Jaylen Traded to PHI for PG, 2 First Round Picks & 2 Second Round Picks

[DefenseWinsChamps]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rlgK-BRu3NE

[DefenseWinsChamps]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rlgK-BRu3NE

[Phantom255x]

I know they'll probably have PR answers rehearsed, but I really hope these reporters grill Bill Chisolm especially. This is the textbook Red Sox playbook, and even similar to the Mavericks playbook with how it's gone since Mark Cuban sold the team (similar to Wyc refusing to sell to Pags and selling to Chisolm + private equity).

[Vermont Green]

I want to start this analysis by saying I think Brown is a better player than Paul George and I do not think the team is better for this trade.  But Paul George did have more of a positive impact on his teammates than Brown.  On PHI last season, Embiid had the biggest +/- impact of all their players.  Not a big surprise.  And Embiid is the only one that had a lower +/- per36 with George over without George.  All the other main rotation players were better, a few quite a bit better, when playing with Paul George.

I don't know what this means.  I did not see enough PHI games to have eye test data to go along with this.  What I saw in the playoff series vs. BOS, Paul George played very well.  He made some big shots, but not as the #1 scoring option.

I think there is where BOS will miss Brown.  Paul George on the floor with Tatum should be a productive, efficient combination.  But when Tatum sits, BOS won't have Brown to take over the lead scoring option role.  I don't think George can be that either at this point in his career.  It will be interesting to see how this looks when Tatum rests now that Brown is gone.

[Roy H.]

I want to start this analysis by saying I think Brown is a better player than Paul George and I do not think the team is better for this trade.  But Paul George did have more of a positive impact on his teammates than Brown.  On PHI last season, Embiid had the biggest +/- impact of all their players.  Not a big surprise.  And Embiid is the only one that had a lower +/- per36 with George over without George.  All the other main rotation players were better, a few quite a bit better, when playing with Paul George.

I don't know what this means.  I did not see enough PHI games to have eye test data to go along with this.  What I saw in the playoff series vs. BOS, Paul George played very well.  He made some big shots, but not as the #1 scoring option.

I think there is where BOS will miss Brown.  Paul George on the floor with Tatum should be a productive, efficient combination.  But when Tatum sits, BOS won't have Brown to take over the lead scoring option role.  I don't think George can be that either at this point in his career.  It will be interesting to see how this looks when Tatum rests now that Brown is gone.

The fact that he misses about 40% of his games needs to be factored in as well, no?  It's hard to positively impact your teammates when you were sitting on the bench, or are not in the arena at all..

Jaylen won games.  In fact, he won more games last year than Paul George played.

[Celtics2021]

I want to start this analysis by saying I think Brown is a better player than Paul George and I do not think the team is better for this trade.  But Paul George did have more of a positive impact on his teammates than Brown.  On PHI last season, Embiid had the biggest +/- impact of all their players.  Not a big surprise.  And Embiid is the only one that had a lower +/- per36 with George over without George.  All the other main rotation players were better, a few quite a bit better, when playing with Paul George.

I don't know what this means.  I did not see enough PHI games to have eye test data to go along with this.  What I saw in the playoff series vs. BOS, Paul George played very well.  He made some big shots, but not as the #1 scoring option.

I think there is where BOS will miss Brown.  Paul George on the floor with Tatum should be a productive, efficient combination.  But when Tatum sits, BOS won't have Brown to take over the lead scoring option role.  I don't think George can be that either at this point in his career.  It will be interesting to see how this looks when Tatum rests now that Brown is gone.

The fact that he misses about 40% of his games needs to be factored in as well, no?  It's hard to positively impact your teammates when you were sitting on the bench, or are not in the arena at all..

Jaylen won games.  In fact, he won more games last year than Paul George played.

If we care more about the postseason than the regular season (and I thought we did hence all the criticism of JB for his favorite season comments) then it is fair to note that he played in all 11 Sixer playoff games and averaged 36 minutes a night. 

[Vermont Green]

I do not know how many games Paul George will play. Likely less than Brown will play.  That is part of my rationale for saying the team is not better for this trade. Even if both play a full season, Brown is better.  I am not sure what you are disagreeing with.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

As near as I can tell, there are three possibilities:

1. Brad Stevens made an idiotic trade. The problem with this idea is that, in my opinion. Stevens is one of the best basketball minds in the world, and has consistently made moves (whether or active moves, or deciding to stand pat) that positioned the Celtics to compete for championships.

For me, his track record earned a lot of trust from me, even in the face of this shocking trade.

2. Stevens genuinely believes that George is a player that can help us win a championship better than Brown. Whether that is because of Brown's attitude, or his +- stats, or George's team defense, or George's playmaking and shooting, or whatever.

In this possibility, Stevens essentially sees George as a forward version of Derrick White. A "really good basketball player" to use his terminology. He thinks George will contribute more to winning over this next short window (2 years until George's contract runs out), and then they will reset their window again with a different roster construction.

3. There was a team out there that Stevens has been negotiating with, but that team was  meh on Brown, and they definitely did not want the third year of his contract, because they were building their team around other players.

In this possibility, Stevens is continuing to negotiate a trade package around George's shorter contract and draft compensation for the player(s) he really wants that, in his opinion, will help them win more than Brown would have.

Personally, I think that most likely team is the Pelicans, who have Poole's contract expiring next off-season, and then Zion's and Murray's the year after that. In this theory, they didn't want Brown's 65m on the books 3 years from now in his final year when they are trying to rebuild around Queen, Fears, and the guys they draft over the next few years (they have the Bucks 2027 first round pick). I also thinks its likely they trade Zion and, if possible, Murray for picks.

[Roy H.]

I want to start this analysis by saying I think Brown is a better player than Paul George and I do not think the team is better for this trade.  But Paul George did have more of a positive impact on his teammates than Brown.  On PHI last season, Embiid had the biggest +/- impact of all their players.  Not a big surprise.  And Embiid is the only one that had a lower +/- per36 with George over without George.  All the other main rotation players were better, a few quite a bit better, when playing with Paul George.

I don't know what this means.  I did not see enough PHI games to have eye test data to go along with this.  What I saw in the playoff series vs. BOS, Paul George played very well.  He made some big shots, but not as the #1 scoring option.

I think there is where BOS will miss Brown.  Paul George on the floor with Tatum should be a productive, efficient combination.  But when Tatum sits, BOS won't have Brown to take over the lead scoring option role.  I don't think George can be that either at this point in his career.  It will be interesting to see how this looks when Tatum rests now that Brown is gone.

The fact that he misses about 40% of his games needs to be factored in as well, no?  It's hard to positively impact your teammates when you were sitting on the bench, or are not in the arena at all..

Jaylen won games.  In fact, he won more games last year than Paul George played.

If we care more about the postseason than the regular season (and I thought we did hence all the criticism of JB for his favorite season comments) then it is fair to note that he played in all 11 Sixer playoff games and averaged 36 minutes a night.

Is there a reason to expect that he'll repeat that going forward? 

Games played last seven seasons:  48, 54, 31, 56, 74 , 41, 37

[keevsnick]

I want to start this analysis by saying I think Brown is a better player than Paul George and I do not think the team is better for this trade.  But Paul George did have more of a positive impact on his teammates than Brown.  On PHI last season, Embiid had the biggest +/- impact of all their players.  Not a big surprise.  And Embiid is the only one that had a lower +/- per36 with George over without George.  All the other main rotation players were better, a few quite a bit better, when playing with Paul George.

I don't know what this means.  I did not see enough PHI games to have eye test data to go along with this.  What I saw in the playoff series vs. BOS, Paul George played very well.  He made some big shots, but not as the #1 scoring option.

I think there is where BOS will miss Brown.  Paul George on the floor with Tatum should be a productive, efficient combination.  But when Tatum sits, BOS won't have Brown to take over the lead scoring option role.  I don't think George can be that either at this point in his career.  It will be interesting to see how this looks when Tatum rests now that Brown is gone.

The fact that he misses about 40% of his games needs to be factored in as well, no?  It's hard to positively impact your teammates when you were sitting on the bench, or are not in the arena at all..

Jaylen won games.  In fact, he won more games last year than Paul George played.

If we care more about the postseason than the regular season (and I thought we did hence all the criticism of JB for his favorite season comments) then it is fair to note that he played in all 11 Sixer playoff games and averaged 36 minutes a night.

Is there a reason to expect that he'll repeat that going forward? 

Games played last seven seasons:  48, 54, 31, 56, 74 , 41, 37

Honestly I think anything PG gives the Celtics as a player next year is a bonus. The primary reason he's in this trade is as a giant salary place holder.

The Celtics knew that they were going to be below the tax next year and that they weren't really going to be competing for the title, so they turned JB into some assets and a giant expiring contract that they can flip in summer 2027 rather than risk an injury or decline in play that would have made him unmovable.

If PG finishes his contract on the Celtics it will be essentially a disaster. The idea is to turn him into A) Another star that fits better next to Tatum or B) Multiple high level role players in the summer of 2027.