Memphis Grizzlies 2018-2019 Season Watch Thread

[rondofan1255]

A look at some past #9 picks...

2017 - Pick: Dennis Smith Jr., PG, N.C. State
2012 - Pick: Andre Drummond, C, UConn
2011 - Pick: Kemba Walker, PG, UConn
2010 - Pick: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
2009 - Pick: Demar DeRozan, SG, USC
2002 - Amar’e Stoudemire
1998 - Dirk Nowitzki

I know the past doesn't mean a lot, however you never know...

Also

Joakim Noah
Andre Iguodala
Shawn Marion

[nickagneta]

A look at some past #9 picks...

2017 - Pick: Dennis Smith Jr., PG, N.C. State
2012 - Pick: Andre Drummond, C, UConn
2011 - Pick: Kemba Walker, PG, UConn
2010 - Pick: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
2009 - Pick: Demar DeRozan, SG, USC
2002 - Amar’e Stoudemire
1998 - Dirk Nowitzki

I know the past doesn't mean a lot, however you never know...

The #9 pick seems to be very much complete hit or complete bust since the mid 90's. Not a lot in between.

2017 Dennis Smith Jr., N.C. State – Dallas Mavericks
2016 Jakob Poeltl, Utah – Toronto Raptors
2015 Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin – Charlotte Hornets
2014 Noah Vonleh, Indiana – Charlotte Hornets
2013 Trey Burke, Michigan – Minnesota Timberwolves
2012 Andre Drummond, Connecticut – Detroit Pistons
2011 Kemba Walker, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2010 Gordon Hayward, Butler – Utah Jazz2000’s2009 DeMar Derozen, USC – Toronto Raptors
2008 D.J. Augustin, Texas – Charlotte Bobcats
2007 Joakim Noah, Florida – Chicago Bulls
2006 Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley – Golden State Warriors
2005 Ike Diogu, Arizona State – Golden State Warriors
2004 Andre Iguodala, Arizona – Philadelphia 76ers
2003 Mike Sweetney, Georgetown – New York Knicks
2002 Amare Stoudemire, Cypress Creek HS (Fla.) – Phoenix Suns
2001 Rodney White, UNC-Charlotte – Detroit Pistons
2000 Joel Przybilla, Minnesota – Houston Rockets1990’s1999 Shawn Marion, UNLV – Phoenix Suns
1998 Dirk Nowitzki, Germany – Milwaukee Bucks
1997 Tracy McGrady, Mount Zion Christian Academy (N.C.) – Toronto Raptors
1996 Samaki Walker, Louisville – Dallas Mavericks
1995 Ed O’Bannon, UCLA – New Jersey Nets

[MichiganAdam]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

[rondofan1255]

Conley doubtful again (is he even going to play again this season?) and Doncic ruled out (same goes for him)

Must-lose game if you don’t want pick to convey

[konkmv]

Must win game for us who believe that the pick must convey now

[hwangjini_1]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

thanks for the information above. would you be able to provide a link to the source? or if this is your take, share some of the reasoning and examples that took you to this conclusion.

thanks in advance.

[keevsnick]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots.

[KGs Knee]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots. A because this literally isn't football.

It seems to me that the main reason you cannot accept the fact that this pick is more valuable if it conveys this year is that you've convinced yourself it is going to be a top 5 pick in 2021.  Sure, there's a chance it might be, but that chance is highly unpredictable right now, and given that it could very reasonably end up worse, a top 10 pick now is just the smarter play (as if it was actually a choice).

The small chance it might be a top 5 pick in a future draft isn't worth more than the guarantee of a top 10 pick now.  NBA GM's don't think this way, even if you think they should.

[CptZoogs]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots. A because this literally isn't football.

It seems to me that the main reason you cannot accept the fact that this pick is more valuable if it conveys this year is that you've convinced yourself it is going to be a top 5 pick in 2021.  Sure, there's a chance it might be, but that chance is highly unpredictable right now, and given that it could very reasonably end up worse, a top 10 pick now is just the smarter play (as if it was actually a choice).

The small chance it might be a top 5 pick in a future draft isn't worth more than the guarantee of a top 10 pick now.  NBA GM's don't think this way, even if you think they should.

It’s tough because any discussion of value comes down to the buyer’s assessment.  Everything is worth precisely what someone is willing to pay for it.  Take Ainge and the lakers/kings pick.  He put less value on a lottery pick outside of the top 5 after the impending season than he put on a kings pick two years down the road.  That was his assessment at the time.  In hindsight, the lakers pick at 10 last year turned out better than the kings pick will this year (in all likelihood)

[MichiganAdam]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

JUst my take. 
Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

thanks for the information above. would you be able to provide a link to the source? or if this is your take, share some of the reasoning and examples that took you to this conclusion.

thanks in advance.

[jpotter33]

To me it seems clear that it would benefit us more if the pick did not convey this year. I see the argument that it could potentially be worse either next year or the year after so take the sure thing now, but does anyone really believe that’s happening? Does Memphis look primed to improve in any way that makes this likely?

I don’t see it. In fact, their motivations for wanting the pick to convey this year seem to prove that fact, as they’re looking to rebuild and tank in the coming years and don’t want to have to owe us a higher pick at that point. Hell, the allure of having a potential unprotected first round pick in 2021 alone seems to be more beneficial than number 9 this year, as, come on, we all know that we’re gauging the value of this pick with respect to the Davis trade possibility.

All that being said - one value that getting the pick this year would have is that it would greatly increase our ability to trade up into the top 4-6 of the draft by packing the Memphis, Sacramento, and LAC picks, especially if Atlanta gets Dallas’ pick, too. Adding another top-5 pick of NOLA’s choosing alongside Tatum would help the value of the trade quite a bit.

[keevsnick]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots. A because this literally isn't football.

It seems to me that the main reason you cannot accept the fact that this pick is more valuable if it conveys this year is that you've convinced yourself it is going to be a top 5 pick in 2021.  Sure, there's a chance it might be, but that chance is highly unpredictable right now, and given that it could very reasonably end up worse, a top 10 pick now is just the smarter play (as if it was actually a choice).

The small chance it might be a top 5 pick in a future draft isn't worth more than the guarantee of a top 10 pick now.  NBA GM's don't think this way, even if you think they should.

On the contrary, I fully recognize that the odds of a top five pick are lower than not. I just think the downside is very low. The grizz aren't making the playoffs the next two years, so worse case we get thev 13th or 14th puck in 2021. The loss of 4-5 spots at the back of the lottery us far less value than the gain of 4-8 spots at the top. Thus even if you believe the top5 outcome is unlikely, it's still the better value play. Winning takes risk. It's a risk. But since top draft picks are more likely to be the 1A type guy you need to win it all you should chase those players whenever you have the chance.

As for your assertion that most GMs take the sure thing I disagree. Hell take the 76ers celtics trade for example. They swapped Tatum/ fultz and acquired a future pick. That pick was the LA 18 pick tha at first was reversed protect to only concert at 2-5 I believe. Ainge could have  accepted a lighter protection, say converting at 2-12 or 2-14 to guarantee a pick a year earlier that would have ended up at ten. Instead the 2-5 protection was designed to give us two shots at a pick in the top 5 of the lottery. Ainge was willing to gamble on the SAC pick being a top 5 type pick and take the risk it might end up later than take a sure fire pick in the 6-14 range. He lost the gamble, but it was still the right move.  I think we all agree he's a smart gm.

[Silky]

totally disagree.  9th guaranteed is equal to potential top 5 in 2 years at the very least.  Really comes down to strength of the respective drafts and contending curve of your team.  If you have 1 missing piece now to contend versus long term goal of building from where your team is now.  Kings scenario is just as likely if not more so than a team tanking to get a top pick they won't be receiving.  Too many teams tank...a team that gave up the pick will not be.

Except that whether a team has its pick or not doesn't usually make all that much difference in terms of how good they are. We just saw this with the nets, they had every incentive not to be a top 5 bad team and yet still gave us two #3 overall picks. Everybody hold up the kings as an example, but they lucked into it, it all came down to Fox making a leap that very few saw coming, he was terrible his rookie year. 

The Grizz are is that sort of boat, they are a mess this year and wnat to trade their only really good player while he still has some value. So lets play it out. Lets say the grizz can't get out of the top eight and get the 7th or 8th pick this year, that likely not a game changer in a below average draft. Then they have to decide whether they trade or keep Conley. If they trade him theres a good chance they are bottom six next year, and then the climb becomes unprotected. Even if they draft a really good player its gonna be a rookie, and with flattened lottery odds you no longer need an absolute bottom 5 team for a very good shot at a top five pick. If they keep Conley then he gets older, risks an injury, and loses value meanwhile they is still no guarantee for them that they'd convey the pick next year, especially given the chance he gets hurt and they still stink. This is why they wnat the pick to convey this year, its gonna be hard for them to rebuild if they have a threat of both being awful and conveying a good pick to us.

Again, this of it this way. The worst but still plausible outcome is the Kings situation where the Grizz  give us the 13th or 14th pick either next year or in 2021, that does lose us a couple spots but this draft isnt great and in that area of the draft losing 4 spots isnt a huge drop of in value. And its probably better all else being equal to space out the picks anyway if we are gonna keep them. The best but still plausible outcome is a top five pick in 2021. The value gained between the 9 and say 3rd pick, vs the value lost in 9th to 14th is so much greater that even if you think the overall chance we get the 3rd pick is low, its still the better value play.

I look at it sort of like football.  Yeah I know this isn't football, but to trade a pick into the next year is worth a round+.  A 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year.  A 1st this year is worth a first next year plus a 2nd this year.  In the NBA one would think the loss of a year is worth at least 5-10 draft slots.  10th this year is worth a top 5 next year.  Now strength of draft is VERY important in the NBA.  I understand.  Teams want to get better NOW to increase their revenue.  Waiting is expensive.  76ers did something very different than usual with all of their "red shirting" to extend their high picks, and striking out on many of them...'

   

Only problem with this theory is it's not accurate. Let's say we had the 9th pick this year. Wod you trade it for the 1st next year? Yes, you would. Literally everybody would. Same goes for the 2nd, 3rd 4th and 5th picks. You probably have to get down to the 6th pick, at earliest, before the idea of having to wait a year even makes you think about it. The value of top picks is so high relative to mid or late lottery picks, and the artificial constraint of only playing five guys at once so important that a loss of a year itself IS NOT worth 5-10 slots. A because this literally isn't football.

It seems to me that the main reason you cannot accept the fact that this pick is more valuable if it conveys this year is that you've convinced yourself it is going to be a top 5 pick in 2021.  Sure, there's a chance it might be, but that chance is highly unpredictable right now, and given that it could very reasonably end up worse, a top 10 pick now is just the smarter play (as if it was actually a choice).

The small chance it might be a top 5 pick in a future draft isn't worth more than the guarantee of a top 10 pick now.  NBA GM's don't think this way, even if you think they should.

On the contrary, I fully recognize that the odds of a top five pick are lower than not. I just think the downside is very low. The grizz aren't making the playoffs the next two years, so worse case we get thev 13th or 14th puck in 2021. The loss of 4-5 spots at the back of the lottery us far less value than the gain of 4-8 spots at the top. Thus even if you believe the top5 outcome is unlikely, it's still the better value play. Winning takes risk. It's a risk. But since top draft picks are more likely to be the 1A type guy you need to win it all you should chase those players whenever you have the chance.

As for your assertion that most GMs take the sure thing I disagree. Hell take the 76ers celtics trade for example. They swapped Tatum/ fultz and acquired a future pick. That pick was the LA 18 pick tha at first was reversed protect to only concert at 2-7 I believe. Ainge could have  accepted a lighter protection, say converting at 2-12 or 2-14 to guarantee a pick a year earlier that would have ended up at ten. Instead the 2-5 protection was designed to give us two shots at a pick in the top 5 of the lottery. Ainge was willing to gamble on the SAC pick being a top 5-7 type pick and take the risk it might end up later than take a sure fire pick in the 6-14 range. He lost the gamble, but it was still the right move.  I think we all agree he's a smart gm.

Next season the memphis pick is top 6 protected. So odds are if it parlays next season pick will be about the same.....in a much weaker draft.

So really the hope you are talking about is that in 2 years time the pick is 4 or 5 spots higher

Waiting 2 years, for a potential 4 or 5 spots, in a completely unknow draft.

Doesnt seem like a good wait to me.

[A Future of Stevens]

But outside of the top few picks this draft is widely considered the weakest since 2013. Granted it's not an exact science, and posters tend to fall in love with prospects this time of year, but if we got the 9th pick next year, we'd theoretically have the same pick in a better draft.

[rondofan1255]

At the time, 2013 like many drafts was panned (2011 and 2009 weren’t all that hyped either, etc.)

However,

10 McCollum 12 Steven Adams 17 Schroder 27 Gobert

All picked in the C’s likely 2019 range