Kelly Olynyk 2013-2014 predictions.

[Boris Badenov]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

I remember doing something similar on Sully a couple months back. I will head over to the Sully projection thread and post something more up-to-date there.

[Celtics18]

The main point of argument about Olynyk appears to be how good he will be in his rookie year.  Some of us (myself included) have posted some numbers that realistically will be very difficult for him to attain.  Boris (and some others) have done a good job of showing how rare even numbers like 13 and 6 are for a rookie big man to post.

Even those projecting lower (and perhaps more realistic) numbers for his rookie season seem to be in agreement, though, that the kid looks to have a ton of talent and could be a very good long term NBA player. 

We all know that having a good showing in Summer League is far from a guarantee of future NBA success.  Just look at Luke Harangody, for example.  On the other hand, I don't remember the excitement over the prospect of Luke's NBA career being anywhere near as unanimous as it is over the Klynyk's based on his rookie summer league performance.

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

[Tr1boy]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

don't bother as Boris will just find a way to bring your point down.  He will say something like "Sully did, 10 and 9 but it was bc of KG being by his side. Also lets not forget his back injury, can't jump and is only 6'9"

Boris and some others refuse to look at the bright side of things. The kid had the highest PER last year and even then has proved worthy so far by having a heck of a consistent SL peformance.  I bet after a stellar first year , ppl will still doubt him bc he can't dunk/block shots like Griffin

The thing that bugs me the most is how Olynyk is brought down by using better players than him right now as comparisons. Or how they were picked #5 so Olynyk has no chance.  Instead of considering Olynyk was a steal and drafted about 5-7 spots later than he should of

[Boris Badenov]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

don't bother as Boris will just find a way to bring your point down.  He will say something like "Sully did, 10 and 9 but it was bc of KG being by his side. Also lets not forget his back injury, can't jump and is only 6'9"

Boris and some others refuse to look at the bright side of things. The kid had the highest PER last year and even then has proved worthy so far by having a heck of a consistent SL peformance.  I bet after a stellar first year , ppl will still doubt him bc he can't dunk/block shots like Griffin

The thing that bugs me the most is how Olynyk is brought down by using better players than him right now as comparisons. Or how they were picked #5 so Olynyk has no chance.  Instead of considering Olynyk was a steal and drafted about 5-7 spots later than he should of

Actually, while you were here posting this um, prediction regarding my post, I was over in the other thread writing something up.

Don't worry, I won't conclude anything about your overall predicting ability based on how accurate you were regarding what I would write.

[LilRip]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

don't bother as Boris will just find a way to bring your point down.  He will say something like "Sully did, 10 and 9 but it was bc of KG being by his side. Also lets not forget his back injury, can't jump and is only 6'9"

Boris and some others refuse to look at the bright side of things. The kid had the highest PER last year and even then has proved worthy so far by having a heck of a consistent SL peformance.  I bet after a stellar first year , ppl will still doubt him bc he can't dunk/block shots like Griffin

The thing that bugs me the most is how Olynyk is brought down by using better players than him right now as comparisons. Or how they were picked #5 so Olynyk has no chance.  Instead of considering Olynyk was a steal and drafted about 5-7 spots later than he should of

Actually, while you were here posting this um, prediction regarding my post, I was over in the other thread writing something up.

Don't worry, I won't conclude anything about your overall predicting ability based on how accurate you were regarding what I would write.

I have long since stopped trying to dissuade triboy's unyielding optimism regarding KO. I showed him the same scouting report video before too actually (the point of contention then was KO's defense and why he won't be a good defensive anchor, and how he will likely be a poor to average defender at best).

My advice is to make your predictions, collect your TPs, let him rant, and in a few months, the games played will prove (most likely you) correct. Cheers!

[Tr1boy]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

don't bother as Boris will just find a way to bring your point down.  He will say something like "Sully did, 10 and 9 but it was bc of KG being by his side. Also lets not forget his back injury, can't jump and is only 6'9"

Boris and some others refuse to look at the bright side of things. The kid had the highest PER last year and even then has proved worthy so far by having a heck of a consistent SL peformance.  I bet after a stellar first year , ppl will still doubt him bc he can't dunk/block shots like Griffin

The thing that bugs me the most is how Olynyk is brought down by using better players than him right now as comparisons. Or how they were picked #5 so Olynyk has no chance.  Instead of considering Olynyk was a steal and drafted about 5-7 spots later than he should of

Actually, while you were here posting this um, prediction regarding my post, I was over in the other thread writing something up.

Don't worry, I won't conclude anything about your overall predicting ability based on how accurate you were regarding what I would write.

I have long since stopped trying to dissuade triboy's unyielding optimism regarding KO. I showed him the same scouting report video before too actually (the point of contention then was KO's defense and why he won't be a good defensive anchor, and how he will likely be a poor to average defender at best).

My advice is to make your predictions, collect your TPs, let him rant, and in a few months, the games played will prove (most likely you) correct. Cheers!

Did you actually watch KO play defense in college to SL games??

If you did with an open mind, how can you say he is a poor to average defender??  You know who is an avg defender? Deandre Jordan. For all of those highlight reel blocks, he more often than not lets his man do the little things to beat him. In addition don't ask him to try to help you with your defender.

Let me ask you, do you think Sullinger is a poor to avg defender??  If you say yes then i don't think you are considering the whole picture/little things that make a defender better than avg.  If you say no and consider Sullinger a  a pretty decent defender, than thats the way i'm saying Olynyk is also.

Whats your answer?

[hpantazo]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

don't bother as Boris will just find a way to bring your point down.  He will say something like "Sully did, 10 and 9 but it was bc of KG being by his side. Also lets not forget his back injury, can't jump and is only 6'9"

Boris and some others refuse to look at the bright side of things. The kid had the highest PER last year and even then has proved worthy so far by having a heck of a consistent SL peformance.  I bet after a stellar first year , ppl will still doubt him bc he can't dunk/block shots like Griffin

The thing that bugs me the most is how Olynyk is brought down by using better players than him right now as comparisons. Or how they were picked #5 so Olynyk has no chance.  Instead of considering Olynyk was a steal and drafted about 5-7 spots later than he should of

Actually, while you were here posting this um, prediction regarding my post, I was over in the other thread writing something up.

Don't worry, I won't conclude anything about your overall predicting ability based on how accurate you were regarding what I would write.

I have long since stopped trying to dissuade triboy's unyielding optimism regarding KO. I showed him the same scouting report video before too actually (the point of contention then was KO's defense and why he won't be a good defensive anchor, and how he will likely be a poor to average defender at best).

My advice is to make your predictions, collect your TPs, let him rant, and in a few months, the games played will prove (most likely you) correct. Cheers!

Did you actually watch KO play defense in college to SL games??

If you did with an open mind, how can you say he is a poor to average defender??  You know who is an avg defender? Deandre Jordan. For all of those highlight reel blocks, he more often than not lets his man do the little things to beat him. In addition don't ask him to try to help you with your defender.

Let me ask you, do you think Sullinger is a poor to avg defender??  If you say yes then i don't think you are considering the whole picture/little things that make a defender better than avg.  If you say no and consider Sullinger a  a pretty decent defender, than thats the way i'm saying Olynyk is also.

Whats your answer?

Sullinger is not Olynyk. I don't see what one has to do with the other.

[vjcsmoke]

And most of those guys were instantly supposed to be the center piece of their teams.  You know they had their fair share of plays called for them.  Olynky on the other hand is a guy who Ainge even said will be a complementary player.  How many plays do the complementary players get called for them?

I say no way he averages double figures this year.

But I'd love for everyone of you to come back and throw it in my face if you're right.  I'd love to be wrong here, but I just don't think it's going to happen.

You make a good point.  It's tough for rookie big men to make an impact.  Luckily there are a few factors that help Olynyk.

1.  Doc Rivers is no longer with the Celtics.  Doc hated playing rookies.  I think Brad Stevens will be more open minded.
2.  Paul Pierce and KG are gone.  Rondo and Pressey are pass first point guards.  This means that Jeff Green is our only clear cut #1 scoring option, and there will be balls available for another scorer to step up, a guy such as Ko for example.
3.  KO is one of the most polished offensive players coming out of college in this year's draft class.  He has inside game, he has outside game, he has very high basketball IQ, and he has a 3 point shot.  He also plays well on the pick and roll which should give him more opportunities to score.

So based on the above I am predicting:
1.  All Rookie 1st team for KO
2.  Top 5 in ROTY voting
3.  Top 5 in rookie scoring.

For stats I will predict:

12.5 ppg, 5.5 rbpg, 2.5 apg, 25.5 mpg

Hopefully my guess is right and he is a double digit scorer as a rookie for us.  It's going to be minute dependant, but I think he has a great shot because we are in a rebuilding year and our PGs are setup men by inclination.

[D.o.s.]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?

don't bother as Boris will just find a way to bring your point down.  He will say something like "Sully did, 10 and 9 but it was bc of KG being by his side. Also lets not forget his back injury, can't jump and is only 6'9"

Boris and some others refuse to look at the bright side of things. The kid had the highest PER last year and even then has proved worthy so far by having a heck of a consistent SL peformance.  I bet after a stellar first year , ppl will still doubt him bc he can't dunk/block shots like Griffin

The thing that bugs me the most is how Olynyk is brought down by using better players than him right now as comparisons. Or how they were picked #5 so Olynyk has no chance.  Instead of considering Olynyk was a steal and drafted about 5-7 spots later than he should of

Actually, while you were here posting this um, prediction regarding my post, I was over in the other thread writing something up.

Don't worry, I won't conclude anything about your overall predicting ability based on how accurate you were regarding what I would write.

I have long since stopped trying to dissuade triboy's unyielding optimism regarding KO. I showed him the same scouting report video before too actually (the point of contention then was KO's defense and why he won't be a good defensive anchor, and how he will likely be a poor to average defender at best).

My advice is to make your predictions, collect your TPs, let him rant, and in a few months, the games played will prove (most likely you) correct. Cheers!

Did you actually watch KO play defense in college to SL games??

If you did with an open mind, how can you say he is a poor to average defender??  You know who is an avg defender? Deandre Jordan. For all of those highlight reel blocks, he more often than not lets his man do the little things to beat him. In addition don't ask him to try to help you with your defender.

Let me ask you, do you think Sullinger is a poor to avg defender??  If you say yes then i don't think you are considering the whole picture/little things that make a defender better than avg.  If you say no and consider Sullinger a  a pretty decent defender, than thats the way i'm saying Olynyk is also.

Whats your answer?

Not that I don't dig your sunny-side outlook, but you're the guy that said David Lee wasn't a bad defender.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Got to say how Jeff Green pans out will be one the things I`ll be following closest this season. I count myself among the `sunny siders` but really till we see some basketball there is no knowing how things will go.

[LooseCannon]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

[Boris Badenov]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

The Bargnani analogy is interesting. Here's a clip of his Summer League performances in 2006:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u15IORiDlz8

He averaged 13.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 26 mpg at the Vegas summer League.

In his rookie year, he averaged in 25mpg:

11.6 ppg
3.9 rpg
0.8 apg
0.5 spg
0.8 bpg
43/37/82 shooting

[Tr1boy]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

Olynyk also has a way better post game, more toughness, better co ordination, and higher motor

[bfrombleacher]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

Olynyk also has a way better post game, more toughness, better co ordination, and higher motor

I agree that Olynyk can potentially be that and with Bargnani comparisons in general.

But Bargnani is 7'1 with better wingspan and better reach. Slightly more talented. Plus there is an off chance Olynyk could not even sniff the floor for a number of reasons.



To add to your list, Olynyk's short arms may not be a complete disadvantage. Olynyk's handles are GUARD-like which may not be possible with a wingspan of a condor.

Edit: Another thought. If Bargnani is considered an SG in a big's body, Olynyk seems PG/combo guard in a big's body with a jump shot. Makes sense considering Olynyk has been playing PG for quite a while before his growth spurt.

[Chris]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

Olynyk also has a way better post game, more toughness, better co ordination, and higher motor

I don't necessarily agree with the coordination.  And it is WAY too early to say Olynyk is tougher.  I haven't seen much of that to this point.  Not sure where that is coming from. 

I also think Bargnani's greater length and athleticism makes up for some of the motor issues.

And I don't think we can count Kelly's post game as a positive over anyone, until he shows he can hold his position in the post against NBA competition.  I am VERY skeptical of that.