Kelly Olynyk 2013-2014 predictions.

[Tr1boy]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

Olynyk also has a way better post game, more toughness, better co ordination, and higher motor

I don't necessarily agree with the coordination.  And it is WAY too early to say Olynyk is tougher.  I haven't seen much of that to this point.  Not sure where that is coming from. 

I also think Bargnani's greater length and athleticism makes up for some of the motor issues.

And I don't think we can count Kelly's post game as a positive over anyone, until he shows he can hold his position in the post against NBA competition.  I am VERY skeptical of that.

Is olynyk good at anything in your eyes?  Zero praise. Who was it the you really wanted ainge to draft?

Btw for all that length, athleticism bargnani might be the worse 7ft tall rebounder in the league.

[bucknersrevenge]

Two things surprise me when people talk about Olynyk.

1. Some people said he didn't have much of a post game. I thought he had a post game like Mchale - not nearly as good yet - but his style in the post is similar. The kid can score from a variety of places on the floor. He's about as well rounded a scoring big man as I've seen in quite some time.

2. That he's not strong enough. To be honest I'm more concerned with how tough he is than how strong he is. From  what I've seen, he's plenty tough. He may not be able to throw guys all over the place, but I don't see him getting tossed around either and he certainly does not shy away from contact on either end of the floor.

He's seven tall and his already 240 pounds. If he has strong legs, he may be more difficult to move around in the paint than people think. Being able to hold your ground in the paint has more to do with leg strength than upper body strength.

Hard to say what numbers he'll average -

12 / 5 / 3 - 25 minutes a night.

Scary thing for Olynk - if he puts on 15-20 pounds of muscle over the next 2-3 years without losing his agility and speed? he could be very, very tough.

He could turn into a 20 and 8 guy.     

This is my exact assessment of KO, pretty much word for word. He's gonna contribute offensively right off the bat. He's too skilled not to. It's on defense where we'll have to see how things play out. But give this kid a couple of seasons with Bryan Doo. Stronger legs, stronger arms, better able to handle the pounding; people use the obvious Dirk comparison but I like Pau Gasol a little better.

[Chris]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

Olynyk also has a way better post game, more toughness, better co ordination, and higher motor

I don't necessarily agree with the coordination.  And it is WAY too early to say Olynyk is tougher.  I haven't seen much of that to this point.  Not sure where that is coming from. 

I also think Bargnani's greater length and athleticism makes up for some of the motor issues.

And I don't think we can count Kelly's post game as a positive over anyone, until he shows he can hold his position in the post against NBA competition.  I am VERY skeptical of that.

Is olynyk good at anything in your eyes?  Zero praise. Who was it the you really wanted ainge to draft?

Btw for all that length, athleticism bargnani might be the worse 7ft tall rebounder in the league.

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.  A guy who can score against certain matchups, but will likely struggle against long, athletic guys who know how to defend.  BUT, his BBIQ and instincts do give him the potential to be better than that.  He can make up for a lot of his physical shortcomings with his IQ. 

But, I think Bargnani is being underrated dramatically here.  He has had a tough couple years, but this is a guy who has a career average of over 15 points per game.  And I see no reason why Olynyk would be a better rebounder than Bargnani.  He is shorter, and not as quick, and not strong enough to bang down low.  I also think Olynyk will have to work to be a better defender than Bargnani.  Andrea is not a good defender, but he can protect the rim a bit, and I think if you had him on a team that actually played defense, he would be viewed a lot differently.

[LooseCannon]

But, I think Bargnani is being underrated dramatically here.  He has had a tough couple years, but this is a guy who has a career average of over 15 points per game.  And I see no reason why Olynyk would be a better rebounder than Bargnani.  He is shorter, and not as quick, and not strong enough to bang down low.  I also think Olynyk will have to work to be a better defender than Bargnani.  Andrea is not a good defender, but he can protect the rim a bit, and I think if you had him on a team that actually played defense, he would be viewed a lot differently.

Points per game is an overrated stat.

Bargnani is so historically bad at rebounding that Olynyk would pretty much have to come close to being the worst rebounder ever to be worse than Bargs at rebounding.  I expect Olynyk to be a smarter defender who will at least have an acceptable awareness of help defense he is supposed to provide.

[ScoobyDoo]

bucknersrevenge:

Yep. The strongest guys I ever played against were the "tough guys" and they weren't always that blatantly big or strong - they were just tough.

Bird was no Oakley, but he was tough as crap. Now, I'm not saying Olynyk has Bird's toughness -Bird was another whole level - like Jordan level toughness.

But Kelly definitely mixes it up and gets in the thick of things. And he doesn't back away after taking a shot.

There's another thing I've always found curious over t6he years when playing basketball. You can have a guy that's 6'2" and 220 that is easier to push around in the paint than a guy 5'10" and 190.

I've always chalked that oddity up to two things:

1. The lighter guy is just "built" stronger - they're either just overall stronger than most guys their size, or they are built unusually strong through the legs and hips - you just can't move them.

2. They then understand leverage and how to seal you and move you around with their hips and footwork.

When I watch Olynyk in the post workign his position it makes me wonder if he's one of those guys. He seems to get where he wants on the post and he does a lot of pushing and shoving down there with his hips and footwork to get it.

I'm not syaing the guy is Charles Barkeley - but if it is the case that he has solid leg and hip strength - if you then add another 15-20 pounds to that frame - tough....

All this remains to be seen, but I like the early returns on the kid.   
 
   

[bdm860]

One reason I think it’s hard to predict a rookies numbers, is because well they’re rookies, and one of two things usually happens.

1.   No matter how good you are, adjusting to the NBA takes time.  Rookies tend to start slowly (or are brought along slowly), gradually improving as the year goes on.  Many times even high potential rookies don’t start the first 5, 10, 20 games etc., and many times production for rookies doesn’t really take off until the end of the season.
2.   They also tend to be inconsistent.  Not use to the physical demand, the long season, all the games/travel, whatever.  A lot of rookies hit the rookie wall around January/February, and their numbers take a hit.

Most rookies fall into one of the two above scenarios, sometimes both.

Look at the most NBA ready player in the last 20 years, Tim Duncan.  His rookie year, even though he was on the All-Everything team (NBA, Defensive, Rookie) that first year, look how his production went: 15ppg in November, 19ppg in December/January, 24-27ppg in February-April.

Another ROY, Kenyon Martin, went from consistently putting up 10-12ppg in November-March, then April puts up 18ppg.

A unique player like Dirk, his rookie year he went from 6-7ppg in the Feb-March, to 11-12ppg in April-May (lockout year).

Greg Monroe went from 4ppg in November, to 6ppg in December, to 11-14ppg in January through April.

While those guys continually, gradually improved as they got adjusted to the NBA, some guys are all over the place (hitting the rookie wall, and still adjusting to the grind of the NBA is what I’d attribute it to).

Yao Ming went from 10ppg in November, to 17ppg in December, back down to 12ppg in January, back up to 17ppg in February, then down to 14ppg and 12ppg in March and April.

You have a guy like Kevin Love. He went from 8.4ppg to 6.6ppg to 12-13ppg to 16ppg to 10ppg from November to April.

Last year’s #1 pick, Anthony Davis, went from 14-15ppg in November and December, dropping to 11ppg in January and February, back up to 16ppg in March and April.

I think very rarely do you get rookies who can come in and pretty consistently put up good numbers all year during their rookie years.

So basically I always try to be conservative on rookies, give them a chance to adjust to the NBA.  I think a lot of coaches purposely bring rookies along slowly.  Look up most rookies stats.  They may play 80+ games but they didn’t start for the first 10,20,30, games etc.  (Pretty much the case for most of the guys I’ve listed in this post and my post from the first page of this thread).

I think it’s more realistic to argue Olynyk put’s up some of the loftier expectations in this thread in March and April, but not for the whole year.  Olynyk's "unique" skill set isn't going to cause him to avoid the rookie wall or help him adjust to the NBA grind.  Give rookies a chance to adjust, expect them to be brought along slowly, and don’t expect too much from them right away.

[D.o.s.]

One reason I think it’s hard to predict a rookies numbers, is because well they’re rookies, and one of two things usually happens.

1.   No matter how good you are, adjusting to the NBA takes time.  Rookies tend to start slowly (or are brought along slowly), gradually improving as the year goes on.  Many times even high potential rookies don’t start the first 5, 10, 20 games etc., and many times production for rookies doesn’t really take off until the end of the season.
2.   They also tend to be inconsistent.  Not use to the physical demand, the long season, all the games/travel, whatever.  A lot of rookies hit the rookie wall around January/February, and their numbers take a hit.

Most rookies fall into one of the two above scenarios, sometimes both.

Look at the most NBA ready player in the last 20 years, Tim Duncan.  His rookie year, even though he was on the All-Everything team (NBA, Defensive, Rookie) that first year, look how his production went: 15ppg in November, 19ppg in December/January, 24-27ppg in February-April.

Another ROY, Kenyon Martin, went from consistently putting up 10-12ppg in November-March, then April puts up 18ppg.

A unique player like Dirk, his rookie year he went from 6-7ppg in the Feb-March, to 11-12ppg in April-May (lockout year).

Greg Monroe went from 4ppg in November, to 6ppg in December, to 11-14ppg in January through April.

While those guys continually, gradually improved as they got adjusted to the NBA, some guys are all over the place (hitting the rookie wall, and still adjusting to the grind of the NBA is what I’d attribute it to).

Yao Ming went from 10ppg in November, to 17ppg in December, back down to 12ppg in January, back up to 17ppg in February, then down to 14ppg and 12ppg in March and April.

You have a guy like Kevin Love. He went from 8.4ppg to 6.6ppg to 12-13ppg to 16ppg to 10ppg from November to April.

Last year’s ROY, Anthony Davis, went from 14-15ppg in November and December, dropping to 11ppg in January and February, back up to 16ppg in March and April.

I think very rarely do you get rookies who can come in and pretty consistently put up good numbers all year during their rookie years.

So basically I always try to be conservative on rookies, give them a chance to adjust to the NBA.  I think a lot of coaches purposely bring rookies along slowly.  Look up most rookies stats.  They may play 80+ games but they didn’t start for the first 10,20,30, games etc.  (Pretty much the case for most of the guys I’ve listed in this post and my post from the first page of this thread).

I think it’s more realistic to argue Olynyk put’s up some of the loftier expectations in this thread in March and April, but not for the whole year.  Olynyk's "unique" skill set isn't going to cause him to avoid the rookie wall or help him adjust to the NBA grind.  Give rookies a chance to adjust, expect them to be brought along slowly, and don’t expect too much from them right away.

Anthony Davis won ROY, huh?

[Chris]

Points per game is an overrated stat.

Not when you project as an offensive roleplayer, which is what I think Olynyk projects as.

[bdm860]

Anthony Davis won ROY, huh?

Lol, ROY, #1 pick, it's all the same when you're typing fast in between projects at work. 

[Celtics18]

Kelly O. seems to have something special about him.  Seven footers with his skill set are just extremely rare.  We could try to temper ourselves and say he'll be the next Andrea Bargnani or Byron Mullens, but what's the fun in that. 

I'm going to have to try really hard to refrain from saying that he's going to be the next Dirk Nowitzki before he's even played in a real NBA game, but, secretly, I don't know how I'll be able to help myself from dreaming very big on this kid.

What if I say he could be Bargnani with higher assist numbers and average (or close to average) defense and rebounding?

Olynyk also has a way better post game, more toughness, better co ordination, and higher motor

I don't necessarily agree with the coordination.  And it is WAY too early to say Olynyk is tougher.  I haven't seen much of that to this point.  Not sure where that is coming from. 

I also think Bargnani's greater length and athleticism makes up for some of the motor issues.

And I don't think we can count Kelly's post game as a positive over anyone, until he shows he can hold his position in the post against NBA competition.  I am VERY skeptical of that.

Is olynyk good at anything in your eyes?  Zero praise. Who was it the you really wanted ainge to draft?

Btw for all that length, athleticism bargnani might be the worse 7ft tall rebounder in the league.

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best. A guy who can score against certain matchups, but will likely struggle against long, athletic guys who know how to defend. BUT, his BBIQ and instincts do give him the potential to be better than that.  He can make up for a lot of his physical shortcomings with his IQ. 

But, I think Bargnani is being underrated dramatically here.  He has had a tough couple years, but this is a guy who has a career average of over 15 points per game.  And I see no reason why Olynyk would be a better rebounder than Bargnani.  He is shorter, and not as quick, and not strong enough to bang down low.  I also think Olynyk will have to work to be a better defender than Bargnani.  Andrea is not a good defender, but he can protect the rim a bit, and I think if you had him on a team that actually played defense, he would be viewed a lot differently.

There's an interesting disparity between your two bolded sentences.  I think those two disparate thoughts get at the heart of what makes Kelly Olynyk such an interesting player.

He's clearly a guy who has some positives as a basketball player that make him very intriguing, while he's also a guy who has some physical limitations that could end up being a concern.

I'm in the camp that says he'll be able to use his skills and his basketball smarts to overcome his physical limitations, and become a very good NBA basketball player.

Time will tell.  Luckily, we'll start to get a glimpse soon enough. 

I will make a bold prediction that Kelly Olynyk will end up having a better NBA career than Andrea Bargnani.  It won't be the attributes that he has below the neck that will result in that, but rather the attributes between the ears. 

[PhoSita]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

[Chris]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days. 

[Tr1boy]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

[Chris]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

[Tr1boy]

I think Olynyk is a decent mid first round pick in a weak draft. 

His skills and lack of athleticism set him up to be a 10th man in this league at best.

Ouch, that's harsh.

I'd say "10th man at best" is a weak return for a mid first round pick, honestly.  That's a borderline rotation player who ideally is getting 10-15 minutes a night.

Well, if you kept reading, you would see that I said he could be better than a 10th man, based on his BBIQ and intangibles.  But, he is still a very limited player physically.  And it is exceedingly rare that a player is any more than a roleplayer in the NBA, without really good length and/or athleticism these days.

It is also rare to see a legit 7ft player do what olynyk can.

Eh.  Maybe. 

Olynyk had one good year in college, and wasn't even really dominant.  He averaged 18 and 7, and only shot 30% from college 3 point range. 

And his skillset isn't that special.  He can shoot over shorter guys, which he did in the summerleague, but I question whether that will work when he gets to the NBA level. 

He uses moves that really have only worked consistently for Dirk Nowitski, and Dirk is taller, longer, quicker, more athletic, and has a higher release, and more arch on his shots.  I just am really skeptical whether Olynyk will be able to get shots off that easily in the NBA. 

I think he can be a quality stretch 4, assuming his 3 point shooting improves over last season.  And he has the potential to be a quality all-around player, if it all comes together.  But I just think expectations have become way too high on this kid, after a good summerleague against a lot of guys who will be fighting for spots in the D-League.

In the nba he will continue to shoot over shorter guys.

How many 7ft pf are there in the nba? He will shoot over zach randolph, david west, david lee , blake griffin etc.