2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[Kernewek]

How the heck did the GSWs lose to an epically decimated Grizzlies team?

Disappointing that we gave up a likely top 10 pick in the Jrue trade. I really want GSW to figure it out and make the playoffs so the pick is a lot worse

I’m not too worried about the pick, myself.  We’re a better team this year with Jrue than we would have been with Brogdan and that pick, and Portland presumably factored in Golden State’s potential for collapse into the value of that pick.  It’s Memphis who really should be kicking themselves for including that pick in the Smart deal.

It could sting a little more if Jrue walks, but I’m betting he signs an extension before too long.

He's 33 - do we really want to sign him to a significant extension if we don't go all the way this season?

Yes, we do.  There’s obviously a dollar amount that would make it problematic, but he’s pretty much the same player he’s been the past couple of years, only with the ball a bit less because we have so many players to give the ball to.  It’s not like he’s suffering from a major decline at this point, and he’s been generally healthy.  My hope is we’ll have a 3-year extension for $90-105 million.

How many point guards taking up that approximate percentage of the cap have been serious contributors to a championship-calibre team?  It's an honest question, I really don't know.

[Celtics2021]

How the heck did the GSWs lose to an epically decimated Grizzlies team?

Disappointing that we gave up a likely top 10 pick in the Jrue trade. I really want GSW to figure it out and make the playoffs so the pick is a lot worse

I’m not too worried about the pick, myself.  We’re a better team this year with Jrue than we would have been with Brogdan and that pick, and Portland presumably factored in Golden State’s potential for collapse into the value of that pick.  It’s Memphis who really should be kicking themselves for including that pick in the Smart deal.

It could sting a little more if Jrue walks, but I’m betting he signs an extension before too long.

He's 33 - do we really want to sign him to a significant extension if we don't go all the way this season?

Yes, we do.  There’s obviously a dollar amount that would make it problematic, but he’s pretty much the same player he’s been the past couple of years, only with the ball a bit less because we have so many players to give the ball to.  It’s not like he’s suffering from a major decline at this point, and he’s been generally healthy.  My hope is we’ll have a 3-year extension for $90-105 million.

How many point guards taking up that approximate percentage of the cap have been serious contributors to a championship-calibre team?  It's an honest question, I really don't know.

I would say it’s not the cap but the percentage of team salary that matters, or maybe with the new CBA the percentage up to the second apron.  But for sure Curry and Holiday himself did the two years before last, and without doing a salary deep dive of the Nuggets I’m betting Jamal Murray did as well.  So it’s certainly not something that per se inhibits a championship run.

[Moranis]

How the heck did the GSWs lose to an epically decimated Grizzlies team?

Disappointing that we gave up a likely top 10 pick in the Jrue trade. I really want GSW to figure it out and make the playoffs so the pick is a lot worse

I’m not too worried about the pick, myself.  We’re a better team this year with Jrue than we would have been with Brogdan and that pick, and Portland presumably factored in Golden State’s potential for collapse into the value of that pick.  It’s Memphis who really should be kicking themselves for including that pick in the Smart deal.

It could sting a little more if Jrue walks, but I’m betting he signs an extension before too long.

He's 33 - do we really want to sign him to a significant extension if we don't go all the way this season?

Yes, we do.  There’s obviously a dollar amount that would make it problematic, but he’s pretty much the same player he’s been the past couple of years, only with the ball a bit less because we have so many players to give the ball to.  It’s not like he’s suffering from a major decline at this point, and he’s been generally healthy.  My hope is we’ll have a 3-year extension for $90-105 million.

How many point guards taking up that approximate percentage of the cap have been serious contributors to a championship-calibre team?  It's an honest question, I really don't know.

I would say it’s not the cap but the percentage of team salary that matters, or maybe with the new CBA the percentage up to the second apron.  But for sure Curry and Holiday himself did the two years before last, and without doing a salary deep dive of the Nuggets I’m betting Jamal Murray did as well.  So it’s certainly not something that per se inhibits a championship run.

the bigger issue is not the money but the role.  He is at best the 3rd player on this team, and more likely 4th or 5th (especially going forward).  Boston simply can't sign him for 30+ million and pay Tatum and Brown supermax plus give White the extension he deserves while having  Zinger make good money. It is too much money for the role.  He needs to be re-signed at more like 20 million a year for three money to really work out ok.

[keevsnick]

Boston is going to want to be below the 2nd apron next year. If they bring back their rotation guys and fill out the roster with vet mins I think they can afford to give holiday something like 27 million in the first year and still stay below the 2nd apron. If they dump Horford or Pricthard they can go higher, but obviously that hurts your depth.

[Moranis]

This money thing is also why I think they should go all in this year.  Go over the apron, se the TPE, spend whatever it takes, they need to win this year because the money is going to be a real problem, real fast.

[Celtics2021]

How the heck did the GSWs lose to an epically decimated Grizzlies team?

Disappointing that we gave up a likely top 10 pick in the Jrue trade. I really want GSW to figure it out and make the playoffs so the pick is a lot worse

I’m not too worried about the pick, myself.  We’re a better team this year with Jrue than we would have been with Brogdan and that pick, and Portland presumably factored in Golden State’s potential for collapse into the value of that pick.  It’s Memphis who really should be kicking themselves for including that pick in the Smart deal.

It could sting a little more if Jrue walks, but I’m betting he signs an extension before too long.

He's 33 - do we really want to sign him to a significant extension if we don't go all the way this season?

Yes, we do.  There’s obviously a dollar amount that would make it problematic, but he’s pretty much the same player he’s been the past couple of years, only with the ball a bit less because we have so many players to give the ball to.  It’s not like he’s suffering from a major decline at this point, and he’s been generally healthy.  My hope is we’ll have a 3-year extension for $90-105 million.

How many point guards taking up that approximate percentage of the cap have been serious contributors to a championship-calibre team?  It's an honest question, I really don't know.

I would say it’s not the cap but the percentage of team salary that matters, or maybe with the new CBA the percentage up to the second apron.  But for sure Curry and Holiday himself did the two years before last, and without doing a salary deep dive of the Nuggets I’m betting Jamal Murray did as well.  So it’s certainly not something that per se inhibits a championship run.

the bigger issue is not the money but the role.  He is at best the 3rd player on this team, and more likely 4th or 5th (especially going forward).  Boston simply can't sign him for 30+ million and pay Tatum and Brown supermax plus give White the extension he deserves while having  Zinger make good money. It is too much money for the role.  He needs to be re-signed at more like 20 million a year for three money to really work out ok.

No he doesn’t.  It doesn’t matter if he’s overqualified for his role or overpaid for it, as long as the marginal quality he brings is better than what someone else would bring at whatever budget the Celtics set themselves at.  When you’re trying to win a title, having Jrue Holiday as your 3rd, 4th, or 5th best player paid at that similar level on your books is an asset.  It’s far more important to spend $10-15 million extra to upgrade a starter level roster spot to borderline All-Star than it is to upgrade a minimum-salary 9th spot to a Kelly Olynyk/Grant Williams/Duncan Robinson type as has been suggested the past couple of seasons.

[Celtics2021]

Boston is going to want to be below the 2nd apron next year. If they bring back their rotation guys and fill out the roster with vet mins I think they can afford to give holiday something like 27 million in the first year and still stay below the 2nd apron. If they dump Horford or Pricthard they can go higher, but obviously that hurts your depth.

I imagine they’ll wind up below the second apron this year and above it next year (it’s really easy to get under — they should be able to do so by dumping only one of Banton, Stevens, or Svi at the deadline).  A perfect Jrue extension would be a little front-loaded so that they’re above the second apron next year but decrease in value when Tatum’s extension kicks in so they aren’t over the second apron in consecutive years.

[Moranis]

How the heck did the GSWs lose to an epically decimated Grizzlies team?

Disappointing that we gave up a likely top 10 pick in the Jrue trade. I really want GSW to figure it out and make the playoffs so the pick is a lot worse

I’m not too worried about the pick, myself.  We’re a better team this year with Jrue than we would have been with Brogdan and that pick, and Portland presumably factored in Golden State’s potential for collapse into the value of that pick.  It’s Memphis who really should be kicking themselves for including that pick in the Smart deal.

It could sting a little more if Jrue walks, but I’m betting he signs an extension before too long.

He's 33 - do we really want to sign him to a significant extension if we don't go all the way this season?

Yes, we do.  There’s obviously a dollar amount that would make it problematic, but he’s pretty much the same player he’s been the past couple of years, only with the ball a bit less because we have so many players to give the ball to.  It’s not like he’s suffering from a major decline at this point, and he’s been generally healthy.  My hope is we’ll have a 3-year extension for $90-105 million.

How many point guards taking up that approximate percentage of the cap have been serious contributors to a championship-calibre team?  It's an honest question, I really don't know.

I would say it’s not the cap but the percentage of team salary that matters, or maybe with the new CBA the percentage up to the second apron.  But for sure Curry and Holiday himself did the two years before last, and without doing a salary deep dive of the Nuggets I’m betting Jamal Murray did as well.  So it’s certainly not something that per se inhibits a championship run.

the bigger issue is not the money but the role.  He is at best the 3rd player on this team, and more likely 4th or 5th (especially going forward).  Boston simply can't sign him for 30+ million and pay Tatum and Brown supermax plus give White the extension he deserves while having  Zinger make good money. It is too much money for the role.  He needs to be re-signed at more like 20 million a year for three money to really work out ok.

No he doesn’t.  It doesn’t matter if he’s overqualified for his role or overpaid for it, as long as the marginal quality he brings is better than what someone else would bring at whatever budget the Celtics set themselves at.  When you’re trying to win a title, having Jrue Holiday as your 3rd, 4th, or 5th best player paid at that similar level on your books is an asset.  It’s far more important to spend $10-15 million extra to upgrade a starter level roster spot to borderline All-Star than it is to upgrade a minimum-salary 9th spot to a Kelly Olynyk/Grant Williams/Duncan Robinson type as has been suggested the past couple of seasons.

except you can't pay 2 guys over 50 million and 3 other guys over 30 million.  It just can't be sustained.  It is too much money.  Sacrifices have to be made.  Players are going to have to take less or they won't be here.  And Brown is already signed and Tatum is getting the supermax.  That means at least 1 of, I'd not all 3 of, Jrue, Porzingis, and White are going to sacrifice or leave. Jrue, because of his age, makes the most sense of those 3.  Boston cannot have over 200 million in salary tied up on 5 people. It just isn't going to happen.

[keevsnick]

Boston is going to want to be below the 2nd apron next year. If they bring back their rotation guys and fill out the roster with vet mins I think they can afford to give holiday something like 27 million in the first year and still stay below the 2nd apron. If they dump Horford or Pricthard they can go higher, but obviously that hurts your depth.

I imagine they’ll wind up below the second apron this year and above it next year (it’s really easy to get under — they should be able to do so by dumping only one of Banton, Stevens, or Svi at the deadline).  A perfect Jrue extension would be a little front-loaded so that they’re above the second apron next year but decrease in value when Tatum’s extension kicks in so they aren’t over the second apron in consecutive years.

Well this year there's really no penalty for being above the second apron, but starting next year you get your draft pick frozen if you're above the second apron. So my guess is they'll very much want to stay below next year. It doesn't really matter how much jrues salary descends, getting below the 2nd apron once Tatum's extension kicks in (+ Whites new contract) is going to be impossible without trading one of Brown/KP/White/Jrue.

[Celtics2021]

Boston is going to want to be below the 2nd apron next year. If they bring back their rotation guys and fill out the roster with vet mins I think they can afford to give holiday something like 27 million in the first year and still stay below the 2nd apron. If they dump Horford or Pricthard they can go higher, but obviously that hurts your depth.

I imagine they’ll wind up below the second apron this year and above it next year (it’s really easy to get under — they should be able to do so by dumping only one of Banton, Stevens, or Svi at the deadline).  A perfect Jrue extension would be a little front-loaded so that they’re above the second apron next year but decrease in value when Tatum’s extension kicks in so they aren’t over the second apron in consecutive years.

Well this year there's really no penalty for being above the second apron, but starting next year you get your draft pick frozen if you're above the second apron. So my guess is they'll very much want to stay below next year. It doesn't really matter how much jrues salary descends, getting below the 2nd apron once Tatum's extension kicks in (+ Whites new contract) is going to be impossible without trading one of Brown/KP/White/Jrue.

It depends on White, of course, but if he signs an extension (which is limited to around $28 million in year 1 including incentives because of his prior deal) I think theres a plausible number Jrue’s salary could decrease by between year 1 and year 2 of an extension, given the cap/aprons will rise substantially more between years 1&2 (more than they will next year) and that Horford will come off the books, which will help the C’s just sneak under, should they desire.  It would be tight, and probably doesn’t include Pritchard or Hauser, but there’s a needle the C’s can thread where they go over the line next year but drop under the following while keeping the Big 5.

It’s also worth remembering that if a team’s pick freezes due to exceeding the apron that it can unfreeze later if the team subsequently remains below the apron long enough in the future, so they don’t technically have to force it one of the years if ownership is okay with lower profits.  Also, I think the real penalty a team wants to avoid is having the pick kick to the end of the first round, which essentially requires going over the second apron three times in five years.  The Celtics have never more than swapped a pick 7 years out (the White deal), so I don’t think freezing is the penalty they’re most afraid of.

[Kernewek]

How the heck did the GSWs lose to an epically decimated Grizzlies team?

Disappointing that we gave up a likely top 10 pick in the Jrue trade. I really want GSW to figure it out and make the playoffs so the pick is a lot worse

I’m not too worried about the pick, myself.  We’re a better team this year with Jrue than we would have been with Brogdan and that pick, and Portland presumably factored in Golden State’s potential for collapse into the value of that pick.  It’s Memphis who really should be kicking themselves for including that pick in the Smart deal.

It could sting a little more if Jrue walks, but I’m betting he signs an extension before too long.

He's 33 - do we really want to sign him to a significant extension if we don't go all the way this season?

Yes, we do.  There’s obviously a dollar amount that would make it problematic, but he’s pretty much the same player he’s been the past couple of years, only with the ball a bit less because we have so many players to give the ball to.  It’s not like he’s suffering from a major decline at this point, and he’s been generally healthy.  My hope is we’ll have a 3-year extension for $90-105 million.

How many point guards taking up that approximate percentage of the cap have been serious contributors to a championship-calibre team?  It's an honest question, I really don't know.

I would say it’s not the cap but the percentage of team salary that matters, or maybe with the new CBA the percentage up to the second apron.  But for sure Curry and Holiday himself did the two years before last, and without doing a salary deep dive of the Nuggets I’m betting Jamal Murray did as well.  So it’s certainly not something that per se inhibits a championship run.

The percentage of cap and percentage of salary should be equivalent terms, really - if the ownership has issues with paying extra tax or anything of the sort, they should sell the team.

I think Moranis's point is more to how I feel intuitively, though - given a finite amount of money to be spent, I don't know if Holiday is (or should be) particularly high in the pecking order. No idea if that has any bearing in reality, though - I don't know enough about the ins and outs.

But, all numbers via Spotrac - Holiday was 19.4% of the Buck's cap in 2022, and Jamaal Murray was 18.66% of the cap last season (Porter was 18.23).

For completion: if he opts in on his player option next season (for $37m) he will be at 18.75% of the team's cap. Right now he's at that 19.68%

And I would say that Curry is going to be the exception that proves the rule for a long while when it comes to nearly anything related to point guards, success, and salary.

[jambr380]

We traded a lot to get Holiday (as I mentioned with the top 10 pick earlier); there’s no way we just plan to let him go. He is guaranteed $39M next year, so if we extend him, you need to include that amount in the extension.

With no extension and just playing it out next year, what would he really be worth on the open market at 35 years old? $18-20M? That would put a 3 year extension this offseason between $75-80M or $25-27M/yr.

I think we have to do it (or we need to trade him), but it’s absolutely even more essential that we extend White. Please let him accept what we can give him

[BitterJim]

We traded a lot to get Holiday (as I mentioned with the top 10 pick earlier); there’s no way we just plan to let him go. He is guaranteed $39M next year, so if we extend him, you need to include that amount in the extension.

With no extension and just playing it out next year, what would he really be worth on the open market at 35 years old? $18-20M? That would put a 3 year extension this offseason between $75-80M or $25-27M/yr.

I think we have to do it (or we need to trade him), but it’s absolutely even more essential that we extend White. Please let him accept what we can give him

It's almost be better for us to have him pick up his option and then re-sign him later to a cheaper deal. We're better off being way over the second apron for one year than being slightly over it for 2 or 3.

Well, the owners might disagree with that because of how the luxury tax increases, but they should accept a year of lower profits to avoid team-building penalties.

[Goldstar88]

Good game on TNT between 76ers/Nuggets.

Thunder/Clippers to follow.

[celticsclay]

Good game on TNT between 76ers/Nuggets.

Thunder/Clippers to follow.

The shot making has been really good, but also not a whole lot of defense. Curious if this will settle down a bit in the second half or it will end up over 300 total points