2011 CB Draft Western Playoffs: 1st Round

[RebusRankin]

Rebus, will you have Boozer on Amare or Bogut?

Boozer on Amare, Kaman on Bogut, Thomas rotating in to help based on who's scoring more/foul trouble.

[Kane3387]

This is going to be a real tough matchup to call. I like both of these teams a lot.

I agree. I need to know who Denver will be getting the ball too in late game situations and why they think that will be to their advantage. Also, Bosh can turtle at times versus KG, will that be a problem here. Can Nene neutralize Jefferson in the low post? How will the bench be used and to what extent?

I also need to hear from Utah and listen to the reason why he thinks Pierce and KG won't have the inconsistent, up and down post season game to game like they did this year. It seems they can bring it one game and then not the next. Is that age? is that the beginning of the end? And without a PG that gets them their shots where they want them and when they want them will that make things even worse?  How extensive is Crawford's involvement as a PG handling the ball when he is in the game because everyone knows that he looks for his shot before anyone else's?

What is this for?

[StartOrien]

Rebus, will you have Boozer on Amare or Bogut?

Boozer on Amare, Kaman on Bogut, Thomas rotating in to help based on who's scoring more/foul trouble.

Roughly how many minutes per contest do you expect out of Kurt Thomas? What about Amir?

[StartOrien]

This is going to be a real tough matchup to call. I like both of these teams a lot.

I agree. I need to know who Denver will be getting the ball too in late game situations and why they think that will be to their advantage. Also, Bosh can turtle at times versus KG, will that be a problem here. Can Nene neutralize Jefferson in the low post? How will the bench be used and to what extent?

I also need to hear from Utah and listen to the reason why he thinks Pierce and KG won't have the inconsistent, up and down post season game to game like they did this year. It seems they can bring it one game and then not the next. Is that age? is that the beginning of the end? And without a PG that gets them their shots where they want them and when they want them will that make things even worse?  How extensive is Crawford's involvement as a PG handling the ball when he is in the game because everyone knows that he looks for his shot before anyone else's?

What is this for?

I thought Nick had a lot of great questions in here, and many of them lie unaddressed.

[Kane3387]

Look I am not trying to say that I will blow Denver out. I think the games will be close. Like most playoff games they will come down to the final 5 minutes. Then the team that executes better normally wins and homecourt is big advantage.

I trust a KG and Paul Pierce led team to out execute a Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh type team in crunch time in the playoffs next season. I also think my depth is better and gives me an advantage. I have arguably the three best rebounders on my team in this series. The best low post scorer, best defender, and best perimeter player. Overall I believe I have the two best players as well. Pierce will be the best player on the court because he will not be required to play a lot of defense against a great scorer on the wing. I also have the two best leaders.

[Kane3387]

I also need to hear from Utah and listen to the reason why he thinks Pierce and KG won't have the inconsistent, up and down post season game to game like they did this year. It seems they can bring it one game and then not the next. Is that age? is that the beginning of the end? And without a PG that gets them their shots where they want them and when they want them will that make things even worse?  How extensive is Crawford's involvement as a PG handling the ball when he is in the game because everyone knows that he looks for his shot before anyone else's?

I am not worried about Pierce and his scoring ability because he doesn't have to defend anyone in this series for the majority of the game.

Pierce scoring against NY - 18, 20, 38, 13
Against Miami - 19, 13, 27, 27, and 12

These numbers are good considering he was defending Carmelo Anthony and LBJ in these series. Dorell Wright and Mbah a Moute... I mean it's not even close.

As for KG. His main priority is defense and the rebounding on the defensive end. As we all know on offense he will spread it around. We will work out of the high post with KG a lot. His offense will be sporadic but so will Bosh's offense due to KG's defense.

As for the PG. Crawford is going to be asked to score when he is in. The guy is a scorer and to ask him otherwise would be a mistake. I think he can play well with the second unit and provide relief for KG and Pierce. To ask KG and Pierce to carry the load offensively for 48 minutes is a mistake. This is a team and everyone is capable of going off. I see this team as a much much better "real-life" Denver Nuggets team in that we have a ton of guys who can get it done on offense. Defensively we will be tough and that will feed our offense as well.

Baron Davis will create for this team as well. He is a career 7 Apg player just like Lebron is. He is not going to be asked to carry the offense and will be fine running the team. He can play a similar role to the one Billups did for Detroit as far as balancing when to shoot and pass. Davis has a high B-Ball IQ and will buy in to team much like everyone else who has played with KG and Pierce.

SO please see above and please let me know what you want me to go into further detail about.

[Kane3387]

my vote goes to spurs

I really like San Antonio too and think this is the team Portland didn't want to see. I mean assuming full health do people think Bogut is a huge upgrade over Kaman? They're almost the same player to me.

Both Amare and Boozer leave a lot to be desired on defense but I think they are close on offense from a production stand point assuming full health.

Westbrook to me is arguably the best player on the court... I mean he can be unstoppable sometimes. He's truthfully almost as good as Derrick Rose, but he has more of a leash on him because he plays with Durant. On this team he gets to play the Derrick Rose type role.

[Roy H.]

I mean assuming full health do people think Bogut is a huge upgrade over Kaman? They're almost the same player to me.

Really?  Even fully healthy, I don't think that Kaman is 1/4 the defensive player that Bogut is.

[StartOrien]

SO please see above and please let me know what you want me to go into further detail about.

For clarification above, are you saying that when Crawford is in at "point guard' you'd have Pierce initiate the offense?

[Fafnir]

I mean assuming full health do people think Bogut is a huge upgrade over Kaman? They're almost the same player to me.

Really?  Even fully healthy, I don't think that Kaman is 1/4 the defensive player that Bogut is.

Not to mention that when both are healthy Kaman isn't even that much better of an offensive player. Not by nearly a big enough margin to make up the gap on the other end of the floor.

[Kane3387]

I mean assuming full health do people think Bogut is a huge upgrade over Kaman? They're almost the same player to me.

Really?  Even fully healthy, I don't think that Kaman is 1/4 the defensive player that Bogut is.

That's fair but look at what IP said.

Quote
Anyway anyone could provide H2H stats of Amare V Boozer and Kaman V Bogut?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bogutan01&p2=kamanch01
-Kaman outscores Bogut career-wise and in their most recent game (over a year time-wise and an NBA-season ago), but they've been playing since Bogut was a rookie, and not as often in the last 2-3 years due to injuries on both their parts. Chris Kaman in his prime though (look at games from 07-08 on) has been less than consistent against Bogut, and since Kaman's not bringing much to the table that isn't on the stat-sheet, (Bad passer, defender esp), I'm not worried about this matchup. 13 points or so for Bogut, and 15 or so for Kaman is about what their recent play predicts, especially since they haven't played each other since Bogut was 23 years old.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=stoudam01&p2=boozeca01

-Amare shoots better, scores better, and rebounds worse. Career-wise Amare is a 54% shooter, against Boozer in 19 games over the total of his career, he's a 54% shooter. Boozer is a career 54% shooter. In 19 games over the totality of his career against Amar'e Stoudemire, Boozer is a 50% shooter. This is a big win for the Blazers.

Plus, lets consider how well Boozer played in the playoffs next to a score-first point guard who was maybe the only starting point guard to pass the ball LESS often than Russell Westbrook.

Boozer won't have the ball in his hands because Westbrook can't get it there, and he won't be able to do nearly as much damage

It doesn't sound like Amare and Bogut dominates that matchup.

Also what about the Afflalo V Harden match up? I think that's a good battle myself. Afflalo is a tough defender and good shooter. Harden is a solid offensive player also. I would like to see people's thoughts on this.

Grant Hill V Delfino... Ehh I don't see that being an impactful (not a word lol I know) matchup. I do see Delfino on Carter and Hill on Williams being impactful though.

To me it's like this:

How much can Boozer and Kaman match up with Amare and Bogut?

How much can Lowry contain Russ?

What wins?  Harden's O or Afflalo's D?

What bench plays better? Vinsanity led bench vs Williams led bench. This is tricky bc Vince has always started and Williams has never played a game let alone a playoff game.

I think this series could easily go 7 games. It's very competitive.

[Who]

Boozer's career stats against Amare are irrelevant because he has never faced Amare when Amare had a center of Bogut's defensive abilities alongside him.

Boozer feasted on weak Phoenix Suns and NY Knicks teams that had little to no interior defense. That is not the case with this Portland Trailblazers team.

Andrew Bogut is one of the best interior defenders in the league. It's a game changer.

[Roy H.]

^ I don't draw many conclusions on Bogut vs. Kaman based upon H2H numbers.  They've played 7 games in 6 years; that's not really much of a sample size.  Also, H2H doesn't take into account affects on team defense, etc.

As for Amare vs. Boozer, Amare is a better scorer, and Boozer is a better rebounder.  Neither is really going to slow the other down very much, if they're matched up H2H.

[Kane3387]

I mean assuming full health do people think Bogut is a huge upgrade over Kaman? They're almost the same player to me.

Really?  Even fully healthy, I don't think that Kaman is 1/4 the defensive player that Bogut is.

Not to mention that when both are healthy Kaman isn't even that much better of an offensive player. Not by nearly a big enough margin to make up the gap on the other end of the floor.

Looking at 2009-10. The last season both were at their healthiest and also the best season either ever had career wise.

Bogut 15.9 pts, 2.5 blks, 10.1 boards, 63% free throw, 52% Field Goal
Kaman 18.5 pts, 1.2 blks, 9.2 boards, 75% free throw, 49% Field Goal

Fully healthy Bogut had the edge on the boards and protecting the rim, but Kaman was the better offensive player overall when you factor in free throws. I think in as close a series as this will be that must be factored in because you will be more hesitant to put the ball in a bad free throw shooter's hands at the end of games.

I just don't see a Huge advantage here. I would want Bogut more but if I missed on him and had to settle for Kaman I wouldn't go crazy.

They're both slow, unathletic 7 footers who shoot with either hand and have very good footwork. Their PERs are very similar and neither is the second best player on a title team. Only thing is, is that Kaman is the third best player on his team while Bogut is the second best.

[Kane3387]

^ I don't draw many conclusions on Bogut vs. Kaman based upon H2H numbers.  They've played 7 games in 6 years; that's not really much of a sample size.  Also, H2H doesn't take into account affects on team defense, etc.

As for Amare vs. Boozer, Amare is a better scorer, and Boozer is a better rebounder.  Neither is really going to slow the other down very much, if they're matched up H2H.

That's why I think this series is about how well you think Lowry contains Westbrook. Russ is the X factor.