CB Draft '10 Playoffs Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

[nickagneta]

You know Faf, wd you bring up some okay counter points but I believe I've already explained myself regarding your concerns and don't want to get into the minutiae of the situation. Not that you're really concerned anyway because, let's be honest, both of you had your mind made up regarding this matchup already.

So if others have questions regarding the matchup I will address them.

Nick don't attack the poster, attack the argument.

I didn't attack the poster. I only mentioned that you two, I feel, have already made up your minds so there's no sense in going further.

I complimented both of you on okay counter points that I had already answered, so I dismissed the argument. There's no need to attack an argument that was already addressed.

[ChampKind]

Sadly, I am on the road again today, somehow to create an education reform agenda for a fringe 2012 presidential candidate (how the F this came to be I have no idea), so I won't be around to discuss much. Here is my lineup breakdown. Rather than allow Maggette to work on Carter, Carter will be playing the 2 with Joe Johnson at the 3 - this is a lineup that worked very well for the Hawks with Bibby/Crawford/Johnson. With Ty Lawson filling the Bibby role, Carter works as a more effective and athletic 2 while Johnson pulls a tougher defensive assignment, but has a distinct size/athleticism advantage.

Here's what I typed up last night on the bus regarding my lineup for a series with Milwaukee (while, coincidentally, driving to Milwaukee). Apologies if it doesn't make much sense.

PG - Ty Lawson - quicker than Kidd and with the ability to jam up his passing lanes. Concedes rebounds, but basically ensures that Jason Kidd will have to shoot the ball to be effective in this series

SG - Vince Carter - Similar to the Hawks extremely successful Bibby/Crawford/Johnson backcourt, Carter just needs to replicate Crawford's game. Defensively, matchup with Tayshaun Prince doesn't allow for his defense to be exploited

6th Man - Jason Terry - Terry subs at either position to provide offense and veteran leadership. If Lawson is getting abused by Kidd (dependent on Kidd having a stellar shooting night), then Terry can effectively fill in at the 1. In this scenario, Mike Dunleavy becomes the backup 2.

SF - Joe Johnson - Size to shut down a one dimensional Corey Maggette, and the offensive ability to abuse Maggette's ineffective defense.

PF - LaMarcus Aldridge - Mobile enough to defend Dirk out to the 3-point line, and at 260 pounds this season, strong enough to keep him from posting up. The lack of a true threat at center for Milwaukee makes this matchup the most important, but ultimately the Bucks lack the true post threat who can exploit the Magic's biggest weakness

7th Man - Andrei Kirilenko - gritty defense, steady offense, and the ability to throw lots of different looks at Maggette/Dirk while playing SF/PF.

C - Andris Biedrins - The weak link of the Magic takes on the weak link of the Bucks.

Big man rotation - Amir Johnson comes in to grab boards and block shots from the weakside, while Cole Aldrich protects the paint. Nikola Pekovic comes in and does some aggressive Russian stuff too.

I think the Bucks have a strong team full of veterans, and this will be a great series. However, I think my team matches up incredibly well, and is the kryptonite to their strategy. Without a bonafide post presence they can't exploit my biggest weakness (post defense in the starting lineup), and Aldridge's ability to cover Dirk out to the three point line limits the advantage that their superstar gives them. Nashville has a deeper big man rotation and while we aren't beefy paint players (aside from Cole Aldrich), we do possess great rebounders (Biedrins, Amir Johnson, Aldrich, Pekovic can all clear the glass, and we also have above average height guys at the1-2-3 like Joe Johnson, Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, and Mike Dunleavy).

Also, Rondo2287 is a passionate and tough GM who I'm sure will argue the hell out of this, and I'm sorry that I won't be around to debate more with him. Good luck, my friend, and may the best team win. Cheers, brother.

[ChampKind]

Also, interestingly, Aldridge seems to provide a stronger post presence against Dirk, according to a brief look at head-to-head stats. Dirk's ability to get to the line and range from 3 gives him the edge, but Aldridge shoots better, gets more offensive boards and blocks, and turns the ball over less in that match up.

Meaningful? I have no idea. Did I just contradict some of my own arguments? Maybe. Interesting? Probably not.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=nowitdi01&p2=aldrila01

(sorry for using stats that have already been deemed weak sauce. Consider this less of an argument and more of an observation.)

[Rondo2287]

Sadly, I am on the road again today, somehow to create an education reform agenda for a fringe 2012 presidential candidate (how the F this came to be I have no idea), so I won't be around to discuss much. Here is my lineup breakdown. Rather than allow Maggette to work on Carter, Carter will be playing the 2 with Joe Johnson at the 3 - this is a lineup that worked very well for the Hawks with Bibby/Crawford/Johnson. With Ty Lawson filling the Bibby role, Carter works as a more effective and athletic 2 while Johnson pulls a tougher defensive assignment, but has a distinct size/athleticism advantage.

Here's what I typed up last night on the bus regarding my lineup for a series with Milwaukee (while, coincidentally, driving to Milwaukee). Apologies if it doesn't make much sense.

PG - Ty Lawson - quicker than Kidd and with the ability to jam up his passing lanes. Concedes rebounds, but basically ensures that Jason Kidd will have to shoot the ball to be effective in this series

SG - Vince Carter - Similar to the Hawks extremely successful Bibby/Crawford/Johnson backcourt, Carter just needs to replicate Crawford's game. Defensively, matchup with Tayshaun Prince doesn't allow for his defense to be exploited

6th Man - Jason Terry - Terry subs at either position to provide offense and veteran leadership. If Lawson is getting abused by Kidd (dependent on Kidd having a stellar shooting night), then Terry can effectively fill in at the 1. In this scenario, Mike Dunleavy becomes the backup 2.

SF - Joe Johnson - Size to shut down a one dimensional Corey Maggette, and the offensive ability to abuse Maggette's ineffective defense.

PF - LaMarcus Aldridge - Mobile enough to defend Dirk out to the 3-point line, and at 260 pounds this season, strong enough to keep him from posting up. The lack of a true threat at center for Milwaukee makes this matchup the most important, but ultimately the Bucks lack the true post threat who can exploit the Magic's biggest weakness

7th Man - Andrei Kirilenko - gritty defense, steady offense, and the ability to throw lots of different looks at Maggette/Dirk while playing SF/PF.

C - Andris Biedrins - The weak link of the Magic takes on the weak link of the Bucks.

Big man rotation - Amir Johnson comes in to grab boards and block shots from the weakside, while Cole Aldrich protects the paint. Nikola Pekovic comes in and does some aggressive Russian stuff too.

I think the Bucks have a strong team full of veterans, and this will be a great series. However, I think my team matches up incredibly well, and is the kryptonite to their strategy. Without a bonafide post presence they can't exploit my biggest weakness (post defense in the starting lineup), and Aldridge's ability to cover Dirk out to the three point line limits the advantage that their superstar gives them. Nashville has a deeper big man rotation and while we aren't beefy paint players (aside from Cole Aldrich), we do possess great rebounders (Biedrins, Amir Johnson, Aldrich, Pekovic can all clear the glass, and we also have above average height guys at the1-2-3 like Joe Johnson, Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, and Mike Dunleavy).

Also, Rondo2287 is a passionate and tough GM who I'm sure will argue the hell out of this, and I'm sorry that I won't be around to debate more with him. Good luck, my friend, and may the best team win. Cheers, brother.

I dunno, I think my team matches up incredibly well on size and on the glass with your team. 

And while Aldridge can cover Dirk out to the 3 point arc, if Dirk gets the ball and faces up on him he isnt quick enough to stay in front of him and keep him from getting his own shot.

And im not sure if i would fall in love with the fact that Dirk shoots .498 against Aldridge and Aldridge shoots .519.  Not much of a discrepancy there.  Course the free throw advantage speaks to my point above about Aldridge not being able to cover dirk when he faces up.

[Rondo2287]

Also, Rip has played Johnson Incredibly well in past matchups


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=johnsjo02&p2=hamilri01

With Rips team winning 14 out of 23

[indeedproceed]

I would like to address the following (false) statements:

1) That Noah would foul out:
-Dating back to 2007, Joakim Noah is averaging 4 fouls per 34 minutes played in games played against Andrew Bynum. In the same time (34 mins), Andrew Bynum averaged 3.6 fouls. Neither one is going to likely play 34 minutes.

-In the two most recent games (as in games where Noah was the unequivocal leader of the defense), Noah played 39 and 36 minutes respectively, and got 4 fouls in 1, and 3 fouls in another. In neither case was he outscored by Bynum, in both cases he outrebounded him to the point of parody, 15 to 8, and 20 to 3, respectively.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=noahjo01&p2=bynuman01

2)

The matchups that IP mentioned above show that Noah and Ilysova COMBINED average less than 10 points per game in their head to head matchups with Bynum and Scola.

That is patently untrue. I expect both players to average over 10 points per game, with Noah coming in a right around 11, and Ersan closer to 14 or 16. I don't even know where you got that from, I think you just kind of "wished" it, like believing in fairies or something.

3)

Heck as of right now, Magliore has a job in the NBA and Amundson doesn't!!!

Once again, patently untrue, but this is becoming a trend.

4)

Magliore scored only 2 points less per game and 1 rebound less per game than Amundson last year in 5 fewer minutes per game than Amundson.

Are you serious? Are you really telling me that Jamal Magloire, a guy who only played in 36 NBA games last season is a better option than a guy who played in 79 regular season games and almost 15 minutes per contest? Was Magloire hurt last season? No. He just wasn't good enough to crack the rotation on the 47 win Heat. He lost his minutes to Joel Anthony.


 

[indeedproceed]

Link to Image

LeBron James will not settle for his outside shots, not when only Luis Scola and Andrew Bynum stand in his way. The only teams that have been able to stop LeBron James in the playoffs are teams with elite defenders in the paint.

Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Dwight Howard...these are the men that make LeBron a little (I can't stress that enough, they only make him a littttttle) tentative going into the paint.

Andrew Bynum or Luis Scola, they're not elite defenders. Heck, they're barely above average. They're not elite rebounders, like Noah is. They're good, solid players, but that's it.

[Kwhit10]

Also, Rip has played Johnson Incredibly well in past matchups


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=johnsjo02&p2=hamilri01

With Rips team winning 14 out of 23

Personally I don't take much into "so and so's team won x out of y games"

I also throw out Rip's performance before last year.  He declined quite a bit last year in terms of his shooting percentages and hasn't been very efficient.

And the only game JJ and Rip played last year against each other was this
JJ: 29pts, 5ast, 4reb, 67%FG
Rip: 18pts, 3ast, 2reb, 46%FG


Last year Rip shot 40% on ~16 shots a game.  Is he getting that many touches on Milwaukee?

[nickagneta]

1.) No one said Noah would foul out, just be in foul trouble

2.) http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=scolalu01&p2=ilyaser01

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bynuman01&p2=noahjo01

Expectations are great but facts say that in their head to heads Ilyasova and Noah average a combined 9.8 PPG versus their counterparts in Washington

3.)http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5392160

Magliore resigned with the Heat. Where's Amundson playing?

4.) Yes I am serious. Just because Spoelstra is a moron doesn't mean that the Boxer coach is.

[ChampKind]

Also, Rip has played Johnson Incredibly well in past matchups


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=johnsjo02&p2=hamilri01

With Rips team winning 14 out of 23

Rip matches up with VC in this match-up so that those two old Edited for profanity.  Please do not do it again.s can cover each other and talk about how great Will Smith's "Gettin' Jiggy Wit It" album was from when they first got to the league. Also, the win/loss there depends heavily (I'm assuming, can't get the link) on Detroit's glory days and strong team dynamic, which isn't fully attributable to Hamilton (who I confused with Tayshaun earlier, apologies).

I like Dirk quite a bit (and honestly, your team has many more likeable players than my collection of Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.bags and whiners), but he's the only full time starter in your front court, and questions surround your center rotation (mine too, honestly, but my depth gives me the edge here).  I doubt we'll see eye to eye on this, but good looks.

[Rondo2287]

Also, Rip has played Johnson Incredibly well in past matchups


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=johnsjo02&p2=hamilri01

With Rips team winning 14 out of 23

Personally I don't take much into "so and so's team won x out of y games"

I also throw out Rip's performance before last year.  He declined quite a bit last year in terms of his shooting percentages and hasn't been very efficient.

And the only game JJ and Rip played last year against each other was this
JJ: 29pts, 5ast, 4reb, 67%FG
Rip: 18pts, 3ast, 2reb, 46%FG


Last year Rip shot 40% on ~16 shots a game.  Is he getting that many touches on Milwaukee?

If they are open he will.  I think putting an arbitrary number on it is kinda pointless.  Last year he was one of the primary offensive options and was asked to do more than i am currently comfortable doing, which is why his numbers fell off.  I think in the right system he can still be effective.  I think pairing him with a pass first point guard and two other legitimate offensive options will resurrect his career.  Right now we still know two things about Rip, He can defend and he can hit the open jumper, and i dont really need to know much else.


And champ you may matchup up Vince on Rip on defense which is fine, because i would love to see Vince trying to keep up with Rip around screens, I dont think there is any way it could happen.  But im sticking Rip on Johnson.


EDIT: Also in last seasons matchup Rip went off on Vince for 36 points on 12-16 shooting with 5 rebounds and 3 assists

[indeedproceed]

Question for IP:

Brandon Jennings is on his way to becoming a star in this league, but he's a guy who likes to dominate the ball on offense.  What does his role become with LeBron? Is he still bringing the ball up the court and initiating the offense or is he standing around and watching? If its the former, will LeBron have to expend a lot of extra energy working his way to the ball? Won't the Bulls use a lot of its shot-clock trying to find LeBron if the Boxers do a good job of denying him?

Brandon Jennings will bring up the ball. After that, they'll both work the outside in, using screens from Ilyasova and Noah (both good pick and roll players).

I don't think LeBron would expand a lot of energy trying to work back to the ball. Mike Miller and Brandon Jennings are both excellent passers, and Noah isn't poor either. Ball movement will do the work for them.

I also don't buy for a minute that Andrew Bynum and Luis Scola can deny LeBron or Jennnigs access to the paint. Brandon Jennings dominates Raymond Felton (link to H2H stats), and he didn't just get hot from outside.

I would honestly think it would look a lot like the Celtics offense, if Pierce were more willing to go to the cup. Garnett screen and rolls around the outside, while Perkins goes to the hoop. Pierce using the ball doesn't stop Rondo from impacting the game, and Rondo using the ball doesn't stop Pierce.

[Fafnir]

Actually, no, the Boxers don't have to try and help on Lebron. I never even hinted that I would do that. My strategy remains the same as it was against NY and their superstar. Let Lebron's man play him one up, pack the paint denying penetration and make Lebron shoot from outside.

So you're playing a semi zone? Will you overload the strong side like the Celtics did by having a big man camp on LeBron's side of the lane?

[wdleehi]

You know Faf, wd you bring up some okay counter points but I believe I've already explained myself regarding your concerns and don't want to get into the minutiae of the situation. Not that you're really concerned anyway because, let's be honest, both of you had your mind made up regarding this matchup already.

So if others have questions regarding the matchup I will address them.

No you didn't.


Instead of addressing what I said, you tried to steer it to a different topic.  Of course that topic was false.  We have seen Lebron by himself, with no offensive inside game beat a more talented team in a 7 game series then what you are presenting.  (the Detroit Pistons who a year later would be favored to beat Boston in the playoffs and was the 1st team to win on Boston's floor in the playoffs)


How is your offense going to work if Lebron defends your best offensive player?  

How do you stop Lebron when it takes a great team defense to beat him in a 7 game series and I don't see a defense built around players like KG/Perk/Pierce (defensive level)


We have seen teams try to pack it in on Lebron, but we have only seen great team defenses beat him.  

[Fafnir]

You know Faf, wd you bring up some okay counter points but I believe I've already explained myself regarding your concerns and don't want to get into the minutiae of the situation. Not that you're really concerned anyway because, let's be honest, both of you had your mind made up regarding this matchup already.

So if others have questions regarding the matchup I will address them.

Nick don't attack the poster, attack the argument.

I didn't attack the poster. I only mentioned that you two, I feel, have already made up your minds so there's no sense in going further.

I complimented both of you on okay counter points that I had already answered, so I dismissed the argument. There's no need to attack an argument that was already addressed.

You're stating our opinions for us, always a fun thing that you love to do Nick, and then dismissing us. That's the way to engender a great debate, on a cable news 2 minute segement...

I honestly haven't decided how I am to vote. I'm leaning 80% (you are correct in that its the Bulls/Boxers) on one match up and the other 3 I really don't know yet. It depends on how GMs state their cases, the arguments brought up, and what line ups are used.

(For example I was 100% Phoenix in the first round until he started talking Turk at the 4 and then the weird musical chairs lineup talk it didn't change my vote in the end but it really made me think about it)