2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Edgar]

Thats fine but its pointless to bring up in an argument about how your bench is better than mine then.  And I guess you can say Garcia is a SF but his playing time at the SG position would prove otherwise

JO, Miller, Gomes, Turiaf >> Warrick and Camby

And Roy he isnt my primary backup PF because with Z starting I will be able to bring Camby off the bench to spell both Z and KG.  But sure you can say hes frail which im sure most people would disagree with.  KG is skinny too and I doubt most people would call him frail. I mean that just isnt true, lets be honest here. 

So whos your backup center...warrick?? or Z will play all game too.
Dont try to sell the Sheed will backup both positions because thats why we sign BBD after all.

http://And im not going to get into who is a better man to man defender. I have watched Camby play alot as a closet Clippers fan, and I think he is great.  And there are no stats to back up either of our arguments so ya, I dont think its worth it.

Hes a gambler with lengh who block or used too block a lot of shots who is declining

And why doesnt it work that, way, this is the finals.  After watching KG you really think he is going to let a coach take him out of a close game in the finals just because he is getting up there in minutes?

maybe not, but last time he did that results were pretty bad, and its imposible to keep the pace for seven games against elite competition. Even turiaf can handle a tired KG.

And I didnt mean to matchup him up with gomes, I thought edgar was just talking bench as a whole, not focussing on individual matchups

Yes I was talking about bench as a whole and Portlands is definetly superior

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't think so, Rondo.  Here's how DraftExpress described his man-to-man defense (and this is prior to last season, when he declined):

Will run into trouble when matched up against comparably sized players with better strength. Gets the vast majority of his blocks from the weak-side. . . .

Not as good on the ball as he is off it. Gets backed down in the post fairly easily. . . .
 
Has a tendency to chase blocks aimlessly rather than play fundamentally sound defense. Has been criticized at times with being more concerned with his defensive stats than about getting stops. Will leaves his matchup wide open on the perimeter occasionally, give up position deep in the paint, and not always put in a great effort closing out shooters.

And really?  You're arguing that KG is going to play 48 minutes per game?  I just can't see that happening.  In 2008, he averaged around 38 minutes per game in the Finals.  If you followed the same structure, that's 10 minutes per game where KG isn't in there.

[Rondo2287]

Ok, Roy, I said Camby would be coming off the bench to spell both Kg and Z because he is capable of playing both positions, so I dont know where the KG playing 48 minutes comes from.  And I recognize Camby can get backed down, so im lucky that your team doenst really have much of a post threat besides Shaq who will be covered by Z. 

[Kwhit10]

He could have Camby, KG, and Big Z all play 32 minutes each to occupy the PF and C positions.

[Roy Hobbs]

He could have Camby, KG, and Big Z all play 32 minutes each to occupy the PF and C positions.

If they do, though, at times they're going to be mismatched against bigger, stronger players.  Camby can't guard Shaq inside, but he can't guard Rashard on the perimeter, either, for instance.

[Edgar]

Ok, Roy, I said Camby would be coming off the bench to spell both Kg and Z because he is capable of playing both positions, so I dont know where the KG playing 48 minutes comes from.  And I recognize Camby can get backed down, so im lucky that your team doenst really have much of a post threat besides Shaq who will be covered by Z. 

Well Brad Miller scores .515 to .611 close to the basket as refered on hotspots, so hes not that bad under. hes more like underrater there just because he loves to shoot too.

[Edgar]

He could have Camby, KG, and Big Z all play 32 minutes each to occupy the PF and C positions.

and then he will die by the 3.

[Rondo2287]

He could have Camby, KG, and Big Z all play 32 minutes each to occupy the PF and C positions.

If they do, though, at times they're going to be mismatched against bigger, stronger players.  Camby can't guard Shaq inside, but he can't guard Rashard on the perimeter, either, for instance.

I dunno Roy according to my source,
"Camby is a tremendous presence in the post and even occasionally playing D out on the wing. He will defend the lane, rebound, block about three shots a game, tip-in anything around the cylinder and can even man up on your 2-guard, if you put one of Carmelo’s guns to his head. He’s one of the few players that, even at 6-10 or 6-11, was ready to play in the NBA before he had an NBA body. He was that good of a defender"

And again, Z will guard Shaq. Camby can defend any other big man on your team.  

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's my question, Rondo (and it's one asked by IP previously, which was never answered):  Where does your scoring come from?

Let's assume the following:

Big Z limits Shaq, but ultimately is outscored by him
KG limits Rashard, but ultimately is outscored by him
Artest limits Redd, but ultimately is outscored by him
Finley can't keep up with Manu, and is outscored by him
Miller outscores Bibby, slightly
Toronto's bench limits Portlands bench, but ultimately is outscored by it

How, then, is Toronto going to win that series?  Do you expect a huge role reversal in the KG / Rashard battles of recent years?  Why should we expect that?  Do you think Artest dominates Redd?  Again, why should (or even could) we assume that?

There's no way Toronto can outscore Portland, whether the final score ends up being 90 - 85 or 120 - 115.  Portland just owns too many of the mismatches, and the fact that neither one of your primary wings is good inside the three point line is a real limiting factor for you.

[Rondo2287]

I Think Z will outscore shaq. In their previous matchups there was a pf next to Z that couldnt shoot outside which meant Shaq could sit in the paint on that PF on defense.  Now he has to play outside, which means he will expend more energy on defense trying to adjust to Z's game instead of sitting under the rim where he is comfortable. 

The rest of your matchups are interesting points but based on those your team would score probaly 175 points.  There are a limited amount of shots in a game as you know.  You have redd who outscores people by taking a great deal of shots. 

You have Rashard who is used to getting wide open outside looks because teams have to double down on Dwight.  I dont think My team has to do that which means KG can play tighter on Rashard, which is why I think he would outscore him which is the difference than there past matchups. 

I plan on having finley on Redd by the way and artest on Manu.  I think Since Redd is more of a perimeter player, Finley would be better at playin him on defense.  And Artest can keep up with Manu.

And I disagree, I think my bench is more Offensiveley gifted than Portlands. 

that is how I will win the series

[Roy Hobbs]

He could have Camby, KG, and Big Z all play 32 minutes each to occupy the PF and C positions.

If they do, though, at times they're going to be mismatched against bigger, stronger players.  Camby can't guard Shaq inside, but he can't guard Rashard on the perimeter, either, for instance.

I dunno Roy according to my source,
"Camby is a tremendous presence in the post and even occasionally playing D out on the wing. He will defend the lane, rebound, block about three shots a game, tip-in anything around the cylinder and can even man up on your 2-guard, if you put one of Carmelo’s guns to his head. He’s one of the few players that, even at 6-10 or 6-11, was ready to play in the NBA before he had an NBA body. He was that good of a defender"

And again, Z will guard Shaq. Camby can defend any other big man on your team.  

I'm not sure that SLAM is the best source for player analysis.  They're a pretty weak publication (which should be shown by the fact that they advocate Camby defending 2-guards.)

[Rondo2287]

Haha I know, I just liked the point about Carmello having multiple guns

[Roy Hobbs]

First, there's just no way on God's green earth that Z outscores Shaq over a seven game series.  It's just not going to happen, and if that's what you're hanging your hat on, you're in trouble.  If Big Z was as good as you say he is, he 1) wouldn't have been replaced in the starting lineup by Shaq, and 2) wouldn't be being shopped around the league as an expiring contract.

You have redd who outscores people by taking a great deal of shots. 

Michael Redd is one of the most efficient outside shooters in the NBA.  His eFG% last season was .519, and his true shooting was .566.  He outscores people because he's an elite shooter and an excellent penetrator.

You have Rashard who is used to getting wide open outside looks because teams have to double down on Dwight.  I dont think My team has to do that which means KG can play tighter on Rashard, which is why I think he would outscore him which is the difference than there past matchups. 

You might be able to see that on RealGM, but not on a Celtics site.  The Celtics don't double team Dwight Howard.  Rather, they play him one-on-one, because Perk is a good post defender.  So, try again on why Rashard is outscoring KG by about 9 points per game in the last seven, and Orlando has won more games since KG came to Boston.

I plan on having finley on Redd by the way and artest on Manu.  I think Since Redd is more of a perimeter player, Finley would be better at playin him on defense.  And Artest can keep up with Manu.

Either way, Finley is going to get abused.

And I disagree, I think my bench is more Offensiveley gifted than Portlands. 

And on that, I think you're once again mistaken.

[Rondo2287]

OK, I dont think Finley will get abused, I think you are extremely mistaken.  Im not sure a guy would start for the Spurs, one of the most defensively sound teams in the NBA if he would be abused on the defensive end.  It just doesnt really add up to me. 

And I think there is a very strong chance that given the same minutes Z outscores Shaq.  We all know that he wont play defense away from the basket and Ill take Z taking open midrange jumpers every day of the week. 

And over the course of his career Redd is averaging well over 1000 FG attempts.  Which is my issue, not shooting percentage but sheer volume of shots taken which if you look at past matchups you cant possibly think that he will score as much on your team as he did for the Bucks. 

And while your right my bench being better offensively may be a stretch I dont think the difference is as big as you are depicting. 

And while they played Dwight straight up this past season because they had no choice I remember many times where they doubled down on Dwight in the past

[Roy Hobbs]

OK, I dont think Finley will get abused, I think you are extremely mistaken.  Im not sure a guy would start for the Spurs, one of the most defensively sound teams in the NBA if he would be abused on the defensive end.  It just doesnt really add up to me. 

You honestly don't think Michael Finley would be outscored by Manu Ginobili or Michael Redd?  Based upon what?

And I think there is a very strong chance that given the same minutes Z outscores Shaq.  We all know that he wont play defense away from the basket and Ill take Z taking open midrange jumpers every day of the week. 

I guess we'll agree to disagree. In five out of the last eight matchups, Big Z has scored 8 or fewer points.  In their careers (18 games H2H) Big Z has never held Shaq to single digits.  Who was the one defending Big Z, the magnificent defender Amare' Stoudemire? 

And over the course of his career Redd is averaging well over 1000 FG attempts.  Which is my issue, not shooting percentage but sheer volume of shots taken which if you look at past matchups you cant possibly think that he will score as much on your team as he did for the Bucks.

Sure, Redd takes a lot of shots.  He also makes a lot of shots, because he's a great shooter and all-around scorer.

And while your right my bench being better offensively may be a stretch I dont think the difference is as big as you are depicting. 

Well, at least you admit it.

And while they played Dwight straight up this past season because they had no choice I remember many times where they doubled down on Dwight in the past

I can't remember a lot of times when the Celts were consistently double-teaming Howard, especially with Perk in the game.  Something else has to explain Rashard's scoring edge.  I think it's a simple as, Rashard is a bad matchup for KG.