I don't see where the Bulls get the offense.
Mike Miller has played poorly for two straight years. Sorry he just hasn't been that good. And I don't buy into, "well around LeBron he'll play better" because I don't see proof of that in real life. Did Jamison or Moon or Shaq play better this year then they did in the previous year because they were with Lebron?
Tony Allen. Do I really have to go further about what he brings offensively.
Eric Maynor. Really, a rookie PG that wasn't even good enough to get 16 minutes a game and is a poor shooter.
Brandon Jennings. Is he going to grow out of shooting 37% from the field or out of his 47% true shooting percentage?
Noah. Very similar to Varejao in that they are great defenders and rebounders but poor offensive players. Noah has hit his ceiling offensively, much the way AV has while playing alongside Lebron. His very limited offensive game isn't getting much better if at all. I mean think about it if I asked you name the player in the league that is most similar to Anderson Varejao, who are you going to pick? Joakin Noah most likely. Why if AV and his limited skills offensively aren't that much better playing with Lebron would Noah's be that much better?
Ilyasova. Another nice defender and rebounder and quietly efficient offensive player but he is very limited.
I just don't see where the Bulls get the points and when they have foul trouble, things just get worse with that awful bench.
I was just saying something similar to IP. My big concern with Chicago, outside of its lack of depth, is its lack of shooting. Noah is a terrible shooter, and Ilyasova is spotty. Miller can shoot, but chooses not to. Jennings is a gunner who is inefficient and won't have the ball in his hands.
Can Lebron, surrounded by one above-average shooter who rarely shoots, beat a complete team? I have my doubts.
To clarify my case:
Brandon Jennings is absolutely destroying Raymond Felton so far at this point in their careers. Jennings should only get better, and with less of an offensive burden, should become more efficient. Even if he doesn't get better than he already is, through one season and 4 games he's outscored Felton by 10 points per contest.
Ersan Ilyasova as a starter shot 35% from 3, and 42% from the field. That's not All-star, but it is better than spotty, and if Scola does indeed allow Ilyasova to shoot, Ilyasova could win some games on his own. 6-8 from 3 with 3 or 4 easy layins off of pick and rolls could make 24 points happen real easy. Scola will need to score 20+ points nightly for Washington to win.
Miller, as you have said, has forgone his shot. He's been playing for crappy teams where he was the best ball handler on the floor. He's now playing with his good friend LeBron James, and won't be counted on to be a facilitator anymore. As long as he keeps shooting at his current clip, which nobody is disputing, I don't see how he doesn't get his buckets.
Even that said, here is what you said about my projected per minute stats:
Any evidence that Mike Miller is all of a sudden going to bounce back after two subpar years in a row? He's still efficient, but he's lost all aggression with his shot.
The projected stats you showed in your chart look reasonable enough to me, other than that I wouldn't expect to see Von Wafer average 8 points in 16 minutes. I don't think he'll catch lightning in a bottle like that again, especially after a poor year in Greece.
Basically same deal about Miller, and when pressed with this:
Any evidence that Mike Miller is all of a sudden going to bounce back after two subpar years in a row? He's still efficient, but he's lost all aggression with his shot.
The projected stats you showed in your chart look reasonable enough to me.
I don't have evidence for Miller bouncing back, but I have some theories with some meat.
-the last time Mike Miller averaged above 15 PPG was in 2006-2007. That year the Memphis Grizzlies went 22-60.
-the previous 3 years the grizzlies had been playoff teams, with Miller averaging 12.7 points, capping out at 13.7 in the final year of the Griz's playoff runs.
-The year Miller averaged 18.5 (06-07) points, he was averaging 40 minutes per night on a team that had high preseason exceptions, but failed ultimately because of a myriad of factors, injuries being one.
I think that Miller kind of burned out after that year. The next year the Griz were miserable, he averaged 16 ppg, the next year he was traded to Minnesota, they were miserable, he averaged about 10 ppg.
I think Miller is just suffering from being a role player on a terrible team-itis. I think he can be a viable 3rd option on a winning team, and playing along side good friend LeBron James, on a team that honestly has no chance of having a losing record, ought to be enough to get him caring again.
It makes sense to me, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on this, Roy.
You responded:
I have no idea what's going on with Miller. You would have thought that he'd jack up all kinds of shots on the bad teams he's been on. I guess the big concern is 1) he's lost his aggressiveness, and 2) he has absolutely no ability to create for himself any more. You worry that he's turned into Jason Kapono.
So here is the issue I'm having.
Brandon Jennings has proved he can score on Raymond Felton, even when Felton is backed by the top 5 defense of the Charlotte Bobcats.
Mike Miller is playing for a team that will be asking him to shoot more and won't be asking him to facilitate the offense (at least as a primary ball handler), and he'll be being asked by a coach (Alvin Gentry) that everyone respects and a player (LeBron James) that beyond being the best basketball player on the planet, is also a good friend.
Nick is saying he wants to keep Luis Scola in the paint and let Ilyasova chuck. Ilyasova was a 35% shooter from 3 last year as a starter. Coach Scott Skiles himself says he expects Ilyasova to become roughly a 37% 3pt shooter next season, as he fully adjusts to the NBA 3pt line. But even if he doesn't, if Scola isn't guarding him, what is stopping him from scoring?
Noah isn't a good shooter, but he's a pretty good finisher at the rim, and his high energy and eagerness to set screens makes him an adequate pick and roll partner to get 3-4 easy buckets a night, coupled with 3-4 made FT's.
I think those are all reasonable and probable expectations.
But here is the real point:LeBron James will be being guarded by Wilson Chandler, a guy who has proven he not only cannot
slow LeBron down, but who LeBron actually plays better against.
How is that not going to get more easy looks for shooters Miller/Ilyasova/Jennings? How is it not going to get more buckets for LeBron? How is that not going to result in more easy buckets in the paint for Noah?
The issue isn't can the Bulls score on Washington. The issue is 'can Washington stop the bulls from scoring'?
Topic: CB Draft '10 Playoffs Eastern Conference Semi-Finals (Read 36982 times)