Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[Silky]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

But the Nets situation was different. They had all those big salaries on the books and no chance at replenishing their coffers due to that. Memphis will be free and clean after next year and can sign 2 big stars. To me, the situations are entirely different.

Not saying we cannot get lucky 21..anything can happen but not counting on it as a sure thing either. There is risk/reward in any scenario and maybe the chance to get lucky in 21 with a top 3 pick is greater reward then a 9 pick this year, even if bad odds of doing so.

Do you really believe Memphis of all places is going to add 2 big stars when their market sucks and their team sucks? 

I'd say it's 2-3x more likely that the pick conveys to us in 2021 and lands #1 than that Memphis dream scenario is.

Well that is just one big assumption.

Would I expect memphis to sign a max free agent? Probably not, Would I expect them to sign a secondary player at a perhaps slight overpay, to join their young pieces and in doing so push them up towards a playoff spot? Absolutely

[Sophomore]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not. 

 

[smokeablount]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

[tstorey_97]

Let's say Memphis "doesn't want to make the 7th pick" this year. They just don't, the guys around #7 are not what they want. So, they want to lose tonight against GSW and coin flip or whatever out of the pick.

From what I've seen? Grizz are not going to win tonight. They are not playing anybody from their regular season roster.

My second bout of raw speculation? Ainge has "put it out there" that the "Celtics don't want the pick this year."

The master propagandist says he "doesn't want the pick."

Well, he knows his assorted post season trade packages better than I do. He knows potential Grizz lineups for 2019/20.

I think Ainge wants the pick this year because it's April and right when the flowers start to bloom each spring? Danny Ainge's pants catch on fire.

[Sophomore]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

[GreenShooter]

I mentioned this before but the 2021 class is loaded. See below comment about it's top prospect and also a link to a an article, if anyone has the attention span. It's why I want the pick to roll over until then but I want the pick this year if N'Orleans does.

"Jalen Green might be the best prospect in high school basketball, regardless of class. He's a sensational athlete with truly elite leaping ability and a scorers mentality. He heads an insanely strong class, which projects as the best draft class in many years."

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2018/03/jalen-green-is-one.html

[keevsnick]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

But the Nets situation was different. They had all those big salaries on the books and no chance at replenishing their coffers due to that. Memphis will be free and clean after next year and can sign 2 big stars. To me, the situations are entirely different.

Not saying we cannot get lucky 21..anything can happen but not counting on it as a sure thing either. There is risk/reward in any scenario and maybe the chance to get lucky in 21 with a top 3 pick is greater reward then a 9 pick this year, even if bad odds of doing so.

Do you really believe Memphis of all places is going to add 2 big stars when their market sucks and their team sucks? 

I'd say it's 2-3x more likely that the pick conveys to us in 2021 and lands #1 than that Memphis dream scenario is.

Well that is just one big assumption.

Would I expect memphis to sign a max free agent? Probably not, Would I expect them to sign a secondary player at a perhaps slight overpay, to join their young pieces and in doing so push them up towards a playoff spot? Absolutely

Well for one thing, the 2020 free agents class. Which is the one where they ill have money, if very bad. The best player on it is Draymond. For another thing overprice middle of the road role player arent going to make them a playoff team, they almost never do.

This is a pretty simple calculus. If the Grizzlies are a bottom six type of team in 2020, low enough that the pick roles over again, how likely is it that they get good enough to make the playoffs the next year? The answer is very unlikely, to my memory two teams have wet from picking bottom six to playoffs in one year (at least recently). this years Orland Magic (who wouldn't have made it in the west), and the Cleveland Cavaliers when Lebron came back. That means the worst case scenario s a pick in the 12-14 range in a better draft in 2021. So essentially not much loss in value. The median outcome is probably the Grizzies convey something to us next year in the 7-9 range, so really not much different than what we are getting now. And the best case, an unprotected pick in the top half of the lottery with a pretty decent shot at top 4 in a better draft, is so valuable I think you risk those other outcomes.

[keevsnick]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

Again guys, the salary from this years pick des not make or break having to send Smart or Brown. Between 14, 20, 22 we would have almost 8.5 million in salary (at 120% rookie scale), then Tatum +Williams +Yabu is just over twelve. Thats about 20.5, or 1 million shy of the 21.6 we need. A minimum salary like Semi does it.

Putting it another way. If Boston doesn't wnat the pick to convey then they either A) Know that smart or Brown needs to be in the deal, so this is a moot point. or B) Know they don't need the extra salary and have a way or ways to get it done without them.

[keevsnick]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

So they will have JJJ, a pick this year who according to most draft pundits will be at best a role payer, and a rookie? Thats not going to be a very scary team. And hell, thats if they actually pick well. Most case swill see 1 of those picks be a relative bust.

Now for sure, landing Zion would suck, so then they probably just convey the pick next year right back in the same range its at now, maybe a little later like 9-12. Again, I'll take that chance.

[smokeablount]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

I love JJJ, I rated him higher in the Young Player Redraft than anyone else.  That said, JJJ, plus a disappointing prospect in the #6-8 range this year, plus Dillon Brooks does not remotely equal De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, WCS, Bojan, Bagley, Giles, and Jackson who they parlayed into Harrison Barnes.  That's an entire near-playoff rotation of 3x the young talent that's also mostly further along in their development. 

[JBcat]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

Again guys, the salary from this years pick des not make or break having to send Smart or Brown. Between 14, 20, 22 we would have almost 8.5 million in salary (at 120% rookie scale), then Tatum +Williams +Yabu is just over twelve. Thats about 20.5, or 1 million shy of the 21.6 we need. A minimum salary like Semi does it.

Putting it another way. If Boston doesn't wnat the pick to convey then they either A) Know that smart or Brown needs to be in the deal, so this is a moot point. or B) Know they don't need the extra salary and have a way or ways to get it done without them.

TP.  Not only this but Rozier if you have willing parties on both sides can be included in a S&T deal (we can combine with other salaries but only half his new salary counts towards the receiving team.  So if he is signed for 12 mil a year 6 mil will go towards the trade.)

[Sophomore]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

Again guys, the salary from this years pick des not make or break having to send Smart or Brown. Between 14, 20, 22 we would have almost 8.5 million in salary (at 120% rookie scale), then Tatum +Williams +Yabu is just over twelve. Thats about 20.5, or 1 million shy of the 21.6 we need. A minimum salary like Semi does it.

Putting it another way. If Boston doesn't wnat the pick to convey then they either A) Know that smart or Brown needs to be in the deal, so this is a moot point. or B) Know they don't need the extra salary and have a way or ways to get it done without them.

TP.  Not only this but Rozier if you have willing parties on both sides can be included in a S&T deal (we can combine with other salaries but only half his new salary counts towards the receiving team.  So if he is signed for 12 mil a year 6 mil will go towards the trade.)

I did not mean that we would need the 9 pick, necessarily, to make the math work. I meant Memphis also has to want whatever deal we offer.  And while I get that they value Tatum highly, a huge pu-pu platter of overpaid mid-first round players and sign-and-traded guys we don't want may, in their eyes, subtract from the deal. When we make the salaries work we also have to consider the value of the assets we are using to make those salaries work.

[rondofan1255]

https://twitter.com/GrizzliesPR/status/1115963630661570560

@memgrizz injury report, April 10 vs @warriors:

For GSW, Curry Cousins Draymond have been ruled out. Durant and Klay are listed as questionable.

[Sophomore]

Well, next year Memphis still has 103M on the books but the following year that we are hoping to have the lottery pick unprotected, they will have only 44M on the books which gives them a lot of room to make a run at two big free agents which could make that pick not that attractive anymore. That combined with the draft picks they get this year and the next. I am not sure I am on board the lets hope we get lucky in 21 scenario and that they don't sign any big free agents that year to compete again. Time will tell.

I sure never expected the Kings to be this good this year and thought that was a no brainer to let it ride as well.

People keep saying this as evidence for wanting the Memphis pick now, but those same people never mention Brooklyn thinking that their future unprotected picks were no big deal and gifting us the #7, #3, and #1 picks in that order.  Also, note how those picks got better.

Aren't there big differences?  Brooklyn kept getting worse in part because they weren't reloading with new talent AND their cap sheet was clogged. The Grizz got to keep JJJ jr instead of shipping him to Boston, and if they retain this year's top-8 pick and next year's top-6 they'll have those players too. Three top 8 (or better) selections plus free agents, and zero incentive to tank. Consider, too, that if they land sixth or seventh worst in the standings they have a 30-something percent change to land top 4 and an 8-9% chance of getting Zion. Who knows what a top-six pick next year might be.

They might blow it and hand over a great pick, but it's not hard to see they might not.

Yeah, and Sacto had an entire team of high lottery picks this year who were in their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year, ripe to develop.  Memphis has JJJ and that's about it.  There are just as many differences between Sacto and Memphis as there are between Brooklyn and Memphis.

Well, in the relevant year JJJ (high lottery pick) will be in his third year, and if they pick someone this year (high pick) will be in his second year. Also, Dillon Brooks will be in his fourth or fifth year, depending how you count; Brooks was chosen 15th, so mid-first, but he had a very solid rookie season in 2017-18 before losing most of this year to injury. Caboclo looks like another young, capable rotation player. I can easily see 2-3 very good young players in that group, to which they can add capable vet FAs.

Will they succeed? Who knows? After all, Phoenix is terrible and they pick high year after year. But I'd say that the likelihood of a top-five pick in 2021 isn't all that good.

That said, the only reason I would really want the pick to convey this year is if the salary helps us get AD without sending Smart or Brown. Otherwise, it's just better to spread this pick out into a different year. Maybe it's better, maybe it's not; it probably won't be much worse, but at least it would be in a different year and we would not have a fist full of picks this year.

I love JJJ, I rated him higher in the Young Player Redraft than anyone else.  That said, JJJ, plus a disappointing prospect in the #6-8 range this year, plus Dillon Brooks does not remotely equal De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, WCS, Bojan, Bagley, Giles, and Jackson who they parlayed into Harrison Barnes.  That's an entire near-playoff rotation of 3x the young talent that's also mostly further along in their development.

Couple of thoughts.

 You left out a pick and already decided that this year's pick is trash. Can't do either if we're gaming this out.

This year they will probably pick in the 6-8 range, but there is a healthy chance (37-9%) that their pick will be in the 1-4 range. We can't discount that to zero until the lottery is over. One possible outcome is that they will get Zion, Barrett, Morant, or Culver to put next to JJJ.

And, if we are thinking about the value of their 2021 pick to the Celtics, you also have to factor in whoever they pick in the 1-6 range next year (we're assuming the pick doesn't come to us next year).  So there is JJJ, this year's pick, and next year's pick, all top-of-the-draft picks.

To that we *then* we add Dillon and Caboclo, who look capable of being rotation players on good teams, and whoever they can pick up in free agency. I have no idea who they will get (nobody does) but they will have abundant room under the cap. If the young talent is promising and the team treats the players well it's not hard to see good players wanting to go there.

After all that, will they be a dumpster fire?  They might. But there are also a lot of scenarios in which they're a mediocre team - picking no earlier than ninth and possibly later.

I still see an upside in delaying the pick - having four this year isn't ideal - and given the way the lottery works there is some value in having the pick only after the protections come off. So, net, I'm still OK with it rolling over, provided that doesn't affect who we have to send Memphis in an AD trade. If my choices are: (1) send Tatum + Smart or Brown + salary and picks; or (2) Send Tatum + salary and picks, I choose door number 2.

[CelticSooner]

Well I was confident they would beat detroit. But appears they found a way to lose that game.

And I am being convinced that this is a good thing. So I am glad I was wrong about them winning the last 2 games?

Although I still think they beat GSW

If they finish at the 7th spot there is a 14.7% chance drops to 9 or 10 amd converts this season.

If they go to the 8th spot the odds the pick translates is 39.3%

Hope they lose to GS tonight and stay at #7.  It is a good thing bro. 

Welcome to Team Rollover!  There's room on the train for everyone.

Hey, I am not sold completely on it yet.

Only because there was a tweet somewhere stating the team wanted it to roll over that I am wavering.

I dont understand the logic of wanting it to roll over, but if Danny says yes, then yes?

Because the value of the pick is based on perception. A pick that can possibly be unprotected by a lottery team is worth more. Memphis will only get worse after this year. The western conference will assure that.