This has the makings of a good series. San Antonio definitely has the X factor in Westbrook.
I agree. Russell Westbrook is a huge factor in this series. He's the X-Factor because he's what many people describe as the biggest reason behind the Thunder's collapse against the Mavericks. He's the biggest factor because despite playing alongside two of the best young scorers in the NBA, and arguably its best scorer in Durant, Westbrook maintains one of the worst Assist Ratios of starting points in the league, behind other 'shoot first' guards like Mo Williams, JJ Barea, Mike Bibby, and Jerryd Bayless. Here is what Seth Pollack has to say about it (and Seth Pollack is one of the main writers for SB Nation.com's NBA site)
The fact is James Harden has been a better all around basketball player in the 2011 NBA Playoffs then the highly touted (and in my opinion, overrated) Russell Westbrook.
If you've been watching the Thunder at all, you've seen the offense stall countless times with the ball in Westbrook's hands as he drives into traffic and takes bad shots.
At the end of the third quarter of Thursday's Game 3 in Dallas, coach Scott Brooks had enough. After yet another turnover, Brooks benched Westbrook for the fourth quarter and instead of blowing a 16-point lead like they did against the Grizzlies, the Thunder out-scored the Mavericks 29-24 and won a huge road playoff game.
I love James Harden and had the pleasure of watching him play at Arizona State so clearly there's a bias. I've interviewed both players several times and it's obvious between the two who is more mature and shows more signs of being a great leader. All that aside, however, the numbers are also clearly in favor of Harden.
-Russell Westbrook leads all players in the 2011 NBA Playoffs with 62 turnovers. Number two on that list is Derrick Rose with 46. Westbrook has 16 more turnovers than the MVP despite playing similar minutes and the same amount of games.
-Harden on 44 possessions as the pick and roll ball handler in the playoffs has converted on 46.2 percent of his attempts. That ranks the 21-year-old shooting guard as "Very Good" according to Synergy Sports Tech data.
-Westbrook on 141 possessions at the pick and roll ball handler in the 2011 NBA Playoffs has shot 33.6 percent which is rated "Below Average".
-Harden (.762 aFG%) has been better in transition than Westbrook (.574 aFG%) and far better in isolation (Harden, .955 aFG%. Westbrook, .355 aFG%). In fact, James Harden is 9-11 in isolation which makes him the top-ranked player in the 2011 NBA Playoffs in that category.
It's decision making that really sets the two apart. Former coach and ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy has said time and again on the broadcast that Harden is the better passer with the better court vision and does a much better job setting up his teammates.
I think Vince Carter gives you something off the bench too. I think this could be an upset.
I think of the two benches, mine is the one more likely to be a difference maker (Williams, Sessions, Morrow, Jerebko).
Anyway anyone could provide H2H stats of Amare V Boozer and Kaman V Bogut?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bogutan01&p2=kamanch01-Kaman outscores Bogut career-wise and in their most recent game (over a year time-wise and an NBA-season ago), but they've been playing since Bogut was a rookie, and not as often in the last 2-3 years due to injuries on both their parts. Chris Kaman in his prime though (look at games from 07-08 on) has been less than consistent against Bogut, and since Kaman's not bringing much to the table that isn't on the stat-sheet, (Bad passer, defender esp), I'm not worried about this matchup. 13 points or so for Bogut, and 15 or so for Kaman is about what their recent play predicts, especially since they haven't played each other since Bogut was 23 years old.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=stoudam01&p2=boozeca01-Amare shoots better, scores better, and rebounds worse. Career-wise Amare is a 54% shooter, against Boozer in 19 games over the total of his career, he's a 54% shooter. Boozer is a career 54% shooter. In 19 games over the totality of his career against Amar'e Stoudemire, Boozer is a 50% shooter. This is a big win for the Blazers.
Plus, lets consider how well Boozer played in the playoffs next to a score-first point guard who was maybe the only starting point guard to pass the ball LESS often than Russell Westbrook.
Boozer won't have the ball in his hands because Westbrook can't get it there, and he won't be able to do nearly as much damage.
IP, i know your squad is capable of really getting up and down the court - but i don't know if i'd want to turn this into a track meet with the Spurs. You have the far superior half-court offense with a couple of big men who should each see the ball every time down court. They should have a huge advantage on the block. I think you're more likely to contain Westbrook and force mistakes from him in that type of tempo.
I'm very interested to know how the 6th men will effect this series. Two big wildcards in Vinsanity and The Rook.
Point 1) I agree, that I don't want to run-first. Its my second option. My first option is a half-court set with Lowry and Harden dominating in a pick and roll-setting with Amar'e and Bogut. Both guys are gifted passers and good decision makers, and both guys can finish in traffic. When Bogut is out there, I'm only looking to get out in transition when the opportunity presents its self, ie blocks, steals, long rebounds.
Point 2) I think that Vince is going to have a tough time of it. Between James Harden and Carlos Deflino, if Vince shows any life I've got a capable defender ready to get out there and try to slow his choking-butt down.
Derrick Williams however isn't all peaches and herb either. I don't worry about him when he's matched up against Grant Hill; he's just too strong and too gifted a scorer. I don't worry about him matched up against Amir Johnson, he's too quick, too strong and too gifted a scorer.
But I do wonder how he'll matchup against Al-Farouq Aminu. They never played each other in college, and TBH I've never seen Aminu play extended minutes. However, Aminu has the size and quickness to matchup with Williams, but not the strength.
On the bright side though Aminu isn't bringing much offensive production, and I think my over-stated concerns aside, Derrick Williams will be fine against him as well.
Topic: 2011 CB Draft Western Playoffs: 1st Round (Read 44906 times)