2011 CB Draft Western Playoffs: 1st Round

[Kane3387]

This has the makings of a good series. San Antonio definitely has the X factor in Westbrook. I think Vince Carter gives you something off the bench too. I think this could be an upset.

Anyway anyone could provide H2H stats of Amare V Boozer and Kaman V Bogut?

[jgod213]

Feel like Manu would need to come up with a handful of Herculean efforts in order to keep this series within reach.  If he and Gordon could get hot together then i think that the Kings could potentially be in trouble.

But i just don't see really anyone else helping out enough in terms of getting into the paint/drawing fouls/driving and kicking.  Too much of that would fall on Manu's hands, who would still have to get back down the other end and defend Wes Matthews or LeBron.

Nonetheless, a real intruiging 1 v 8 matchup.  Just tons of championship caliber talent on both sides.

[Kane3387]

Lebron is just too much in this series. I think if the Kings play the Warriors next round then they're in legitimate trouble. I just don't think the Suns have enough though.

[Who]

Who, is there any games or series' that you could point to that show Bynum is capable of being dominant?

In terms of scoring? No. Certainly not in the playoffs. 

I thought A.Bynum best sustained stretch of play came late last season after the All-Star break. He provided elite defense + elite rebounding (12.3rpg in 31mpg) + very efficient complementary offense (11ppg on 63% TS%). Was a massive difference maker.

[Who]

Interesting matchup.  Which superstar goes off more, Rose vs. Curry/Terry, or Dirk vs. Humphries?

How about Sam Young trying to chase Ray around those screens?

Rather see Batum or Brewer do that.

I'd like to see Nic Batum on Derrick Rose

[Who]

Interesting matchup.  Which superstar goes off more, Rose vs. Curry/Terry, or Dirk vs. Humphries?

I think both superstars are going to off.

Golden State don't have enough interior defense to deny Rose while the Grizzles lack credible defenders to put on Dirk Nowitzki.

Both stars are going to feast offensively.

[jgod213]

IP, i know your squad is capable of really getting up and down the court - but i don't know if i'd want to turn this into a track meet with the Spurs.  You have the far superior half-court offense with a couple of big men who should each see the ball every time down court.  They should have a huge advantage on the block.  I think you're more likely to contain Westbrook and force mistakes from him in that type of tempo.

I'm very interested to know how the 6th men will effect this series.  Two big wildcards in Vinsanity and The Rook.

[ChampKind]

Huh. Ok. I was also preparing for a matchup with the Nuggets, but that's alright. I'm also on the road in travel hell today, so my arguments/rebuttals will have to be pretty brief. Let's see what I can do.

Batum will swap slots with Sam Young in coverage to chase Ray Allen all over the court. His length should help pester Allen and ensure that even if he's able to break free, he'll have one of the most athletic defenders on the wing closing the distance and getting a hand in his face. Young should be fine matching up with Prince at SF, as he's got the size/strength/effort to neutralize the cagey veteran at the 3.

We're at a disadvantage in the backcourt thanks to Derrick Rose, who will have to navigate through some zone coverage from GSW - basically lots of looks to try and throw the young MVP off his game.

Actually, scratch that, zone frees up Ray Allen and he'd blow us up. Hmmm. Gotta think more on this one

Alright, back to man coverage...That's not ideal, but Curry is going to struggle to cover one of the quickest PGs in the NBA, and while Miller will be better, it's still a mismatch that swings strongly in Memphis's favor. There's always the potential to move Batum down to throw a whole new set of athleticism at Rose without giving up a strength advantage, but that would leave someone like Young or Brewer or Steph Curry (who could be ok chasing Ray down, but falter in other aspects) to cover Allen. Since Rose is a nightmare, I'm sure this is a look that we would try at some point, I'm just not sure how much. I'd rather take away Rose's options as a passer while conceding a slight scoring edge between him and Curry, as I think that benefits my team better.

Rose will get his, no doubt, but I think that the Warriors are strong enough in the frontcourt and our bench to take this series.

So, the frontcourt. Dirk is much better than Kris Humphries and should have an easy time scoring and defending against Mr. K. I'm admittedly not a Roy Hibbert believer but I think that the combination of Camby's tough defense and Lee's offense and rebounding (as a Pacers season ticket holder, I can assure you that Hibbert shrinks when challenged defensively, and that he's not fast enough or a good enough rebounder to match up with Lee) will give the Warriors a pretty distinct edge.

We'll shift over to a shortened rotation, with Lee, Miller, and Young rounding out the 8 man set. Our depth will be immensely helpful since our athletic running style will help wear down the Grizz, especially over the course of a playoff series. Depth isn't as important in the playoffs, but I think I've got a pretty distinct edge here that should be a significant factor.

Anyway, I like the Grizzlies but I think the Warriors take this, although I'm not exactly an objective source on the matter. Best of luck to Dons, I'm looking forward to reading his arguments as he's about as solid as a fake draft GM can get. Cheers, boys.
 

[ChampKind]

Also, if worse comes to worst, Corey Brewer might be pressed into action as the lithe defender we need next to/behind Batum in short minutes.

[Who]

Roy Hibbert will get a lot of joy attacking David Lee in the post. Too short to defend Hibbert.

David Lee will torch him on the other end of the court though. Net gain.

[nickagneta]

Kings strategy:

Defensive: All playoff success starts with defense and with the Kings it is no different. Our first order of business will be to throw out the labels of who plays where in the back court and stick with much ups. Chauncey will be in the game guarding Kidd and Matthews will have Manu with Jennings coming in to guard Gordon. There will be times for short periods this won't work perfectly in which case Matthews will either guard Kidd or Gordon whereas Chauncey will always have Kidd and Jennings always will have Gordon.

This is going to free Lebron up to stay primarily on the Suns weakest offensive position, the SFs Williams and Pietrus and use his speed and athleticism to jump the passing lanes or help the bigs down low with weak side shot blocking. We expect Williams and Pietrus to hang out by the three point line drawing Lebron out and will have Lebron fall off them and live with Willams or Pietrus taking the three and beating us. We don't think they can.

Down low, we will have Chandler and Mohammed, if Chandler gets in foul trouble, and basically only then, try everything he can to deny Bynum the low post positioning from the outset and have guards on his side cheat down and trap when he gets the ball in his position and try to force him into a turnover as he tries to pass out of the double.

Millsap will be physical with Odom down low and follow him out and get a hand in Odom's face for his outside game. Lebron's help defense coming from all angles and maybe switches with Millsap and Diaw should confuse Odom and not allow him to get a good grasp on where he his game is best utilized, down low or outside.

The key to stopping the Suns will be tight on the ball defense along the three point line with the guards, the ability to force Bynum out of the low post, causing havoc with LeBron in the half court, and making sure the people that can drive and create to find the open man are forced to stay outside and pass the perimeter rather than driving and dishing.

Offense:We believe we have a speed and athletic advantage at most positions and all our four starter except Chandler average over a steal per game and Chandler averages over a block per game. With this Suns team that should lead to many fast break opportunities with LeBron, Matthews, Billups, Jennings, Miller and Millsap being able to finish or hit the three in transition.

In the half court the offense will be in LeBron's control as we look for him to create for himself and others in what we feel is an obvious mismatch at the SF position. Williams nor Pietrus will be able to stop LeBron when he wants to go to the hole and LeBron's ability to dish out of that situation is going to leave a lot of space for three point shooters Matthews and Billups who are both over 40% from the three. We believe an offense centered around Lebron working the ball from side three in and out with Millsap, Chandler working weakside to screen for the guards or strong side to pick off Lebrons man and then crash the boards will be our best set.

Rotation: When the bench comes in it will not be as a unit but interspersed. The back court rotation will be reactionary to what personnel the Suns have in the game. In the front court we will give Lebron about three minutes rest per half, hopefully around the quarter end to maximize his time off court with television timeouts. Miller will take those 6-8 MPG as we expect Lebron to be a horse with 40-42 MPG. Diaw will have about 25-30 minutes with both Millsap and Chandler getting 35-38. Mohammed and Neal will see action in the front court and back court respectively if foul trouble occurs in those areas so expect them for some minutes but not many.

Keys to winning:
- exploiting the obvious mismatch with LeBron both offensive and defensively
- denying penetration, especially by Manu and playing the three point line tight.
- getting into Odom's head and playing him physical. he has been known to check himself out of game emotionally and mentally if you can get him flustered
- creating turnovers and scoring on the break
- denying Bynum initial low post positioning
- having the front court players Chandler, Millsap, Diaw and Lebron stay back and crash the defensive boards upon the Suns taking their shots.

[nickagneta]

Sorry I was late to the party. Just a crazy morning here.

[ChampKind]

Roy Hibbert will get a lot of joy attacking David Lee in the post. Too short to defend Hibbert.

David Lee will torch him on the other end of the court though. Net gain.

Hibbert and Camby will be fun to watch. Hibbert is still a bit of a headcase who shrinks when challenged. I think starting Camby and allowing him to frustrate Hibbert - who allows stuff like that to get into his head and leads him to miss tons of easy buckets - and then bringing in Lee will be a pretty significant benefit for GSW this series.

[Who]

Roy Hibbert will get a lot of joy attacking David Lee in the post. Too short to defend Hibbert.

David Lee will torch him on the other end of the court though. Net gain.

Hibbert and Camby will be fun to watch. Hibbert is still a bit of a headcase who shrinks when challenged. I think starting Camby and allowing him to frustrate Hibbert - who allows stuff like that to get into his head and leads him to miss tons of easy buckets - and then bringing in Lee will be a pretty significant benefit for GSW this series.

Yeah, I don't know what to expect from that matchup. Camby has the length to bother Hibbert but not the bulk. Not sure how effective Hibbert will be against him. Could go either way.

Has anyone seen Hibbert and Camby face off before? Can they shed any insight on how that matchup went?

I haven't seen them play each other before.

[Kane3387]

Interesting matchup.  Which superstar goes off more, Rose vs. Curry/Terry, or Dirk vs. Humphries?

How about Sam Young trying to chase Ray around those screens?

Rather see Batum or Brewer do that.

I'd like to see Nic Batum on Derrick Rose

I think Rose gets his no matter what. Let him be the ball dominant scorer making Ray Allen a spectator. Batum would be very difficult to get shots against. This past season showed that no defense can really stop Rose. Look at his playoff stats also compared to his Regular season stats. His shooting percentages drop as he shoots more shots. Let Rose get his and don't let the others beat you is what I am getting at. I mean none of those other guys can create on their own and if you don't allow Rose to do that for them then I think you make this Memphis team a very inefficient Offensive team.