2011 CB Draft Western Playoffs: 1st Round

[indeedproceed]

Kyle Lowry Vs Russell Westbrook, in games where they played comparable minutes, both starting:

Lowry: 37 mins, 48.7% shooting, 37.5% 3pt (3 attempted per game), 80% FT, 4.3 rebs, 5 asts, 1.7 stls, 15.7 pts

Westbrook: 35 mins, 46.9% shooting, 0% 3pts (1 attempted), 74% FT, 5 Rebs, 9.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 21pts.

That's their last 3 meetings, where they played mins that matched, against a way worse Houston defense, and a way better OKC offense.

Nobody is debating whether Westbrook is going to get his points. He's gonna score. But, the fact is, Westbrook as a primary scorer is a bad recipe, because he already has ball movement issues. Then, factor in that the Spurs have no interior defense, less talented scorers in the paint, and a thinner bench, and I don't see how its close.

People want to accuse me of 'over-selling' my team, but let's be honest..if anyone's selling anything here, its Utah.

[indeedproceed]

Chris Bosh . . . is much, much better defensively than Big Al. 

Chris Bosh's defense isn't much, much better than anybody's, including Spud Webb's.

Big Al's defense is perhaps being maligned a bit unfairly, based solely upon reputation.  Last year, he was actually fairly respectable there.  He was top-50 league wide in both post-up and P&R defense, and his points per possession was 70th overall.  That's very good.  Even acknowledging that stats can be misleading, it's unlikely that Big Al would put up defensive numbers like that if he was abjectly terrible.  He's probably about average as a man-to-man defensive center, with the numbers saying he's above-average.

(For comparison sake, Bosh was 149th in the NBA on post-ups.  There's a reason Shaq called him the Ru-Paul of big men; he can't defend bigger players down low, period.)

I'll accept that, but Chris Bosh's defense was lauded by a lot of people over the course of the season. I understand he gets over-powered, but that's not going to be an issue with KG.

[indeedproceed]

Nene is a poor overall defender.

Not true.

[Roy H.]

People want to accuse me of 'over-selling' my team, but let's be honest..if anyone's selling anything here, its Utah.

You guys are both doing a pretty good job of selling.   

[mgent]

As Who(the GM of the Suns) said a few days ago: "Lebron will not be denied"...

Unlike every other NBA Playoffs he's ever participated in?

Has Lebron ever lost a first round series?

Well just like he's due for a season-ending injury, he's due for a first round choke. 

I'll say it again, this Suns team is 100 times better than any first round opponent LeBron has faced.

And I think his supporting cast is 100 times better than any that he has ever had prior to this heat team, where I think due to the way it was constructed they could not get the full ammount out of lebron.  This is basically Lebron's cleveland team on whatever steroids bonds and lance armstrong were on combined.  

I think that too.

I don't know about Armstrong though, when your muscles already produce half as much lactic acid as the average human do you really need steroids?

[dark_lord]

People want to accuse me of 'over-selling' my team, but let's be honest..if anyone's selling anything here, its Utah.

You guys are both doing a pretty good job of selling.   

but the real question is, who is buying?

[Kane3387]

I left the Grizzlies out of the playoffs because the bottom teams in the West were just too good, however they are a VERY dangerous playoff team.

Leaning toward the Warriors right now.  They've got the best bench in the game, hands down.

I'm not a big believer in the "deep bench" arguement in the palyoffs, but every contending team needs an unexpected push from someone to get them over the hump (ala JJ Barea/Joel Anthony).  A lot of times its impossible to detect where that will come from, but in a matchup like this i've got to think that, between David Lee/Thad Young/Andre Miller, the Warriors will get that big boost from a reserve that propels them into round 2.

I like Brandon Knight a lot, but i can't put him up against that trio.

I don't see Knight getting much run at all. Rose will be playing almost the whole game imo. I think Dirk gets the edge. He is a more efficient player then Rose.

I love Rose but his efficency goes down a bit in the playoffs. Look at the link below and scroll down to the end where it shows the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3456/derrick-rose

Rose shot as many shots as he scored points more then half the time. Meaning 22 shots to get 25 points. Add that to the fact he shot 8 free throws per game and it shows how much of a volume scorer he becomes in the playoffs. I think this is a detriment to the shooters he will be playing with.

I like the Warriors as of now as well, but that might change

[nickagneta]

IP and Kane just turned what was a pretty boring Western Conference first round into a very entertaining tet-a-tet in two different threads.

Thanks guys the civility of the Kings/Suns matchup was putting me to sleep.

[Kane3387]

IP and Kane just turned what was a pretty boring Western Conference first round into a very entertaining tet-a-tet in two different threads.

Thanks guys the civility of the Kings/Suns matchup was putting me to sleep.

Honestly Denver isn't really saying anything...

[StartOrien]

Jazz,

Defensively who covers Joe Johnson?

Also, I think you might be overstating his decline. Is there anything statistically that backs up your argument?

[indeedproceed]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/417354-nba-free-agency-drew-gooden-and-john-salmons-sign-with-the-bucks

Salmons was the spark that led the Bucks to their first playoff appearances in five seasons. The Bucks had a 22-8 record after Salmons' acquisition in February. He picked up much of the slack on the offensive end of the court after season-ending injuries to Michael Redd and Bogut.

22-8 is nothing to sneer at.

If you didn't see Andrew Bogut(notes) when you had a chance this season, well, I feel bad for you.

I can understand it. The Bucks aren't shown on national TV much. Jeff Van Gundy and klieg lights rarely show up in Milwaukee. So, unless you're local or a League Pass hound, you likely missed out.

You really missed out, by the way. Because Bogut was having a phenomenal season before he went down with an arm injury on Saturday night. So much so that, as we move farther and farther away from the All-Star Game, the fact that Bogut wasn't included on the Eastern roster seems all the more ridiculous. I will not be linking to my posts from the days leading up to it. We dropped the ball on that one.

Tom Haberstroh didn't drop the ball in this post. Right up the kilt and right to the point, Haberstroh comes through with a batch of stats to help illuminate just how brilliant Bogut was this season, especially defensively. Most impressive of all? Bogut's combined 3.82 blocks/steals/charges taken per game.

Not because of the total, mind you. Mainly because Andrew deserved Defensive Player of the Year consideration even if he halved that total. Quartered it, even. Quartered his draws.

Nobody moved side to side like Bogut this season. Dwight Howard(notes) came close, while still coming through with a heap of blocks and boards, but no player covered and showed and did all the little things defensively they don't really have stats for. If you drove on the Bucks this season, Bogut was there, changing your shot. Stopping your shot. Aiding you in the reconsideration of what you just attempted.

And it was so fun to watch. We've got a league full of big men that want to be Allen Iverson(notes) and while Bogut grew up wanting to be Toni Kukoc (who didn't?). The man played big. Played huge this season. Even missed a ton of his free throws, just to keep the stereotype going.

Bogut took 12 shots per game from inside 10 feet, Haberstroh points out. And that's for someone who didn't get the ball enough. He played close to the rim, changed things on both ends of the court and was the biggest reason why the Bucks are headed for the playoffs for the first time in four years. And he would have been the biggest reason behind a possible first-round "upset" of a team like the Hawks or Celtics. Bogut was that important, that effective, that dominant.

He's not going to be around for a while. Bogut's arm injury will take him out of the postseason, and that's an absolute shame. Because we won't be able to watch, and because Bogut and the Bucks will miss a chance to perform for the uninitiated in a nationally televised production. The Bucks are still going to stay in games -- they compete too hard, the team's particulars are still that good - but it won't be the same. Not without Bogut.

It's a downer, no doubt. Skeets and Tas asked me last week who we should be watching as the playoffs start to spark up, and the Bucks were the first thing that sprang to mind. Mainly because of Bogut. Mostly because of Bogut. It was pretty much all Bogut, and now that's all gone.

For a while, at least. Until 2010-11. He'll be fine by the fall. Watch him then. Pay attention while you have the chance.

That's from Kelly Dwyer, in response to a similar post from Tom Haberstroh (both names anyone who reads a lot of basketball should recognize as pretty legitimate writers).

Andrew Bogut was easily the Bucks best player in 09-10, and in 10-11.

[StartOrien]

In the interest of full discretion that article listed above is from 2010.

Not that it takes away from the point being made, as Bogut is relatively young, but it took me a little while to find the date.

[Kane3387]

Also I think there is a big point in this debate people are missing: Kane is aware that he'll be my next victim in the playoffs, and positioned himself as my main rival in the Northwest. It is in his interest to say things that are flat out not true or willfully half-true to discredit the awesomeness that is my team. Stuff like

:

Now that right there is low lol.  

Everything I say I defend.

I think your team is overrated and I am not scared of it. I welcome a match-up with you and will go down defending my team. Whether the board agrees or not is oblivious.

Again I am not scared to face you. Truth be told I was going to vote for you to win in 7 games and still I believe that and will, but your team is no juggernaut. I think HCA helps you out here and SA has less leadership.

That being said I want to face you. I believe I said that a while back right after the draft. Still let's keep this friendly. It's supposed to be fun but winning this thing would not be nearly as nice if Utah didn't go through Portland to do it.

[Donoghus]

I left the Grizzlies out of the playoffs because the bottom teams in the West were just too good, however they are a VERY dangerous playoff team.

Leaning toward the Warriors right now.  They've got the best bench in the game, hands down.

I'm not a big believer in the "deep bench" arguement in the palyoffs, but every contending team needs an unexpected push from someone to get them over the hump (ala JJ Barea/Joel Anthony).  A lot of times its impossible to detect where that will come from, but in a matchup like this i've got to think that, between David Lee/Thad Young/Andre Miller, the Warriors will get that big boost from a reserve that propels them into round 2.

I like Brandon Knight a lot, but i can't put him up against that trio.

I don't see Knight getting much run at all. Rose will be playing almost the whole game imo. I think Dirk gets the edge. He is a more efficient player then Rose.

I love Rose but his efficency goes down a bit in the playoffs. Look at the link below and scroll down to the end where it shows the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3456/derrick-rose

Rose shot as many shots as he scored points more then half the time. Meaning 22 shots to get 25 points. Add that to the fact he shot 8 free throws per game and it shows how much of a volume scorer he becomes in the playoffs. I think this is a detriment to the shooters he will be playing with.
I like the Warriors as of now as well, but that might change

I really don't think that Rose will be a detriment to the shooters he's playing with.  He was forced to carry much of the burden in the playoffs and certainly wasn't getting much help offensively from the players around him.  In essence, that issue led him to have to try and become the volume scorer for the Bulls but he certainly wasn't taking the ball all the time and looking off teammates. 

He was simply trying to do too much at times and he was often forced into that situation. 

He certainly doesn't carry the temperment of a "Me First" basketball player that can be a detriment on his teammates.

With Ray playing next to him, its my belief that Rose will have more confidence and will defer at times to Ray.  He'll work with Ray and find him. I think they're near-perfect complementary pieces.

Rose finally has a shooting guard besides him that will take some of the offensive emphasis off Rose. 

[StartOrien]

Nuggets,

How do you see the big man matchups playing? What's your plan there defenisvely? Who guards who?