Kelly Olynyk 2013-2014 predictions.

[Galeto]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

In the nba he will continue to shoot over shorter guys.

How many 7ft pf are there in the nba? He will shoot over zach randolph, david west, david lee , blake griffin etc.

I don't think he'll shoot over David West.  The few inches of height he has on West is dwarfed by the nearly 7 inches of length West has on Olynyk.  Players also don't just shoot over shorter defenders all that easily.  Take how well Haslam defended Duncan in the Finals.  Duncan had both massive height and length advantages but Haslam with whatever he had was able to make things very difficult for Duncan in the post.

It's extremely hard to score in the post.  I lament with everyone else about how there just aren't many post scorers in the league anymore but post defenses have become much more aggressive.  In the 80s and 90s, it's pretty shocking to see how easily defenders let their man catch the ball in the post.  Since a big part of post defense is what's done before the ball is caught in the post, that was a big factor in post scoring.  You have to be the cream of the crop to be able to consistently score in the post.  I'm not sure Olynyk has the length, strength and athleticism to be one of those players.  I certainly wouldn't project that based on what he did in college or summer league.

[Tr1boy]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

In the nba he will continue to shoot over shorter guys.

How many 7ft pf are there in the nba? He will shoot over zach randolph, david west, david lee , blake griffin etc.

I don't think he'll shoot over David West.  The few inches of height he has on West is dwarfed by the nearly 7 inches of length West has on Olynyk.  Players also don't just shoot over shorter defenders all that easily.  Take how well Haslam defended Duncan in the Finals.  Duncan had both massive height and length advantages but Haslam with whatever he had was able to make things very difficult for Duncan in the post.

It's extremely hard to score in the post.  I lament with everyone else about how there just aren't many post scorers in the league anymore but post defenses have become much more aggressive.  In the 80s and 90s, it's pretty shocking to see how easily defenders let their man catch the ball in the post.  Since a big part of post defense is what's done before the ball is caught in the post, that was a big factor in post scoring.  You have to be the cream of the crop to be able to consistently score in the post.  I'm not sure Olynyk has the length, strength and athleticism to be one of those players.  I certainly wouldn't project that based on what he did in college or summer league.

[Chris]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

In the nba he will continue to shoot over shorter guys.

How many 7ft pf are there in the nba? He will shoot over zach randolph, david west, david lee , blake griffin etc.

I don't think he'll shoot over David West.  The few inches of height he has on West is dwarfed by the nearly 7 inches of length West has on Olynyk.  Players also don't just shoot over shorter defenders all that easily.  Take how well Haslam defended Duncan in the Finals.  Duncan had both massive height and length advantages but Haslam with whatever he had was able to make things very difficult for Duncan in the post.

It's extremely hard to score in the post.  I lament with everyone else about how there just aren't many post scorers in the league anymore but post defenses have become much more aggressive.  In the 80s and 90s, it's pretty shocking to see how easily defenders let their man catch the ball in the post.  Since a big part of post defense is what's done before the ball is caught in the post, that was a big factor in post scoring.  You have to be the cream of the crop to be able to consistently score in the post.  I'm not sure Olynyk has the length, strength and athleticism to be one of those players.  I certainly wouldn't project that based on what he did in college or summer league.

Exactly.  There are very few players who can shoot the shots Olynyk was shooting in the summerleague, against NBA defenses.  Dirk is one.  Durant can do it, when covered by a smaller defender.  I am not sure if there are any more.  But there are plenty of other guys that would try, but would just get the shots blocked or bothered all the time.  And I am afraid Olynyk may be one of them.

Of course, he could make adjustments.  He will have to.  And maybe he will be able to find new ways to score.  But, until that happens, I think his offense will be basically open perimeter shots, and the occasional mismatch in the post. 

[Tr1boy]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

In the nba he will continue to shoot over shorter guys.

How many 7ft pf are there in the nba? He will shoot over zach randolph, david west, david lee , blake griffin etc.

I don't think he'll shoot over David West.  The few inches of height he has on West is dwarfed by the nearly 7 inches of length West has on Olynyk.  Players also don't just shoot over shorter defenders all that easily.  Take how well Haslam defended Duncan in the Finals.  Duncan had both massive height and length advantages but Haslam with whatever he had was able to make things very difficult for Duncan in the post.

It's extremely hard to score in the post.  I lament with everyone else about how there just aren't many post scorers in the league anymore but post defenses have become much more aggressive.  In the 80s and 90s, it's pretty shocking to see how easily defenders let their man catch the ball in the post.  Since a big part of post defense is what's done before the ball is caught in the post, that was a big factor in post scoring.  You have to be the cream of the crop to be able to consistently score in the post.  I'm not sure Olynyk has the length, strength and athleticism to be one of those players.  I certainly wouldn't project that based on what he did in college or summer league.

Duncan has no turnaround jump shot and he has been hesitant to shoot regular jump shots all of his career. The main weapon he has is a hook/bank shot near the basket. Haslem is younger and pretty strong, and didnt make it easy for him to get inside position.

It wont be easy for olynyk either against a vet like haslem. But he doesnt have to frequently try to score from the post, instead shoot mid range jumpers and if defenders press too tight, drive by them.

Olynyk in his first year will play more like brad miller, making damage from the perimeter 75 percent of the time imo. Second year with added strength , experience mix in more post moves

[Chris]

Olynyk in his first year will play more like brad miller, making damage from the perimeter 85 percent of the time imo. Second year with added strength , experience mix in more post moves

I like the Brad Miller comparison offensively, although Miller was MUCH stronger.  People forget that he was actually an incredibly tough, physical player, and a very good rebounder.  Olynyk will never be like that.

But yes, his offense will probably be similar to Miller's in the high post.  He can shoot over smaller guys, or make teams pay for cheating off him.  He can drive against slower centers (although Olynyk won't likely have that luxury much, because he won't be able to defend those guys, and will likely be matched up more on quicker PFs), and can make good passes. 

But, without the toughness and rebounding, I am not sure that is a very special player.   

[Celtics18]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

In the nba he will continue to shoot over shorter guys.

How many 7ft pf are there in the nba? He will shoot over zach randolph, david west, david lee , blake griffin etc.

I don't think he'll shoot over David West.  The few inches of height he has on West is dwarfed by the nearly 7 inches of length West has on Olynyk.  Players also don't just shoot over shorter defenders all that easily.  Take how well Haslam defended Duncan in the Finals.  Duncan had both massive height and length advantages but Haslam with whatever he had was able to make things very difficult for Duncan in the post.

It's extremely hard to score in the post.  I lament with everyone else about how there just aren't many post scorers in the league anymore but post defenses have become much more aggressive.  In the 80s and 90s, it's pretty shocking to see how easily defenders let their man catch the ball in the post.  Since a big part of post defense is what's done before the ball is caught in the post, that was a big factor in post scoring.  You have to be the cream of the crop to be able to consistently score in the post.  I'm not sure Olynyk has the length, strength and athleticism to be one of those players.  I certainly wouldn't project that based on what he did in college or summer league.

Exactly.  There are very few players who can shoot the shots Olynyk was shooting in the summerleague, against NBA defenses.  Dirk is one.  Durant can do it, when covered by a smaller defender.  I am not sure if there are any more.  But there are plenty of other guys that would try, but would just get the shots blocked or bothered all the time.  And I am afraid Olynyk may be one of them.

Of course, he could make adjustments.  He will have to.  And maybe he will be able to find new ways to score.  But, until that happens, I think his offense will be basically open perimeter shots, and the occasional mismatch in the post.

And, he'll undoubtedly get a lot of open jump shots off the pick and pop in the NBA.  The thing that I really like about Olynyk, though, is that he looks like much more than just a perimeter jump shooter.  I really like his ball handling ability, feel for the game, and ability to run the floor.  He's not athletic, but he seems extremely well co-ordinated and he moves fluidly.

I realize there are legitimate concerns, but I also think he's got a lot more going for him than just the ability to hit an occasional open jump shot. 

[Smitty77]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

I really love how you down play his summer league play.  Does this mean ANYTHING to you Chris??

http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

You act like KO will NOT have a height advantage on MOST other PF's in the NBA!!!  That is ridiculous Chris.  There are NOT that many 7' starting or backup PF's in the entire league.  Fill me in if there are a LOT of them, because I must be very ill informed!!!  He put up numbers vs. Andrew Nicholson (a long 6'9"), Kyle O'Quinn (a solid 6'10"), Terrance Jones (a long 6'9"), and Greg Smith (6'10"), just to mention a few.

I look forward to your reply.

Thanks,

Smitty77

[Tr1boy]

Olynyk in his first year will play more like brad miller, making damage from the perimeter 85 percent of the time imo. Second year with added strength , experience mix in more post moves

I like the Brad Miller comparison offensively, although Miller was MUCH stronger.  People forget that he was actually an incredibly tough, physical player, and a very good rebounder.  Olynyk will never be like that.

But yes, his offense will probably be similar to Miller's in the high post.  He can shoot over smaller guys, or make teams pay for cheating off him.  He can drive against slower centers (although Olynyk won't likely have that luxury much, because he won't be able to defend those guys, and will likely be matched up more on quicker PFs), and can make good passes. 

But, without the toughness and rebounding, I am not sure that is a very special player.   

Miller was a decent rebounder but nothing oustanding. He avg about 8 for his career.

I think olynyk at worse can avg 7 rb in the nba.

[Chris]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

I really love how you down play his summer league play.  Does this mean ANYTHING to you Chris??

http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

You act like KO will NOT have a height advantage on MOST other PF's in the NBA!!!  That is ridiculous Chris.  There are NOT that many 7' starting or backup PF's in the entire league.  Fill me in if there are a LOT of them, because I must be very ill informed!!!  He put up numbers vs. Andrew Nicholson (a long 6'9"), Kyle O'Quinn (a solid 6'10"), Terrance Jones (a long 6'9"), and Greg Smith (6'10"), just to mention a few.

I look forward to your reply.

Thanks,

Smitty77

Performing as Olynyk did in the summerleague is expected from a lottery pick.  It doesn't mean much.  We have seen plenty of guys tear up the summerleague in more spectacular fashion, and end up never catching on in the league.  So no, I do not put much stock in a summerleague performance. 

I think the most we can assume based on that performance is that he should be able to be an NBA player.  And even that is tough to assume based on that, but I will give him that much.  To make the leap that he would be anything more than a decent player (which I have never suggest he won't be) is a leap I will not make based on what he has done. 

As for the guys you brought up, these were basically end of the rotation guys on a lottery team, and bench guys on a playoff team.  Terrance Jones and O'Quinn barely got on the floor, Nicholson is a terrible defensive player, and Greg Smith isn't exactly known for his defense either. 

Now, I do believe Olynyk will be a solid pick and pop player.  I just don't think that makes him much more than a roleplayer.

[Chris]

I think olynyk at worse can avg 7 rb in the nba.

Based on what?  Kelly averaged 7.3 rebounds per game in college, playing in a conference where a lot of teams are lucky to have a guy who is 6'8". 

Rebounding is one of those things that translates well between college and the NBA.  If you are a mediocre rebounder in college, than you will be in the NBA. 

I think Kelly will be right in line with Bargnani on the boards. 

[Smitty77]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

I really love how you down play his summer league play.  Does this mean ANYTHING to you Chris??

http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

You act like KO will NOT have a height advantage on MOST other PF's in the NBA!!!  That is ridiculous Chris.  There are NOT that many 7' starting or backup PF's in the entire league.  Fill me in if there are a LOT of them, because I must be very ill informed!!!  He put up numbers vs. Andrew Nicholson (a long 6'9"), Kyle O'Quinn (a solid 6'10"), Terrance Jones (a long 6'9"), and Greg Smith (6'10"), just to mention a few.

I look forward to your reply.

Thanks,

Smitty77

Performing as Olynyk did in the summerleague is expected from a lottery pick.  It doesn't mean much.  We have seen plenty of guys tear up the summerleague in more spectacular fashion, and end up never catching on in the league.  So no, I do not put much stock in a summerleague performance. 

I think the most we can assume based on that performance is that he should be able to be an NBA player.  And even that is tough to assume based on that, but I will give him that much.  To make the leap that he would be anything more than a decent player (which I have never suggest he won't be) is a leap I will not make based on what he has done. 

As for the guys you brought up, these were basically end of the rotation guys on a lottery team, and bench guys on a playoff team.  Terrance Jones and O'Quinn barely got on the floor, Nicholson is a terrible defensive player, and Greg Smith isn't exactly known for his defense either. 

Now, I do believe Olynyk will be a solid pick and pop player.  I just don't think that makes him much more than a roleplayer.

First, KO was BARELY a lottery pick at #13.  Also, PLEASE inform me that last late lottery pick that so dominated the summer league.  I will be waiting. 

Nicholson is a terrible player that had an 8.23 Efficiency Rating and who played in 75 games this year!!!

O'Quinn played in 57 games and had a 6.10 Efficiency Rating.

Terrence Jones had a 7.50 Efficiency Rating the the PLAYOFFS this year and averaged almost 8 rebounds.

Greg Smith played in 70 games and started 10 and averaged 6 points and almost 5 rebounds in the regular season.

You are I will clearly NEVER agree on this.

Smitty77

[Tr1boy]

I think olynyk at worse can avg 7 rb in the nba.

Based on what?  Kelly averaged 7.3 rebounds per game in college, playing in a conference where a lot of teams are lucky to have a guy who is 6'8". 

Rebounding is one of those things that translates well between college and the NBA.  If you are a mediocre rebounder in college, than you will be in the NBA. 

I think Kelly will be right in line with Bargnani on the boards.

He avg 8 or 9 reb at sl . the progression is there.

Its beyond me why you dont think he can improve. His body will get better. Rebounding is more to do with technique vs able to leapfrog over ppl

[Fafnir]

I think olynyk at worse can avg 7 rb in the nba.

Based on what?  Kelly averaged 7.3 rebounds per game in college, playing in a conference where a lot of teams are lucky to have a guy who is 6'8". 

Rebounding is one of those things that translates well between college and the NBA.  If you are a mediocre rebounder in college, than you will be in the NBA. 

I think Kelly will be right in line with Bargnani on the boards.

Rebounding translates, Olynyk's rebounding was better by rate than totals due to his relatively low minutes total for a "star" at Gonzaga.

Offensive % 11.8
Defensive % 20.54

Sullinger's for comparison
Offensive % 12.42
Defensive % 23.89

I don't expect him to be a star rebounder, but he should be better than Bargs if it translates at all....

[billysan]

I don't see KO getting enough minutes to score much so I doubt there is anything close to a double digit average. He is probably talented enough to have a couple of 15 point games if he gets hot, but that's about it for this year. Also he will not be more than the 3-4th option at any time on the floor behind Rondo, Green, Sullinger, Bradley, Lee, Bass and probably Wallace/Humphries.

If he is a number one or two option, we are in full Tank mode. 

[Boris Badenov]

I think olynyk at worse can avg 7 rb in the nba.

Based on what?  Kelly averaged 7.3 rebounds per game in college, playing in a conference where a lot of teams are lucky to have a guy who is 6'8". 

Rebounding is one of those things that translates well between college and the NBA.  If you are a mediocre rebounder in college, than you will be in the NBA. 

I think Kelly will be right in line with Bargnani on the boards.

I don't think Olynyk projects to be as bad as Bargnani, mostly because Il Mago is historically bad.

Here are the worst rebounders 6'9" or taller last year, by rp36:

Steve Novak
Corey Brewer
Bargnani (4.6)
Chris Copeland
Tayshaun Prince
Matt Bonner
Jeff Green (5.1)
Chandler Parsons
Marvin Williams
Danilo Gallinari

Now, you are right Chris that KO averaged only 7.3 rebounds in college, but he played only 26mpg, and his rebound rate of 16.5% rates out as mediocre but not terrible.

I did some checking and looked for guys recently who averaged similar rates and are now in the pros. The comparable guys include Patrick Patterson, Andrew Nicholson, Meyers Leonard, Marcus Morris and others.

These guys are fairy bad rebounders at the NBA level - most are in the 50-60 range out of 70+ qualifying power forwards last year. Most average around 6-7 rebounds per 36 minutes.

If you want to find guys at lesser schools, it looked to me like some other guys with similar rates were Ekpe Udoh, Greg Smith, and Festus Ezeli (depending on what you think of the SEC). Udoh had very bad rebounding numbers last year, while Smith and Ezeli were actually pretty good.

Now, I'm not sure Olynyk will be playing inside like those other guys. But even so, I don't see him being quite as awful as Bargnani.

Now as to triboy's claim about >7rpg: even if you project Olynyk to be a rebounder on the same level as Meyers Leonard, he'd have to play a lot of minutes (32+) to hit 7 per game.

If he rebounds more like Brandon Bass, and plays 20 minutes per game, that would give him around 4rpg.