Celtics will regret not re-signing Tony

[housecall]

In the 2007-08 season we manage to win a championship without Tony Allen's lockdown defense.He was on the bench but still recovering from injury.He wasn't a factor in the playoffs.Somehow i think we can manage to makeup for his lost.Where he gave you defense off the bench he lacked much offensive punch.If the replacements)are capable of giving more on the offensive end than Tony gave,it should offset it on the defensive end and more.Im sure the player will not be without any defensive skills.   

[LooseCannon]

Looking at that list, I'd say it's a pretty flawed methodology.  Nate Robinson + four average players has a 53.1% winning percentage?  Perk + four average guys wins 53.5% of the time?  I don't think so; those sound a lot like lottery teams.

Player win % is an attempt to combine Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating into a single statistic.  I believe it should be taken to assume that an average player would have a .500 player win %.  Keep in mind that a 44-40 record, or two games above .500 is a 53.7% winning percentage.  I have no problem believing that Nate Robinson is better than the average production that teams get from their point guards.

These are also the un-updated numbers.  The formula was tweeked because it was believed to undervalue three-point shooting.  Thus, players like Nate Robinson and Ray Allen have a higher value than I listed, while players who lack an outside shot, like Tony Allen, go down in value.

My main point was that advanced metrics suggest that Tony Allen is better than other wings described as low-offense defensive specialists and a reasonable interpretation is that he actually is a better defender than those players.  You could make a reasonable case that Tony Allen's defensive abilities are better than Dwayne Wade and on par with those of Gerald Wallace.  The problem is that his offensive abilities make it often look like an average player being guarded by Gerald Wallace.  He wasn't worthless, but he had a skill set which made him incredibly useful in some situations and worthless in others.  He's more useful than a 3pt sharpshooter who can't play a lick of defense.

I think Tony Allen wanted to be the first wing off the bench no matter the circumstances and to be automatically inserted into that role whenever he comes back from injury.  I think there is a risk that he would have turned into a malcontent trying to prove he deserved that role, leading him to try too hard on offense or injure himself, if he had stayed in Boston.

[Bankshot]

If we are playing Miami in a tight game and Wade comes down and gets stuffed or stripped by TA. It fires up the team. How many times have we seen a game decided by 1 possesion late in the fourth quater? or in a 3 minute stretch?

If we're in a tight game and Von Wafer hits a big three, it can also be a game-changer and will fire up the crowd, wouldn't you agree?  How many times have we seen the Celtics come up short because they couldn't score timely buckets down the stretch?

But thats not who we are. Thats never been what we have been about since Garnett came here. Tony fit the pysche of this team. He was a lockdown defender on a defensive team.

and no watching Von Wafer launching threes is not going to be a game changer. We all watched Rasheed do it too much last year. Watching TA D up some of the best players in the league and get stops gets us pumped. Thats what were all about or at least thats how i see it.

Tony's impact was nothing. Yes he guarded the best player on the opposing team but we've made up for his loss by adding Delonte/Avery/Wafer/Nate to the mix. Team defense is what it's all about and that won't miss a beat next year.

All in all, danny gave our offense a huge boost this offseason and that will for sure make up for the loss of TA. We might not be solely a defensive juggernaut anymore but we will have a reliable bench that can produce points. Last season I am sure many of you noticed our offense was STAGNANT especially at times during the stretch (3rd or 4th quarter). That won't happen next year when you have guys like shaq and delonte on our bench now. (in addition to baby and nate)

No we didn't make up for it, because none of those guys can defend the top wing players like Kobe, Lebron and Wade.  We still have no one who can really defend those guys, so no, we didn't make up for it.

[GetYourSoxOn]

I believe the offensive gain will be greater than the defensive loss.  Time will tell.  The proof will be when we count up the games lost AFTER the Celtics had a double-digit lead.

I believe there will be less of that!!!

[EJPLAYA]

If we are playing Miami in a tight game and Wade comes down and gets stuffed or stripped by TA. It fires up the team. How many times have we seen a game decided by 1 possesion late in the fourth quater? or in a 3 minute stretch?

If we're in a tight game and Von Wafer hits a big three, it can also be a game-changer and will fire up the crowd, wouldn't you agree?  How many times have we seen the Celtics come up short because they couldn't score timely buckets down the stretch?

But thats not who we are. Thats never been what we have been about since Garnett came here. Tony fit the pysche of this team. He was a lockdown defender on a defensive team.

and no watching Von Wafer launching threes is not going to be a game changer. We all watched Rasheed do it too much last year. Watching TA D up some of the best players in the league and get stops gets us pumped. Thats what were all about or at least thats how i see it.

Tony's impact was nothing. Yes he guarded the best player on the opposing team but we've made up for his loss by adding Delonte/Avery/Wafer/Nate to the mix. Team defense is what it's all about and that won't miss a beat next year.

All in all, danny gave our offense a huge boost this offseason and that will for sure make up for the loss of TA. We might not be solely a defensive juggernaut anymore but we will have a reliable bench that can produce points. Last season I am sure many of you noticed our offense was STAGNANT especially at times during the stretch (3rd or 4th quarter). That won't happen next year when you have guys like shaq and delonte on our bench now. (in addition to baby and nate)

No we didn't make up for it, because none of those guys can defend the top wing players like Kobe, Lebron and Wade.  We still have no one who can really defend those guys, so no, we didn't make up for it.

Got news for you. There is a reason that these guys are the very best in the world. NO ONE has anyone who can guard them. Just like we didn't have anyone who could guard Lebron last year. Look how that turned out for Cleveland. Yes there are now two of those guys with Wade, however there is only one ball so you still only have one guy in iso against you. Considering the fact that We aren't going to have the second unit against these guys ever for more than a couple minutes a game, I wouldn't be too worried. Also, Marquis did a much better job defensively against the likes of Kobe and Lebron and Wade than people are giving him credit for. He does a nice job sliding his feet on them and makes it tough on them.

TA is sure getting better and better every minute he is gone. The guy's positives BARELY outweighed his negatives and that was only true this last year. Let's not make a borderline 3 stringer the reason that we went to the finals!

[Assassin70]

Really doesn't matter for 2 reasons.

1. We gave him the same deal money and years wise as Memphis he just wanted more PT which the Celtics could not say for sure they would give him.

2. Any fan of this team for years knows Tony is an up and down player.  For everything he did well he would turn around a few minutes later and do something that would get you really really mad.

I wish him the best.  He will be missed in certain situations but imo those situations are few and far between to worry about it to much. 

P.S. Might I remind everyone that in the 08 season Tony was a complete non factor.  matter of fact the only thing I can remember him doing was falling for Billups head fake and sending him to the line to lose that back and forth game against the Pistons in the regular season.

[DinTN]

I think we will miss Tony. He was a nice option on D to shut down the other team's primary scorer.

Who would have thought Delonte would ever be back?

[BballTim]

P.S. Might I remind everyone that in the 08 season Tony was a complete non factor.  matter of fact the only thing I can remember him doing was falling for Billups head fake and sending him to the line to lose that back and forth game against the Pistons in the regular season.

  Do we have a backup wing that will give us what Posey did in 2008?

[CoachBo]

I imagine we'll find someone who can play a little defense - and maybe even not evoke horror every time he touches the basketball.

Huge non-issue, IMHO.

And BTW, I agree with Roy. Player win percentage makes me chuckle.

[More Banners]

In two years, we'll be able to count Tony as one of the many marginal role players who cashes in after one decent season and playoff performance.

He averages more turnovers than steals, and his p----poor offensive production provides no advantage to any reduction in opponent's FG% that his defense may provide.

Yes, we're better off without Casino Tony.

[moiso]

If Tony wanted to leave to play a bigger role elsewhere, that's good for him.  The C's can't offer a huge role for him, but we will miss him.  He is an impact defender- he makes things happen not just with his fundamental defense, but with his special energy that not many players have.  Tony and Daniels aren't even in the same ballpark as far as defense goes.  Tony goes all out and tries to make plays, while Daniels looks like he's sleepwalking out there.  I just didn't see comparable effort between the two.

And if Doc has to play Ray and Paul extra minutes for defensive purposes, that is a very bad thing.  Someone earlier pointed out that yes, Paul and Ray can play good defense- but at their age they have nothing left for the offensive end if they are guarding a good player.  We have seen it time and time again.  And some wonder why Ray couldn't hit a shot in the finals... it's obvious to me.  He had no legs.  I was hoping this would be the year that Ray can finally play some age-appropriate minutes.  It looks that once again that won't happen.

[BballTim]

In two years, we'll be able to count Tony as one of the many marginal role players who cashes in after one decent season and playoff performance.

He averages more turnovers than steals, and his [pee]-poor offensive production provides no advantage to any reduction in opponent's FG% that his defense may provide.

Yes, we're better off without Casino Tony.

  If you're expecting players to average more steals than turnovers, Tony (1.1st/1.2to) fairs much better than PP (1.2/2.3) or RA (0.8/1.6) whose ratios are both almost twice as bad. I also think that if he's able to put a damper on the best offensive player on the opposing team it has a bigger impact on the game than the difference between TA's offense and that of an average backup does.

[manl_lui]

i didn't read the above comments as i was busy with school, so sorry if i repeated anything

but I think Tony was offered a similar contract with the celtics as the Cs were satisfied with his contribution during the playoffs...

Tony thinks he was overshadowed by the big 3 and wanted to shine hence left the Celtics

to be honest i dont think hes starting in memphis anyways, hes not starting over rudy gay, or OJ mayo...

[moiso]

In the 2007-08 season we manage to win a championship without Tony Allen's lockdown defense.He was on the bench but still recovering from injury.He wasn't a factor in the playoffs.Somehow i think we can manage to makeup for his lost.Where he gave you defense off the bench he lacked much offensive punch.If the replacements)are capable of giving more on the offensive end than Tony gave,it should offset it on the defensive end and more.Im sure the player will not be without any defensive skills.   

We won a title without Tony's defense, and we can do it again.  However, 2007-2008 was a long time ago.  Ray and Paul were a lot younger then.  This past year when they had to really compete on defense, their offense suffered. 
Losing Tony isn't the end of the world, but it's definitely going to be a factor.

[More Banners]

In two years, we'll be able to count Tony as one of the many marginal role players who cashes in after one decent season and playoff performance.

He averages more turnovers than steals, and his [pee]-poor offensive production provides no advantage to any reduction in opponent's FG% that his defense may provide.

Yes, we're better off without Casino Tony.

  If you're expecting players to average more steals than turnovers, Tony (1.1st/1.2to) fairs much better than PP (1.2/2.3) or RA (0.8/1.6) whose ratios are both almost twice as bad. I also think that if he's able to put a damper on the best offensive player on the opposing team it has a bigger impact on the game than the difference between TA's offense and that of an average backup does.

Just trying to keep the myth of The Great Tony Allen from getting out of hand.  I don't know if is actual game is improving this offseason (I doubt it), but his reputation around here certainly seems to be on the upswing.  Prediction:  He won't fill out his contract in Memphis, and they'll be eager to dump him on someone else by next summer.

He defends well, but tends to give it back on the other end.  As much as his D gives the team a boost, his TO's give the other team a boost as well.  That was my point.  On balance, that's a net zero; he can neither pass nor shoot, nor make reasonably intelligent decisions with the ball. 

Someone posted to the effect that 4th quarter defense is so important, but who in their right mind would want Tony Allen on the court in the 4th quarter of a close game?  Not this guy...