Like someone said, every game seems hard to gage these days. LVR has beat some weaker teams, giving up a lot of yards. They have a very good net turnover (+3). The Pats have been stingy with yards given up but have coughed it up a lot (-5 net turnovers). I don't think you need to be an analytics genius to figure out what the key to the game is (take care of the ball stupid).
Even all banged up as the defense is right now, I think at home they are the better team. But not enough better that they can overcome playing bad (turnovers, penalties, whatever). I am hoping that the Pats will be able to run the ball vs. LVR. Mix in enough efficient passing to keep them honest. All the injuries on defense for the Pats is a concern, but I am not convinced that Cousins and the rest are good enough to take advantage of that.
One thing I continue to see as a weakness is containing the edge. It is defense 101 (I was an OLB in high school). You have to hold the edge. I continue to see sloppy play on the edge against the run. That should be so easy to fix. Players over pursue or think sack too much and boom, a big play off the edge. Having Jones back should help. I believe this is exactly why he is here. Not for sacks, but to hold the edge.