Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[Silky]

so then we are looking at:

tatum (7.
Yabusele (3.1)
Pick 14, 20, 24 (4.5ish mill)
Some Scrap Heap Signing (5+Mill)

and in 90 days after signing the scrap heap player to a multi year deal....trade for Davis.

I dont have alot of faith in that happening....







Rozier and Morris should have been moved by deadline for a 9 ish mill, multi year deal player. And it wouldnt be an issue at all.
(Orlando for Augustine and Frazier)
(Washington for Mahinimi and their pick)

I am certain there was deals out there.

[Moranis]

Its not that the expected value of the pick is much greater next year rather than this year. Its that it has potential they can sell AND it gives the C's asset diversity.

They already have 3 picks this draft, better to have another in the next two years than a fourth pick this year. Both if they end up keeping it or in a trade.

For Bostons sake, it is better to have it parlay now. (talking Davis Trade here)

That pick signed at 120% equals about 3.7 mill in salary.

Add that to pick 14 and 20 and we are talking a little over 9 mill in salary.

Add that to Yabusele and tatum and now we are close enough that a trade for a non trade kicker Davis works.

Basically that picks salary saves having trade 1 of Brown or Smart....OR.... it saves the financial headache of finding a way to work a Rozier s&T with a third team to protect those 2 assets.

Basically for Boston that 9th pick equals keeping Brown and Smart as opposed to losing 1 of them.

As an aside your numbers are for this year's rookie scale, next years are different. (about 20% higher)

You are wrong about the pick not conveying meaning that Brown/Smart has to be in the deal for salary purposes. The C's can do what Houston did and sign a bunch of small salaried players, or just sign one player to a bigger deal to make the gap up. If those players are in the deal its because NOP wanted them.

Boston's front office who is much more familiar with the salary math than either you or I would greatly prefer the pick NOT convey this year. This is based on multiple sourced beat reporters and national guys. (Himmelsbach/Lowe/etc)

https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1115108868311457794

If the pick is more valuable rolled over, then they can potentially include less talent and more salary make weight in any potential deal.

To build on this, between picks 14, 20 and 22 at the 120% f the rook scale would be around 8.5 Million in salary. Tatum, Yabu, Williams would come out to almost 13. So already you are right at or juts shy of the 21.6 you would need to trade for Davis. The extra money this pick provides for cap filler is worth almost nothing in a trade, we just dont need it to make it work. And that assuming we having enough in the trade without Brown or Smart to get it done anyway, this pick conveying this year loses value and actually makes it MORE likely we have to include Brown or Smart to make up that value.

only if New Orleans thinks it has less value, which contrary to you assertions in this thread is far from a given.

Fair enough. I know that MEM does want it to convey, and BOS does not. I would think if it where more valuable at 9 BOS would want it to convey. So I'm pretty confident in that assertion.

How do you know Boston doesn't want it to convey?  And Memphis wanting it to convey doesn't mean what you think it means.

Adam Himmelsbach seems to think the C's strongly do NOT want it to convey.

"We’ve know for a while that the Celtics don’t want the Grizzlies’ pick to convey, but I was a little unsure about how badly, because the No. 9 overall pick would still be a trade chip. But a Cs source tonight said they *really* don’t want it this year."

https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1115108868311457794

Whether or not this is misdirection by Ainge, who knows.

Himmelsbach also thinks the Warriors should tank against the Grizz on Tuesday to help the pick convey, as we would be their top threat if we land AD.

Even if true it might not have anything to do with perceived value, it might quite simply be because Boston doesn't want 4 1st round picks in the same draft.  Spreading the picks out might have more value to Boston even if the pick itself doesn't have more value. 

[rondofan1255]

I saw online that the Dubs said they’ll rest 4 of 8 rotation players in both remaining games against Pelicans and Grizzlies

[smokeablount]

I saw online that the Dubs said they’ll rest 4 of 8 rotation players in both remaining games against Pelicans and Grizzlies

I couldn't find this (did a quick Google search), any idea which 4?  It'd be great if they didn't sit KD, Steph & Klay (for the Griz game at least).

[rondofan1255]

I saw online that the Dubs said they’ll rest 4 of 8 rotation players in both remaining games against Pelicans and Grizzlies

I couldn't find this (did a quick Google search), any idea which 4?  It'd be great if they didn't sit KD, Steph & Klay (for the Griz game at least).

Different four rest each game, no mention of which ones

Also, Conley and Noah and Bradley ruled out for tomorrow’s Detroit game. I read that Bradley has been cleared but has been sitting out as a precaution

[keevsnick]

Its not that the expected value of the pick is much greater next year rather than this year. Its that it has potential they can sell AND it gives the C's asset diversity.

They already have 3 picks this draft, better to have another in the next two years than a fourth pick this year. Both if they end up keeping it or in a trade.

For Bostons sake, it is better to have it parlay now. (talking Davis Trade here)

That pick signed at 120% equals about 3.7 mill in salary.

Add that to pick 14 and 20 and we are talking a little over 9 mill in salary.

Add that to Yabusele and tatum and now we are close enough that a trade for a non trade kicker Davis works.

Basically that picks salary saves having trade 1 of Brown or Smart....OR.... it saves the financial headache of finding a way to work a Rozier s&T with a third team to protect those 2 assets.

Basically for Boston that 9th pick equals keeping Brown and Smart as opposed to losing 1 of them.

As an aside your numbers are for this year's rookie scale, next years are different. (about 20% higher)

You are wrong about the pick not conveying meaning that Brown/Smart has to be in the deal for salary purposes. The C's can do what Houston did and sign a bunch of small salaried players, or just sign one player to a bigger deal to make the gap up. If those players are in the deal its because NOP wanted them.

Boston's front office who is much more familiar with the salary math than either you or I would greatly prefer the pick NOT convey this year. This is based on multiple sourced beat reporters and national guys. (Himmelsbach/Lowe/etc)

https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1115108868311457794

If the pick is more valuable rolled over, then they can potentially include less talent and more salary make weight in any potential deal.

To build on this, between picks 14, 20 and 22 at the 120% f the rook scale would be around 8.5 Million in salary. Tatum, Yabu, Williams would come out to almost 13. So already you are right at or juts shy of the 21.6 you would need to trade for Davis. The extra money this pick provides for cap filler is worth almost nothing in a trade, we just dont need it to make it work. And that assuming we having enough in the trade without Brown or Smart to get it done anyway, this pick conveying this year loses value and actually makes it MORE likely we have to include Brown or Smart to make up that value.

only if New Orleans thinks it has less value, which contrary to you assertions in this thread is far from a given.

Fair enough. I know that MEM does want it to convey, and BOS does not. I would think if it where more valuable at 9 BOS would want it to convey. So I'm pretty confident in that assertion.

How do you know Boston doesn't want it to convey?  And Memphis wanting it to convey doesn't mean what you think it means.

Adam Himmelsbach seems to think the C's strongly do NOT want it to convey.

"We’ve know for a while that the Celtics don’t want the Grizzlies’ pick to convey, but I was a little unsure about how badly, because the No. 9 overall pick would still be a trade chip. But a Cs source tonight said they *really* don’t want it this year."

https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1115108868311457794

Whether or not this is misdirection by Ainge, who knows.

Himmelsbach also thinks the Warriors should tank against the Grizz on Tuesday to help the pick convey, as we would be their top threat if we land AD.

Even if true it might not have anything to do with perceived value, it might quite simply be because Boston doesn't want 4 1st round picks in the same draft.  Spreading the picks out might have more value to Boston even if the pick itself doesn't have more value.

Maybe, but at the very least I think  means they don't believe it loses value if it roles over. Considering the pick is first and foremost trade bait I think it's more likely they want it to role over because it's a higher value play, having too many picks won't matter to NOP who only have like 8 guys under contract next year.

[keevsnick]

so then we are looking at:

tatum (7.
Yabusele (3.1)
Pick 14, 20, 24 (4.5ish mill)
Some Scrap Heap Signing (5+Mill)

and in 90 days after signing the scrap heap player to a multi year deal....trade for Davis.

I dont have alot of faith in that happening....







Rozier and Morris should have been moved by deadline for a 9 ish mill, multi year deal player. And it wouldnt be an issue at all.
(Orlando for Augustine and Frazier)
(Washington for Mahinimi and their pick)

I am certain there was deals out there.

 

Your numbers are wrong. Its 2.87 for the 14th pick, 2.15 for 20 and about 1.85 for 24. At 120% that number its 8.2 million ish, plus Tatum and yabu and William's at 2 mill and you are only a million away. So to reiterate, we don't need the number 9 pick salary to pretty easily get there.

[rondofan1255]

https://twitter.com/GrizzliesPR/status/1115334582734348289

@memgrizz injury report, April 9 vs @DetroitPistons

[CptZoogs]

https://twitter.com/GrizzliesPR/status/1115334582734348289

@memgrizz injury report, April 9 vs @DetroitPistons

Looks like they will need to have the ball boy suit up.  Maybe some of the popcorn vendors too.

[Sophomore]

https://twitter.com/GrizzliesPR/status/1115334582734348289

@memgrizz injury report, April 9 vs @DetroitPistons

Looks like they will need to have the ball boy suit up.  Maybe some of the popcorn vendors too.

Lol. Doesn’t look like Memphis is desperate to win this game.

[smokeablount]

https://twitter.com/GrizzliesPR/status/1115334582734348289

@memgrizz injury report, April 9 vs @DetroitPistons

Looks like they will need to have the ball boy suit up.  Maybe some of the popcorn vendors too.

Lol. Doesn’t look like Memphis is desperate to win this game.

I wish Silky had bet me that hundred bucks.

[JBcat]

so then we are looking at:

tatum (7.
Yabusele (3.1)
Pick 14, 20, 24 (4.5ish mill)
Some Scrap Heap Signing (5+Mill)

and in 90 days after signing the scrap heap player to a multi year deal....trade for Davis.

I dont have alot of faith in that happening....







Rozier and Morris should have been moved by deadline for a 9 ish mill, multi year deal player. And it wouldnt be an issue at all.
(Orlando for Augustine and Frazier)
(Washington for Mahinimi and their pick)

I am certain there was deals out there.

 

Your numbers are wrong. Its 2.87 for the 14th pick, 2.15 for 20 and about 1.85 for 24. At 120% that number its 8.2 million ish, plus Tatum and yabu and William's at 2 mill and you are only a million away. So to reiterate, we don't need the number 9 pick salary to pretty easily get there.

We can sign and trade Rozier for say 12 mil, and 6 mil will count as receiving money for NO.

[rondofan1255]

Memphis lost.

Memphis was up big at the half and in control... until Detroit finally benched a clearly hobbled Blake, who was playing Dirk-like Defense with almost no lift, and Reggie Jackson. game and energy immediately shifted

Props last game to DAL’s Mejri and Burke

Tonight’s DET difference makers Ish Smith MVP. Also Drummond forcing turnovers, and then Kennard for timely 3s

[jpotter33]

Wait wait wait - I thought Memphis was guaranteed to win tonight, just like they're guaranteed to convey the pick this year? 

[jpotter33]

Well with NOLA's loss and Dallas being up 30 on Phoenix, it looks like at this point the worst that can happen barring a colossal Dallas collapse is a three-way tie for the 7th worst record with Memphis, Dallas, and NOLA, meaning that with the coin flips to determine lottery positions we'd have a 66% chance of Memphis ending up pre-lottery with spot number 7 or 8.

I'll take those odds. And then we'd just have to hope that one or two of those teams behind Memphis don't jump into the top-4. That is, unless it is Sacramento jumping to spot 2, 3, or 4.