Author Topic: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?  (Read 10026 times)

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What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« on: November 14, 2015, 11:05:16 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Here's the TL;DR up front:  Orlando's two best prospects with the most long-term potential are currently on their bench... and the 5 guys starting over them are all quality young players/assets as well. 

I'm intrigued by the Magic.  They are loaded with quality individual young pieces, but have a mediocre record.   I'm wondering what people think will end up happening there.  First, let's take a look at the players I'm talking about.

PG - Elfrid Payton - Some fans love this guy.  He's possibly the second coming of Rondo.  By that, I mean he's probably capable of putting up huge stats if he dominates the ball, but the kid can't shoot.  He's 21 years old... averaged 9 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and a couple steals last year in 30mpg.  His rookie per-36 numbers were pretty similar to Rondo in his prime (remember that Rondo was playing 37-42 minutes per night and dominating the ball).   Seems without a shot, he'd struggle in an offense that doesn't require the ball to flow through him. 

PG/Undersized SG - Victor Oladipo - 23 years old - 6'4 210 pounds. Seen as the young star of the team.  Optimists call him the next D-Wade.  To me he seems more like the next Kemba Walker.  He's shooting 38%/26% from three and controls the ball perhaps a bit more than he should.  Good numbers last year of 18 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds and 1.7 steals on 44%/34%/82% shooting.  He's struggled a bit so far this year... maybe he breaks out... maybe not.  I personally wouldn't buy Oladipo stock right now.  Some Orlando fans seem him as the cancer of the team holding them back.  I wouldn't be entirely shocked to see Oladipo as the odd man out based on the rest of the roster.

SG/SF - Evan Fournier - 23 years old 6'7 205 pounds.   WHat's up with this kid?  Is he a long-term starter?  I thought this was a fluke, but he had solid numbers last year (12 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists on 44%/38%/73% shooting).  This year he's looking fantastic... 19 points, 4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.2 steals 46%/38%/79%.   Some Orlando fans are p---ed he's starting over Aaron Gordon, but how can you argue with those stats.  He's leading the team in scoring early on and doing it efficiently.  Coach Skiles giving him 38mpg seems a bit extreme, but he obviously likes the kid.  Another Khris Middleton type? 

SF - Tobias Harris - 23 years old 6'9 235 pounds.   A quality young player that a lot of teams (Boston included) wanted this offseason.  Orlando locked him up for 4 years 64 mil, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see him traded (perhaps even to Boston).  He got paid, the team got some leverage, but I'm not sure Orlando is his final destination.   There's no hint of a potential Harris trade from the Orlando fan community, though.  They seem to really like the guy.  Last year:  17 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal on 47%/36%/79% shooting.   This year it's been more of the same (15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists), though his minutes are down a bit to 32mpg.

C - Nikola Vucevic - 25 years old 7 feet 260 pounds.   19 points, 11 rebounds and 2 asissts last year on 52%/75% shooting.   Ths year, more of the same (16.1 points, 8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2 blocks).    He's a quality young center, though his defense is a bit limited.  Does that make him an Enes Kanter type who would come off the bench on a team that valued defense?  He's got a 4 year 48 million dollar contract and seems like the ideal centerpiece of a trade for Cousins if Sac makes him available. 

... then off the bench they have

SG/SF - Mario Hezonja -  20 years old 6'8 218 pounds.  I don't know much about this kid, but some people rave about him.  He was the #5 pick.  Bill SImmons is convinced he's a Rookie of the Year candidate, but I don't see where his minutes will come from this year.   He hasn't had much of an opportunity yet and is obviously still making the transition to the NBA.  14mpg only averaging 5ppg. Last 5 games he's showed brief glimpses... 7 points on 41%/39%/100% shooting in 14mpg.   

SF/PF - Aaron Gordon - 20 years old 6'9 220 pounds.   Orlando fans are livid he's not starting.  He looked vastly improved this summer, dominated summer league, and has been fantastic in the minutes he's played this year.  Per-36 numbers of 16 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks.   Second highest PER on the team behind Vucevic.  Does he slot in as a PF?  A SF?  I think he could end up being the best player on that entire team.  He'll inevitably start... but despite the anguish of Magic fans, who would you bench for him right now?  Would you move FOurnier to the bench while he's playing this well?   


So what do you think happens there?  Gordon/Hezonja are just kids.  I mean, Gordon just turned 20 a couple months ago.  They will likely continue to come off the bench for now and then maybe at some point if one of them plays into the starting lineup you'll just see one of the starters end up on the bench... similar to what might be happening with Avery Bradley here despite him getting paid. 

I could also definitely see someone like ELfrid Payton lose his starting role.   A lineup of PG - Oladipo, SG - Fournier, SF - Harris, PF - Gordon, C - Vucevic makes some sense...   Alternatively, I wouldn't be totally stunned to see Oladipo end up in the 6th man "microwave" role. 

And of course, I could definitely see a trade made.  Someone like Harris could be moved for future pick assets if Orlando doesn't want to pay him long-term.    And it seems to me if Cousins ends up on the trading block, Orlando is an ideal trade partner.  Vucevic + another player would make a lot of sense.  Vlade/Vivek and the Kings don't seem like the the types that would move their star for the unknown of draft picks... they'd want established talent and Vucevic is a fine starting point.   If ORlando moved 2 or 3 for 1, they'd upgrade to a superstar center and probably kill two birds with one stone by opening up roster spots for one or two of their stud prospects.

What do you think happens there?

Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2015, 11:14:52 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I don't see any one piece here that (a) George Karl would go ga-ga for or (b) is a really top shelf A+ asset.

My instinct is that whoever trades for Cousins will need one of those two things.

Also I'd think that Orlando would hesitate before trading for another moody, willful center who will probably just leave them in a couple years for nothing.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2015, 11:16:08 PM »

Offline max215

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The Magic just have no need for Boogie. Also, I don't see a small market team giving up on potentially 3-7 years of team control for 2 years of Boogie.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2015, 11:17:35 PM »

Offline max215

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I don't see any one piece here that (a) George Karl would go ga-ga for or (b) is a really top shelf A+ asset.

My instinct is that whoever trades for Cousins will need one of those two things.

Also I'd think that Orlando would hesitate before trading for another moody, willful center who will probably just leave them in a couple years for nothing.

I'm starting to buy into the idea that if they trade Boogie, they'll pull a Deron Williams, firing the coach and trading the star.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2015, 11:20:19 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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I don't see Boogie as an option for them, and quite honestly I think the C's are by far the best suitor for a Cousins trade right now (given the Sixers already loaded frontcourt).

I would think they'd aim for the extension class that just went through. Some more established guys like Beal or Barnes might be better for them.

With where they're at right now, I just don't see them being able to land a disgruntled star given that there are other situations (like us) with more assets and a better basketball situation.

EDIT: And I think this is a similar situation that the Sixers will run into in the next year or two, though they have higher top-end talent than Orlando. There's just going to be too many good players to develop, but not being a very good team and having the league know your issues, you're going to have trouble with teams playing hardball or stars not wanting to go to teams that just have a losing culture or no shot of winning any time soon.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2015, 11:21:21 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I don't see any one piece here that (a) George Karl would go ga-ga for or (b) is a really top shelf A+ asset.

My instinct is that whoever trades for Cousins will need one of those two things.

Also I'd think that Orlando would hesitate before trading for another moody, willful center who will probably just leave them in a couple years for nothing.
So maybe Aaron Gordon would be the centerpiece... since I see Marcus Smart as Boston's best asset and I rank Gordon above him.   

Like I said in the other thread, though... people are acting like the Brooklyn theoretical top 5 pick is our magic asset.   What has more trade value right now...  that Brooklyn pick that may or may not end up top 5... or Mario Hezonja (literally the #5 pick this year).   I'd say Hezonja.   Are you telling me Boston could beat an offer of Vucevic + Hezonja for Cousins?

Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2015, 11:39:36 PM »

Offline Hemingway

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we could beat that offer if we wanted to.

Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2015, 11:41:09 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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we could beat that offer if we wanted to.
Then I suggest we trade for Vucevic and Mario straight away. 

Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2015, 12:05:31 AM »

Offline D Dub

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AB, Smart, Young, choice of Sully/Kelly +
BK 2016 first
DA 2016 first
Ph 2016 second
BK 2018 first


Isnt that better than Vuc & Hejonga? 
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2015, 12:26:50 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Because the last time Orlando had a volatile star big man it worked so well for them.  Can't see them wanting to give up the farm for Cousins.  It's not how they've been building their team.

Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2015, 01:17:36 AM »

Offline chambers

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Thing is that none of these guys has true superstar potential. Their best bets at All Stars are probably Heznojia (once he can play NBA level defense) and Aaron Gordon. But what's Gordon's ceiling? Maybe Iguadala level?

If there was some kind of deal made, it would have to revolve around getting Harris, Gordon and one of Oladipo/Heznojia/Fournier to put next to Cauley Stein.

Now that would be an excellent return if Boogie is on his way out- and the only way we can compete with a package like that without sending out Smart is by getting a top 3 pick and sending out something like:
-Brooklyn pick 2016 (lets say #2 or #3)
-Dallas pick 2016 (#9 or #10?)
-RJ Hunter
-Terry Rozier

It all rides on that Brooklyn pick but yeah, Orlando do have a serious treasure chest of very solid assets. I wouldn't say any of them are elite, and I'd probably prefer the Bucks treasure chest over Orlando's.
I think the Bucks are the one team that could make a godfather offer to get Cousins- but perhaps they would rather keep their young core in tact.

The Lakers are probably the other biggest potential trade partner with something like Randle+their 2016 pick(top 5)+ Clarkson

Rob Hennigan is a brilliant GM and he's got some serious trade assets under his belt.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2015, 01:25:47 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Quote from: LarBrd33
Are you telling me Boston could beat an offer of Vucevic + Hezonja for Cousins?

Vucevic makes a bunch of money and he's a little bit of an odd fit in the modern NBA.   Hezonja is yet to show much at the NBA level.

Rebuilding teams love picks. They like to take THEIR guy.


So yes, I do think the Celts could beat the magic with an offer centered around the Nets pick, provided there's a clearer sense of where the pick will land, ie top 5.

All of that said, I think the best offer to Sacramento would have a young star going back their way.

This is why the Wizards with an offer of Beal and Porter plus filler really seems like the best plausible offer, to me.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2015, 01:34:58 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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Thing is that none of these guys has true superstar potential. Their best bets at All Stars are probably Heznojia (once he can play NBA level defense) and Aaron Gordon. But what's Gordon's ceiling? Maybe Iguadala level?

If there was some kind of deal made, it would have to revolve around getting Harris, Gordon and one of Oladipo/Heznojia/Fournier to put next to Cauley Stein.

Now that would be an excellent return if Boogie is on his way out- and the only way we can compete with a package like that without sending out Smart is by getting a top 3 pick and sending out something like:
-Brooklyn pick 2016 (lets say #2 or #3)
-Dallas pick 2016 (#9 or #10?)
-RJ Hunter
-Terry Rozier

It all rides on that Brooklyn pick but yeah, Orlando do have a serious treasure chest of very solid assets. I wouldn't say any of them are elite, and I'd probably prefer the Bucks treasure chest over Orlando's.
I think the Bucks are the one team that could make a godfather offer to get Cousins- but perhaps they would rather keep their young core in tact.

The Lakers are probably the other biggest potential trade partner with something like Randle+their 2016 pick(top 5)+ Clarkson

Rob Hennigan is a brilliant GM and he's got some serious trade assets under his belt.

Three things hinder the Lakers trade, in my opinion. First, Randle is not an ideal fit offensively next to WCS at all. He's not a shooter at all, so there's virtually no spacing between those two. Second, the Lakers only keep that pick if it's top-three this year, and with Kobe in the lineup in probably his last year, I'm not sure that they're going to tank hard enough to be in that top-three. Third, I think they'd much prefer to send Boogie East than to another team in their own division.

The Bucks are an interesting proposal. What would you think about trading Sacramento if you were them? Jabari? The Greek Freak? You'd almost have to include Monroe in the deal, because he's not an ideal fit at all next to Boogie. Also, do they have any substantial picks to trade? I'm just not sure if they have enough to trade for him without gutting the roster.
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Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2015, 01:38:29 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Quote from: LarBrd33
Are you telling me Boston could beat an offer of Vucevic + Hezonja for Cousins?

Vucevic makes a bunch of money and he's a little bit of an odd fit in the modern NBA.   Hezonja is yet to show much at the NBA level.

Rebuilding teams love picks. They like to take THEIR guy.


So yes, I do think the Celts could beat the magic with an offer centered around the Nets pick, provided there's a clearer sense of where the pick will land, ie top 5.

All of that said, I think the best offer to Sacramento would have a young star going back their way.

This is why the Wizards with an offer of Beal and Porter plus filler really seems like the best plausible offer, to me.
FIrst, I don't think Vivek/Vlade think they are "rebuilding".  If they are forced to move Cousins, my guess is they'll want talent back... not draft picks.

Second, our draft picks aren't as valuable as people think.  If we could have traded a dozen of those late 1sts we own to move up and take Hezonja/Winslow, we would have. 

All this could change if Brooklyn continues to struggle and we end up drafting Ben Simmons.   Ben Simmons + Marcus SMart might beat an offer of Vucevic and Mario.

Re: What do you think happens in Orlando? Frontrunner for Cousins?
« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2015, 02:38:06 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Three things hinder the Lakers trade, in my opinion. First, Randle is not an ideal fit offensively next to WCS at all. He's not a shooter at all, so there's virtually no spacing between those two. Second, the Lakers only keep that pick if it's top-three this year, and with Kobe in the lineup in probably his last year, I'm not sure that they're going to tank hard enough to be in that top-three. Third, I think they'd much prefer to send Boogie East than to another team in their own division.

Having Kobe Bryant in your lineup is a great way to tank hard without appearing to tank.
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