I love Big Baby but... [looking ahead]

[Chris]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

[Donoghus]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

Very good post. 

[mmbaby]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

Well, you obviously took the time to look for examples and I have to respect that, but, again, I totally disagree that Baby has reached his peak or that say, 'most' players reach their peak at age 24 or 25. My point is that Baby is critically important to us winning the Championship and that I think he's worth 8 million a year.

[mmbaby]

And one other thing...I don't know if he'll be able to get 8M a year with the new rules, which I am totally ignorant of, but I do believe he's definately worth it.

[More Banners]

One way to look at the "what is BBD worth" question is to rephrase it as "what would it cost to fill a backup role-player big role for 24 minutes/game," keeping in mind that, while BBD has scored a few buckets, he is an opportunistic, not a go-to scorer.

And we've seen him as a starter, and it wasn't so good; he is clearly best off the bench.

And we've seen that he is definitely an emotional player, but not, most definitely not, an emotional leader.  BBD is in no way, shape, or form a leader on this club.

Under the current CBA rules, that role could very, very easily be filled with the MLE, which currently starts at $5.75 million.  Frankly, there are far, far better players who have taken MLE deals in recent years, and I would be reluctant to give MLE-level money to BBD given his inherent limitations (e.g. T-Rex arms).  How anyone might figure that BBD would attract an $8 million offer is beyond my logic. 

And as we've seen with Scal, giving long-term contracts to role players isn't a good idea, and so I would expect a deal for no more than 4 years, more likely 3.

I'd say it would be reasonable to expect BBD to get an offer simliar to what TA received on the open market, but perhaps a bit higher because he's a big rather than a wing.  My prediction:  3 yrs, $12 million or so.

[Chris]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

Well, you obviously took the time to look for examples and I have to respect that, but, again, I totally disagree that Baby has reached his peak or that say, 'most' players reach their peak at age 24 or 25. My point is that Baby is critically important to us winning the Championship and that I think he's worth 8 million a year.

Here is what I don't understand, what is the $8 million per year based on?

I absolutely agree that he is crucial to winning a championship, but the price is set by the market.  And, even looking at the market under the current CBA, I am not sure how he would be in that range.

Looking at some comparables over the last few years:

Craig Smith 2.3 million per year
Brandon Bass 4 million per year
Hakim Warrick ~4.5 million per year
Channing Frye ~6 million per year
Antonio McDyess ~5 million per year
Matt Bonner ~3.5 million per year
Reggie Evans 5 million per year (although I think the AAV was lower)
Amir Johnson ~6 million per year
Udonis Haslem ~4 million per year
Drew Gooden ~6 million per year
Ronny Turiaf ~4 million per year
Nick Collison ~4.8 million per year
Ryan Gomes 4 million per year
Jason Maxiell ~5 million per year
Chris Andersen ~5 million per year

So, unless you think he is on the same level as someone like Millsap (who is right around $8 million per year), I don't see it.  

And just as a comparison, here are Millsap and Davis' last 3 seasons:

Millsap: (ages 23, 24, 25)
2008-09 13.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1 block in 30 minutes
2009-10 11.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 blocks in 28 minutes
2010-11 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 0.9 blocks in 34 minutes

Davis: (ages 23, 24, 25)
2008-09 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.3 blocks in 22 minutes
2009-10 6.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 0.3 blocks in 17 minutes
2010-11 11.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 0.4 blocks in 29 minutes

So, between the lower production, and the list I posted earlier showing that guys like Davis don't necessarily get better after the age of 25, I find it hard to believe that any owner would open his wallet for anything above the MLE for him based on contracts given to comparable players.  While GMs love playoff experience, it is not going to be worth an extra $3 million a year.  

[BballTim]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

  Minor point, but disagree about Corliss.

[More Banners]

Here is what I don't understand, what is the $8 million per year based on?

I absolutely agree that he is crucial to winning a championship, but the price is set by the market.  And, even looking at the market under the current CBA, I am not sure how he would be in that range.

Looking at some comparables over the last few years:

Craig Smith 2.3 million per year
Brandon Bass 4 million per year
Hakim Warrick ~4.5 million per year
Channing Frye ~6 million per year
Antonio McDyess ~5 million per year
Matt Bonner ~3.5 million per year
Reggie Evans 5 million per year (although I think the AAV was lower)
Amir Johnson ~6 million per year
Udonis Haslem ~4 million per year
Drew Gooden ~6 million per year
Ronny Turiaf ~4 million per year
Nick Collison ~4.8 million per year
Ryan Gomes 4 million per year
Jason Maxiell ~5 million per year
Chris Andersen ~5 million per year

So, unless you think he is on the same level as someone like Millsap (who is right around $8 million per year), I don't see it.  

And just as a comparison, here are Millsap and Davis' last 3 seasons:

Millsap: (ages 23, 24, 25)
2008-09 13.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1 block in 30 minutes
2009-10 11.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 blocks in 28 minutes
2010-11 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 0.9 blocks in 34 minutes

Davis: (ages 23, 24, 25)
2008-09 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.3 blocks in 22 minutes
2009-10 6.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 0.3 blocks in 17 minutes
2010-11 11.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 0.4 blocks in 29 minutes

So, between the lower production, and the list I posted earlier showing that guys like Davis don't necessarily get better after the age of 25, I find it hard to believe that any owner would open his wallet for anything above the MLE for him based on contracts given to comparable players.  While GMs love playoff experience, it is not going to be worth an extra $3 million a year.  

Didn't Milsap sign a MLE offer that was matched?  So his current $8 million is based on raises from a deal that paid $6M in the first year, right?


Those long-term MLE deals for role players (NOT Milsap) are the ones that end up being the bad contracts (e.g. Nocioni, Posey, et. al.).  

Someone might make that kind of offer, but it would be best for the C's if that was another team, and to wish him well on his way to wherever he may go.  Kinda like how C-Webb wished Kahn "good luck" when they were talking on air about the Darko signing last summer.

If he truly loves his place in Boston, he should do what Haslem did and take a nice $4 million/year deal rather than looking for the MLE on the market.  If someone pays him the top dollar he might want/expect, no doubt he will not respond well to the expectations and pressure to perform up to that deal when it reaches Milsap money, and fans and bloggers will constantly be spinning rumors about whatever team trying to dump his salary, being on the trade block, that he's no good/not worth the money, and all of that.  He's a nice kid and emotional player, and I don't think it would be a good situation for him to be overpaid.  He would think he has to play hero ball, which he likes, and his team will suffer for it.

[Chris]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

  Minor point, but disagree about Corliss.

He sustained his level of play for a while, but never was more productive than he was at age 24.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willico02.html

[BballTim]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

  Minor point, but disagree about Corliss.

He sustained his level of play for a while, but never was more productive than he was at age 24.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willico02.html

  He played more minutes when he was younger but he was better when he won the 6th man award in 01-02.

[Who]

Actually, I think there are plenty of players who come close to peaking in the first 3-4 years of their careers.  Here are some comparable undersized big men, or guys who had similar weight questions, who were also very highly skilled (I left out complete busts like Tractor Traylor).

Some examples:

Oliver Miller peaked at age 25

Antoine Walker peaked at age 24-25

Corliss Williamson's best year was at age 24

Kenny Thomas peaked right around 24 (stayed about the same until 28 before falling off a cliff)

Sean May peaked at age 22

Michael Sweetney had a couple decent seasons at age 22 and 23 that have compared to Davis' before he disappeared.

Danny Fortson had his best year (by far) at age 24.

Now, Davis may very well be different from all of these guys.  But the history is there.  Undersized big men rarely get better (or at least more productive) as they get older than 24 or 25...and if they have issues with weight, they often wash out of the league shortly after that age.

And that is not to say they don't refine their skills.  Generally, they would get better at other parts of their game, but they would also generally be regressing from an athletic standpoint, making it harder for them to actually become more productive.  They are essentially just replacing one skill with another one.  

  Minor point, but disagree about Corliss.

He sustained his level of play for a while, but never was more productive than he was at age 24.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willico02.html

  He played more minutes when he was younger but he was better when he won the 6th man award in 01-02.

I think so too. Best years were in Detroit.

[LooseCannon]

My point is that Baby is critically important to us winning the Championship and that I think he's worth 8 million a year.

What other players do you think are worth 8 million/year?

[2short]

Didn't danny ALREADY replace Davis with a 6'9" more athletic pf who just happens to be our backup sf and who has guarded Gasol nicely in the playoffs for another team?

[Vermont Green]

It depends on the money of course but I don't see why we couldn't sign all 3.  Give Green $7M, and Krstic and Davis each about $5M.  Of the 3, I think it is Green who may be most likely to find bigger money elsewhere.  Those would not be contracts that are budget busters down the road.

I think if you can get 20-30 minutes of primary rotation minutes for $5-$7M, that is pretty good value.

[EJPLAYA]

Didn't danny ALREADY replace Davis with a 6'9" more athletic pf who just happens to be our backup sf and who has guarded Gasol nicely in the playoffs for another team?

Green will be our future 3 guard once PP retires or comes off the bench if he stays around too long. We have yet to find the KG replacement, but it sure isn't BBD.