposite assumption that Davis is eating himself out of the league simply because he isn't seemingly losing weight.

[Chris]

The choice comes down to Davis. 

If he ever get serious and gets in shape, he is the choice. 

If doesn't, Powe is the choice.

I hate this "in shape" thing.  Yeah, he is heavy, but he also is clearly in excellent condition, based on the fact that he is able to go full speed without getting tired for a long period of time. 

He could lose some weight, but I am not confident that is in his best interest...at least not the way the C's are using him.  Down the road, if they want to have him play permanently as a PF, then dropping some weight might be good, but right now, I think his weight is one of his strengths...especially considering he has been able to maintain his quick feet.

Oliver Miller did good things early in his career as well without working on his overall physical shape.  He ended up washing out.

Same with Kevin Duckworth.


It more then just how he is playing on the court now.  It is about his long term commitment to the game as it relates to the Celtics long term commitment to him.

Fair enough.  But I just think that it is absolutely within the realm of possibility, based on the way that they have used Davis, that they asked him not to shed too much weight over the summer.  That may change in the future, as the way he is used changes, but right now, I think he is doing a hell of a job out there at the weight he is at, so I am not going to complain about it.  As soon as the weight becomes more of a detriment than a possitive, then he can try to shed it.  That day has not come IMO.

Although weightloss will be good for him, I think there has been more of an effort to build up his muscles rather than simply losing weight. So even though it's not quite as evident, he might have improved quite a bit as far as body fat is concerned while not losing that many pounds. Of course, this is just an assumption... but no one is stopping anyone from the opposite assumption that Davis is eating himself out of the league simply because he isn't seemingly losing weight.

I agree with this completely.  I actually think he looks like he has absolutely replaced a good deal of fat with muscle since last season.  Of course, there is no way to prove this, but I certainly feel confident that if he didn't, we would have heard Doc calling him out for not improving his body makeup.

Also, I do want to clarify that I don't see Davis in the longterm plans of the C's.  I have a feeling he will be worth one more contract (maybe for 2-3 years), and then he will likely be looking for a large contract, in the full MLE range...which he will use to pay for an Old Country Buffet to be built in his house, and he will then go the way of Oliver Miller.  But I think for the next 2-3 years, on a reasonable contract (so he is still motivated to play for his first "big" contract) he will be a very valuable role player on this team, providing energy, and defensive stability.

[Who]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

I disagree, I think Powe has been very effective with the minutes he has received and that's why he deserves more minutes.

There's only two players in the league who score 6ppg and get 4rpg in less than 17 minutes. Powe is one of them. There's only five players who get those numbers in under 20 minutes (25% more minutes than Powe). Leon Powe has been very effective in the minutes he has received.


Anyway, Chris I think you misconstrued by comment (I didn't say it clearly, my fault) about the minutes, I wasn't commenting weren't about whether he's playing his rightful allocation of minutes on this team or not.

I've having trouble wording what I was trying to say ---- how Powe forwards his career and shows whether he's deserving of becoming a starter or not, which he's unlikely to do over the next 2-3 years while playing behind KG. I think minutes are a bigger problem than development because I think (like several other backup power forwards) he might already be, or be close to being, a credible starter for some teams --- still having trouble wording it, but something like that.

[Who]

I think BBD is in fine shape for the type of player he currently is. So much of his defense is based on his strength and heft, so his size helps him.

I just think he has limited potential as this type of player, I don't see how he becomes something that is far greater than what he currently is. I think he has to change his body and subsequently his game in order to have potential as a prospect (make better use of the obvious well rounded skills he has).

[BillfromBoston]

Powe is a better scorer right now, but BBD is a better passer and has more upside.

To win now, I'd take Powe.  To build for the future, I'd take BBD. Powe is what he is.  BBD can be more than he is right now.  For example, if BBD learns how to upfake, he can double his offensive production in a very short time.  If Don Nelson gets fired, they should bring him in to tutor BBD.

..In what universe are you qualified to say Powe "is what he is" but Davis "can be more than he is right now," with a straight face?

Powe's played an extremely restricted role in limited minutes over two seasons and some change - less than 3000 minutes total - you  haven't even seen his entire offensive repertoire on display nor are you evaluating his progress as a player relative the norms for a young post player.

Leon Powe is about half the player he can become - he doesn't have the physical upside that BBD has - since he isn't fat as h&ll, but he sure will be improving his post arsenal and begin using his face-up shot over the next 2-3 seasons.

The guy has: A rolling hook, turn-around jumper, rip-through, face-up jumper, fall-away, up-and-under, in his post arsenal - I could put a highlight reel together to show you all these shots but everyone has seen them.

If Powe jacked up multiple shots in 5 minutes of PT like Davis tends to do he'd probably stand out more - though every time he plays 25+ minutes he averages about 16/9...

Davis has been playing much more consistently over the past couple of weeks, but he is still far from being a reliable face-up shooter, has no post game, and makes a lot of poor reads on plays.

Powe hold onto the ball too long in the post and is over-relying on his primary post move - the rip-through - but this is not uncommon for developing post players...as he continues to work with Cliff Ray and hang around KG and Perk, he'll continue to learn how to set up his moves and mix his tricks.

I don't know how so many on this forum could have completely whiffed about Kendrick Perkins being "finished" developing 2 seasons ago only to watch him continue to develop and then have the audacity to watch a player who is more skilled offensively and equally as hard-working and not expect the same - ESPECIALLY since we've all seen more out of Powe with our own eyes...

As he ages, his game will increase in consistency - right now he is a victim of heavy minutes with a lack of playmaking PG and floor spacing center, (Davis fools no one with that J.)

When Powe plays with the starters he shines because he gets a ton of baskets on cuts and pick-and-roll, ala Paul Millsap...I think there is a lot of selective memory here and a great deal of over-reliance on short-term recollection...

[BillfromBoston]

I don't see potential in Glen Davis if he doesn't drop the weight. He'll remain what he is and that's a fourth big man in a rotation. Where's the improvement going to come from?

Davis is already a very good defensive player, his size limits his upside to improve there. Davis is a poor scorer, and since he'll be both slower+smaller+lacks jumping ability he'll likely continue to struggle in creating his own offense. The amount of increased pressure those physical issues, it'll make him need to improve his offensive game to a far greater height than one would ordinarily need to. He can improve his jumper and get that to a good place, but that's not going to make him jump up the depth charts unless he becomes a great jump shooter instead of a good one. His rebounding is below par, now if he can improve that he would jump up the depth charts.

But more importantly, if he can improve with the type of body he has today, where has that improvement been over the first 20 months of his NBA career?

I think Glen Davis has good potential if he drops the weight and transforms his game.

The player I'd love to see Davis try to emulate is David West. Another player who has an impressive BBIQ, a multitude of skills, and a guy who took a long road to improving his game and made improvements each year for about 5-6 seasons before becoming the player he is today. He's also got the type of body at power forward that I'd like to see Davis have.

I think Davis' natural agility/quickness could become very good weapons for him if he lost a lot of weight. I think he'd still retain his strength, and more importantly his willingness to play physical, and be a tough matchup problem for most power forwards in the league. I think it'll open up his offensive game for him.

Meanwhile, Leon Powe is already a very efficient and prolific complementary scorer. He's improved his post game consistently over the past 18 months. Powe is also a very good rebounder and a good defensive player. He's a very good role player who impacts the game in the three major areas in each night (offense/defense/rebounding), which Davis does not do (only defense consistently).

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

The last point here is very important - looking at a players USAGE in a team scheme is extremely important when it comes to evaluating how much "upside" they have left and the rate of development that player will progress at.

Powe is being exclusively asked to attack the basket and hit the glass - he's discouraged from shooting his face-up shot, as he did decently last season. The lack of touches he gets is also extremely difficult when it comes to getting into rhythm. getting 4 shots a game spaced out over 3-4 rotation shifts doesn't allow for much of a comfort level.

The fact that Powe has only recently begun getting run with multiple starters has further limited his impact consistency - last season he almost always played with 2 or more starters...this season the lack of PG and C on the 2nd unit have completely altered the amount of pick-and-roll and basket cut ops...because of this, Powe has seen a 300% spike in his post touches while his off-ball looks have dropped off the charts...

As the season wears on and the team adds a true center, we will see Powe's numbers begin to go back to where they were last season...I'd bet good money that if either player stays, it will be Leon, not Davis - because Powe already IS a quality backup PF, while Davis is much more of a C at this point...and less productive in all facets of the game...

[BillfromBoston]

BBD has good potential if he loses the weight. Don't see much upside there otherwise.

Powe has more ability and upside if BBD doesn't lose the weight.

What's Powe's upside?  BBD's upside is a guy who can stick the jumper, rebound, play very good defense and be versatile enough to play backup center.  I don't see Powe's potential beyond being a good low post scorer, because he hasn't shown anything else.

Any reason you're listing rebounding as a skill for BBD and not for Powe, despite Powe outrebounding him?  Powe outrebounds his opponents consistently (+2.2/48 minutes), while BBD gets outrebounded by his (-1.6/48 minutes).

That's one of the crappiest stats I've ever seen. Though Powe being a good rebounder is true, but judging a good rebounder based on outrebounding their counterpart opponent is complete crap, especially when you consider that the bulk of Davis opponents are centers.

BBD gets outrebounded by Powe, and consistently loses rebounding matchups to his opponents.  Powe has grabbed a higher percentage of available rebounds than Davis, both on offense and defense.  Whatever statistical metric you want to look at -- as well as observation -- Powe is clearly a better rebounder than BBD.

Also, why is considering whether a player *consistently* gets outrebounded by his opponent "complete crap" in evaluating a good rebounder?  Isn't part of rebounding keeping the man you're guarding off the boards?  It would be more helpful, of course, if the stat was broken out into offensive and defensive rebounds, but since the Celtics generally shoot a higher percentage than their opponent, the stat (if skewed) should be in BBD's favor, not against him.

And I wasn't disputing that Powe is a better rebounder, I believe he is, but I question the motive behind using such a flawed stat when it really paints Davis in a bad light as far as rebounding goes.

The reason I think it's complete crap is because it lacks consideration for many factors. The stat, as currently presented, is akin to me saying that you're faster than me because you've beaten your opponent in all the sprints while I have lost to mine. But what gets lost is that you're running against the little girl in the corner of your block, while I'm running against Carl Lewis. You're holding against Davis the fact that he's rebounding against the likes of Howard and Battie, while applauding Powe for outrebounding Rashard Lewis (if that's the case at all, and I'm aware that this is simply a minute sample).

Plus those stats try to present rebounding as if it were a one on one matchup, when it isn't. You're trying to grab the rebound against 5 opponents and 4 other players from your team. A rebound for your team is a net positive for you because usually it's the whole team boxing out, etc. that works together to grab the rebound. So wether or not Davis is the one that actually grabs the rebound should be incosequential. It's also true that there are numerous times in which Davis doesn't grab the rebound but he's the one the made the effort to keep the ball alive, my observation tells me that with Powe he's a better rebound grabber with his long hands.

I also doubt the stat tracks the person you're actually rebounding against on the floor. If there was a switch, and Powe ends up guarding and rebounding "against" Howard and Howard grabs the rebound I'm pretty sure it'll count against Davis. It works both ways, but for those types of reasons the stat is pure crap because the data gathered is crap. The most important aspect of any stats is the sample. How it was gathered and the sample size, if those are flawed the stat is flawed just like any conclusion drawn in an argument with false premises.

You want to make the case for Powe being a good rebounder? Go ahead, but use relevant stats as it pertains Powe instead of bringing these types of comparisons with faulty data and information. I agreed with your assesment and support you calling the poster out for ommiting Powe's rebounding skill, I just really disagree on how you went about it.

Budweiser, your logic is sound, but you are overthinking this...most everything you posted above evens out over the course of the season with all the minutes each player receives...nobody really rebounds against their position, you rebound against everybody - playing at center doesn't mean you are in a man-to-man battle with that guy for the board - rebounding usually involves challenging both frontcourt players and very little of it is matchup oriented.

[BillfromBoston]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

I respect you a great deal Chris, but you are not taking in factors that are effective both of these players.

When you play a restricted role as both Davis and Powe do, you aren't allowed to explore facets of your game that other players with larger roles are.

Also, playing minutes with less talented players, as both Powe and Davis have had to with the 2nd unit, limits some of the things each can do.

I think Powe's 7pts/4rbs in 14 minutes of play is pretty good - especially considering he gets 4 shots a game and may touch the ball on the block about 6-7 times in 3-4 rotation stints on the court - he's not encouraged to shoot the ball, even though he can, and he doesn't get very many easy baskets because nobody on his unit can dribble penetrate or run the pick-and-roll effectively - add to it the fact that Davis' faceup game doesn't force defenders to commit to him and you have a serious limitation that doesn't have to do with Powe himself.

Now Powe bears some responsibility as well - this isn't a blame game - he holds the ball too long on the block, which is a DIRECT effect of Doc and the staff telling him to work on his reads. He is dealing with more double-teams than he ever has, which is why the team stopped feeding him the rock on the 2nd unit after the first 3 weeks of the season - he was getting doubled on a majority of his posessions at that point.

You're seeing a player who is getting very few easy baskets because of lineups, has no rhythm because of limited touches, and is restricted by his role designation.

I don't think teams have "figured out" anything about Powe. He's being defended the same way he was last year. The difference is his usage. no pick-and-roll, no basket cuts, out-of-rhythm post game with very limited touches.

As Powe continues to work, he'll incorporate his face-up and as his role increases he will mix his post moves up more frequently. --- we've already seen more of his arsenal than he's show, its just a matter of being able to test it out with more regularity - which is not his role right now with this team...

Doc is already mixing up the rotation and Powe has seen an increase in productivity as he's gotten more minutes with Rondo and KG...this trend will continue...

[BudweiserCeltic]

BBD has good potential if he loses the weight. Don't see much upside there otherwise.

Powe has more ability and upside if BBD doesn't lose the weight.

What's Powe's upside?  BBD's upside is a guy who can stick the jumper, rebound, play very good defense and be versatile enough to play backup center.  I don't see Powe's potential beyond being a good low post scorer, because he hasn't shown anything else.

Any reason you're listing rebounding as a skill for BBD and not for Powe, despite Powe outrebounding him?  Powe outrebounds his opponents consistently (+2.2/48 minutes), while BBD gets outrebounded by his (-1.6/48 minutes).

That's one of the crappiest stats I've ever seen. Though Powe being a good rebounder is true, but judging a good rebounder based on outrebounding their counterpart opponent is complete crap, especially when you consider that the bulk of Davis opponents are centers.

BBD gets outrebounded by Powe, and consistently loses rebounding matchups to his opponents.  Powe has grabbed a higher percentage of available rebounds than Davis, both on offense and defense.  Whatever statistical metric you want to look at -- as well as observation -- Powe is clearly a better rebounder than BBD.

Also, why is considering whether a player *consistently* gets outrebounded by his opponent "complete crap" in evaluating a good rebounder?  Isn't part of rebounding keeping the man you're guarding off the boards?  It would be more helpful, of course, if the stat was broken out into offensive and defensive rebounds, but since the Celtics generally shoot a higher percentage than their opponent, the stat (if skewed) should be in BBD's favor, not against him.

And I wasn't disputing that Powe is a better rebounder, I believe he is, but I question the motive behind using such a flawed stat when it really paints Davis in a bad light as far as rebounding goes.

The reason I think it's complete crap is because it lacks consideration for many factors. The stat, as currently presented, is akin to me saying that you're faster than me because you've beaten your opponent in all the sprints while I have lost to mine. But what gets lost is that you're running against the little girl in the corner of your block, while I'm running against Carl Lewis. You're holding against Davis the fact that he's rebounding against the likes of Howard and Battie, while applauding Powe for outrebounding Rashard Lewis (if that's the case at all, and I'm aware that this is simply a minute sample).

Plus those stats try to present rebounding as if it were a one on one matchup, when it isn't. You're trying to grab the rebound against 5 opponents and 4 other players from your team. A rebound for your team is a net positive for you because usually it's the whole team boxing out, etc. that works together to grab the rebound. So wether or not Davis is the one that actually grabs the rebound should be incosequential. It's also true that there are numerous times in which Davis doesn't grab the rebound but he's the one the made the effort to keep the ball alive, my observation tells me that with Powe he's a better rebound grabber with his long hands.

I also doubt the stat tracks the person you're actually rebounding against on the floor. If there was a switch, and Powe ends up guarding and rebounding "against" Howard and Howard grabs the rebound I'm pretty sure it'll count against Davis. It works both ways, but for those types of reasons the stat is pure crap because the data gathered is crap. The most important aspect of any stats is the sample. How it was gathered and the sample size, if those are flawed the stat is flawed just like any conclusion drawn in an argument with false premises.

You want to make the case for Powe being a good rebounder? Go ahead, but use relevant stats as it pertains Powe instead of bringing these types of comparisons with faulty data and information. I agreed with your assesment and support you calling the poster out for ommiting Powe's rebounding skill, I just really disagree on how you went about it.

Budweiser, your logic is sound, but you are overthinking this...most everything you posted above evens out over the course of the season with all the minutes each player receives...nobody really rebounds against their position, you rebound against everybody - playing at center doesn't mean you are in a man-to-man battle with that guy for the board - rebounding usually involves challenging both frontcourt players and very little of it is matchup oriented.

Erm, you're actually supporting my point of view. That's precisely why the stat that Roy provided was a bad one to use.

[crownsy]

BBD has good potential if he loses the weight. Don't see much upside there otherwise.

Powe has more ability and upside if BBD doesn't lose the weight.

What's Powe's upside?  BBD's upside is a guy who can stick the jumper, rebound, play very good defense and be versatile enough to play backup center.  I don't see Powe's potential beyond being a good low post scorer, because he hasn't shown anything else.

Any reason you're listing rebounding as a skill for BBD and not for Powe, despite Powe outrebounding him?  Powe outrebounds his opponents consistently (+2.2/48 minutes), while BBD gets outrebounded by his (-1.6/48 minutes).

That's one of the crappiest stats I've ever seen. Though Powe being a good rebounder is true, but judging a good rebounder based on outrebounding their counterpart opponent is complete crap, especially when you consider that the bulk of Davis opponents are centers.

BBD gets outrebounded by Powe, and consistently loses rebounding matchups to his opponents.  Powe has grabbed a higher percentage of available rebounds than Davis, both on offense and defense.  Whatever statistical metric you want to look at -- as well as observation -- Powe is clearly a better rebounder than BBD.

Also, why is considering whether a player *consistently* gets outrebounded by his opponent "complete crap" in evaluating a good rebounder?  Isn't part of rebounding keeping the man you're guarding off the boards?  It would be more helpful, of course, if the stat was broken out into offensive and defensive rebounds, but since the Celtics generally shoot a higher percentage than their opponent, the stat (if skewed) should be in BBD's favor, not against him.

And I wasn't disputing that Powe is a better rebounder, I believe he is, but I question the motive behind using such a flawed stat when it really paints Davis in a bad light as far as rebounding goes.

The reason I think it's complete crap is because it lacks consideration for many factors. The stat, as currently presented, is akin to me saying that you're faster than me because you've beaten your opponent in all the sprints while I have lost to mine. But what gets lost is that you're running against the little girl in the corner of your block, while I'm running against Carl Lewis. You're holding against Davis the fact that he's rebounding against the likes of Howard and Battie, while applauding Powe for outrebounding Rashard Lewis (if that's the case at all, and I'm aware that this is simply a minute sample).

Plus those stats try to present rebounding as if it were a one on one matchup, when it isn't. You're trying to grab the rebound against 5 opponents and 4 other players from your team. A rebound for your team is a net positive for you because usually it's the whole team boxing out, etc. that works together to grab the rebound. So wether or not Davis is the one that actually grabs the rebound should be incosequential. It's also true that there are numerous times in which Davis doesn't grab the rebound but he's the one the made the effort to keep the ball alive, my observation tells me that with Powe he's a better rebound grabber with his long hands.

I also doubt the stat tracks the person you're actually rebounding against on the floor. If there was a switch, and Powe ends up guarding and rebounding "against" Howard and Howard grabs the rebound I'm pretty sure it'll count against Davis. It works both ways, but for those types of reasons the stat is pure crap because the data gathered is crap. The most important aspect of any stats is the sample. How it was gathered and the sample size, if those are flawed the stat is flawed just like any conclusion drawn in an argument with false premises.

You want to make the case for Powe being a good rebounder? Go ahead, but use relevant stats as it pertains Powe instead of bringing these types of comparisons with faulty data and information. I agreed with your assesment and support you calling the poster out for ommiting Powe's rebounding skill, I just really disagree on how you went about it.

Budweiser, your logic is sound, but you are overthinking this...most everything you posted above evens out over the course of the season with all the minutes each player receives...nobody really rebounds against their position, you rebound against everybody - playing at center doesn't mean you are in a man-to-man battle with that guy for the board - rebounding usually involves challenging both frontcourt players and very little of it is matchup oriented.

Erm, you're actually supporting my point of view. That's precisely why the stat that Roy provided was a bad one to use.

how so?

your entire objection to roy's use of that stat is that it isn't fair to davis because it would skew the stats to powe since he "matches up" against centers while powe gets to matchup against inferior rebounds.

Bill actually makes a really good point about the numbers, and it doesn't really support your inital criticizm of the numbers at all.

[BudweiserCeltic]

BBD has good potential if he loses the weight. Don't see much upside there otherwise.

Powe has more ability and upside if BBD doesn't lose the weight.

What's Powe's upside?  BBD's upside is a guy who can stick the jumper, rebound, play very good defense and be versatile enough to play backup center.  I don't see Powe's potential beyond being a good low post scorer, because he hasn't shown anything else.

Any reason you're listing rebounding as a skill for BBD and not for Powe, despite Powe outrebounding him?  Powe outrebounds his opponents consistently (+2.2/48 minutes), while BBD gets outrebounded by his (-1.6/48 minutes).

That's one of the crappiest stats I've ever seen. Though Powe being a good rebounder is true, but judging a good rebounder based on outrebounding their counterpart opponent is complete crap, especially when you consider that the bulk of Davis opponents are centers.

BBD gets outrebounded by Powe, and consistently loses rebounding matchups to his opponents.  Powe has grabbed a higher percentage of available rebounds than Davis, both on offense and defense.  Whatever statistical metric you want to look at -- as well as observation -- Powe is clearly a better rebounder than BBD.

Also, why is considering whether a player *consistently* gets outrebounded by his opponent "complete crap" in evaluating a good rebounder?  Isn't part of rebounding keeping the man you're guarding off the boards?  It would be more helpful, of course, if the stat was broken out into offensive and defensive rebounds, but since the Celtics generally shoot a higher percentage than their opponent, the stat (if skewed) should be in BBD's favor, not against him.

And I wasn't disputing that Powe is a better rebounder, I believe he is, but I question the motive behind using such a flawed stat when it really paints Davis in a bad light as far as rebounding goes.

The reason I think it's complete crap is because it lacks consideration for many factors. The stat, as currently presented, is akin to me saying that you're faster than me because you've beaten your opponent in all the sprints while I have lost to mine. But what gets lost is that you're running against the little girl in the corner of your block, while I'm running against Carl Lewis. You're holding against Davis the fact that he's rebounding against the likes of Howard and Battie, while applauding Powe for outrebounding Rashard Lewis (if that's the case at all, and I'm aware that this is simply a minute sample).

Plus those stats try to present rebounding as if it were a one on one matchup, when it isn't. You're trying to grab the rebound against 5 opponents and 4 other players from your team. A rebound for your team is a net positive for you because usually it's the whole team boxing out, etc. that works together to grab the rebound. So wether or not Davis is the one that actually grabs the rebound should be incosequential. It's also true that there are numerous times in which Davis doesn't grab the rebound but he's the one the made the effort to keep the ball alive, my observation tells me that with Powe he's a better rebound grabber with his long hands.

I also doubt the stat tracks the person you're actually rebounding against on the floor. If there was a switch, and Powe ends up guarding and rebounding "against" Howard and Howard grabs the rebound I'm pretty sure it'll count against Davis. It works both ways, but for those types of reasons the stat is pure crap because the data gathered is crap. The most important aspect of any stats is the sample. How it was gathered and the sample size, if those are flawed the stat is flawed just like any conclusion drawn in an argument with false premises.

You want to make the case for Powe being a good rebounder? Go ahead, but use relevant stats as it pertains Powe instead of bringing these types of comparisons with faulty data and information. I agreed with your assesment and support you calling the poster out for ommiting Powe's rebounding skill, I just really disagree on how you went about it.

Budweiser, your logic is sound, but you are overthinking this...most everything you posted above evens out over the course of the season with all the minutes each player receives...nobody really rebounds against their position, you rebound against everybody - playing at center doesn't mean you are in a man-to-man battle with that guy for the board - rebounding usually involves challenging both frontcourt players and very little of it is matchup oriented.

Erm, you're actually supporting my point of view. That's precisely why the stat that Roy provided was a bad one to use.

how so?

your entire objection to roy's use of that stat is that it isn't fair to davis because it would skew the stats to powe since he "matches up" against centers while powe gets to matchup against inferior rebounds.

Bill actually makes a really good point about the numbers, and it doesn't really support your inital criticizm of the numbers at all.

Because the stat is not representing what is going on the floor, and that's pretty much what Bill is saying. Regardless of Powe being a better rebounder than Davis, that Powe outrebounds PF's and Davis doesn't outrebound C's (according to the stat) doesn't mean that Powe is a better rebounder. But Powe is a better rebounder, but it isn't because this stat reflects it as such. Pretty much the most you really can conclude from such a stat is how good of a rebounder is a certain player in that position, as compared to other players playing that position (and it still will have it's flaws).

Just a random example, Rondo's +/- against the opponent in rebounds it's better than Foster's. Are we to belief that Rondo is a better rebounder than Foster? Rondo is an excellent rebounder, but does it really mean that he rebounds the ball better than Foster? That's why the stats are flawed.

[Roy Hobbs]

Just a random example, Rondo's +/- against the opponent in rebounds it's better than Foster's. Are we to belief that Rondo is a better rebounder than Foster? Rondo is an excellent rebounder, but does it really mean that he rebounds the ball better than Foster? That's why the stats are flawed.

It suggests he's a better rebounder relative to his opponents than Foster is.