CB Draft Western Conference Finals: Kings (1) Vs Blazers (2)

[Rondo2287]

Congrats KC, you've succeeded in making Wes Matthews as overrated as Marc Gasol  .

But not quite as overrated as IP has made Kyle Lowry. 

In the last 3 matchups of Lowry and Billups, Lowry is averaging 4 fouls a game.  How much do you see sessions playing due to the foul trouble that billups imposes on Lowry due to his size and strength?

[Roy H.]

IP:  What numbers do you have to hold Lebron to in order to win? 

[wdleehi]

IP:  What numbers do you have to hold Lebron to in order to win? 

or


Why does Lebron choke in this round instead of the Finals this time?

[nickagneta]

IP:  What numbers do you have to hold Lebron to in order to win? 

See that's a good question.

I think unless Amare is putting up over 30, the Blazers are losing and that if Lebron is scoring 24 or more, the Blazers are losing.

[indeedproceed]

Gotta checkout for a while, but everyone check out this post in the meantime:

My 'No-Spin Zone' take on this matchup:

This is my attempt to honestly assess the series. I know I'm not impartial. I'm not pretending to be. I'm just telling you how I see it, as impartially as I can.

First off, it won't be easy for either team. LeBron James and the Kings are a well put together squad, with talented players, adequate depth, and the single greatest talent in basketball. Aside from LeBron, the Blazers have better players at every other position, although the point and the center positions, I'm sure Nick will contest. I believe my players to be better, and I've seen a lot of Chauncey Billups and a lot of Lowry last year, and a lot of Bogut and a lot of Chandler.

How my team wins:

Offense:
Kyle Lowry continues his stellar play from the first two rounds of the playoffs and is just much too fast and athletic for Billups to check and keep out of the lane. Lowry's penetration puts strain on Tyson Chandler and LeBron James's help defense, allowing Lowry to find cutters like Amare Stoudemire, Derrick Williams, and Andrew Bogut for easy buckets.

James Harden plays a 2-man game with Amare Stoudemire, attacking the weakest front-court defender (Millsap) while further pursuing Harden's advantage over Matthews, and building upon Harden's growing rep as one of the best young pick and roll ball handlers from the 2 guard.

Delfino limits LeBron's ability to help by knocking down the open 3pt shots he does have, after Lowry and Harden are forcing the defense to collapse.

Amare Stoudemire plays very well in his minutes at the 5, taking Tyson Chandler to task like he did last season, and forcing Chandler out to the perimeter, allowing Lowry/Harden/Williams more room to work.

Andrew Bogut holds a sizeable advantage over Chandler. He's managed to be a primary or secondary option against Chandler over the last 2 years and still shoot 59% (that's a heck of an accomplishment) while taking over 10FGA's a game. His deft passing will allow for lots of opportunities for my shooters when Matthews or LeBron has to help.

Defense:

Lowry dominates Chauncey Billups on defense because of Billups' new role as spot-shooter and part-time ball handler.

Carlos Delfino keeps LeBron James under 30 points for 4 or more of the possible 7 games.

Paul Millsap does not improve on his performance against Amare as a starter.

Andrew Bogut, and Amare Stoudemire are the twin towers you need when playing against LeBron. Both good help defenders, both big bodies that block shots, and will force LeBron into more passes and contested layups than he's comfortable with.

James Harden keeps Wes Matthews at his current H2H shooting %'s.

Lowry, Delfino, Harden, and Bogut's good defensive sensibilities and athleticism cut off LeBron's passing lanes, and make it harder for his passes to find paydirt.

How I could lose:

1) Paul Millsap plays like he did against Miami last season as a real threat from the post, and from the mid-range. LeBron's passes out of the post to Millsap are a lot more deadly if he's strokin his jumpers.

2) LeBron eats up Carlos Delfino on a regular basis. It'll happen once or twice anyways, but if it happens more often than it doesn't happen, I'm in a big pile of stinky LeBron. 

3) Chauncey Billups has a Renaissance series. If Billups is hitting everything over Lowry's outstretched hands and making solid passes while still allowing LeBron room to operate, its a problem. Lowry has the athleticism and strength to contest Billups on the outside, but there was a time 5 years ago where that didn't matter.

4) Derrick Williams collapses under the pressure of LeBron's All-NBA defense and the largeness of the moment.

5) Nobody on my team steps up to lead when the chips are down. They've gotten to the conference finals and that's all the pressure they can take.

Why I think I can win:

Playoff Experience Matters..but it also isn't the end of the world for me.
-My guys aren't starting from scratch here. They've already won 8 playoff games against two very talented teams. They've beaten Garnett and Pierce, they've beaten Boozer/Westbrook. They've already got some pretty serious experience.

My point is; its not like they're starting from scratch each new round. My team is building on each of the last 2 matchups, they're gelling more, coming together. You say they've got no playoff experience. I say my starters have already weathered at least 10 games and won at least 8. For Nick's team, this is not as substantial. For my team, this is critical.

-I'm kinda losing faith in LeBron as a leader. He deferred to Wade, and it likely cost them a championship. He quit on the Cavaliers during his last year there before he even got to the conference finals. He fled Cleveland so he wouldn't have to be the Alpha-Dog, and has reacted poorly to adversity all season, coming off more as a petulant child than a true leader of men. Billups is a great leader in his own right, but he could never tame Carmelo. Why is he capable of taming LeBron?

-I don't think Derrick Williams will wilt under the bright lights. He carried his team to the Elite-8, and even then he was within 2 points of advancing against a 5-seed. He's shown the ability to up his game in big moments, and he never gives up.

-I'm projecting a modest to static improvement from my guys next year, but 3 of my starting 5 players have room for great improvement next year. Lowry, Harden, and Bogut could all take a step next season up to 'the next level'. If any one of those guys improves, it changes the dynamic of this series. LeBron, Chandler, and Billups are known commodities, as is Millsap (although to be fair, Millsap might improve his defense and rebounding). Of Sacramento's starting 5, Matthews is the only real guy that might continue to improve his game next year, and considering that he's already 25 and been a starter for 2 years, he might have scratched the surface of his ceiling.

Lowry, Bogut, and Harden are all going through big changes. Bogut is coming back from a gruesome injury, Harden is moving into the top tiers of the SG position, and Lowry looks to be on the precipice of moving into the conversation of elite point guards.

If you believe that, these guys are difference makers in this series.

Could Sacramento win this series? Sure. But, LeBron only got to the Finals once without Dwyane Wade, and that was against one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in the modern era. LeBron's got a good team around him, but its built around him. I used to think that was what LeBron wanted, but as we've seen over the past 4 years, what LeBron wants is to be the yin to someone's yang, not their focal point. Frankly, I think my team is better, and I don't think LeBron can carry this one any further.

Couple of things to think about:

Kyle Lowry continues his stellar play? How long has he been playing stellar? I'll tell you. 2 months. That's it. Two months at the end of the season when he "led" his team to barely over .500 record and out of the playoffs. If that suddenly makes him better than a 5-time All Star, Finals MVP, and multi time All-NBA and All-Defense player, then I guess the Kings need to take down the tents and go home. IP says Jennings is a nonfactor yet Jennings has outplayed Lowry in matchups and is a two year starter in the real NBA whereas his starting guard started out last year as a bench player.

Building upon Harden's advantage over Matthews? I don't see it. Both players are young and growing their games in different ways and are fairly evenly matched. harden might shoot better than Matthews when matched up but points, rebounds, assists, steals are all about even between the two. That's not an advantage, it's a draw.

Delfino limits LeBron by knocking down three pointers? When has he ever done that versus LeBron. His career three point shooting versus Lebron is 26%. Are we cherry picking stats again because last I checked, whether you are shooting a three when starting a game or coming off the bench, as long as you are being guarded by the same guy, the shot is still the same shot and if you are misiing it, you are missing it. Doesn't matter your role.

Bogut's sizable advantage and deft passing? 2 assists per game makes for a deft passer? His career numbers versus Chandler say there is no advantage. Cherry picking stats again.

Let's only talk about Lowry since mid last season. Let's only talk about Bogut's last two years. Let's only talk about one game Amare had against KG. Does anyone else see a pattern here?

I say lets take a look at the entire body of work and not just some short recent possibly one or three game success.

Amare has never led a team anywhere. He's a born follower.

Williams is a rookie who Portland is leaning heavily on at the PF position. A ROOKIE versus Lebron James in the playoffs?? Good luck with that.

When Lowry, Harden, Amare and Bogut and Delfino get into foul trouble or have to rest where is the help coming from? Williams? Sessions? Robin Lopez? Jonas Jerebko? Gerald Henderson? Anthony Morrow?

Really?

At least we have a former ROY, a two year starting PG who once put up 50 in a game and a solid starting veteran PF in Miller, Jennings, and Diaw coming off the bench to help our starters.

In the same way you're telling me of being unrealistic, you're being obtuse with regard to my guys' play, as well as ignoring real deficiencies in your own guys.

You're also focusing only on the parts of the post you disagree with, and dismissing them out of hand without addressing the actual evidence they're based on.

I said what I thought it would take for my team to win. I based it on actual evidence that I'd seen with my own guys. I also said what I thought it would take for you to win.

And in regards to this post:

My 'No-Spin Zone' take on this matchup:

LOL IP. I read that whole take of yours and just noticed the title.

No-Spin zone? ****.

I know a show on FoxNews that uses that phrase and they have NEVER EVER been known to spin a view in a certain direction.

Thanks, IP. That made my day.

And, you were kind enough to miss this:

This is my attempt to honestly assess the series. I know I'm not impartial. I'm not pretending to be. I'm just telling you how I see it, as impartially as I can.

and to miss this:

Also, I'd like to add that Rondo and Nick could easily do what I did just there, and have just as much credibility.

Really I think it comes down to how much you believe in the guys on each team. Both teams are likable (excepting LeBron's choking behavior ), exciting, with lots of talent top to bottom, and few weaknesses. Well rounded rosters, and I don't really feel like there is a bad choice, objectively speaking.

But hey, if you can be a little snarky and dismissive while being willfully one-sided about it, that's something too.

[indeedproceed]

IP:  What numbers do you have to hold Lebron to in order to win? 

Delfino has to hold LeBron to 26 and under 4 nights out of 7. But that number isn't the one I think is magic. I think Delfino needs to hold LeBron to 48% and under from the field. The rest of the guys I'm not particularly worried about.

[nickagneta]

Sorry, IP I didn't mean for that to come off as snarky as much as I wanted it to come off snidely elitist and bantering.

And the second post was meant as humor since I knew what you were doing because I did read the post.

Sorry, dude never meant it that way. TP.

[Kane3387]

I don't include K.Lowry because he was a backup during his previous run and played a completely different role to the one he has now in Houston and here in Portland.

Doesn't Millsap fall into that same category then?

Millsap played 30+ minutes a night in his last two trips to playoffs (15 games) and posted 18ppg + 8.8rpg in his last series. He has a total of 44 playoff games under his belt.

Lowry has one trip to the playoffs. Played 13 games. Only 19 minutes a contest. Shot 33% from the field and 25% from three. Do you think that is indicative of his current level of performance? I don't.

Lowry is clearly a different player from the one that played in that year's playoffs. Ergo, he had no playoff experience in his current role.

Wow could have used that yesterday Who lol 

[KCattheStripe]

Congrats KC, you've succeeded in making Wes Matthews as overrated as Marc Gasol  .

WOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAH! All KC has ever said about Wes Matthews is that the Celtics should have drafted him and '09 and that Nickagenta is a hypocritical hater.

[indeedproceed]

I have a question: What team in the playoffs, without Dwyane Wade, has LeBron James ever beat that is better than mine?

The aging Detroit team? Because by that time that team was already on the way down.

The Wizards with Gilbert in his prime, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison? Nowhere near the defense and efficient scoring I've got.

I've got an expereinced above average wing defender, I've got an elite defensive center, I've got an unstoppable scoring 6'11 scorer, an athletic, elite defensive PG just entering his prime, and a SG with all the tools and experience needed to make the jump into the top tier of shooting guards in the NBA. I've got credible backups that have performed well in teh roles I'm giving them, and I've got a song in my heart.

I truly believe the Blazers are the better team. Especially after seeing how LeBron handles pressure.

[KCattheStripe]

I have a question: What team in the playoffs, without Dwyane Wade, has LeBron James ever beat that is better than mine?

The aging Detroit team? Because by that time that team was already on the way down.

That team made the conference finals the following year.

[Fafnir]

Congrats KC, you've succeeded in making Wes Matthews as overrated as Marc Gasol  .

WOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAH! All KC has ever said about Wes Matthews is that the Celtics should have drafted him and '09 and that Nickagenta is a hypocritical hater.

You started the ball rolling, you bear some responsibility where it ended up landing. 

[indeedproceed]

I have a question: What team in the playoffs, without Dwyane Wade, has LeBron James ever beat that is better than mine?

The aging Detroit team? Because by that time that team was already on the way down.

That team made the conference finals the following year.

Which one, Detroit?

[KCattheStripe]

Congrats KC, you've succeeded in making Wes Matthews as overrated as Marc Gasol  .

WOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAHWOAH! All KC has ever said about Wes Matthews is that the Celtics should have drafted him and '09 and that Nickagenta is a hypocritical hater.

You started the ball rolling, you bear some responsibility where it ended up landing. 

I'll admit to being the Wes Matthews Sisyphus if Nick admits to being the Wes Mathews Sissyphus.

[KCattheStripe]

I have a question: What team in the playoffs, without Dwyane Wade, has LeBron James ever beat that is better than mine?

The aging Detroit team? Because by that time that team was already on the way down.

That team made the conference finals the following year.

Which one, Detroit?