Breaking Down The Finals:
Portland Trailblazers (Edgar)- Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, Mike Bibby, Manu Ginobili, Brad Miller, Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, Ronny Turiaf, Jrue Holiday, Quinton Ross, Jared Dudley, Fred Jones, Taj Gibson
Toronto Raptors (Rondo2287)-Andre Miller, Francisco Garcia, Ron Artest, Kevin Garnett, Marcus Camby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Michael Finley, JJ Barea, Marco Belinelli, Hakim Warrick, Eric Maynor, Taylor Griffin
Center:
Shaquille O'Neal vs. Marcus Camby / Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Regardless of which center Toronto starts, it's a mismatch in favor of Edgar. Camby gives up 2 inches and over 100 pounds to Shaq; there's no way he can guard him one on one. As for Big Z, there's a reason that Cleveland traded for Shaq and made him their starting center; the Diesel is simply better. As for the thought that Shaq can't guard Big Z on the perimeter, that's a fallacy;
since the 2007 season, Shaq and Z have matched up eight times. In five of those, Shaq has held him to single digits. Advantage: Edgar
Power forward:
Rashard Lewis vs. Kevin Garnett. Yes, I'm predicting that Edgar starts Rashard Lewis. Very few people on the blog like KG more than me. However, as great as KG is, there's one player he struggles with, and that's Rashard.
In the last seven meetings between the two players, Rashard has averaged 23.6 points per game, as opposed to 14.9 for Garnett; only once in those games has KG outscored Rashard, and Rashard has scored 30+ points twice. These aren't empty stats, either; in games where they've gone head-to-head in Boston, Rashard holds a 3-2 edge in terms of victories. Garnett is the better player, but maybe no other player in the league is as hard for him to handle as Rashard Lewis. Advantage: Push (although the stats give this one to Edgar)
Small forward:
Michael Redd vs. Ron Artest. It would also make sense for Edgar to move Manu Ginobili into the starting lineup. I'm predicting he moves Redd to small forward (for reasons explained below), but Manu can play here, as well. In fact, for anybody suggesting that this gives Artest a height advantage, that's simply not true; all three players are 6'6", and Redd has a speed advantage over Artest.
How do Redd and Artest match up?
Redd has outscored him the last six times they've played. In those six games, Redd has gone for 24+ in five of them (and 20 in the other). Artest has scored 11 or fewer points in three of those six games. Advantage: Edgar
Shooting guard:
Manu Ginobili vs. Francisco Garcia / Michael Finley. Obviously, if Ginobili is matched up on Finley, head-to-head matchups aren't going to help us at all. However, it should be clear who the better player is. Finley is a shell of his former self. He's still a good shooter, but that's all he brings to an offense; 90% of his shots are jumpers, the vast majority of which come from spot ups. Manu is younger, quicker, a better penetrator, a better defender, and a better passer. In a down season,
Manu still averaged significantly more points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and free throw attempts per game than Finley did.
As for Garcia, the same thing is true. Even though Garcia averaged more minutes per game,
Ginobili had more points, rebounds, assists, steals, and free throw attempts, with Ginobili averaging fewer personal fouls and a higher eFG%. Advantage: Edgar
Point guard:
Mike Bibby vs. Andre Miller. Over the course of their careers, this matchup has been fairly even, with Bibby scoring slightly more points, and Miller averaging slightly more assists. Both have shot around 40% overall, with Bibby being the much better three point shooter (35.5% against Miller in their careers, vs. 15.0% for Miller). Last season, Miller very slightly got the better of this matchup, with the two players averaging the same number of points (16.0), while Miller led in assists; each had one atrocious game against the other. Advantage: Toronto (slightly)
Bench:
Jermaine O'Neal, Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, Brad Miller, Ronny Turiaf vs. Hakim Warrick, Marcus Camby, Francisco Garcia, Marco Bellinelli, J.J. Barea. I think the backup big men of Miller and J.O. trump Camby and Warrick, by a fairly large margin. Delonte is the best backcourt player on either bench, and Gomes is a matchup problem for Toronto. Toronto does have one of the better benches in the league, but Portland's is still better. Advantage: Edgar
Intangibles:
Toronto is starting four guys who are 33 and older, and their sixth man falls into that category, as well. Portland has one starter (and two players total) who are 33+.
No team has ever won a championship with more than three starters age 33+; the one that came closest was helmed by a "big three" of Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Dennis Rodman (Pipper was 32, however). As strange as it is to say, Portland has a major youth advantage here. Advantage: Edgar
Game plan:
Portland's versatility should give them a big advantage here. While many teams have two bigs that play in the post -- making Portland hesitant to start Rashard Lewis -- all three of Toronto's bigs prefer to play away from the basket. Also, neither Finley nor Artest is a great penetrator at this stage in their career; Finley shoots 90% of his shots from outside, and Artest had one of the lowest shooting percentages on two-pointers in the entire league (only 34.3%). That means that Portland can get away with only Shaq defending the paint. While Andre Miller has the ability to drive, he is a poor perimeter shooter, meaning his man will be able to sag off him. Also, due to Finley's status as a spot-up shooter, Portland will be able to switch coverages from time to time, asking Bibby to cover Finley in short stretches while Manu moves over to stop Miller's penetration.
On the other end, Rashard draws KG away from the hoop, leaving Shaq one-on-one with Big Z in the post. That's not a good matchup for Toronto. KG's great interior defense is mitigated, while Rashard is likely to continue to have success scoring on KG, as noted above. With Big Z as the only big in the paint, Redd and Manu are likely to continuing drive; if Big Z moves over to prevent a drive, Redd/Manu will simply dish to Shaq. While Camby could help shut down some of this penetration, he simply can't guard Shaq without help, meaning Toronto can either concede the matchup, or double Shaq leaving one of Portland's four perimeter shooters open. Bibby will be asked to do little more than get the offense set and then hit open jumpers.
Just looking at how the two rosters are structured, I don't think Toronto can win over a seven game series. Yes, I'm biased, as I helped put this team together, and am essentially Edgar's spokesman. Still, I can't see this series going any other way.
Prediction: Edgar in six.
Topic: 2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future (Read 675692 times)