Yes or No? Marcus Smart Our Next Superstar?

[LarBrd33]

You guys are funny.  It's like you've never heard of Summer league before.   Joe Forte won Summer league MVP one year.  Jerryd Bayless averaged 30.3 points in 2008.  Anthony Randolph averaged 26.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 2.3 steals and 3 blocks in 2009.  Reggie Williams averaged 22.6 points in 2010.   Josh Selby avearged 24.2 points, 3.2 assists and 2.4 steals in 2012.  Jeffery Taylor averaged 20.3 points and 1.8 steals in 2013.    Glen Rice Jr dominated summer league last year... avearging 25 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.5 steals

It's freakin summer league, man.  And we've seen Smart play two games.  In half those games, he shot 30%. 

So a year ago, Smart averaged 14.8 points, 4.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2 steals in 5 summerleague game (while shooting a horrid 29% and 26% from three), but he was very productive. 

So that gives you a baseline of Smart's summer league abilities.  He followed it up by averaging 6.8 points, 3.5 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.2 steals on 37%/35%/67% shooting over the first half of the season. 

Over the second half of the season, he showed mild improvement... averaging 9.1 points, 2.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals on 36%/32%/63%.   

For the season, he averaged 7.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.5 steals (which I've pointed out is similar to what Iman Shumpert did as a rookie... 9.5 points, 2.8 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 steals).

So fine... now let's look at his stats over 2 summer league games:  24 points, 7.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.5 steals.   Impressive... right up there with Glen Rice Jr last year. Hopefully he keeps it up.

So if his summer league stats last year (14.8/4.2/4.2/2) resulted in him averaging (7.8/3.1/3.3/1.5), we can take the stupid 2 game sample size thus far and guesstimate what Smart's NBA stats might be this season:  12.6 points, 5.5 assists, 3.4 assists and 1.9 steals.  Here's hoping he can shoot 40% this season.

Those stats are "fine".  And I'd be "fine" with those stats.  And considering he was a #6 pick, I truly hope he shows that kind of progress from last year. 

In Tony Allen's best season he averaged 11.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.5 steals... this would be better than that.  This would put Smart right up there in Rodney Stuckey territory (13.4 points, 4.9 assists, 3.5 rebounds 1.4 steals in year 2 with 44%/30%/80% shooting)... but it still falls short of what my initial expectations of Smart were.  I thought he'd be, at worst, Tyreke Evans.  Evans averaged 20.1 points, 5.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals as a rookie.   Evans is a fine player, but has never made an all-star team.

But you guys are reacting to two summer league games and already asking if Smart is going to be a superstar?  C'mon, man.  I'm not even sure he'll be an all-star.  If those projected stats pan out and he puts up 12.6 points, 5.5 assists, 3.4 assists and 1.9 steals next year, it would be worth celebrating... but I don't even know if that's a lock.

I mean... Aaron Gordon's summer league stats last year:  7.8 points, 5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0 steals, 0.4 blocks on  35% shooting and 0% from three.

A year later, Gordon is averaging 21.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.7 blocks on 50% shooting/50% from three.  Does this mean that Gordon is a lock to be the next hall of famer?  I mean... maybe?

Dante Exum averaged 7.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 steals with 30%/17%/64% shooting...  flash forward a year later and he's averaging 20 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds on 46%/20%/90% shooting.  Sure he's only played half as many games as Smart, but Utah should probably get ready to retire his number, right?

The real question is whether or not the progress we're seeing from Smart (assuming these big stats continue through the remainder of summer league) is a sign that Smart has improved since April 2015 when the NBA season ended.... or if it's a sign he's improved since July 2014 when he last played in Summer league.   He's spent a year playing in the NBA... he SHOULD be having a better summer league than last year.   But naturally, ya'll are gonna overreact and get angry when someone suggests he's still got a long way to go and may never get there.   

I like what I'm seeing from Smart.  I'm encouraged at the signs.  If he was having a disaster summer league like James Young, I'd be nervous.  He's clearly one of the best summer league performers so far this year... which is to be expected considering he was the 6th pick and this is his 2nd year playing in it.  It's a good thing.  This should help his trade value.  But I still doubt he'll ever make an all-star game.  And I still think his offensive game is limited.   He averaged 18, 5, 6 and 3 in College... it shouldn't come as a shock that he's one of the better players against garbage summer league competition.  Question is whether he can do it in the real league.   Last year, I was underwhelmed by his performance.   

[TheFlex]

Not unless you hold a broken leg against him. Randle's potential for playing in the NBA remains largely the same as it was drafted -- you contrast that against Smart's year in the league, and you determine where it goes from there. For example, Exum was drafted ahead of Smart based on that potential.

And before you say "he missed a year he's obviously damaged goods" I would suggest taking a look at Blake Griffin's perceived trade value after he lost a year to that knee injury.

edit: and again, before my stance is misconstrued -- I was all for drafting Smart with the #6 pick. I was not for drafting Randle. I am not playing favorites here.

Smart was drafted for his defense and fell because of questionable shooting range. He confirmed he has defensive potential and looked like a much better long range shooter his rookie season than what was reasonably expected.

Randle was drafted for his offensive potential in the post and fell because of concerns about chronic injury. He didn't get a chance to confirm the former because of the latter, an injury.

I'm not against giving Randle multiple chances, but it's flat out ridiculous to assert that any competent GM would entertain the notion of a 1-for-1 Smart/Randle swap.

[D.o.s.]

More or less ridiculous than asserting that Smart will be our next superstar because "the fans need hope" as your entire rationale?

[iadera]

According to his work ethic, I say YES!

[LarBrd33]

It's summer league. He should be dominating it.  Don't set yourself up to be disappointed.  We are seeing positive signs from smart, but we don't know if he can carry it over into the real league. As of right now I still see him as an offensively challenged defensive stud.  I'm seeing tiny hints of improvement, but how much of is it related to his progress over the past couple months and how much of it is related to a full season of playing NBA basketball?  We don't know if he's actually improved since the end of the year... The competition level is dramatically different in the NBA.

By that logic all top picks should dominate Summer League, meaning that the following players (who haven't thus far) have no offensive game: Towns, Russell, Okafor, Mudiay, Kaminsky, Winslow.

You forgot Julius Randle, another player LB insists is as valuable as Smart.

TP. I intended to mention him, I'll add him. Randle was quite bad in just about every way.

He played in the Summer League? How was he?

Randle's per minute summer league and preseason numbers last year were better than Smart's.   He's coming off a major injury.  Ainge almost picked Randle over Smart last year and in fact admitted that Randle was more talented, but we already had a bunch of PFs and Boston liked Smart's fire... we also needed Rondo insurance and Exum was already off the board... so the pick made sense.  We later tried trading Rondo for Randle.   Obviously Smart has more trade value than Randle right now considering the injury... but the comment people are taking out of context is that a year from now I'm not sure if I'd put money on Marcus Smart being more valuable than Randle. 

[D.o.s.]

What people taking comments out of context? On Celtics Blog?


STOP THE PRESSES

[LarBrd33]

Fwiw, Julius Randle looked ok out there today considering he's coming off an injury (11 points in 20 minutes... looking fluid).   Interesting to note that DeAngelo Russell and Karl Towns played ok, but the game was dominated by Zach LaVine (24 points) and 1st-Team All-Rookie Jordan Clarkson (23 points)...  Gee... that almost seems to back up my theory that returning to summer league after a year playing against NBA competition tends to result in better stats.  Who woulda thunk.

[knuckleballer]

Fwiw, Julius Randle looked ok out there today considering he's coming off an injury (10 points in 20 minutes... looking fluid).   Interesting to note that DeAngelo Russell and Karl Towns played ok, but the game was dominated by Zach LaVine (24 points) and Jordan Clarkson (23 points)...  Gee... that almost seems to back up my theory that returning to summer league after a year playing against NBA competition tends to result in better stats.  Who woulda thunk.

C'mon.  Randle was awful.  He scored 5 of his points in the last two minutes when the game was winding down.  He had one rebound, zero assists, and four turnovers.

Neither Clarkson nor Lavine had the impact on the game that Smart has had in his two games.

Coming into the Summer League, people were looking to see how Smart could run the offense and how well he could drive into the paint and score and draw fouls.  Has excelled in all of these things and you still won't give him credit.  Meanwhile you say Randle's performance was ok.   You are being very stubborn.

[TheFlex]

More or less ridiculous than asserting that Smart will be our next superstar because "the fans need hope" as your entire rationale?

Blatantly inaccurate understanding of my "entire rationale."

[GC003332]

No

[D.o.s.]

More or less ridiculous than asserting that Smart will be our next superstar because "the fans need hope" as your entire rationale?

Blatantly inaccurate understanding of my "entire rationale."

Considering I was working with:

Yes. The fans should have high hopes for him.

as your entire mission statement, I'm not so sure. Particularly considering the single word answer of "yes," complete with capitalization and a period, followed by a single explanation of "the fans should have high hopes" with no reason specified at all.

So,  you know, blatant misunderstandings can come from the interpretation but when the statement isn't couched in, well, anything, you're sort of leaving that open as a legitimate possibility, eh?

Regardless: why do you think the fans should have high hopes for Smart? Did your imaginary friend in the sky tell you they should? Did someone bribe you to post it? Were there threats of violence if  you didn't? What was your rationale for answering yes?

[LarBrd33]

Fwiw, Julius Randle looked ok out there today considering he's coming off an injury (10 points in 20 minutes... looking fluid).   Interesting to note that DeAngelo Russell and Karl Towns played ok, but the game was dominated by Zach LaVine (24 points) and Jordan Clarkson (23 points)...  Gee... that almost seems to back up my theory that returning to summer league after a year playing against NBA competition tends to result in better stats.  Who woulda thunk.

C'mon.  Randle was awful. 

I'm going to repeat myself one last time.  Randle's per-minute numbers in both summer league and preseason were better than Smart last year.  Ainge considered taking him over Smart in spite of the fact Rondo was likely out the door and we already had two young PF's in Olynyk and Sully.   Ainge admitted that Randle was more talented.  Ainge tried trading for Randle even after his injury.    I'm NOT suggesting that Randle is better than Smart right now.  Randle is coming off a BROKEN LEG and was just cleared for 5 on 5 drills a couple weeks ago.  But a year from now, I don't think it's a guarantee that Marcus Smart will be more valuable than Julius Randle.   Randle is a beast.  He's going to be a really good player in this league.   I had him above Smart on my board last year.  We'll see what happens.  Obviously, I hope Smart ends up vastly superior.  I'm not losing my mind over 2 summer league games after Smart spent a year in the NBA, though.  He's supposed to look better at this point. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

Everyone, STOP IT. Tired of this crap.

[knuckleballer]

Fwiw, Julius Randle looked ok out there today considering he's coming off an injury (10 points in 20 minutes... looking fluid).   Interesting to note that DeAngelo Russell and Karl Towns played ok, but the game was dominated by Zach LaVine (24 points) and Jordan Clarkson (23 points)...  Gee... that almost seems to back up my theory that returning to summer league after a year playing against NBA competition tends to result in better stats.  Who woulda thunk.

C'mon.  Randle was awful. 

I'm going to repeat myself one last time.  Randle's per-minute numbers in both summer league and preseason were better than Smart last year.  Ainge considered taking him over Smart in spite of the fact Rondo was likely out the door and we already had two young PF's in Olynyk and Sully.   Ainge admitted that Randle was more talented.  Ainge tried trading for Randle even after his injury.    I'm NOT suggesting that Randle is better than Smart right now.  Randle is coming off a BROKEN LEG and was just cleared for 5 on 5 drills a couple weeks ago.  But a year from now, I don't think it's a guarantee that Marcus Smart will be more valuable than Julius Randle.   Randle is a beast.  He's going to be a really good player in this league.   I had him above Smart on my board last year.  We'll see what happens.  Obviously, I hope Smart ends up vastly superior.  I'm not losing my mind over 2 summer league games after Smart spent a year in the NBA, though.  He's supposed to look better at this point.

There was no need to repeat yourself.  I read it the first time.  My points still stand.  You are being stubborn.  You were in favor of Randle and against Smart before the 2014 draft.  You are making excuses for Smart's strong performances and excuses for at least Randle's horrendous performance yesterday.  I can excuse Randle's one game after injury, but it's ok to give Smart his due credit and admit he's doing really well and is maybe perhaps better than you originally thought.

[knuckleballer]

Everyone, STOP IT. Tired of this crap.

Huh?