My 'No-Spin Zone' take on this matchup:
This is my attempt to honestly assess the series. I know I'm not impartial. I'm not pretending to be. I'm just telling you how I see it, as impartially as I can.
First off, it won't be easy for either team. LeBron James and the Kings are a well put together squad, with talented players, adequate depth, and the single greatest talent in basketball. Aside from LeBron, the Blazers have better players at every other position, although the point and the center positions, I'm sure Nick will contest. I believe my players to be better, and I've seen a lot of Chauncey Billups and a lot of Lowry last year, and a lot of Bogut and a lot of Chandler.
How my team wins:
Offense:
Kyle Lowry continues his stellar play from the first two rounds of the playoffs and is just much too fast and athletic for Billups to check and keep out of the lane. Lowry's penetration puts strain on Tyson Chandler and LeBron James's help defense, allowing Lowry to find cutters like Amare Stoudemire, Derrick Williams, and Andrew Bogut for easy buckets.
James Harden plays a 2-man game with Amare Stoudemire, attacking the weakest front-court defender (Millsap) while further pursuing Harden's advantage over Matthews, and building upon Harden's growing rep as one of the best young pick and roll ball handlers from the 2 guard.
Delfino limits LeBron's ability to help by knocking down the open 3pt shots he does have, after Lowry and Harden are forcing the defense to collapse.
Amare Stoudemire plays very well in his minutes at the 5, taking Tyson Chandler to task like he did last season, and forcing Chandler out to the perimeter, allowing Lowry/Harden/Williams more room to work.
Andrew Bogut holds a sizeable advantage over Chandler. He's managed to be a primary or secondary option against Chandler over the last 2 years and still shoot 59% (that's a heck of an accomplishment) while taking over 10FGA's a game. His deft passing will allow for lots of opportunities for my shooters when Matthews or LeBron has to help.
Defense:
Lowry dominates Chauncey Billups on defense because of Billups' new role as spot-shooter and part-time ball handler.
Carlos Delfino keeps LeBron James under 30 points for 4 or more of the possible 7 games.
Paul Millsap does not improve on his performance against Amare as a starter.
Andrew Bogut, and Amare Stoudemire are the twin towers you need when playing against LeBron. Both good help defenders, both big bodies that block shots, and will force LeBron into more passes and contested layups than he's comfortable with.
James Harden keeps Wes Matthews at his current H2H shooting %'s.
Lowry, Delfino, Harden, and Bogut's good defensive sensibilities and athleticism cut off LeBron's passing lanes, and make it harder for his passes to find paydirt.
How I could lose:
1) Paul Millsap plays like he did against Miami last season as a real threat from the post, and from the mid-range. LeBron's passes out of the post to Millsap are a lot more deadly if he's strokin his jumpers.
2) LeBron eats up Carlos Delfino on a regular basis. It'll happen once or twice anyways, but if it happens more often than it doesn't happen, I'm in a big pile of stinky LeBron.
3) Chauncey Billups has a Renaissance series. If Billups is hitting everything over Lowry's outstretched hands and making solid passes while still allowing LeBron room to operate, its a problem. Lowry has the athleticism and strength to contest Billups on the outside, but there was a time 5 years ago where that didn't matter.
4) Derrick Williams collapses under the pressure of LeBron's All-NBA defense and the largeness of the moment.
5) Nobody on my team steps up to lead when the chips are down. They've gotten to the conference finals and that's all the pressure they can take.
Why I think I can win:
Playoff Experience Matters..but it also isn't the end of the world for me.
-My guys aren't starting from scratch here. They've already won 8 playoff games against two very talented teams. They've beaten Garnett and Pierce, they've beaten Boozer/Westbrook. They've already got some pretty serious experience.
My point is; its not like they're starting from scratch each new round. My team is building on each of the last 2 matchups, they're gelling more, coming together. You say they've got no playoff experience. I say my starters have already weathered at least 10 games and won at least 8. For Nick's team, this is not as substantial. For my team, this is critical.
-I'm kinda losing faith in LeBron as a leader. He deferred to Wade, and it likely cost them a championship. He quit on the Cavaliers during his last year there before he even got to the conference finals. He fled Cleveland so he wouldn't have to be the Alpha-Dog, and has reacted poorly to adversity all season, coming off more as a petulant child than a true leader of men. Billups is a great leader in his own right, but he could never tame Carmelo. Why is he capable of taming LeBron?
-I don't think Derrick Williams will wilt under the bright lights. He carried his team to the Elite-8, and even then he was within 2 points of advancing against a 5-seed. He's shown the ability to up his game in big moments, and he never gives up.
-I'm projecting a modest to static improvement from my guys next year, but 3 of my starting 5 players have room for great improvement next year. Lowry, Harden, and Bogut could all take a step next season up to 'the next level'. If any one of those guys improves, it changes the dynamic of this series. LeBron, Chandler, and Billups are known commodities, as is Millsap (although to be fair, Millsap might improve his defense and rebounding). Of Sacramento's starting 5, Matthews is the only real guy that might continue to improve his game next year, and considering that he's already 25 and been a starter for 2 years, he might have scratched the surface of his ceiling.
Lowry, Bogut, and Harden are all going through big changes. Bogut is coming back from a gruesome injury, Harden is moving into the top tiers of the SG position, and Lowry looks to be on the precipice of moving into the conversation of elite point guards.
If you believe that, these guys are difference makers in this series.
Could Sacramento win this series? Sure. But, LeBron only got to the Finals once without Dwyane Wade, and that was against one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in the modern era. LeBron's got a good team around him, but its built around him. I used to think that was what LeBron wanted, but as we've seen over the past 4 years, what LeBron wants is to be the yin to someone's yang, not their focal point. Frankly, I think my team is better, and I don't think LeBron can carry this one any further.
Topic: CB Draft Western Conference Finals: Kings (1) Vs Blazers (2) (Read 38657 times)