Who You Got with the 14th Pick? (Poll added)

[mef730]

I'd trade all of our draft picks for #7 in a heartbeat. Don't see how Detroit would do it, though.

I understand that they are a rebuilding team and it gives them several bites at the apple in a tough draft, but #7 just has too much value, and I can't imagine that they want to get stuck with three guaranteed contracts.

Mike

[GreenShooter]

I'd trade all of our draft picks for #7 in a heartbeat. Don't see how Detroit would do it, though.

I understand that they are a rebuilding team and it gives them several bites at the apple in a tough draft, but #7 just has too much value, and I can't imagine that they want to get stuck with three guaranteed contracts.

Mike

This isn't a very good draft, especially at the top, so the 7th pick isn't that valuable. That said, the C's with all their picks have a top 10 (more like the 6th) highest draft power ranking. Detroit, with only the one pick, are outside the top 10. I don't see how their pick "just has too much value". If Detroit wants to rebuild then they would make that trade, imo.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I will say that I really don't agree with the narrative that this is a weak draft. I even heard one pundit say that this is the weakest draft ever. That's just not true.

This isn't the greatest draft ever, but there are legit high level prospects. I'm not thrilled about Ball and I agree with the question marks about Edwards, but there is a good deal of upside with both players. In my opinion, Wiseman is a better prospect than a guy like Deandre Ayton a few years ago. He looks like he has better defensive instincts already and is not nearly as soft around the rim. I think he's every bit the offensive player that Ayton is. Really, Ayton should not have been allowed to play for a full season either--both guys had recruiting violations but Wiseman was caught sooner.

There's a reason why KOC thought Hayes was the best prospect in this draft. I think he has the best court vision and scoring feel of any guard in this draft. On top of that, he has a huge, strong body for a guard. That kid will play in big games, make big shots, and probably make some all-star games.

I'm not as high on Vassell, Williams, and Okoro as some, but I can definitely see how they can be solid players in the NBA.

One Achiuwa, Hampton, and Anthony will become a high level player, maybe even an all-star in 5 years. They each have some real NBA talent. Achiuwa is the guy I think has the most potential to become the next Siakim-type player. He demonstrated a lot of versatility and at Memphis. Hampton and Anthony both have a lot of talent and athleticism. I think one of those guys will figure it out and be a great contributor to a winning team.

I haven't even talked about guys like Haliburton, Advija, and Okongwu who probably don't have the ceiling of being all-star players, but are two-way players with high level skills, which probably means their floor is pretty high.

There are other really interesting guys too. Someone in the pick 16-60 always turns out really good, but there are normally pretty solid role players available. That's true this year. I like Bey, Bey, Bolmaro,  and Riller as potential rotation guys in the NBA.

[Jvalin]

Bey is not even close to the playmaker Avdija is. Worlds apart.

If you ask me, there's not that big of a difference between them.

Avdija was just a role player for his team. He was a teenager playing alongside grown men, which probably means that he never had free rein on shot selection. No wonder he recorded lots of assists.

Bey was the leading scorer for his team, yet he recorded 2.4 assists per game with an AST/TO ratio of 1.61 (one of the best in the NCAA among forwards). He used to play the PG position in high school, which helped him become a good passer + ball handler.

Here are some scouting reports:

Bey actually began his quest toward his goal as a 5-foot-8 freshman point guard before going on what he called a “gradual” growth spurt to his current height of 6-8. As a smaller player, however, he learned skills that have helped him become a fine ballhandler, particularly against a press.
---------------------------------------
In high school, Bey played the point guard spot. He hit his growth spurt throughout high school starting at as 5’8″ as a freshman, and finished high school at 6’6”.

[mef730]

I'd trade all of our draft picks for #7 in a heartbeat. Don't see how Detroit would do it, though.

I understand that they are a rebuilding team and it gives them several bites at the apple in a tough draft, but #7 just has too much value, and I can't imagine that they want to get stuck with three guaranteed contracts.

Mike

This isn't a very good draft, especially at the top, so the 7th pick isn't that valuable. That said, the C's with all their picks have a top 10 (more like the 6th) highest draft power ranking. Detroit, with only the one pick, are outside the top 10. I don't see how their pick "just has too much value". If Detroit wants to rebuild then they would make that trade, imo.

TP in the hopes that you're correct.

Mike

[wiley]

Drafts without clear megastars at the top get labeled weak.

IMO this draft is rather deep...a bit "weak" at the top...but deep.  Everyone raves about next year's draft...and maybe the top 6 or 7 are great and better than this one...but so far next year's draft does not look deep to me at all....(I know it's early).

Kira Lewis/Terry/Maxey or Ramsey at 26 is deep.  Maybe all of those gone by then...but still deep imo.

(don't be shocked if Ramsey becomes a Celtic on draft night!...at 26 if he's there).  To be groomed as Marcus Smart-style backup PG.

[Jvalin]

Drafts without clear megastars at the top get labeled weak.

IMO this draft is rather deep...a bit "weak" at the top...but deep.  Everyone raves about next year's draft...and maybe the top 6 or 7 are great and better than this one...but so far next year's draft does not look deep to me at all....(I know it's early).

Kira Lewis/Terry/Maxey or Ramsey at 26 is deep.  Maybe all of those gone by then...but still deep imo.

(don't be shocked if Ramsey becomes a Celtic on draft night!...at 26 if he's there).  To be groomed as Marcus Smart-style backup PG.

TP! This is the perfect draft for a team that has 3 mid/late firsts.

- Top picks are less valuable, hence it's easier to trade up.
- Even if we stay put, there are plenty of solid prospects to choose from.

I'd be happy with either of S. Bey, Achiuwa, Nesmith or Vassell. Chances are that at least one of them will be on the board at #14.

[Vermont Green]

I'd trade all of our draft picks for #7 in a heartbeat. Don't see how Detroit would do it, though.

I understand that they are a rebuilding team and it gives them several bites at the apple in a tough draft, but #7 just has too much value, and I can't imagine that they want to get stuck with three guaranteed contracts.

Mike

This isn't a very good draft, especially at the top, so the 7th pick isn't that valuable. That said, the C's with all their picks have a top 10 (more like the 6th) highest draft power ranking. Detroit, with only the one pick, are outside the top 10. I don't see how their pick "just has too much value". If Detroit wants to rebuild then they would make that trade, imo.

You sparked my curiosity with this statement.  I think you are basing your values on the Tankathon value rankings.  I took this data and did a curve fit to estimate the value of each of the Celtics picks.  I did the same for value calculations from 2 other sources.

In all three cases, the total value of 14 and 26 was about equal to or a little greater value than the 7th pick.  So by this, Detroit would benefit from a trade of 7 for 14 and 26.  Even with this, somehow it does not seem like a good trade for Detroit but who knows.  I think it would be good for Boston for sure.

If we were to throw in the 47th (second round picks offer more contract flexibility so Detroit may actually prefer a 2nd round over another late 1st round) the "on paper" value add for Detroit would be anywhere between 5% and 20% (average 11% value add).  Give the 30 instead of 47 and it is even better.

Based on these charts though, I think the best deal is to give them 14, 26, and 47 for 7 leaving us with 7 and 30.  I would be very happy with that.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Drafts without clear megastars at the top get labeled weak.

IMO this draft is rather deep...a bit "weak" at the top...but deep.  Everyone raves about next year's draft...and maybe the top 6 or 7 are great and better than this one...but so far next year's draft does not look deep to me at all....(I know it's early).

Kira Lewis/Terry/Maxey or Ramsey at 26 is deep.  Maybe all of those gone by then...but still deep imo.

(don't be shocked if Ramsey becomes a Celtic on draft night!...at 26 if he's there).  To be groomed as Marcus Smart-style backup PG.

I like Ramsey too. I think he could be a Wesley Matthews or Gary Trent type of player.

[gift]

I'd trade all of our draft picks for #7 in a heartbeat. Don't see how Detroit would do it, though.

I understand that they are a rebuilding team and it gives them several bites at the apple in a tough draft, but #7 just has too much value, and I can't imagine that they want to get stuck with three guaranteed contracts.

Mike

This isn't a very good draft, especially at the top, so the 7th pick isn't that valuable. That said, the C's with all their picks have a top 10 (more like the 6th) highest draft power ranking. Detroit, with only the one pick, are outside the top 10. I don't see how their pick "just has too much value". If Detroit wants to rebuild then they would make that trade, imo.

You sparked my curiosity with this statement.  I think you are basing your values on the Tankathon value rankings.  I took this data and did a curve fit to estimate the value of each of the Celtics picks.  I did the same for value calculations from 2 other sources.

In all three cases, the total value of 14 and 26 was about equal to or a little greater value than the 7th pick.  So by this, Detroit would benefit from a trade of 7 for 14 and 26.  Even with this, somehow it does not seem like a good trade for Detroit but who knows.  I think it would be good for Boston for sure.

If we were to throw in the 47th (second round picks offer more contract flexibility so Detroit may actually prefer a 2nd round over another late 1st round) the "on paper" value add for Detroit would be anywhere between 5% and 20% (average 11% value add).  Give the 30 instead of 47 and it is even better.

Based on these charts though, I think the best deal is to give them 14, 26, and 47 for 7 leaving us with 7 and 30.  I would be very happy with that.

I'd be happy with that too. Still gives you two chances at finding a contributing player but gives you a little better chance to get one of the guys you really like.

[footey]

If Ainge tries to consolidate picks to trade up, it will evidence that there is someone that he really wants.

If he does not swap 3/1 picks, and uses all 3 first rounders, it may suggest that he doesn't like his current bench development (e.g., Edwards, Waters, Javonte Green, Semi, one or both Williams) and wants to rebuild it. 

The more confident Danny is in his current bench development, the more likely he will try to move up by consolidating picks. (or drafting and stashing)

[gift]

Just looked up Killian Hayes for the first time.

My god what an ugly jumper. Shot decently from 3 this year, but only over 10 games? I don't know much about the Euro schedule. Last year .192 over 33 games on half the attempts. Good FT% but doesn't look too athletic. Good vision, but seems a little slow. What's the deal with this guy? Is he any good? I see him usually in the top 10, but unless someone with more info can convince me otherwise, I'm out.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Just looked up Killian Hayes for the first time.

My god what an ugly jumper. Shot decently from 3 this year, but only over 10 games? I don't know much about the Euro schedule. Last year .192 over 33 games on half the attempts. Good FT% but doesn't look too athletic. Good vision, but seems a little slow. What's the deal with this guy? Is he any good? I see him usually in the top 10, but unless someone with more info can convince me otherwise, I'm out.

I think his jumper looks fine. Smooth release. Good touch. It needs a little work, but the basics of it look solid to me.

His court vision and ability to run the pick-and-roll make him a great prospect from the get-go. I think he has better vision and passing in the half-court than Ball does.

His athleticism is not Ja Morant. It's smooth and crafty. He has good quickness to beat his man and uses his athleticism well. He also has elite size for a lead guard and really good strength for a 19 year old.

He demonstrated the ability to finish at the rim and shoot floaters, eurosteps, and step throughs. His step-back jumpshot looks legit from two and his range should extend out as he gets older. As a 19 year old, he already seems to know to do that little hop-skip step-back that Tatum and Harden do. That's a good shot to have in the arsenal.

[gouki88]

I think Avdija has a floor that most likely pans out as that Batum-like 15-5-5 guy, but I think his ceiling is a Hayward/Hedo blend of All-Star level playmaking wing play.

I actually think his floor is way lower than that. Let's say Omri Casspi vol 2 (better passer than Casspi, worse shooter). Prime Batum was a 2-way player, whereas Avdija projects to be a way below average on-ball defender.

Not a big fan of Okongwu's game either. Personally speaking, I'd rather have Achiuwa over Okongwu.

If we were to trade up, my target would be Haliburton.

I don't agree with that at all about Avdija on defence. He has elite verticality, is a good team and help defender and recovers really well when beat. Once he adds some strength he'll be fine. I also remember Jayson Tatum being drafted with on-ball defence being a considerable criticism of his, and he's panned out pretty decently. He'll never be the wing defender that other guys in this draft are, but he's not bad by any means

I guess time will tell.

If you ask me, I'd rather have Saddiq Bey. He can do everything Avdija does on offense, plus he projects to be a better defender.

Since we are talking about wings, gimme Vassell + Nesmith over Avdija as well. Not the same type of players compared to Avdija, but imo they both have a considerably higher floor.

Bey is not even close to the playmaker Avdija is. Worlds apart. Bey plays offence like Tobias Harris does (or did when he was young) to my eye.

I like Nesmith's chance of being an NBA success. Elite JJ Reddick-like offensive player under Stackhouse, who had them running some advanced level stuff. Lots of elevator screens which is exciting. His ability to use screens is way beyond his years. I do have concerns over his absolute lack of displayed playmaking ability and injury worries.

I don't mind Vassell either, but his scoring profile is really nothing that excites me. I'd rather Josh Green, as he projects to be similarly elite defensively and will like be available lower than Vassell

I was high on Nesmith until recently when I listened to Max Carlin pray the Celtics don't draft him at 14.   Feels we need a guy who can create off dribble, and that Nesmith cannot. His shooting is elite, though.  I could see him as a Buddy Heild/Dale Ellis type to get us some efficient 3 point buckets off the bench.  Not sure if he would project as a starter; it depends on how he turns out defensively. The length is there for sure.

Interesting to read your take on Vassell vs Green. I will look at more tape on Green.  I like Vassell a lot, and could see him fitting very well into Brad's system.  Would you consider taking Green at 14?

Yeah, Nesmith would probably struggle to crack our starting lineup long-term. I can easily see guys like Achiuwa or Kira Lewis starting for us one day - not so easy with Nesmith.

14 might be too high for Green. He’s more of a 1-3 defender than a 2-4 defender, but some of his reflexive defensive plays are hard to comprehend! Like he’s reading their mind.

https://youtu.be/uhsQWjIbgoI

His defensive highlights begin at the 4:45 mark, his ability to close out aggressively while staying in front of his man and not over committing is superb. If he’s available at 26 (and my guy Paul Reed isn’t) I’d take a flyer

[Tr1boy]

I think Avdija has a floor that most likely pans out as that Batum-like 15-5-5 guy, but I think his ceiling is a Hayward/Hedo blend of All-Star level playmaking wing play.

I actually think his floor is way lower than that. Let's say Omri Casspi vol 2 (better passer than Casspi, worse shooter). Prime Batum was a 2-way player, whereas Avdija projects to be a way below average on-ball defender.

Not a big fan of Okongwu's game either. Personally speaking, I'd rather have Achiuwa over Okongwu.

If we were to trade up, my target would be Haliburton.

I don't agree with that at all about Avdija on defence. He has elite verticality, is a good team and help defender and recovers really well when beat. Once he adds some strength he'll be fine. I also remember Jayson Tatum being drafted with on-ball defence being a considerable criticism of his, and he's panned out pretty decently. He'll never be the wing defender that other guys in this draft are, but he's not bad by any means

I guess time will tell.

If you ask me, I'd rather have Saddiq Bey. He can do everything Avdija does on offense, plus he projects to be a better defender.

Since we are talking about wings, gimme Vassell + Nesmith over Avdija as well. Not the same type of players compared to Avdija, but imo they both have a considerably higher floor.

Bey is not even close to the playmaker Avdija is. Worlds apart. Bey plays offence like Tobias Harris does (or did when he was young) to my eye.

I like Nesmith's chance of being an NBA success. Elite JJ Reddick-like offensive player under Stackhouse, who had them running some advanced level stuff. Lots of elevator screens which is exciting. His ability to use screens is way beyond his years. I do have concerns over his absolute lack of displayed playmaking ability and injury worries.

I don't mind Vassell either, but his scoring profile is really nothing that excites me. I'd rather Josh Green, as he projects to be similarly elite defensively and will like be available lower than Vassell

I was high on Nesmith until recently when I listened to Max Carlin pray the Celtics don't draft him at 14.   Feels we need a guy who can create off dribble, and that Nesmith cannot. His shooting is elite, though.  I could see him as a Buddy Heild/Dale Ellis type to get us some efficient 3 point buckets off the bench.  Not sure if he would project as a starter; it depends on how he turns out defensively. The length is there for sure.

Interesting to read your take on Vassell vs Green. I will look at more tape on Green.  I like Vassell a lot, and could see him fitting very well into Brad's system.  Would you consider taking Green at 14?

Yeah, Nesmith would probably struggle to crack our starting lineup long-term. I can easily see guys like Achiuwa or Kira Lewis starting for us one day - not so easy with Nesmith.

14 might be too high for Green. He’s more of a 1-3 defender than a 2-4 defender, but some of his reflexive defensive plays are hard to comprehend! Like he’s reading their mind.

https://youtu.be/uhsQWjIbgoI

His defensive highlights begin at the 4:45 mark, his ability to close out aggressively while staying in front of his man and not over committing is superb. If he’s available at 26 (and my guy Paul Reed isn’t) I’d take a flyer

why would Nesmith struggle?

He would fit in nicely. 6'5 with 6'10 wingspan.  Versatile.   One of the best 3 pt shooters of the draft.  He doesn't need to create his own shot. But can help open the floor

There is no guarantee that Hayward stays long term.  Nor Marcus Smart.