Fwiw, all three of those assets (Gordon, Hezonja, Smart) have more trade value than the Nets pick at this point.
For a seemingly intelligent guy who apparently puts some thought into his posts, you throw out some of the most nonsensical stuff. There isn't a competent GM in the league who would take any of those players over an unprotected 1st round pick that looks destined for the upper reaches of the lottery. Please name the team that would rather have one of those players than the Nets pick.
As for the players, the better teams would pick Smart because he's more likely to contribute to wins now. The worse teams would pick Gordon for the higher upside. Either would go before Hezonja.
Mike
So I take it you'd trade any one of those guys for the unprotected Pelicans or Lakers picks, because those are both even with the Brooklyn pick right now...
Yeah, I get Ben Simmons is the gem here, but if the season ended today that Brooklyn pick would have the 3rd best odds in the draft... which means it could fall anywhere from 1-6 with the highest probability of landing 5th. You'd rather have a pick with the most likely odds of ending 5th than having Gordon, Mario or Smart? Who you taking with that gem of a pick? Dragan Bender?... Jamal Murray? ... And of course all this is based on the idea that the pick remains as juicy as it is over the remaining 70+ games of the season. That seems like a bad bet to me. Far better with any one of those prospects than a pick that still has a shot (though as remote as it may seem) to end up late lotto.
You're inconsistency amazes me LB. For a guy that used to be so into tanking as the best solution for getting talent to rebuild with and so willing to put your faith in ping pong balls for years, to suddenly be arguing that the better bet, meaning as a percentage of chance, of getting a better talent than three guys that were chosen 4,5, and 6 in their drafts is slim because of ping pong balls and because the Nets might miraculously become a team with the tenth worst record in the league seems fairly hypocritical.
This is a funny thread, because on one hand I feel the need to defend Smart's trade value when compared to an uncertain draft pick... while at the same time acknowledging that there are better assets out there. You call it inconsistency and hypocritical. I think it's a misunderstanding.
I'm a Celtic fan. I've never swayed from the desire to see this team be the best it possibly can. For the record, I'm one of the biggest Ainge fans here. That dude gets it. I was fully in support of tanking two years ago. I was possibly the first person on that bangwagon and it was initially met with a lot of anger. Inevitably, everyone eventually saw what I did. I saw 8 potential gems in that draft... it was a year that made a lot of sense to tank in since you weren't just going after a single player. Smart was one of the 8 guys I liked. We got him. Today, he's clearly our best asset. Is there any Celtic fan out there who regrets tanking two years ago at this point? I sincerely doubt it.
But as good as Smart is, I'm not going to ignore that there are better assets out there. I've said multiple times that he's a B- asset in a sea of C's and D's on this team. He's the best asset here, but not the best asset in the league. He's in no way untouchable. There are clearly guys you'd move him for... whether it be an A+ asset like the Curry's, Durant's and Davis's of the world... an A- asset like the Lillard's or George's of the world... or a B+ asset (with A+ potential) like the Towns' and Wiggins' of the world...
So we're talking about this Brooklyn pick 10 games into the season. It's tied with the Pelicans pick. Granted, it's probably a better bet that the Pelicans get it together than the Nets, but the fact those teams are tied is a reflection of just how much stock you should put into 10 games. Even if we pretended like the Nets pick was a lock to be #1 projected, that would leave it with a 25% chance at #1 and a 36% chance at #4... and this point, it's a bottom 3 pick with the most likely odds of landing 5th. So even if we were to say the season ends today, you're still looking at a pick that's far more likely to net you a Dragan Bender than a Ben Simmons (since there's a good chance it doesn't even end up in the top 5). Truthfully, I don't know a lot about Ben Simmons, but let's acknowledge that he's a Towns/Wiggins B+ asset. Sure, I'd trade Smart for that... but as much as we want, that Brooklyn pick in no way equals Ben Simmons right now. How deep is this draft? What's sitting at 5 (or later) for us?... if you're more likely to end up with a C+ asset, do you still take that gamble? Seems like a bad bet. And this of course ignores the fact that there are 72 games left in the season and pretty much anything can happen (they are 8 games under .500... we were 14 games under .500 last year and made the playoffs... Brooklyn themselves were 10 games under .500 two years ago and finished with 44 wins). Yes, it's more likely for the Pelicans to dig out of the ditch, but I looked it up and there's still a 19% probability that Brooklyn makes the playoffs (in which the pick would be a lock to finish outside the top 14). You factor in that and you're looking at even more remote odds that the pick lands you Ben Simmons.
Side note, nick... your comment: "Sorry to break it to you but Simmons, Labissieri, Brown and Ingram absolutely have higher ceilings than do Gordon, Smart and Hezonja."... I actually appreciate you breaking that to me. In the CB Points league I own the clear #2 and #3 projected picks in the 2016 draft... this info will be very useful to me since I've tried, and failed, to trade one of those picks for Smart or Hezonja.
Now I'm sure one of my fans will take something I said out of context and use it as their forum signature (though I have to admit that practice has a different connotation where I come from... traditionally in my country of Philorlandaminnadelphia, making another man's quote your signature on an internet forum profile is seen as an offering that's immediately followed by a ceremonial dance around an open flame, the drinking of spirits, and the swapping of daughters), but I'm saying that right now, Gordon, Hezonja and Smart are more valuable than the Brooklyn, Laker or Pelican 2016 pick. There's just too much uncertainty. Granted, if you ask me again in April, I might have a dramatically different opinion. Sure if that pick ends up being Ben Simmons, I'd probably say it's more valuable than Smart... or maybe not... if Smart keeps playing the way he played tonight, all bets are off. That's the thing, these things are fluid. Everyone here changes their opinions daily. Sports.
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