2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Rondo2287]

Read what I said again, (not saying it like a jerk!) but I said he wouldnt be abused, not that he would outscore either.

And again how many of those games what Z covered by more athletic and quicker defenders while shaq sat on Verejao or whoever the PF was that doesnt have much of an outside shot. 

And I know redd is a good shooter im just saying his scoring edge in the previous matchups will be more than what would be practical in this matchup because of the expected difference in shot volume. 

And out of 31 matchups Before Rashard was teamed with Dwight Howard, Rashard outscored KG 5 times.  And out of 36 matchups Rashard has out rebounded KG once.  So I dunno I would contribute alot of it to Dwight Howard, or something more about that Magic matchup rather than Lewis himself

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's another question, Rondo.  How do you shut down the Portland offense?

You're basically forced to start Big Z, and have to cover Shaq one-on-one, correct?

If you do that, what prevents either Redd or Manu from continually driving?  Z is slow and not a very good interior defender.  Manu and Redd are both very good dribblers and penetration.  Can you deny their penetration?  As I see it, you can't send somebody over to help on either player, because they'll simply pass the ball to whoever is open.  So, why won't they continually drive the middle, attempting to either score at the rim or pick up fouls on Big Z?

Also, if Big Z gets in foul trouble, your entire defense breaks down, correct?

[Rondo2287]

no response to the KG Rashard point?

[Roy Hobbs]

no response to the KG Rashard point?

In Seattle, Rashard played SF.  During that time, he wasn't really matched up on KG one-on-one, except toward the end of his time there.  Why, then, would we look at how KG did against Seattle, when Rashard wasn't guarding him?  Plus, what good is it looking at how players matched up 5 and 10 years ago?  If you'd like me to base my analysis of the Shaq / Big Z matchup on ancient history, I'm more than happy to do so.  However, I haven't done so; I've confined my discussion to the past three seasons.

In Orlando, though, Rashard has been a power forward almost exclusively.  He's directly matched up with KG, as we've all seen.  During that time, he's consistently outscored KG, and his teams have won more games.

[indeedproceed]

no response to the KG Rashard point?

In Seattle, Rashard played SF.  During that time, he wasn't really matched up on KG one-on-one, except toward the end of his time there.  Why, then, would we look at how KG did against Seattle, when Rashard wasn't guarding him?  Plus, what good is it looking at how players matched up 5 and 10 years ago?  If you'd like me to base my analysis of the Shaq / Big Z matchup on ancient history, I'm more than happy to do so.

In Orlando, though, Rashard has been a power forward almost exclusively.  He's directly matched up with KG, as we've all seen.  During that time, he's consistently outscored KG, and his teams have won more games.

KG is better than Rashard and he defends him incredibly well, to the point of almost completely taking him out of the game.

[Rondo2287]

And we all know with Shaq sitting down low he will be clogging the lane for driving guards. And I think Z averaged over two blocked shots last year(Not positive) but the guy is 7+ feet.  I feel that Ron should do a decent job slowing Manu's penetration and im not sure Redd will be doing much driving after his knee surgery.  Im sure he would much prefer to spot up from the outside.  

And lets say they are driving successully then that means Shaq isnt getting the ball who is one of the most prolific post scorers in NBA history so I will take my chances if you want to keep the ball out of Shaqs hands while he is playing and waste the minutes of the the best post threat Portland has.  

And Im just saying outscored in 26 out of 31 games is a pretty strong sample size.  And as I recall at that point in his career KG was playing some SF as well.  And im not disregarding the recent history Roy,  I was merely saying that the constant to me seems to be dwight howard.  

[Roy Hobbs]

no response to the KG Rashard point?

In Seattle, Rashard played SF.  During that time, he wasn't really matched up on KG one-on-one, except toward the end of his time there.  Why, then, would we look at how KG did against Seattle, when Rashard wasn't guarding him?  Plus, what good is it looking at how players matched up 5 and 10 years ago?  If you'd like me to base my analysis of the Shaq / Big Z matchup on ancient history, I'm more than happy to do so.

In Orlando, though, Rashard has been a power forward almost exclusively.  He's directly matched up with KG, as we've all seen.  During that time, he's consistently outscored KG, and his teams have won more games.

KG is better than Rashard and he defends him incredibly well, to the point of almost completely taking him out of the game.

What is this based upon, IP?  What we all wish was true?

Here are Lewis' point totals against KG in Boston:  22, 15, 30, 20, 21

How does KG defend him incredibly well and take him out of his game, when Rashard's averaging 21.6 points per game on 50.0% shooting / 37.5% 3PT shooting against him?

[indeedproceed]

He's the best big man defender in the game, and nobody knows how Garnett will defend Lewis in the playoffs. I think its a massacre. Garnett will really turn it up, like all great vets do. Lewis is in for a surprise.

[Roy Hobbs]

And we all know with Shaq sitting down low he will be clogging the lane for driving guards. And I think Z averaged over two blocked shots last year(Not positive) but the guy is 7+ feet.  I feel that Ron should do a decent job slowing Manu's penetration and im not sure Redd will be doing much driving after his knee surgery.  Im sure he would much prefer to spot up from the outside.  

Having one "lane clogging" big doesn't prevent teams from driving.  If it did, teams would never be able to drive.  Yet, with Shaq beside them, Penny Hardaway, Kobe, and D. Wade have all gotten to the rim at will.  And for the record, Big Z averaged 1.3 blocks per game last season.

And lets say they are driving successully then that means Shaq isnt getting the ball who is one of the most prolific post scorers in NBA history so I will take my chances if you want to keep the ball out of Shaqs hands while he is playing and waste the minutes of the the best post threat Portland has.

Two things here:  First, offense's aren't all or nothing.  It's not "we'll drive every time" or "we'll post up every time".  Portland can post up, shoot, or drive.  Second, didn't you just admit that Shaq is a dominant post scorer?  Haven't you been trying to somehow say that isn't true? 

And Im just saying outscored in 26 out of 31 games is a pretty strong sample size.  And as I recall at that point in his career KG was playing some SF as well.  And im not disregarding the recent history Roy,  I was merely saying that the constant to me seems to be dwight howard.  

I haven't verified your numbers, but again, 1) it doesn't make sense to me to look at ancient history, and 2) it doesn't make sense to me to look at matchups when KG was playing PF and Rashard was playing SF.  And again, for the record, KG hasn't consistently split his time at SF in probably 10 years.

Rashard has dominated KG scoring-wise the last three seasons, including the last two where they were matched up head-to-head in Boston.

[Roy Hobbs]

He's the best big man defender in the game, and nobody knows how Garnett will defend Lewis in the playoffs. I think its a massacre. Garnett will really turn it up, like all great vets do. Lewis is in for a surprise.

Haha.  Well, we as Celtics fans can certainly hope.

[indeedproceed]

He's the best big man defender in the game, and nobody knows how Garnett will defend Lewis in the playoffs. I think its a massacre. Garnett will really turn it up, like all great vets do. Lewis is in for a surprise.

Haha.  Well, we as Celtics fans can certainly hope.

Oh no, Roy. We KNOW.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StejdQWmb50&feature=PlayList&p=60CEB4093730307D&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=28

[Roy Hobbs]

He's the best big man defender in the game, and nobody knows how Garnett will defend Lewis in the playoffs. I think its a massacre. Garnett will really turn it up, like all great vets do. Lewis is in for a surprise.

Haha.  Well, we as Celtics fans can certainly hope.

Oh no, Roy. We KNOW.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StejdQWmb50&feature=PlayList&p=60CEB4093730307D&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=28

Good thing Rashard Lewis didn't play for the Lakers.

[indeedproceed]

Roy, some things transcend statistics. We both know that.

[Rondo2287]

And we all know with Shaq sitting down low he will be clogging the lane for driving guards. And I think Z averaged over two blocked shots last year(Not positive) but the guy is 7+ feet.  I feel that Ron should do a decent job slowing Manu's penetration and im not sure Redd will be doing much driving after his knee surgery.  Im sure he would much prefer to spot up from the outside.  

Having one "lane clogging" big doesn't prevent teams from driving.  If it did, teams would never be able to drive.  Yet, with Shaq beside them, Penny Hardaway, Kobe, and D. Wade have all gotten to the rim at will.  And for the record, Big Z averaged 1.3 blocks per game last season.

And lets say they are driving successully then that means Shaq isnt getting the ball who is one of the most prolific post scorers in NBA history so I will take my chances if you want to keep the ball out of Shaqs hands while he is playing and waste the minutes of the the best post threat Portland has.

Two things here:  First, offense's aren't all or nothing.  It's not "we'll drive every time" or "we'll post up every time".  Portland can post up, shoot, or drive.  Second, didn't you just admit that Shaq is a dominant post scorer?  Haven't you been trying to somehow say that isn't true? 

And Im just saying outscored in 26 out of 31 games is a pretty strong sample size.  And as I recall at that point in his career KG was playing some SF as well.  And im not disregarding the recent history Roy,  I was merely saying that the constant to me seems to be dwight howard.  

I haven't verified your numbers, but again, 1) it doesn't make sense to me to look at ancient history, and 2) it doesn't make sense to me to look at matchups when KG was playing PF and Rashard was playing SF.  And again, for the record, KG hasn't consistently split his time at SF in probably 10 years.

Rashard has dominated KG scoring-wise the last three seasons, including the last two where they were matched up head-to-head in Boston.

I have never once said shaq was not a dominant post scorer. Im saying in his current state with the minutes that he can play at his age, and with the way that Z and Shaq have played recently I think Z has been more effective defending him not that he has slowed down.  

And im not arguing that Rashard has scored more than KG Im arguing why, and why I think this will be different this time around.  

[Roy Hobbs]

And im not arguing that Rashard has scored more than KG Im arguing why, and why I think this will be different this time around.  

I guess I don't understand your argument, other than "Dwight Howard".

When playing Orlando, KG has defended Lewis 1-on-1, and Lewis has defended KG 1-on-1.  It's not like Howard has been defending KG, or KG has been defending Howard.

How is that different in this series?  KG will be playing Lewis, and Lewis will be playing KG.  I think, then, that it's relevant to look at matchups when they've gone head to head in similar roles.

KG is a great defender.  Unfortunately, some of that greatness is lessened when he has to defend his man behind the three point line.