2011 CB Draft Western Playoffs: 1st Round

[Kane3387]

Boozer's career stats against Amare are irrelevant because he has never faced Amare when Amare had a center of Bogut's defensive abilities alongside him.

Boozer feasted on weak Phoenix Suns and NY Knicks teams that had little to no interior defense. That is not the case with this Portland Trailblazers team.

Andrew Bogut is one of the best interior defenders in the league. It's a game changer.

I wouldn't say that Mehmet Okur was scaring Amare that much either...

I think you're missing Who's point.

Boozer likely won't be able to replicate his success against Amar'e because Bogut is one of the best defensive 5s in the league.

Amar'e on the other hand faces a weak defensive front court similar to Utahs all those years if not worse.

Boozer scores a lot on pick and roll and jump shots. Bogut will protect the rim more but it won't stop Boozer on the pick and pop and Boozer will still get offensive put backs because Bogut can't block both Boozer and Kaman out.

Boozer scores most of his points in the paint.

8.8 PPG compared to 5.8 PPG off of jump shots this past year. That's consistent with his time in Utah as well, 60% or more of his scoring is from his inside game. Bogut's interior defense will definitely have an effect on his offense.

I see where you are going with this and I agree to an extent but when Bogut rotates to help out Amare on Boozer what is to stop boozer from then dishing it to Kaman for a layup? Unless Bogut is defending Boozer himself I don't see how his defense is going to make Boozer that much worse... His weak side rotation will leave Kaman open or with a smaller player on him a lot of times. Kaman can hit the fifteen footer too so if Boozer is on the block I would think Kaman is at the free throw line. There should be spacing for Boozer to make a quick move.

[jgod213]

I left the Grizzlies out of the playoffs because the bottom teams in the West were just too good, however they are a VERY dangerous playoff team.

Leaning toward the Warriors right now.  They've got the best bench in the game, hands down.

I'm not a big believer in the "deep bench" arguement in the palyoffs, but every contending team needs an unexpected push from someone to get them over the hump (ala JJ Barea/Joel Anthony).  A lot of times its impossible to detect where that will come from, but in a matchup like this i've got to think that, between David Lee/Thad Young/Andre Miller, the Warriors will get that big boost from a reserve that propels them into round 2.

I like Brandon Knight a lot, but i can't put him up against that trio.

[Fafnir]

This brings up another topic. How fast is Portland playing? Amare plays fast and Bigut doesn't. Where is the in between where they both are playing to their max ability successfully? I've questioned this pairing from the beginning on this and still have never gotten an answer?

IP has answered it repeatedly. The following is in this thread, he also addressed it in his press conference.

In transition, my team is brutal for the Spurs. Lowry is as fast as Westbrook, and better defensively. Amar'e Stoudemire and Derrick Williams should be one of the most dangerous forward tandem in transition in this fake league. James Harden ranks out statistically as the 33rd best player in the league in transition, and Carlos Delfino is more than capable of hitting a corner 3 in transition.

THat's important, because I have the league's leader in blocks per game, and the 3rd best player at blocking a shot while not being assessed a personal foul in Andrew Bogut. Combine that with Kyle Lowry's All-NBA level defense, and even Amar'e Stoudemire's 7th best in the NBA 1.91 blocks per game, and there will be ample opportunity for transition baskets from my dangerous forwards while Boozer, Kaman, and Hill struggle back.

Now you might say that Bogut holds this team back from getting out in transition, and if I make Bogut the focal point of my offense, you'd be somewhat right here. He's nowhere near the lumbering leviathan that Kaman is, but Bogut is hardly spry when considered next to Williams, STAT, or Jerebko.

But, Bogut is one of the best big-man passers in the NBA. With his nearly 3 blocks per game, and rebounding ability, Bogut should have plenty of time to let out a smart outlet pass. He doesn't have to be the first guy down there to help my team in transition, he's just got to get the ball to the guys to help put one of my finishers in a position to do damage, and he's fully capable of doing that

Centers don't really hold a team back from fast breaking, not if they outlet the ball willingly and accurately.

[dark_lord]

i said this in another post, where i listed my vote and why:


Memphis- VERY underrated around here! rose, ray, prince is an awesome backcourt/wing combo. throw in spot up shooters korver and redd to compliment rose's penetration and it makes the bench a big threat. also like hibbert/hawes center depth.



i like memphis a lot. rose winning the mvp wasnt a fluke. he is scary good!

[Kane3387]

I also like Jamal having the ball with the shot clock winding down.

Why?

Crawford is very good at creating a shot for himself. He can get his shot off almost anytime and that's needed when the clock is winding down and time is running out.

You have a more efficient option on your team one who's more willing to pass the ball too.

I'm stunned that you'd select Crawford to be your late game iso guy.

Crawford is great at taking shots, okay at making them, and terrible at most other things.

Well hold on now. I am not saying that. I was asked how I would like Crawford to play with the ball when he is in at PG. I did that and then added in as an aside I like what Crawford can do when he has the ball with the clock running down.

I didn't say give Crawford the ball with the game on the line in an iso situation. Crawford can actually make plays in this scenario but I would rather draw up a play then go this route anyways. If I HAD to go this route then I am comfortable with Pierce, Butler, Baron, or Crawford doing this although my first preference would be Pierce.

[indeedproceed]

I mean assuming full health do people think Bogut is a huge upgrade over Kaman? They're almost the same player to me.

Really?  Even fully healthy, I don't think that Kaman is 1/4 the defensive player that Bogut is.

Not to mention that when both are healthy Kaman isn't even that much better of an offensive player. Not by nearly a big enough margin to make up the gap on the other end of the floor.

Looking at 2009-10. The last season both were at their healthiest and also the best season either ever had career wise.

Bogut 15.9 pts, 2.5 blks, 10.1 boards, 63% free throw, 52% Field Goal
Kaman 18.5 pts, 1.2 blks, 9.2 boards, 75% free throw, 49% Field Goal

Fully healthy Bogut had the edge on the boards and protecting the rim, but Kaman was the better offensive player overall when you factor in free throws. I think in as close a series as this will be that must be factored in because you will be more hesitant to put the ball in a bad free throw shooter's hands at the end of games.

I just don't see a Huge advantage here. I would want Bogut more but if I missed on him and had to settle for Kaman I wouldn't go crazy.

They're both slow, unathletic 7 footers who shoot with either hand and have very good footwork. Their PERs are very similar and neither is the second best player on a title team. Only thing is, is that Kaman is the third best player on his team while Bogut is the second best.

http://bkref.com/tiny/O22Ia

Look at the numbers again, in paricular the advanced statistics. Bogut actually had a better offensive efficiency due to his much lower turnover rate and also superior eFG%.

The difference in rebounds is even greater when you note that Kaman played more minutes for a faster paced team, and the difference in defense is huge.

And passing, and decision making....

TO say that Bogut will shut down Kaman isn't being fair to Rebus. Chris Kaman can score. Or, if I wanted to be trendy, he can 'score the basketball'. But, Bogut holds him below his career averages, and brings a lot more to the table than the scoring or basic boxscore would show you. There is no marker for 'altered shots due to great team defense', or 'turnovers not made because you're one of the best passing bigs in the league, and rarely force shots out of double-teams when you don't have to, or force shots at all'.

In case I didn't make my case clear before, Bogut is a huge huge advantage over Kaman, in the same way that any two-way player that is an elite defensive talent is a huge, huge advantage over a player that is just a scorer, and nothing else.

Also, if we're comparing Amar'e vs Bogut, to see who wins that matchup, I don't see how Amar'e doesn't absolutely murder him. He shoots a higher %, he's got a better jumper, he's a better finisher at the rim, and of the two 'scorers who don't play much defense or pass particularly well', Amare is hands down the better scorer.

On top of that he's got a point guard who is the far better distributor to play the pick and roll game with, along with a scorer on the wing (Harden), who is just as if not more capable of scoring in pick and roll situations than Lowry.

Don't get me wrong, I think that the Spurs assembled a good team, and they're much better than a 7 seed, but they don't match up with me talent-wise, fit-wise, or awesome-wise. I'm better offensively and defensively.

[Fafnir]

I see where you are going with this and I agree to an extent but when Bogut rotates to help out Amare on Boozer what is to stop boozer from then dishing it to Kaman for a layup?

Rotation, the wing has to rotate down to protect against that.

His weak side rotation will leave Kaman open or with a smaller player on him a lot of times. Kaman can hit the fifteen footer too so if Boozer is on the block I would think Kaman is at the free throw line. There should be spacing for Boozer to make a quick move.

Wait is this the pick and roll or a post up?

Unless Bogut is defending Boozer himself I don't see how his defense is going to make Boozer that much worse...

A good defensive big man not only guards his man but he anchors the defense, he helps limit everyone on the court by doing so. Do KG and Dwight Howard help limit the big man they aren't directly guarding? Is it an accident that the Bucks have been some of the best defensive teams in the league since Skiles got Bogut playing all-nba level defense at the C position?

[Kane3387]

This brings up another topic. How fast is Portland playing? Amare plays fast and Bigut doesn't. Where is the in between where they both are playing to their max ability successfully? I've questioned this pairing from the beginning on this and still have never gotten an answer?

IP has answered it repeatedly. The following is in this thread, he also addressed it in his press conference.

In transition, my team is brutal for the Spurs. Lowry is as fast as Westbrook, and better defensively. Amar'e Stoudemire and Derrick Williams should be one of the most dangerous forward tandem in transition in this fake league. James Harden ranks out statistically as the 33rd best player in the league in transition, and Carlos Delfino is more than capable of hitting a corner 3 in transition.

THat's important, because I have the league's leader in blocks per game, and the 3rd best player at blocking a shot while not being assessed a personal foul in Andrew Bogut. Combine that with Kyle Lowry's All-NBA level defense, and even Amar'e Stoudemire's 7th best in the NBA 1.91 blocks per game, and there will be ample opportunity for transition baskets from my dangerous forwards while Boozer, Kaman, and Hill struggle back.

Now you might say that Bogut holds this team back from getting out in transition, and if I make Bogut the focal point of my offense, you'd be somewhat right here. He's nowhere near the lumbering leviathan that Kaman is, but Bogut is hardly spry when considered next to Williams, STAT, or Jerebko.

But, Bogut is one of the best big-man passers in the NBA. With his nearly 3 blocks per game, and rebounding ability, Bogut should have plenty of time to let out a smart outlet pass. He doesn't have to be the first guy down there to help my team in transition, he's just got to get the ball to the guys to help put one of my finishers in a position to do damage, and he's fully capable of doing that

Centers don't really hold a team back from fast breaking, not if they outlet the ball willingly and accurately.

Good points here IP. Faf thanks I missed this.

[Fafnir]

I also like Jamal having the ball with the shot clock winding down.

Why?

Crawford is very good at creating a shot for himself. He can get his shot off almost anytime and that's needed when the clock is winding down and time is running out.

You have a more efficient option on your team one who's more willing to pass the ball too.

I'm stunned that you'd select Crawford to be your late game iso guy.

Crawford is great at taking shots, okay at making them, and terrible at most other things.

Let's not put words in his mouth. He said he likes him with the clock going down, not that he'd be THE guy

Fair enough, I just don't find anything to like about Jamal Crawford with the shot clock going down.

Crawford will do one thing in that situation, chuck up a bad shot. Crawford is a gifted offensive player, his awful decision making is why his efficiency has never been good.

[Fafnir]

I also like Jamal having the ball with the shot clock winding down.

Why?

Crawford is very good at creating a shot for himself. He can get his shot off almost anytime and that's needed when the clock is winding down and time is running out.

You have a more efficient option on your team one who's more willing to pass the ball too.

I'm stunned that you'd select Crawford to be your late game iso guy.

Crawford is great at taking shots, okay at making them, and terrible at most other things.

Well hold on now. I am not saying that. I was asked how I would like Crawford to play with the ball when he is in at PG. I did that and then added in as an aside I like what Crawford can do when he has the ball with the clock running down.

I didn't say give Crawford the ball with the game on the line in an iso situation. Crawford can actually make plays in this scenario but I would rather draw up a play then go this route anyways. If I HAD to go this route then I am comfortable with Pierce, Butler, Baron, or Crawford doing this although my first preference would be Pierce.

My mistake.

[dark_lord]

this is from my post that i said my vote and why:


Spurs- i like the amare/bogut combo but i think boozer/kamen combo is solid. throw in the westbook advantage and the versatility of affalo,hill, and VC and i think they win series

[jgod213]

I'm real close to leaning with Bost...Utah here, but i just hate B-Diddy at the point.  Is Paul Pierce doing all the playmaking here? is he going to wear down if he's been doing it all season?

Further, Caron Butler has never been able to duplicate a good shooting season in back to back years.  If i were the coach of the Nugs, why wouln't i just continually help off of Butler and Davis and leave them to spot up?

[Rondo2287]

This brings up another topic. How fast is Portland playing? Amare plays fast and Bigut doesn't. Where is the in between where they both are playing to their max ability successfully? I've questioned this pairing from the beginning on this and still have never gotten an answer?

IP has answered it repeatedly. The following is in this thread, he also addressed it in his press conference.

In transition, my team is brutal for the Spurs. Lowry is as fast as Westbrook, and better defensively. Amar'e Stoudemire and Derrick Williams should be one of the most dangerous forward tandem in transition in this fake league. James Harden ranks out statistically as the 33rd best player in the league in transition, and Carlos Delfino is more than capable of hitting a corner 3 in transition.

THat's important, because I have the league's leader in blocks per game, and the 3rd best player at blocking a shot while not being assessed a personal foul in Andrew Bogut. Combine that with Kyle Lowry's All-NBA level defense, and even Amar'e Stoudemire's 7th best in the NBA 1.91 blocks per game, and there will be ample opportunity for transition baskets from my dangerous forwards while Boozer, Kaman, and Hill struggle back.

Now you might say that Bogut holds this team back from getting out in transition, and if I make Bogut the focal point of my offense, you'd be somewhat right here. He's nowhere near the lumbering leviathan that Kaman is, but Bogut is hardly spry when considered next to Williams, STAT, or Jerebko.

But, Bogut is one of the best big-man passers in the NBA. With his nearly 3 blocks per game, and rebounding ability, Bogut should have plenty of time to let out a smart outlet pass. He doesn't have to be the first guy down there to help my team in transition, he's just got to get the ball to the guys to help put one of my finishers in a position to do damage, and he's fully capable of doing that

Centers don't really hold a team back from fast breaking, not if they outlet the ball willingly and accurately.

Little known fact, while Harden is ranked 33rd in the league in transition, I am ranked numbers 30, 31, and 32. 

[indeedproceed]

Also I think there is a big point in this debate people are missing: Kane is aware that he'll be my next victim in the playoffs, and positioned himself as my main rival in the Northwest. It is in his interest to say things that are flat out not true or willfully half-true to discredit the awesomeness that is my team. Stuff like:

They're both slow, unathletic 7 footers who shoot with either hand and have very good footwork. Their PERs are very similar and neither is the second best player on a title team. Only thing is, is that Kaman is the third best player on his team while Bogut is the second best.

1) Bogut isn't slow or unathletic, for a center. He's actually more athletic than most centers in the league. Its a big part of the reason why he's an elite defensive talent, as opposed to just a rim-deterrant like Greg Ostertag or Yao Ming

2) Bogut has been the best player on the Milwaukee Bucks for the last 2 seasons, and it was because of his play that they even made the playoffs in '10.

You see what I'm dealing with here?

this is from my post that i said my vote and why:


Spurs- i like the amare/bogut combo but i think boozer/kamen combo is solid. throw in the westbook advantage and the versatility of affalo,hill, and VC and i think they win series

Well, you weren't high on my squad during the regular season, but in the hopes of converting everyone to team Portlandia, did you read this:

This has the makings of a good series. San Antonio definitely has the X factor in Westbrook.

I agree. Russell Westbrook is a huge factor in this series. He's the X-Factor because he's what many people describe as the biggest reason behind the Thunder's collapse against the Mavericks. He's the biggest factor because despite playing alongside two of the best young scorers in the NBA, and arguably its best scorer in Durant, Westbrook maintains one of the worst Assist Ratios of starting points in the league, behind other 'shoot first' guards like Mo Williams, JJ Barea, Mike Bibby, and Jerryd Bayless. Here is what Seth Pollack has to say about it (and Seth Pollack is one of the main writers for SB Nation.com's NBA site)

The fact is James Harden has been a better all around basketball player in the 2011 NBA Playoffs then the highly touted (and in my opinion, overrated) Russell Westbrook.

If you've been watching the Thunder at all, you've seen the offense stall countless times with the ball in Westbrook's hands as he drives into traffic and takes bad shots.

At the end of the third quarter of Thursday's Game 3 in Dallas, coach Scott Brooks had enough. After yet another turnover, Brooks benched Westbrook for the fourth quarter and instead of blowing a 16-point lead like they did against the Grizzlies, the Thunder out-scored the Mavericks 29-24 and won a huge road playoff game.

I love James Harden and had the pleasure of watching him play at Arizona State so clearly there's a bias. I've interviewed both players several times and it's obvious between the two who is more mature and shows more signs of being a great leader. All that aside, however, the numbers are also clearly in favor of Harden.

-Russell Westbrook leads all players in the 2011 NBA Playoffs with 62 turnovers. Number two on that list is Derrick Rose with 46. Westbrook has 16 more turnovers than the MVP despite playing similar minutes and the same amount of games.

-Harden on 44 possessions as the pick and roll ball handler in the playoffs has converted on 46.2 percent of his attempts. That ranks the 21-year-old shooting guard as "Very Good" according to Synergy Sports Tech data.

-Westbrook on 141 possessions at the pick and roll ball handler in the 2011 NBA Playoffs has shot 33.6 percent which is rated "Below Average".

-Harden (.762 aFG%) has been better in transition than Westbrook (.574 aFG%) and far better in isolation (Harden, .955 aFG%. Westbrook, .355 aFG%). In fact, James Harden is 9-11 in isolation which makes him the top-ranked player in the 2011 NBA Playoffs in that category.

It's decision making that really sets the two apart. Former coach and ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy has said time and again on the broadcast that Harden is the better passer with the better court vision and does a much better job setting up his teammates.

I think Vince Carter gives you something off the bench too. I think this could be an upset.

I think of the two benches, mine is the one more likely to be a difference maker (Williams, Sessions, Morrow, Jerebko).  

Anyway anyone could provide H2H stats of Amare V Boozer and Kaman V Bogut?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bogutan01&p2=kamanch01
-Kaman outscores Bogut career-wise and in their most recent game (over a year time-wise and an NBA-season ago), but they've been playing since Bogut was a rookie, and not as often in the last 2-3 years due to injuries on both their parts. Chris Kaman in his prime though (look at games from 07-08 on) has been less than consistent against Bogut, and since Kaman's not bringing much to the table that isn't on the stat-sheet, (Bad passer, defender esp), I'm not worried about this matchup. 13 points or so for Bogut, and 15 or so for Kaman is about what their recent play predicts, especially since they haven't played each other since Bogut was 23 years old.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=stoudam01&p2=boozeca01

-Amare shoots better, scores better, and rebounds worse. Career-wise Amare is a 54% shooter, against Boozer in 19 games over the total of his career, he's a 54% shooter. Boozer is a career 54% shooter. In 19 games over the totality of his career against Amar'e Stoudemire, Boozer is a 50% shooter. This is a big win for the Blazers.

Plus, lets consider how well Boozer played in the playoffs next to a score-first point guard who was maybe the only starting point guard to pass the ball LESS often than Russell Westbrook.

Boozer won't have the ball in his hands because Westbrook can't get it there, and he won't be able to do nearly as much damage.

IP, i know your squad is capable of really getting up and down the court - but i don't know if i'd want to turn this into a track meet with the Spurs.  You have the far superior half-court offense with a couple of big men who should each see the ball every time down court.  They should have a huge advantage on the block.  I think you're more likely to contain Westbrook and force mistakes from him in that type of tempo.

I'm very interested to know how the 6th men will effect this series.  Two big wildcards in Vinsanity and The Rook.

Point 1) I agree, that I don't want to run-first. Its my second option. My first option is a half-court set with Lowry and Harden dominating in a pick and roll-setting with Amar'e and Bogut. Both guys are gifted passers and good decision makers, and both guys can finish in traffic. When Bogut is out there, I'm only looking to get out in transition when the opportunity presents its self, ie blocks, steals, long rebounds.

Point 2) I think that Vince is going to have a tough time of it. Between James Harden and Carlos Deflino, if Vince shows any life I've got a capable defender ready to get out there and try to slow his choking-butt down.

Derrick Williams however isn't all peaches and herb either. I don't worry about him when he's matched up against Grant Hill; he's just too strong and too gifted a scorer. I don't worry about him matched up against Amir Johnson, he's too quick, too strong and too gifted a scorer.

But I do wonder how he'll matchup against Al-Farouq Aminu. They never played each other in college, and TBH I've never seen Aminu play extended minutes. However, Aminu has the size and quickness to matchup with Williams, but not the strength.

On the bright side though Aminu isn't bringing much offensive production, and I think my over-stated concerns aside, Derrick Williams will be fine against him as well.

[Kane3387]

I see where you are going with this and I agree to an extent but when Bogut rotates to help out Amare on Boozer what is to stop boozer from then dishing it to Kaman for a layup?

Rotation, the wing has to rotate down to protect against that.

His weak side rotation will leave Kaman open or with a smaller player on him a lot of times. Kaman can hit the fifteen footer too so if Boozer is on the block I would think Kaman is at the free throw line. There should be spacing for Boozer to make a quick move.

Wait is this the pick and roll or a post up?

Unless Bogut is defending Boozer himself I don't see how his defense is going to make Boozer that much worse...

A good defensive big man not only guards his man but he anchors the defense, he helps limit everyone on the court by doing so. Do KG and Dwight Howard help limit the big man they aren't directly guarding? Is it an accident that the Bucks have been some of the best defensive teams in the league since Skiles got Bogut playing all-nba level defense at the C position?

It helps with the style of pace Milwaukee plays at. It's a reason they are always in the bottom in scoring. Bogut is a good anchor, but to make it sound like his presence is going to shutdown two All Star big men is too much for me. I just don't see Boozer and Kaman getting dominated here. Outplayed? Yes. Dominated? No. Also Russell's penetration will create issues for Portland in the way of fouls and dump offs to the bigs.

Westbrook averaged 21 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds per game V Lowry. He averaged only 2 TOs.  Westbrook got the better of him in their match-ups with Lowry averaging 12.4 points, 4.8 assists, and 4.8 boards. He had 1.8 TOs. The Assists are what stands out. Also Russ is an underrated defender and his size and athleticism are tough for Lowry to deal with. Lowry's 3 point shooting dropped 7% against Okc.

This whole time we have been debating against SA 2nd and 3rd best player vs Portland's 1st and 2nd. Again I think not enough is being made about how Portland can stop Westbrook by the posters in this thread. I would like to hear your thoughts on this though.