2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm goin Toronto. Too much defense. Too little defense on the perimeter for Portland. I see major defensive breakdowns on the perimeter when Miller penetrates and only Shaq back there rotating on defense. His best defensive days are long over. I don't like Michael Redd at the 3 defensively either against a much stronger Ron Artest. I think Toronto has enough bodies to throw at Shaq to wear him down and be effective against him offensively with their jumpshots. There isn't a single lineup Portland can throw at Toronto that they can't defend. I see Toronto like that 2001 Detroit team. They'll match you up and frustrate you and frustrate you until you give up and they finally impose their will on you.

1) Ron Artest was one of the very worst players in the entire NBA at two point shots last season, and 90% of Michael Finley's shots were perimeter oriented.  KG and Big Z are also perimeter players.

2) I think there are, in fact, matchups Portland can throw at Toronto that they can't defend.  For instance, the starting lineups as presented are one such matchup.  With Rashard / Redd / Manu all in the lineup, Toronto can't double team Shaq, and a 36 year old Michael Finley will be guarding one of those players.  That's not a great matchup for Toronto.

[Roy Hobbs]

Where does KG and Big Z factor in defensively? How does Bibby do on Miller? from what it looks to me, there is no one in the post for Toronto, which means driving lanes, but then they don't have anyone besides Andre Miller who can get in there.

Right.  Andre Miller is the only one who can drive.  Bibby's sole role will be to cut off penetration, as Miller is a terrible outside shooter.  If Bibby can't handle it, I see Manu sliding over and helping out a lot.

I like Toronto's team, but unfortunately, Portland is a very, very bad matchup for them, in my opinion.

[bucknersrevenge]

I'm goin Toronto. Too much defense. Too little defense on the perimeter for Portland. I see major defensive breakdowns on the perimeter when Miller penetrates and only Shaq back there rotating on defense. His best defensive days are long over. I don't like Michael Redd at the 3 defensively either against a much stronger Ron Artest. I think Toronto has enough bodies to throw at Shaq to wear him down and be effective against him offensively with their jumpshots. There isn't a single lineup Portland can throw at Toronto that they can't defend. I see Toronto like that 2001 Detroit team. They'll match you up and frustrate you and frustrate you until you give up and they finally impose their will on you.

with all respect on your oppinion b
I would not call, Shaq, JO  Brad Miller, turiaf an easy big men rotation to be worn out too.
Seems like youre matching only starting rotations . And if Toronto frustrates a couple of Portland attacks you better think on what will happend in the other side of the basket
yes maybe they will keep portland under 90 but i cant see toronto scoring more than 75 specially if theyre full handed on defense

I do account for all big men but let's be honest. If you're talking about starting Lewis at the 4(which is his best position), you're planning on running the Orlando offense and as such it begins with Shaq down low. Shaq is THE matchup that makes your team work. With all due respect none of the rest of Portland's frontcourt depth should give anyone on Toronto any pause. They're good but none of them have the potential to create the mismatch Shaq might. That said I think Toronto has the size to at least challenge him in the post, give him different looks on defense and on offense exploit his lack of mobility. Both Z and Camby should score at will on pick and pops against Shaq. Each could score 10+. Artest can abuse Red on the drive or in the post and because the post guys are such exceptional jumpshooters they can invert their offense that way. I don't see a scoring problem for Toronto at all. They may not break a 100 every night but they'll score enough to win for sure.

[bucknersrevenge]

I'm goin Toronto. Too much defense. Too little defense on the perimeter for Portland. I see major defensive breakdowns on the perimeter when Miller penetrates and only Shaq back there rotating on defense. His best defensive days are long over. I don't like Michael Redd at the 3 defensively either against a much stronger Ron Artest. I think Toronto has enough bodies to throw at Shaq to wear him down and be effective against him offensively with their jumpshots. There isn't a single lineup Portland can throw at Toronto that they can't defend. I see Toronto like that 2001 Detroit team. They'll match you up and frustrate you and frustrate you until you give up and they finally impose their will on you.

1) Ron Artest was one of the very worst players in the entire NBA at two point shots last season, and 90% of Michael Finley's shots were perimeter oriented.  KG and Big Z are also perimeter players.

2) I think there are, in fact, matchups Portland can throw at Toronto that they can't defend.  For instance, the starting lineups as presented are one such matchup.  With Rashard / Redd / Manu all in the lineup, Toronto can't double team Shaq, and a 36 year old Michael Finley will be guarding one of those players.  That's not a great matchup for Toronto.

and still Ron's size is gonna be a nightmare for Redd who is simply gonna get bullied down low and even if Artest missed he'll be grabbing his own rebounds. Finley's perimeter shooting is a perfect compliment for artest and miller's ability to drive. Once Manu brings the help, the kickout to Finley or Garcia comes. Or even better 1-5 pick and pop against Bibby and Shaq all night=bad combination. The fact that KG and Z are exceptional perimeter shooters is what's gonna expose Shaq's poor defensive ability all night.

I think Z's size and Camby's length will bother Shaq all night and I think they can systematically bring doubles if need be from a different place each time if need be. However he's gonna give up too many points on defense and they'll eventually have to take him out to match up. Once that happens the Orlando offense falters. So yeah still don't see anything Portland can throw out that Toronto can't matchup with.

[Roy Hobbs]

and still Ron's size is gonna be a nightmare for Redd who is simply gonna get bullied down low and even if Artest missed he'll be grabbing his own rebounds. Finley's perimeter shooting is a perfect compliment for artest and miller's ability to drive. Once Manu brings the help, the kickout to Finley or Garcia comes. Or even better 1-5 pick and pop against Bibby and Shaq all night=bad combination. The fact that KG and Z are exceptional perimeter shooters is what's gonna expose Shaq's poor defensive ability all night.

Artest doesn't really drive, and he doesn't really post up.  Artest finished less that 50% of his inside shots last season (he was third worst in that category), and shot 34.3% on two point shots overall (again, third worst).  If he was as good abusing his man as you say he is, those numbers would be a lot better.  Also, as pointed out above, your theory is ignoring "real life".  Redd has outscored Artest the last six times they've played.  In those six games, Redd has gone for 24+ in five of them (and 20 in the other).  Artest has scored 11 or fewer points in three of those six games.

I think Z's size and Camby's length will bother Shaq all night and I think they can systematically bring doubles if need be from a different place each time if need be. However he's gonna give up too many points on defense and they'll eventually have to take him out to match up. Once that happens the Orlando offense falters. So yeah still don't see anything Portland can throw out that Toronto can't matchup with.

I just don't see it like this.  Camby defending Shaq one-on-one is a nightmare scenario.  Shaq has 100+ pounds on him, and two inches of height.  As for Big Z, if he's the defender you say he is, Cleveland never would have traded for Shaq.  Again, this is a situation where, if you're correct, where's the evidence of it happening in real life?

Lastly, I disagree that the Portland offense falters with Shaq out of the game.  With guys like Redd, Manu, Rashard, and Bibby, scoring shouldn't be a problem.

[Rondo2287]

whoah whoah whoah.  First of all I will be having Z covering Shaq.  They have played eachother fairly evenly and With KG and Z on the floor at the same time Shaq is going to have to come away from the basket which he is not a fan of. 

Then I will pull camby off the bench. 

[Rondo2287]

And Lets not use hyperbole here.  We all know that Finley in a wheel chair chasing Redd around the court also in a wheel chair is not as big an advantage as what you suggest.  Unless Redd has one of those racing or Murderball wheelchairs. 

[Roy Hobbs]

And Lets not use hyperbole here.  We all know that Finley in a wheel chair chasing Redd around the court also in a wheel chair is not as big an advantage as what you suggest.  Unless Redd has one of those racing or Murderball wheelchairs. 

I think you're underestimating a 29 year old Redd versus a 36 year old Finley.  Players have ACL surgeries all the time.  Playing in the Finals, Redd will have had almost a year and a half of recovery time.  He'll run circles around Finley, if that's the defensive matchup you go with.

Also, nobody will be "chasing [Finley] around the court".  That's not Finley's game any more.  Over 65% of his shots were spot up jumpers, and he never goes to the hoop.  He's simply not a very tough cover.

(The thought of Redd chasing Finley down in a Murderball wheelchair is fairly amusing, though.)

[Rondo2287]

And Lets not use hyperbole here.  We all know that Finley in a wheel chair chasing Redd around the court also in a wheel chair is not as big an advantage as what you suggest.  Unless Redd has one of those racing or Murderball wheelchairs. 

I think you're underestimating a 29 year old Redd versus a 36 year old Finley.  Players have ACL surgeries all the time.  Playing in the Finals, Redd will have had almost two years of recovery time.  He'll run circles around Finley, if that's the defensive matchup you go with.

Also, nobody will be "chasing [Finley] around the court".  That's not Finley's game any more.  Over 65% of his shots were spot up jumpers, and he never goes to the hoop.  He's simply not a very tough cover.

(The thought of Redd chasing Finley down in a Murderball wheelchair is fairly amusing, though.)

Its a good thing Redd will be covering him then, we all know how good of a defender he is.  And how did those knee surgerys work for TA?

[Roy Hobbs]

And Lets not use hyperbole here.  We all know that Finley in a wheel chair chasing Redd around the court also in a wheel chair is not as big an advantage as what you suggest.  Unless Redd has one of those racing or Murderball wheelchairs. 

I think you're underestimating a 29 year old Redd versus a 36 year old Finley.  Players have ACL surgeries all the time.  Playing in the Finals, Redd will have had almost two years of recovery time.  He'll run circles around Finley, if that's the defensive matchup you go with.

Also, nobody will be "chasing [Finley] around the court".  That's not Finley's game any more.  Over 65% of his shots were spot up jumpers, and he never goes to the hoop.  He's simply not a very tough cover.

(The thought of Redd chasing Finley down in a Murderball wheelchair is fairly amusing, though.)

Its a good thing Redd will be covering him then, we all know how good of a defender he is.  And how did those knee surgerys work for TA?

How'd surgery work for Amare'?  Or Nene'? Or Baron Davis?  Or even Bernard King, way back in the day? Or Al Harrington? Tony Allen is one of the very worst fundamental players in the entire NBA.  His problem isn't athleticism -- he still has that.  It's that 1) he can't shoot, 2) he turns the ball over too much, and 3) he's an idiot.

None of those things apply to Michael Redd.

[Rondo2287]

Well we will see this year how the knees hold up and if he still has the explosiveness to push off when rising up for a jumper. 

[Roy Hobbs]

Well we will see this year how the knees hold up and if he still has the explosiveness to push off when rising up for a jumper. 

I'm pretty sure the surgery didn't take seven years off his career, which is what would need to happen to put him on par with Michael Finley.

Again, elite, all-star players have knee surgery all the time, and come back to be elite, all-star players.  In July of next year, Redd is going to look like the same player he's always been, or very close to it.

[Rondo2287]

Lets hope so because he was certainly one of my favorite players to watch before he went down. 

[Roy Hobbs]

(Por/Tor) Toronto - because in a weaker conference they win more games and get HCA.

Interesting.  I'm not sure I see it that way. 

First, Portland finished with the second best record in the West, Toronto with the third best in the East.  Also, Toronto played in the deepest division in the Fake NBA, with four teams making the playoffs.  Having to play 16 games against Philly, Boston, New Jersey, and New York would have been a struggle.  (Also, of course, if you want to look at the voting, Portland had more first place votes in its conference than Toronto.)

So, I think it's very likely that Portland would have home court advantage over Toronto, based upon the voting.

[Roy Hobbs]

My first post related to the CB Draft '09, I now regret of not having played it but I will not repeat my mistake next year.

(Por/Tor): Portland... First comment on CB Draft... DEFINITELY DOING IT NEXT YEAR!

Come one, come all.  Glad to see new interest for next year!