Rumor- C's dangling both 1st picks to move up

[Moranis]

So if we ended up missing the playoffs by a hair, we'd be in a lot better situation?

Our picks wouldn't have been much better (12 or 13), we would have known a lot less about what we have, and our players would have had less market value.

your last two points just don't seem very accurate to me.  Nothing happened in the sweep by Cleveland to alter Boston's view of its players nor to increase the market value of any players.  It isn't like we had a Lebron like performance from someone in the losing effort.  Everyone played pretty much like they have all year. 

And having the 12th or 13th pick could make a huge difference.  CNNSI has Willey Cauley-Stein going 12th and Myles Turner going 13th.  Both of those guys seem like potential difference making big men. 

[byennie]

If we missed the playoffs we likely would have been picking more like #10 or #11 (Indiana and Miami as it turned out).

[LooseCannon]

How would you feel if Ainge's modest goal is to move ahead of OKC their reported promise to snag Cameron Payne?

[PhoSita]

How would you feel if Ainge's modest goal is to move ahead of OKC their reported promise to snag Cameron Payne?

Wouldn't shock me. 

The Celts need a playmaking ball-handler to start next to Smart (witness how many minutes they gave to Evan Turner last year), and Payne could end up being a steal at the back of the lottery, though some models prefer Delon Wright, who might be available at #28.

[Moranis]

How would you feel if Ainge's modest goal is to move ahead of OKC their reported promise to snag Cameron Payne?

Be a horrible waste with Smart and Thomas.

[PhoSita]

How would you feel if Ainge's modest goal is to move ahead of OKC their reported promise to snag Cameron Payne?

Be a horrible waste with Smart and Thomas.

Not as much if you think of Payne as taking minutes from Turner and Bradley. 

Guess it depends on whether your think Isaiah Thomas or Smart can be the starting point guard for the team, or if you think Smart is better suited as a secondary ball-handler at the 2 and IT is better as a sixth man.

[LooseCannon]

How would you feel if Ainge's modest goal is to move ahead of OKC their reported promise to snag Cameron Payne?

Be a horrible waste with Smart and Thomas.

What if you were convinced that Payne had the most all-star potential out of any player likely to be drafted outside of the top ten?

[Denis998]

All of this pro tanking talk makes me sad. The only way that we would have continued to tank was not making the IT trade. Is the 16th pick and IT not better than the 9th pick? I feel the pro tankers out there would take 16th, IT and playoffs experience.

[Evantime34]

All of this pro tanking talk makes me sad. The only way that we would have continued to tank was not making the IT trade. Is the 16th pick and IT not better than the 9th pick? I feel the pro tankers out there would take 16th, IT and playoffs experience.

This is exactly how I feel. It's not simply a question of do you want to make the playoffs or not, it is would you rather make the playoffs with the roster we have or not made the playoffs with a worse roster.

[LGC88]

All of this pro tanking talk makes me sad. The only way that we would have continued to tank was not making the IT trade. Is the 16th pick and IT not better than the 9th pick? I feel the pro tankers out there would take 16th, IT and playoffs experience.

Exactly... but you are forgetting that pro tanker generally value the draft way too much and will believe that they will get a future star at #9. So they won't take your deal.
It's just pointless to argue with pro tanker, imo.

[LarBrd33]

So if we ended up missing the playoffs by a hair, we'd be in a lot better situation?

Our picks wouldn't have been much better (12 or 13), we would have known a lot less about what we have, and our players would have had less market value.

Come on... on March 15th with a month left in the season, the Hornets were 29-35 and the Celtics were 29-36.   Hornets were ahead of us.

The last month of the season is traditionally extended garbage time for the entire league.  Teams out of the race give reps to youth.  Teams locked into the playoffs rest their stars.   It's traditionally NBA bizarro-land.

Boston, due to Brad Stevens, finished the season 40-42 (pick 16).    Hornets, due to injuries to Jefferson and MKG, finished the season 33-49 (pick 9). 

You really think that last month (and subsequent sweep by the Cavs) had a dramatic impact on anyone's trade value or our understanding of our players?  I don't.

With the composition of Boston and Charlotte is very similar. Both are very young teams who will be able to painlessly return all impact players on their rosters.

As you said, Boston and Charlotte were in the same place before, as you put it "extended garbage time'.

During this Boston went on a huge run and Charlotte fell apart. Charlotte has 4x the top 10 talent as us and another top 10 pick on the way, but when people talk about rising young teams they dont mention Charlotte. they mention us.

As you said, we went on that run because of Brad and that is relevant. When the going got tough a lot of our players proved that they wont shy away from the moment. Charlotte on the other hand just quit.

We had injuries to IT, Sully, KO, and briefly AB but our team didnt quit and then come playoff time we faced a full strength cavs team and played them to 4 quasi competitive games.

back on March 15 I would have viewed charlotte as a team we should shoot for. Someone who if we could stay with for the rest of the season I would be happy. Instead we outplayed them. Now I would not trade positions with Charlotte.

Thus the last month was a success.

Charlotte also wanted very much to make the playoffs, they just failed miserably. They were not out to tank, hence the signings of big Al and Stephenson.

... and had Charlottes two best players not been injured down the stretch... and had Cleveland not let Boston win two games over the final week... and had Charlotte snuck into the playoffs while Boston missed out, would you have felt dramatically different about the talent on the Boston roster?  I wouldn't.

I still feel like we're overstating how much that little run impacted the trade value of our players.  I agree it put attention on Brad (a good thing) and hopefully helps convince free agents to come here... but it's not like someone is or isn't trading for Avery Bradley, Tyler Zeller or Evan Turner based on what happened over the final month.

[Moranis]

All of this pro tanking talk makes me sad. The only way that we would have continued to tank was not making the IT trade. Is the 16th pick and IT not better than the 9th pick? I feel the pro tankers out there would take 16th, IT and playoffs experience.

To be fair it was Thornton, future 1st, and moving from 16 to 11 for Thomas.  And if Boston trades up, which has been rumored, to say 12 by using 16 and 28, the trade looks even worse in that regard.

I like Thomas a lot.  He is Boston's best player, has a very reasonable contract, and I believe he should have been starting, but Boston potentially lost a lot to add him to a team that is no where near a contender and used actual assets to do it.

[Ilikesports17]

So if we ended up missing the playoffs by a hair, we'd be in a lot better situation?

Our picks wouldn't have been much better (12 or 13), we would have known a lot less about what we have, and our players would have had less market value.

Come on... on March 15th with a month left in the season, the Hornets were 29-35 and the Celtics were 29-36.   Hornets were ahead of us.

The last month of the season is traditionally extended garbage time for the entire league.  Teams out of the race give reps to youth.  Teams locked into the playoffs rest their stars.   It's traditionally NBA bizarro-land.

Boston, due to Brad Stevens, finished the season 40-42 (pick 16).    Hornets, due to injuries to Jefferson and MKG, finished the season 33-49 (pick 9). 

You really think that last month (and subsequent sweep by the Cavs) had a dramatic impact on anyone's trade value or our understanding of our players?  I don't.

With the composition of Boston and Charlotte is very similar. Both are very young teams who will be able to painlessly return all impact players on their rosters.

As you said, Boston and Charlotte were in the same place before, as you put it "extended garbage time'.

During this Boston went on a huge run and Charlotte fell apart. Charlotte has 4x the top 10 talent as us and another top 10 pick on the way, but when people talk about rising young teams they dont mention Charlotte. they mention us.

As you said, we went on that run because of Brad and that is relevant. When the going got tough a lot of our players proved that they wont shy away from the moment. Charlotte on the other hand just quit.

We had injuries to IT, Sully, KO, and briefly AB but our team didnt quit and then come playoff time we faced a full strength cavs team and played them to 4 quasi competitive games.

back on March 15 I would have viewed charlotte as a team we should shoot for. Someone who if we could stay with for the rest of the season I would be happy. Instead we outplayed them. Now I would not trade positions with Charlotte.

Thus the last month was a success.

Charlotte also wanted very much to make the playoffs, they just failed miserably. They were not out to tank, hence the signings of big Al and Stephenson.

... and had Charlottes two best players not been injured down the stretch... and had Cleveland not let Boston win two games over the final week... and had Charlotte snuck into the playoffs while Boston missed out, would you have felt dramatically different about the talent on the Boston roster?  I wouldn't.

I still feel like we're overstating how much that little run impacted the trade value of our players.  I agree it put attention on Brad (a good thing) and hopefully helps convince free agents to come here... but it's not like someone is or isn't trading for Avery Bradley, Tyler Zeller or Evan Turner based on what happened over the final month.

I think its not a big difference but the overall energy surrounding the Bobcats is pretty negative right now despite having a top pick coming up and a similar amount of under 25 talent. Whereas everyone around the league seems to be singing Bostons praises.

both teams battled injuries, thats the way it goes in the NBA. Also on another thread you were saying the Hornets are better of with Biyombo as opposed to big Al and if MKG is so valuable to a team than you should be a lot more excited about Marcus than you are because smart will almost surely be a better offensive player and could well be a better defender.

Theres something to be said for the team who steps up when it gets tough as opposed to the one who crumbles.

charlotte lost some good players and fell apart. We never gave up even when down 20 points to the Cavs with our leader Crowder hurt and Sully battling injury. We learned alot about the character of our guys. we learned that Smart and Sully are the kind of guys you want when it comes to it. that is valuable.

[Ilikesports17]

All of this pro tanking talk makes me sad. The only way that we would have continued to tank was not making the IT trade. Is the 16th pick and IT not better than the 9th pick? I feel the pro tankers out there would take 16th, IT and playoffs experience.

To be fair it was Thornton, future 1st, and moving from 16 to 11 for Thomas.  And if Boston trades up, which has been rumored, to say 12 by using 16 and 28, the trade looks even worse in that regard.

I like Thomas a lot.  He is Boston's best player, has a very reasonable contract, and I believe he should have been starting, but Boston potentially lost a lot to add him to a team that is no where near a contender and used actual assets to do it.

we lost  nothing. Marcus thornton is basically without value. The cleveland first will probably be 28. If IT4 was able to,  on his own, elevate us from pick 11 to 16 than he along with pick 16 is certainly worth more than pick 11 alone.

IT4 is our best ambassador right now. Because of him we were able to get into the playoffs and changed the team attitude. he made us a more attractive destination.

Look. Without IT4 we probably pick 11th. No one is excited about Brad or the Celtics and Jared Sullinger has no value at all. Id rather have IT4, 16, and all the excitement as opposed to 11, a late future first, and no excitement.

[mmmmm]

All of this pro tanking talk makes me sad. The only way that we would have continued to tank was not making the IT trade. Is the 16th pick and IT not better than the 9th pick? I feel the pro tankers out there would take 16th, IT and playoffs experience.

To be fair it was Thornton, future 1st, and moving from 16 to 11 for Thomas.  And if Boston trades up, which has been rumored, to say 12 by using 16 and 28, the trade looks even worse in that regard.

I like Thomas a lot.  He is Boston's best player, has a very reasonable contract, and I believe he should have been starting, but Boston potentially lost a lot to add him to a team that is no where near a contender and used actual assets to do it.

we lost  nothing. Marcus thornton is basically without value. The cleveland first will probably be 28. If IT4 was able to,  on his own, elevate us from pick 11 to 16 than he along with pick 16 is certainly worth more than pick 11 alone.

IT4 is our best ambassador right now. Because of him we were able to get into the playoffs and changed the team attitude. he made us a more attractive destination.

Look. Without IT4 we probably pick 11th. No one is excited about Brad or the Celtics and Jared Sullinger has no value at all. Id rather have IT4, 16, and all the excitement as opposed to 11, a late future first, and no excitement.

I concur.

The trade off isn't "making the playoffs" versus "4-5 spots higher on the pick ladder" (because basically we are talking about the difference between picking #16 and #11 at best).

The trade off is the value of

a) having control over IT4 (on a wonderful cheap contract) as well as rights on Jerebko & Datome and the 16th pick

versus

b) having the 11th or 12 pick and Cleveland's 2016 (which will likely be at the bottom of the first round).

In my opinion, the chances of the 11th pick in this draft being better than IT4 alone are not all that high.  Decent, but not high.  The chances of it being of higher value than the combination of IT4 and the 16th and those FA rights is pretty small.

I'm very glad Danny chose Door A.

Edit:  I also think people are underestimating just how important Sully's performance in that last playoff game was in re-establishing a lot of his lost value.  Not all of it, of course, but a lot.  If we don't go for the playoffs, then he likely stays on the sidelines all Spring and his value would be complete garbage right now.