Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[Neurotic Guy]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots.

That is the point.  You aren't trading #9 for a top 5 in 2 years; you are trading #9 for a chance at a top 5 in 2 years.   It could also easily be conveyed in 1 year -- #7 at best.  I think it is a reasonable argument that some GMs will value the chance of a future top  pick higher than the certainty of #9 in the current draft, but I think we are talking about something that is, at best, uncertain. That is, uncertain that the value either goes up or down in the eyes of GMs if it conveys this year at 9. 

If Memphis doesn't convey this year or next, we know that the Griz have added a top 8 pick this year and a top 6 pick next year. And... they will have plenty of cap space and plenty of reason not to tank in 20-21.

[SHAQATTACK]

Conley doubtful again (is he even going to play again this season?) and Doncic ruled out (same goes for him)

Must-lose game if you don’t want pick to convey

looks like your going to get your wish

[rondofan1255]

Conley doubtful again (is he even going to play again this season?) and Doncic ruled out (same goes for him)

Must-lose game if you don’t want pick to convey

looks like your going to get your wish

Memphis is up 56-52 at halftime of today’s game
More like G league showcase

[rondofan1255]

Dallas won 129-127 in OT.

#6-9 worst teams are all 32-48 atm

[keevsnick]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots.

That is the point.  You aren't trading #9 for a top 5 in 2 years; you are trading #9 for a chance at a top 5 in 2 years.   It could also easily be conveyed in 1 year -- #7 at best.  I think it is a reasonable argument that some GMs will value the chance of a future top  pick higher than the certainty of #9 in the current draft, but I think we are talking about something that is, at best, uncertain. That is, uncertain that the value either goes up or down in the eyes of GMs if it conveys this year at 9. 

If Memphis doesn't convey this year or next, we know that the Griz have added a top 8 pick this year and a top 6 pick next year. And... they will have plenty of cap space and plenty of reason not to tank in 20-21.

My post was in response to the previous poster who said one year of waiting for a pick was worth 5-10 draft slots. My point was it is not. That's why I said you would clearly trade 9 for 1-5 a year later.

I fully understand that you are only trading for a chance at top 5, I just think the risk is worth it.

[Silky]

Memphis will win the next 2 games

Surprised they found a way to lose this one honestly...but with jonas having a sprined ankle certainly hurt them.

Dorsey
Wright
Holiday
JJJ
Jonas

Is a talented hungry team with alot to prove. That pick will get worse the longer is stays with memphis.

Luckily they will still finish 9th and be a salaried asset is a trade for ad.

[CelticsElite]

Will be interesting to see what danny does if this one conveys


He has quite the eye when drafting at the high end of the draft

[liam]

Will be interesting to see what danny does if this one conveys


He has quite the eye when drafting at the high end of the draft

I hope Rui Hachimura is there at 9.

[keevsnick]

Well with the regular seaosn ending Wednesdya here is the state of the race for 6-9 positions pre lottery. MEM is at DET Tuesday with DET fighting for the playoofs still. Their last game is GSW who already has the one seed locked up. NOP plays the GSW's on tuesday as well. DAL is at home vs PHO which they should probably win, then on the road vs SAS who are still gonna likely be trying to avoid the 8th seed and a GSW matchup in the first round. WAS has their tueday home game against BOS where BOS will be retsing their guys.

NOP 33-48, Vs GSW Tuesday
MEM 32-48, At DET Tuesday, Vs GSW Wednesday
DAL 32-48, VS PHO Tuesday, At SAS Wednesday
WAS 32-49, VS BOS Tuesday

[smokeablount]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots.

That is the point.  You aren't trading #9 for a top 5 in 2 years; you are trading #9 for a chance at a top 5 in 2 years.   It could also easily be conveyed in 1 year -- #7 at best.  I think it is a reasonable argument that some GMs will value the chance of a future top  pick higher than the certainty of #9 in the current draft, but I think we are talking about something that is, at best, uncertain. That is, uncertain that the value either goes up or down in the eyes of GMs if it conveys this year at 9. 

If Memphis doesn't convey this year or next, we know that the Griz have added a top 8 pick this year and a top 6 pick next year. And... they will have plenty of cap space and plenty of reason not to tank in 20-21.

My post was in response to the previous poster who said one year of waiting for a pick was worth 5-10 draft slots. My point was it is not. That's why I said you would clearly trade 9 for 1-5 a year later.

I fully understand that you are only trading for a chance at top 5, I just think the risk is worth it.

And so does nearly every GM, which is why the lottery consists of nearly all freshman and 19 year old international players, year after year. 

[smokeablount]

Memphis will win the next 2 games

Surprised they found a way to lose this one honestly...but with jonas having a sprined ankle certainly hurt them.

Dorsey
Wright
Holiday
JJJ
Jonas

Is a talented hungry team with alot to prove. That pick will get worse the longer is stays with memphis.

Luckily they will still finish 9th and be a salaried asset is a trade for ad.

You've stated a lot of opinions as fact throughout this thread.  I'll bet you $100 that Memphis doesn't win the next 2 games.  Care to put your money where your mouth is?

[MichiganAdam]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots.

That is the point.  You aren't trading #9 for a top 5 in 2 years; you are trading #9 for a chance at a top 5 in 2 years.   It could also easily be conveyed in 1 year -- #7 at best.  I think it is a reasonable argument that some GMs will value the chance of a future top  pick higher than the certainty of #9 in the current draft, but I think we are talking about something that is, at best, uncertain. That is, uncertain that the value either goes up or down in the eyes of GMs if it conveys this year at 9. 

If Memphis doesn't convey this year or next, we know that the Griz have added a top 8 pick this year and a top 6 pick next year. And... they will have plenty of cap space and plenty of reason not to tank in 20-21.

My post was in response to the previous poster who said one year of waiting for a pick was worth 5-10 draft slots. My point was it is not. That's why I said you would clearly trade 9 for 1-5 a year later.

I fully understand that you are only trading for a chance at top 5, I just think the risk is worth it.

I understand that is your opinion.  I just disagree.  When a team has no incentive to tank, while others have incentive TO tank, the odds of getting those high picks are less.  It almost takes injury to already bad teams to get into those top picks for a team with no incentive to tank.  Drafts being roughly equal in quality...I'll take the "money" now and start making "interest".

[Fafnir]

Its not that the expected value of the pick is much greater next year rather than this year. Its that it has potential they can sell AND it gives the C's asset diversity.

They already have 3 picks this draft, better to have another in the next two years than a fourth pick this year. Both if they end up keeping it or in a trade.

[Silky]

Its not that the expected value of the pick is much greater next year rather than this year. Its that it has potential they can sell AND it gives the C's asset diversity.

They already have 3 picks this draft, better to have another in the next two years than a fourth pick this year. Both if they end up keeping it or in a trade.

For Bostons sake, it is better to have it parlay now. (talking Davis Trade here)

That pick signed at 120% equals about 3.7 mill in salary.

Add that to pick 14 and 20 and we are talking a little over 9 mill in salary.

Add that to Yabusele and tatum and now we are close enough that a trade for a non trade kicker Davis works.

Basically that picks salary saves having trade 1 of Brown or Smart....OR.... it saves the financial headache of finding a way to work a Rozier s&T with a third team to protect those 2 assets.

Basically for Boston that 9th pick equals keeping Brown and Smart as opposed to losing 1 of them.

[Silky]

Memphis will win the next 2 games

Surprised they found a way to lose this one honestly...but with jonas having a sprined ankle certainly hurt them.

Dorsey
Wright
Holiday
JJJ
Jonas

Is a talented hungry team with alot to prove. That pick will get worse the longer is stays with memphis.

Luckily they will still finish 9th and be a salaried asset is a trade for ad.

You've stated a lot of opinions as fact throughout this thread.  I'll bet you $100 that Memphis doesn't win the next 2 games.  Care to put your money where your mouth is?

betting is moronic. so No.

I will be shocked if they lose those either of those 2 games. They want to win both those games, losing Jonas to injury hurts them alot, but they will leave everything on the court.

If you disagree, perhaps substantiate your claims instead of trying to goad me into a `bet`